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Blitz Package - Week 9

I would like to know any comments or suggestions you have about my column. I want to take advantage of the fast response time the internet has (over, say, magazines), so that I can bring you a quality, useful column. Based on the time I have available this year, I may not immediately act upon it, but I would like to hear it. My email is available below. Thanks!

If you have a tie between your #2 and #3 LB or #2 LB and #2 DB, I highly recommend that you go and read our Rushing and Passing matchups. When in doubt, start your LBs/SSs/DBs that are playing against RBs we say that have good or great matchups, and DBs that are playing against WRs that have good or great matchups. They will be on the field a long time, increasing your odds for high tackle/PD/INT numbers. Questions? Email [email protected]

Rookie Watch

DT Ty Warren NE
This time of year it is always hard to talk about rookies, since most of them have already made themselves known. But one that you may not have heard of outside the Foxboro area is Warren. In his first two starts, Warren has 9-4-2. He is as hot as they come.

TOP watch

Jets -4.5, 49ers -4, Seattle -3, Redskins -3, New Orleans -3, Cards-2 (but I expect Cincy to have an easier time than their TOP match suggests). Oakland and Detroit are about equal in TOP, but I expect Lion IDPs to have a great day since Oakland should be able to run their offense at will, in addition to the mobile threat QB Tuiasasopo presents.

Blitz Packages

Bye teams: Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Titans (One more week of byes left)

Defensive Lineman

DE Jason Taylor MIA
The fish DL has been getting a lot of pressure and sacks lately, and Taylor has finally showed signs of life after hibernating all year. But he is likely to go back into his cave this week against the Colts. They have not given up a single sack the past three weeks. He's a stud, but don't be surprised if he busts your flush this week.

DE Patrick Kerney ATL
This is a risky play because the Falcons DL is generally impotent. But the fact is, the Eagles are allowing a lot of pressure and sacks on McNabb (11 over the past three weeks), and Kerney has the ability to cause problems. If you need a more consistent play I wouldn't start him, but the matchup is too good to ignore.

DT Ty Warren / DT Richard Seymour NE
These two are En Fuego right now and they catch a Broncos OL at a bad time for them due to the uncertainty of their QB situation. Bronco opponents can afford to stack the box, pin their ears back and dare…Danny Kannell, to beat them. And the Broncos are giving up 3 sacks/game. These guys have a nice matchup this week.

DE Greg Ellis DAL
Ellis benefits from matching up against the porous Redskin OL. He should get at least one sack, and maybe even three, this week.

Linebackers

MLB Earl Holmes DET
The Raiders should easily roll up the injury-riddled Lions this week. Holmes will be busy chasing down Garner and assisting with Tuiasasopo. Figure 7-10 tackles.

WLB Sam Cowart/MLB Marvin Jones NYJ
The TOP favors the Giants by a monstrous 4.5 minutes. I think Cowart will hit 10-13 tackles, and Jones 9-12. The one fly in the ointment is that Pennington is back at the helm, and if Reid gets any kind of clue and keeps starting Buckhalter, so this could throw off the TOP to this point.

MLB Ron McKinnon/ OLB Ray Thompson ARI
My TOP watch states that it only favors Cincy by 2 minutes. However, the Bengals have enough offense to make this much wider. Plus, the defense should be able to handle the Cards. This makes the LBs good starts this week against Dillon/Jordan. McKinnon is a nice spot play at 7-10 tackles, and Thompson at 6-9.

Julian Peterson/Derek Smith/49ers
The TOP favors the Rams by a generous 4 minutes, which could get even more lopsided now that Garcia is out.. One of these guys is going to be huge, and I am guessing Peterson since he is the most productive one to date. Give him 9-12 tackles, and Smith 7-10.

Defensive Backs

CB Terrance Shaw/FS Rod Woodson/Raider DBs
For one week, the Raiders will look like the team that went to the superbowl. Harrington has one of the worst TD/INT ratios going into this week (only Brees is worse).

CB Ty Law/FS Eugene Wilson NE
Thanks to the pressure their DL should be able to mount, the Patriot secondary is ripe to get 2-3 picks this week.

FS Will Demps/CB Chris McAlister/Ravens DBs
Rookie Byron Leftwich is in town, and he's averaging two picks per game.

FS Brian Walker DET
Walker will have a full plate against Tuiasasopo and Garner. I am figuring 3-4 tackles and 3-4 assists.

CB Ray Mickens/CB Aaron Beasley/Jets DBs
Kerry Collins has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns lately. This week the Jets draw him and his 2+ INTs/per week.

CB Chad Scott/FS Brent Alexander/Steelers DBs
Matt Hasselbeck has thrown just as many scores as picks (5). The Seahawks are allowing a lot of sacks, so this week the odds are good that the Steeler DBs will get 2-3 picks/turnovers.

CB Jerry Azumah/ FS Mike Brown CHI
The Bears face Drew Brees this week, he of the 0 TDs / 4Picks the last three weeks. In addition, the Chargers are allowing over three sacks per game. Facing that kind of pressure, 1-3 picks is not out of the question for Mr. Brees, and the Bears secondary will benefit.

CB Quentin Jammer/FS Jerry Wilson SD
The Bears have also been surrendering a lot of sacks. The Chargers have a better DL than the Bears, and will definitely bring the lumber to concussion boy Chris Chandler. 1-3 picks is also not unforeseeable, and God help the Bears if Chandler gets dinged and either Kordell or Grossman goes in.

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