Wood's Thoughts:

"This is the year." By now, I hope Zereoue has that tattooed on his arm because he's been hearing it for what seems like an eon already. Each off-season begins speculation that Amos if finally ready to emerge out of Jerome Bettis' shadow and become the home run threat the Pittsburgh rushing offense has so desperately needed. Yet, for a myriad of reasons it never happens.

This year looks to be different, at least at the outset. Although Jerome Bettis is in camp, looking "fitter than ever" Coach Cowher has named Zero the starting RB for opening day; citing a 'gut feeling'. There's no reason to think that this means Zereoue will get the vast majority of the carries; but it is reason to think he'll get more carries than Bettis on a game-to-game situation.

The question you have to ask yourself is, even if Zero gets the job full time (because of a Bettis injury), will he likely emerge as a fantasy stud? I'm not sure his performance history supports such an optimistic view. Consider:

• Zero was stopped behind the line of scrimmage 14% of the time last year, the sixth worst percentage in the league. Making matters worse, he had only 13% of his runs go for "big plays" (i.e., rushed of 10 yards or more). His net ratio (-1%) ranks way below the vast majority of other fantasy caliber backs.
• Amos averaged a paltry 3.9 YPC last season. Say what you will about the Steelers offensive line last year, but the team averaged 4.14 yards per carry, better than Zero. Furthermore, Zero had three 100+ yard games last season, none of which he managed to average better than 4.0 YPC. Another concern, he got 10+ carries in 8 games yet scored in only two games. Four touchdowns in 235 touches do nothing to suggest he's got what it takes to be a game breaker.
• He's scored six touchdowns in a four year career, in 359 touches. That's an average of 60 touches per touchdown, an obscenely bad ratio, particularly for a team that has had such a potent offensive line and rush offense during his career. Meanwhile, in Bettis' Pittsburgh tenure, he has scored 51 times in 2179 touches, or every 43 touches.
  

Positives

• Developed into an excellent receiver last year, will factor into the passing game regardless of Bettis' health
• Pittsburgh's revamped offensive line should create better running lanes for Bettis and Zero this year
• Zero is fast enough to break big gains frequently
  

Negatives

• Must continue to play second fiddle until Bettis retires or gets injured
• Tendency to dance around too much, witness his getting stopped behind the line of scrimmage more than 10% of the time
• Showed a tendency to wear down with heavy carries, may not be able to produce at a high level with a full time workload

Final Thoughts

In my eyes, Zereoue is one of the riskiest picks in the draft this year. He's being drafted in the group of RBs who aren't undisputed starters on their teams this year. Conventional wisdom appears to be that all Zero needs is opportunity, yet I would suggest that in the limited opportunities he's enjoyed, he's largely dropped the ball. Yes, Bettis is getting on in his age, but he currently is practicing with as much enthusiasm and commitment as anyone on the Steelers roster. For Zero to return value from his average draft position, A LOT of things have to fall into place. The offensive line has to gel. Bettis has to be hurt or accept his newly acquired role as a non-starter. Zero has to be as talented as some expect. He has to avoid the nagging injuries which befall him now and then. I would absolutely avoid Zero as a starting fantasy RB this year, and only consider him as an RB3 if you can draft him in the mid to late rounds. Draft accordingly.

Tremblay's Thoughts:

Discussions about Amos Zereoue often evolve into discussions about Jerome Bettis, and with good reason: the biggest obstacle between Zereoue and fantasy success is the Bus.

On his own merits, Zereoue is a quick back with excellent balance and some big-play ability. He is an above-average receiver out of the backfield and a nifty open-field runner who can make the first defender miss. However, he is not the kind of tough inside runner who will wear a defense down, which is why Bettis will still play a big role in the Steelers' offense even though Zereoue is the nominal starter. Bettis - when healthy - is still one of the premier power runners in the league.

Bettis has averaged over 1,200 yards rushing per season in his seven years with the Steelers. He is slimmed down and in shape this year, and by all accounts is having the best training camp he has had in years.

