Wood's Thoughts:

Donte Stallworth is a talented receiver; you don't score 8 touchdowns parts of 13 games while averaging 14.1 yards per reception without talent. And the praise and expectations for him run high. It won't be hard to find someone in your league willing to draft Stallworth expecting a top 10-15 type of season. If that's what it takes to get him, then I'm not biting. But if he's available as my WR3 who could play himself into a starting role, I'd gladly roll the dice on this guy.

While I don't dispute that Stallworth has the pedigree (Tennessee), the speed and size, and the hands to be an effective fantasy receiver, I'm just not sure it's a foregone conclusion given his nagging hamstring issues and the fact that he only caught 42 passes last year, hardly a major amount on a prolific offense like the Saints.

So what evidence is there to suggest Stallworth is ready to make the leap into the elite, if any? Plenty actually…

• Touchdown Production - Stallworth's 8 touchdowns in 42 receptions (19%) ranked tops among receivers with at least 32 receptions



• Big Play Production - Among receivers with at least 32 catches, Stallworth ranked 7th in terms of 'big plays' (i.e,. receptions of 25 yards or more). Of note, most of the league leaders were young receivers yet to become the teams' go-to guys (e.g., Lelie, Wayne, Bryant, Morgan).



• Good Hands - Donte only dropped 6% of his catchable passes last season, actually better than Joe Horn (a solid 8%); an impressive metric for a rookie receiver.



• Yards After the Catch - Doug Drinen points out on the thread that Stallworth got most of his yards after the catch; something I view favorably because it shows that Stallworth isn't dependent on a few deep bombs to maintain his high YPC.
  

Positives

• Excellent intangibles
• Highly productive secondary metrics for a rookie receiver
• Unquestioned number two in a prolific passing offense
  

Negatives

• History of hamstring issues (college and the pros)
• Not the most precise route runner
• Must play second fiddle to Joe Horn for another few years
  

Final Thoughts

I'm not ready to anoint Stallworth a perennial all Pro of to suggest he's going to supplant Joe Horn as the Saints go-to receiver. However, for a guy that I discounted last year because of his hamstring issues, he's about as impressive a fundamental receiver as there was last year among the younger guys. My only caveat are the hamstrings, which isn't a one time ordeal but something that has plagued Stallworth throughout his career. If he's not on the field, he can't help you win a fantasy title. That said, provided the hype doesn't get overwhelming, I would feel comfortable with Stallworth as a fantastic fantasy WR3 and a decent WR2 in deeper leagues; with obvious upside to those expectations if things fall into place. Draft accordingly.

Tremblay's Thoughts:

Donte' Stallworth entered the league as the 13th pick in the 2002 draft, and had a very productive rookie year, leading all rookie WRs with 8.3 fantasy points per game. He showed his outlandish speed and big-play ability by scoring 8 touchdown passes in just 13 games.

The high TD total is impressive, but I think it makes Stallworth's rookie season appear better than it really was. Among WRs with more than 20 catches last year (which excludes Marc Boerigter), Stallworth got a larger proportion of his fantasy production from TDs than any other player in the league. He finished the year as the #26 WR in terms of fantasy points per game, but was only #52 in terms of receiving yards per game. Since yardage is a better predictor of future fantasy success than touchdowns, I do not view Stallworth's 2002 season quite as positively as many others do.

Even for a skeptic like me, though, there is plenty to like about Stallworth. Many WRs show a lot of improvement from their first year to their second year (but see my face-off article on that point), so Stallworth could easily have a breakout year in 2003, particularly since he will take over the #2 WR role from the departed Jerome Pathon. He has the athleticism to succeed, and this year he will have the opportunity.

Positives

• Impressive rookie season saw him lead the Saints with 8 TD receptions
• Has blazing speed and plenty of big-play ability
• Will have an increased role in the offense this year

Negatives

• Is still young and inexperienced
• Is not his team's best receiver; Joe Horn will get the majority of the Saints' targets
• Has been plagued with hamstring problems since high school

Final Thoughts

I like Donte' Stallworth as a receiver and think he should have a fine NFL career. However, I think he is overhyped a bit this year in fantasy circles - as most second-year WRs coming off of good rookie seasons typically are. Nearly every set of rankings I've seen lists Stallworth as a top 30 WR, but based on the fact that he's only in his second year and averaged a mere 46 yards per game in 2002, I'm not ready to rank him that high yet. There will be only a handful of #2 WRs who finish in the top 30, and I don't think the Saints' offense will produce one of them.

Quotes from the P.O.D. Message Thread:

To view the entire P.O.D. thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here:

OSCAR GOLDMAN:
"(In my opinion) he is the best of a very good bunch of young WRs ready to attempt to expand the big 3. I just see him as having more talent and in a better situation than any of the other young bucks such as Chad Johnson, KRob or Porter. I honestly feel that Stallworth is a special, special player, and will take over from Horn as the #1."

Doug Drinen-Footballguy:
"He may or may not be their deep guy this year. But last year he was the exact opposite of their deep guy:

Passes behind the line of scrimmage: 12 / 88 / 1
Passes 1-10 yards downfield: 20 / 269 / 4
Passes 11-20 yards downfield: 9 / 209 / 2
Passes 21+ yards downfield: 1 / 28 / 1

It's debatable whether this is good news or bad news for the future, but he caught one deep ball all year last year. He got his yards by taking short passes and running after the catch."

Power Monster:
"Stallworth has the look of a winner and for a rookie he put up some decent numbers last year. Working within this talented offense, there is a lot of room for him to improve upon his 2002 stats but he must keep those hamstrings conditioned. These types of injuries are brutal on any player in the NFL let alone a WR. The word out of New Orleans is Brooks and his ability to be a much more mature leader and they are going to need it. It helps that Stall has Joe Horn as a mentor and as the guy that will absorb a good majority of double teams."

lumpy19:
"This off-season he was required by the Saints to stretch 5 HOURS every couple of days. Everyone in the Saints organization couldn't believe how someone as quick as him was so inflexible and he was saying that was a big reason he had so many hamstring problems. The organization also believes that he might be even faster now that he has started stretching regularly."

smlevin:
"He will have similar problems to last year, minus the injuries, in that he is fighting for receptions as the guy opposite a terrific number one. Look for him to cement himself as the #2 passing option in New Orleans and for his production to eat a bit into Deuce's receiving numbers. Ernie Conwell will, in turn, eat slightly into Stallworth's TDs. BTW, no one takes away either receiving or TD numbers from Joe Horn."

Projections: