Wood's Thoughts:

It's hard to believe that the same Drew Brees I watched play last year was the gunslinger that single handedly kept Purdue in the Big Ten hunt as a four-year starter. It's not that last year was a bad season for Brees, but the conservative nature of the game plan limited his ability to help your fantasy team. This year, a few things have changed, some haven't, so what should we expect from Brees in 2003?

The System - San Diego rightly focused on the running attack last year with LaDainian Tomlinson, and the passing game was not set up to take many risks downfield. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron is known for innovative passing attacks, but personnel last year (and a conservative head coach) limited his options. As long as Marty Schottenheimer is at the helm, I wouldn't expect the team to deviate too much from the power running, ball control offense that has characterized 'Martyball' for 17 NFL seasons. However, the team presumably didn't go out and sign David Boston as a decoy; which brings me to…

The Personnel - You cannot talk about the Chargers offense without giving credit to LaDainian Tomlinson, who many view as the best young running back in the league. Not only does Tomlinson consistently command 8 men in the box, which should opens things up for Brees, but he's also an excellent receiver out of the backfield (79 receptions last season). David Boston, he of the freakish size and speed, signed on to become the team's go-to receiver. Obviously Boston is an upgrade for a team that lacked playmakers last year, but remember that he's replacing Curtis Conway who was very effective last season when healthy. It will be critical for the team (and Brees) to establish a solid 2nd receiver, whether it be Reche Caldwell (my choice), Tim Dwight or Trevor Gaylor. At tight end, Brees has the unheralded Stephen Alexander; an excellent receiver at his position. And finally, the offensive line; which must do a better job protecting Brees this year. If the line doesn't improve, all talk of Brees taking a big leap forward can go out the door.

The Schedule - This clearly works in Brees' favor as the team faces a relatively easy schedule in 2003. According to our own Clayton Gray, San Diego enjoys six games against teams that are projected to finish in the bottom ¼ of the league's pass defenses.

Positives

• Productive quarterback who is very cerebral, and should be able to execute on the system better in his 2nd go around as the starter
• The addition of David Boston gives Brees more than enough weapons to be effective
• The schedule is favorable for Brees to have some big games, particularly in the second half of the year
  

Negatives

• The Chargers are still going to be a run first, run second, throw third team that is predicated on the QB not making mistakes, more than trying to make big plays
• While Boston is a fantastic WR addition, the remaining WR slots are relatively unproven
• Brees isn't the most physically gifted quarterback, a bit undersized and not particularly mobile
  

Final Thoughts

I believe Drew Brees is a good, young NFL quarterback. I see no reason why he can't make a major step forward in his second year running the team, and the pieces are in place for San Diego to make a playoff run, IF (and this is a big if) the defense can hold its own. With solid receiving options at WR1, RB and TE, he should have chances to make big throws. However, there's a difference between becoming a good NFL quarterback and being a good fantasy quarterback. I believe that Brees' job will be primarily to manage the game in San Diego, and to not make mistakes. Unfortunately that conservative philosophy doesn't bode well for Brees to have too many monstrous throwing days. I believe he could make a decent fantasy backup, and a spot starter on bye weeks if the schedule permits, but I would let him fall to you late in the draft. Draft accordingly.

Tremblay's Thoughts:

Physically, Brees is not a prototypical QB who can throw a 25-yard out on a rope. However, he is an accurate passer with sound mechanics; he can make his reads quickly and deliver the ball on time when he gets into a rhythm; and he has shown the ability to lead the team under pressure. In many ways, he is similar to the Buccaneers' QB Brad Johnson.

The Chargers kept their offense relatively simple and safe last year while Brees was learning and building confidence. In part, that was by design in order to help prevent Brees from turning the ball over or developing bad habits. In part, it was due to the problems along the offensive line. The team had to keep extra guys in to block; so fewer receivers were in the pattern. And since both offensive guards had trouble handling quick DTs when in short-set pass protection, Brees ended up taking a lot of seven-step drops, waiting for his target to break open. That offensive approach served its purpose in 2002, but it does not play to Brees' strength; he is at his best in a spread offense (like he ran at Purdue) where he can make his reads and deliver the ball quickly. In the few games when the Chargers used a lot of 3-WR formations while playing catch-up in the second half, Brees was able to find his rhythm and looked more confident and more poised. (Brees had 3 games in 2002 with 300+ yards and 2+ touchdowns.)