As long as Bettis stays healthy, he will get a substantial portion of the Steelers' carries. Zereoue will start, but even if he gets the majority of the touches, he will not get the goal line carries.

Positives

• Will run behind an OL built for run-blocking
• Is a pretty good pass-catching RB who will pick up additional yards as a receiver
• Has added muscle over the offseason in an effort to become a better north-south runner and win the starting job

Negatives

• Will compete with a currently healthy and in-shape Jerome Bettis for carries.
• Tends to dance in the backfield too long before charging up through the hole.
• Is not a particularly effective goal line runner.

Final Thoughts

One of the reasons many prefer Zereoue to Bettis is that he averaged more yards per carry in 2002 than Bettis did (3.9 vs. 3.6). However, that was mostly a reflection of the two backs' differing roles in the offense: Bettis getting the call in short-yardage situations and Zereoue in third-and-long situations. Comparing apples to apples, on first-and-ten Bettis averaged 3.8 yards per carry to Zereoue's 3.5. Still, Zereoue has been announced the starter

Barring an injury to Jerome Bettis, it looks like RBBC in Pittsburgh this year. Zereoue may get most of the work between the twenties and put up more yards than Bettis, but Bettis should get the goal line carries, which significantly detracts from Zereoue's value. Zeroue and Bettis in 2003 may be a lot like Hearst and Barlow in 2002: if one of them is injured, the other should become a valuable fantasy RB; if both stay healthy, neither one will be.

Quotes from the P.O.D. Message Thread:

To view the entire P.O.D. thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here:

Deepster:
"The reasons I'm not believing the hype on Amos Zereoue:

1) Bettis HAS been out of the lineup for stretches over the last couple years and Amos hasn't done enough to wrestle the #1 away. When you get a chance to play and you make the most of it, you get the job (see Tom Brady, see Chad Pennington). AZ has been "good" but not enough to push Bettis enough to the side where he's#1 or a high #2 pick.

2) Cowher is simply not going to toss Bettis on the scrap heap. You can look at Erickson and say there's a shot he isn't in love with Hearst and gives Barlow the big percent of touches. IF Amos wins the #1, Cowher isn't going to just outright dump the Bus. He'll hang around and get just enough carries to prevent AZ from being a legit weekly starter in most average leagues.

3) You have weapons in Ward and Burress who will probably both grab 100 passes this year. Maddox is competent enough where they can let him loose, not having to coddle the passing numbers like they did for Kordell at times. No need to make AZ your outright workhorse to succeed here."

4 - Digit Shark:
"I live in Pittsburgh, and hear all the local media. The word I hear is that Bettis is very likely to get the start, and will do so unless he gets injured. Amos will also get his carries and play on 3rd downs, causing the dreaded RBBC. As one writer said on the local radio, if they make Amos the starter, there will be NO place for Bettis and his big salary on this team. He can not play on third downs, and being just a goalline back would not fly with the Bus."

Godsbrother:
"I think the Steelers plan going into the season will be to involve Amos more in order to keep Bettis fresh for the playoffs. My guess is that Bettis starts and gets 15-20 carries, whereas Amos comes in to spell Bettis and for obvious passing downs, getting maybe 10-15 carries."

Brawler:
"The biggest things that jump out at me about Amos? The YPC went down significantly last year for these key guys. Only Fu went up, but with 115 total yards this is an insignificant sample size. Also, Fu clearly isn't a factor ever at the goal line or receiving, and is good in limited use, but that's it. Jerome had a lot less touches last year, even when starting and Amos had more. Kordell is gone, which may go either way on total rushing yards for Amos and Jerome, but their goal line touches should go up (Maddox rushing was too small to bother adding w no TDs)."

smlevin:
"Bill Cowher has never been averse to using a lot of backs and I see no reason for that to change this year. Bettis showed up in as good shape as anyone had seen in years. While I believe it is time for Amos to be a feature back, the Bus will give him one more year of a run for playing time. As the season wears on, Amos may emerge as the more consistent back (ala SF's situation), but for where he is being drafted, you may wait a long time for a payoff that never comes."

Projections: