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Rookie Tip - Defensive Lineman
I see a lot of talk on our boards about "so-and-so" the DL and how they are good for a couple of weeks and then disappear. No matter how good they are, even guys like Strahan get their sacks in bunches. You just have to be patient and keep starting your talented DE/DL and wait for them to go on their tear. The only truly consistent DL are DTs on teams near the bottom of the league in TOP.
Please look at Shawn Culcasi's IDP strength of schedule, and Clayton Gray's strength of schedule, if you have some tough lineup choices to make. I like to look at the offense SOS's, and play LBs on teams that face strong running teams and DBs/DLs on teams that face strong passing ones.
If you have a tie between your #2 and #3 LB or #2 LB and #2 DB, I highly recommend that you go and read our Rushing and Passing matchups. When in doubt, start your LBs/SSs/DBs that are playing against RBs we say that have good or great matchups, and DBs that are playing against WRs that have good or great matchups. They will be on the field a long time, increasing your odds for high tackle/PD/INT numbers. Questions, comments, venting? Email [email protected] .
Rookie Watch
DE Kevin Williams MIN
He is still playing well, getting 8-3-2 1 PD the past three weeks.
DE Calvin Pace ARI
Pace has been a solid #2 DL lately, getting 8-2-1 1 FR.
SLB Lance Briggs CHI
He is still playing at a high level, making more plays and tackles than Urlacher.
SLB Boss Bailey DET
Champ's little (?!) brother is tearing it up now that he has gotten a full-time starting gig. He is almost a #1 LB over the past three weeks, with 19-2-1.5 3PDs.
CB Charles Tillman CHI
Tillman has played well while subbing for other injured Bears. Last week he got 3 solos and 2 PDs.
TOP watch
Definition: When I say "team x -3", I mean that that team is losing that many minutes of Time Of Possession (TOP) to their opponent this week. I compare the year to date TOP of every team to get the numbers below.
Jaguars -4, Redskins -3, Bears -3, Falcons -3, Jets -3 (but this number is weak because of the return of Pennington and the Jets O resurgence), Chargers -3, Seahawks/Lions ~ (nearly identical in TOP, but I seriously doubt the Lions are going to do that well. I'd say that they wind up -3), Raiders -3.
Blitz Packages
Defensive Lineman
DE Jason Taylor MIA
He gets a Raven OL that is giving up exactly three sacks per game. He and his line mates should get 2-4 sacks.
Anthony Weaver/Ravens DL
They face a Dolphins OL that is giving up a lot of sacks and pressure on their QB. Griese has shown he can't handle that kind of pressure well, so look for 2-4 sacks for Weaver and his DL.
DE Alex Brown/Bears DL
The Rams are surrendering over three sacks per game. Coupled with the Bears' offensive woes, Brown and the other DL have good odds to gets 2-3 sacks and 4-5 tackles.
DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila GB
KGB seems to have returned to his inconsistent 2001 form. I am benching him in my keeper league after he nearly cost me a victory. However, this week he does get a good shot at a Tampa OL that is letting too much pressure on to QB Johnson. He merits a one-week play.
DE Julius Peppers CAR
This has been a bizarre world kind of year, where your studs disappear (LB Urlacher, WR Driver), and vets like Willie Whitehead become solid starters. Peppers is suffering through a sophomore slump, much as Kearse did. He will have his moments, but is really a #2 DL until he shows signs of consistency.
DE Grant Wistrom STL
Wistrom is riding a hot streak, culminating in last weeks' 7-1-1 outing. Ride it while you can.
DE Kalimba Edwards DET/Lions DL
Too bad Porcher is banged up. The Lions get a good chance for sacks this week against a Seahawk line that has shown itself vulnerable. 2-3 sacks should be what they get, but I think this is a risky play since the Lions pass rush has been so sporadic. But I like to tell you about all the trends, and the trend is in their favor for Edwards and the Lions this week.
Tyler Brayton/Chris Cooper/Raiders DL
They get a shot at a Viking OL that has suddenly looked pretty average. These make a nice spot play this week.
Linebackers
Browns LBs
These guys are giving their owners ulcers trying to augur which one is going to be the stud. This week, after reappearing out of thin air like a Star Trek away team, is your current stud Andra Davis at 11-2-3. Of the bunch, I believe that Davis and Taylor will be your most consistent starters, since they are the MLB and WLB, respectively. Due to their risk, they are #2/borderline #1 LBs.
OLB Jason Gildon PIT
He had a super week, but don't jump on his bandwagon yet.
ILB Chris Draft ATL
Brooking gets the headlines, but Draft has been the better performer. The past three weeks, draft has 20-4-1.
MLB Tommy Hendricks MIA
I have always wondered if anyone else can do what Zach Thomas does in Miami's scheme. I guess the answer is a resounding YES! The three year vet got 14-4-0 in his first outing. Get him, and use him, while you can.
WLB Jessie Armstead WAS
After starting out the year like a house afire, Armstead has cooled off considerably. He is an every week starter since he could explode any week, as a #2 contributor. I think his age is catching up with him and he is getting gassed this late in the season.
Akin Ayodele/Mike Peterson JAX
They had great weeks last week, and the TOP favors them again this week. 9-12 tackles are what I am forecasting.
MLB Ron McKinnon ARI
He isn't setting the world on fire, but he has been on of the "journeyman" LBs I like to use on my teams. He is averaging 4-2-0, but this past week nailed 5-4-0 1FR.
Defensive Backs
CB Pat Surtain/Dolphin DBs
Surtain and company should get 1-2 INTs, given the amount of pressure I expect QB Wright to be under.
CB Troy Vincent/Eagle DBs
Kerry Collins has been throwing a lot of picks since opposing defenses have keyed on their suspect OL and gotten pressure on him. If the Eagles can do this (no mean feat since their own pass rush has been pretty pathetic lately), Vincent and the Eagles should get 1-2 interceptions.
CB Chris McAlister/Ravens DBs
With the pressure Griese will be getting all day, I expect the Ravens to get 1-2 picks from either tipped balls or bad decisions.
CB Charles Tillman/Bears DBs
The trend shows that the Bears will be able to bring pressure on Marc Bulger this week. That's a good sign for Tillman and the Bears DBs in the interception department.
FS Roy Williams DAL
Hey is turning into one of those players that you hear about every Sunday as being "a great player" by the bobbleheads in the booth. However since DAL is not struggling on offense as much anymore, his fantasy value is much reduced. Over the last three weeks he is not a starting caliber DB. If you are not in a keeper/dynasty league, move him for whatever name value you can if you are frustrated. I think that DAL's schedule will get tougher now, and that he will wind up being a #2 level starter down the stretch.
Donovin Daruis/Rashean Mathis JAX
This week should be another good one for these two. The TOP shows a strong trend for them to perform well, and should hit 6-9 tackles.
Darren Sharper GB
Sharper is an every week player regardless, but this week, if the indicators stay true, he and his secondary-mates have an excellent shot at getting a pick or two.
CB Otis Smith/Lion DBs
Here's my risk play of the week. IF the Lions can bring the heat on Bulger, AND he follows his trend, then the Lions SHOULD get a couple of picks.
Good luck!
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