Brees did a lot of good things last year for a first-year starter, and now he will try to build on that. If the OL can offer better pass protection, the Chargers should open up the offense somewhat and use more 5-step drops, getting more receivers into the pattern on combination routes and playing more to Brees' strength.

That said, LaDainian Tomlinson will still be the focal point of the offense, and Brees will occasionally have games with fewer than 25 pass attempts. Brees is likely to be an inconsistent fantasy performer who will help your team if you guess right regarding which weeks to play him, but will probably not be your best option as an every-week starter.

Positives

• Young QB who played well as a first-year starter and should continue to improve.
• Should benefit from a less conservative offense in 2003.
• Gains a huge target with play-making ability in David Boston.
  

Negatives

• The offense will still center around LaDainian Tomlinson, which means Brees' pass attempts will be limited.
• Is not a great rushing QB who will get a lot of fantasy points on the ground.
• May be limited by his lack of ideal size and arm strength.
  

Final Thoughts

Brees should take a step forward this year and will likely put together a few excellent fantasy performances; but as long as Tomlinson is healthy, Brees will not consistently get the 40+ pass attempts you want from your starting QB. There is so much depth at QB this year, Brees may be an adequate QB2, but it is hard to rank him above many of the other QB2s such as Drew Bledsoe, Tom Brady, Brad Johnson, Kerry Collins, Chad Pennington, etc. Brees should therefore not be considered a priority on your draft board, but rather a nice fallback option with pretty good upside that can be gotten cheaply.

Quotes from the P.O.D. Message Thread:

To view the entire P.O.D. thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here:

CMU37484:
"Drew Brees is a very solid QB but I recall earlier comparing him to Troy Aikman in another thread. He'll play smart football within his system and have few mistakes, but he's not very valuable in fantasy football, which is what we really care about. Chargers fans sometimes think he gets no respect but in the world of fantasy football, the stats are all we care about."

smlevin:
"Marty Schott isn't exactly a take chances kind of coach - he's from the old school where the QB does not need to win the game so long as he doesn't lose the game. I see only a moderate improvement in Drew Brees for this year, and his int numbers will continue to approach his TD numbers, which makes him more of a liability in leagues that deduct heavily for turnovers."

Beerguzzler:
"Drew looks noticeably more in shape this year. He has a nice zip to his passes, more so than last year. He seems to be stepping into the ball more, not floating the ball so much as he did last year (even he commented on it, sorry no link). While these things might not necessarily translate to overall fantasy success, it should measure success on the field and possibly make him serviceable in FF. I see a nice progression from his stats last year. Whether or not he can break through the Top 12 QB ranking will depend on his O-line. If they improve substantially from last year, he has a chance."

MediJuana:
"Last year I targeted Brad Johnson as my late round, starting fantasy QB in BIG leagues. This year I am targeting Brees. He will be available late, maybe the 24th QB taken. Reche Caldwell will be the #2 WR, and should only improve. Boston should do better than Conway. The Opposing D's will be focusing on LT. WR's will get 1 on 1 coverage. I don't thin he will do great but he will certainly do better than 25th."

TheDirtyWord:
"Once Schottenheimer became more comfortable with Brees at QB, it would appear he gave Brees a more active role in the offense and Brees responded over the seasons final 12 games. The question the above stats ask was this. In giving Brees a more active role in the offense, was this a good thing for San Diego? In addition, was Brees given a more active role because of his development, or due to game situations necessitating a more aggressive passing attack? From a yards perspective, sure it looks like Brees began to feel his oats more, but in reality his YPA went from 6.33 in his 1st four games to 6.2 over the last 12 games. And in throwing more passes/game, Brees saw his INT rate rise (from 2.1% to 3.3%)."

Projections: