Wood's Thoughts:

At a time when starting running backs fly off the board faster than college girls' bras in Girls Gone Wild videos, it would seem impossible for a starting running back, with no establish competition and a history of solid (albeit not stellar) performance to still be on the board after the first few rounds of a competitive draft. Yet, for all intents and purposes, such is the case with James Stewart. While I can understand why some would choose to view Stewart as one of the riskier picks among starting RBs, I'm not sure I understand why he's not worth taking a flier on before people like Amos Zereoue and Onterrio Smith.

Consider:

1. Stewart has job security (at least for the 1st half of the season) - When Steve Mariucci signed on as head coach there was speculation that Stewart would be cut as the team embarked on a youth movement led by Joey Harrington and Charles Rogers. However, Mooch saw fit to retain Stewart and a prescient move that appears to be. Even though the team drafted Artose Pinner and acquired Shawn Bryson, neither look to be ready to start the season (both are on the PUP list). Given Stewart's familiarity with the offense, his solid blocking and receiving abilities, and his past history of production, I see no reason why J. Stew shouldn't get the bulk of the touches at the start of the season. The only problem that may arise, is that if Detroit is eliminated from the playoffs in the last month of the season (entirely probable, if not likely), I can see the team going with the younger backs to see what they have to build on for the future. Be mindful of that but remember that you have to get to the playoffs before you can worry about whom to start in those late weeks anyway.
2. Mariucci runs the ball - Even though Mariucci moved up the coaching ranks as a QB guru and is known as one of Mike Holmgren's protégés in executing the West Coast offense, he has a history of running the football. In his six seasons with San Francisco, the 49ers ranked 1st in rushing attempts twice, 2nd another season, and in the top 10 in five of his six years. With a young QB at the helm, and a rookie playmaker at receiver, don't expect Mariucci to deviate from the conservative manner in which he rebuilt the 49ers.
3. Stewart has been productive in limited time - Stewart's skeptics are apt to point out that he's only had one season with more than 250 carries and that was back in 2000. Yet, that is just one of three seasons in Stewart's career where he's finished in the top 20. He's finished 22nd two other years. So despite Stewart not getting the rock like many other starting tailbacks, he's put up respectable RB2 numbers in five of eight seasons. When he's healthy, he's productive. When he's hurt, you bench him and move on.
   

Positives

• Stewart has been productive in a horrible offense, and now gets Mariucci as his head coach to go along with an improved supporting cast
• Averaged a solid 4.4 YPC despite being the lone threat on the offense last year
• A better-than-average receiver on a team that should look for him in the flat as a safety valve for young Harrington
  

Negatives

• 32 years old with little history of remaining healthy for a full season
• Could be in the position to lose carries to the younger backs just as fantasy owners need him most, the playoffs (i.e., Weeks 14-17)
• Detroit still doesn't have the appearance of a consistently productive offense, which should limit Stewart's trips to the red zone

Final Thoughts

There are definitely risks with selecting James Stewart. He's 32 years old and likely doesn't fit into the long-term plans of a very young team under a new head coach looking to build toward the future. He's almost guaranteed to miss one or two games if history is any indicator, and he's never been an elite fantasy performer (i.e., top 10) despite playing for eight seasons. However, I believe those risks are fully reflected in his average draft position, and then some. Considering that his two biggest threats for playing time are on the PUP list to start the season, that he's fully versed in the nuances of the West Coast offense, and that he's productive on a game-by-game basis when healthy, you can do much worse than target Stewart as your RB3 in the fifth or sixth round of the draft if you've strengthened your squad elsewhere in earlier rounds. I wouldn't feel comfortable betting my season on a huge season from Stewart, but I believe that he's reasonably likely to end the season solidly in the top 24, i.e., a decent spot starter and capable (in a pinch) RB2.

Stuart's Thoughts:

James Stewart remains one of the more undervalued and intriguing running backs in fantasy football. While he's past thirty, injury prone (just two full seasons in eight years), and on a bad Lions team, there's a good deal of upside as well. Check out Stewart's line the past four seasons, averaged into a sixteen game season:

• 275 carries
• 1092 yards
• 4.00 YPC
• 8 TDs
• 35 recs
• 277 rec yards
• 8.00 YPR
• 1 rec TD
• 191 Fantasy Points

A healthy and productive Stewart could certainly top 300 carries and double-digit touchdowns, numbers that would make him a steal in your fantasy draft. The 6-1, 224 lb. Stewart has become a receiving threat in recent years, and should succeed in Coach Steve Mariucci's offense. With a young but talented quarterback, and the best receiver in this year's draft, expect the Lions offense to be improved this season. With inexperience at QB and WR, and injury concerns with the other RBs on the depth chart, Stewart won't be facing much competition to start.

Three of the past four years, Stewart has been a strong RB2 in most leagues. Interestingly enough, he seems to have improved with age; his yards-per-carry has seen a large spike (4.8 and 4.4 the past two years).

The past two seasons, Stewart has only carried the ball eighty times with the Lions in the lead. He's run for 376 yards (4.7 ypc), which lets me think an improved Detroit team will bode well for his fantasy numbers. Detroit isn't going to be Kansas City or Miami, but a slight improvement would go a long way to help his overall numbers. Don't forget that in San Francisco last year; Mariucci had his RBs run 405 times, seventy-four more than all the Lions RBs in 2003.

Positives

• Triple threat: can run, catch and is a strong goal line back
• Where's the competition? All other Lions backs are injured or inexperienced
• Steve Mariucci, Joey Harrington and Charles Rogers all help the running game. Mariucci had great success with the running game in San Francisco, and an improved passing attack will open up the running game.

Negatives

• Age: Stewart celebrated his thirtieth birthday two seasons ago
• Durability: Has missed an average of 3.25 games per season in his eight year career.
• The Lions: This team has won just five games the past two years. Their inability to produce on both sides of the ball has curtailed his production. He's averaged just fourteen carries per game the past two seasons.

Final Thoughts

I like Stewart this year, as he's one of the ONLY value picks at running back. If you don't think he's more of an injury risk than any RBs, it's hard to leave him out of your top twenty. He shouldn't share the ball too often, and can handle a large workload. There aren't many RBs in this league who excel at being an every down back, catching the ball and putting six on the board, and Stewart is not weak in any of these areas. Joey Harrington and the passing offense should improve by leaps and bounds in year two, making Stewart a very solid, if not sexy, pick.

Quotes from the P.O.D. Message Thread:

To view the entire P.O.D. thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here:

Gatorman:
"I've always liked James Stewart because guppies and experts alike tend to miss him. In year's past, when RBBC wasn't as novel, J-Stew would slide in drafts and be a solid player for your team as a RB3 or 4. Now with so many teams up in the air with RBBC, a guy who is a sure starter is Golden."

H.K.:
"For very good reasons, 32 Year old RB's on bad teams are not highly desired in fantasy football. Stewart may have a decent year IF he can stay healthy b/c Mooch likes to run, but the combination of the Lions playing a lot of catch up and an inconsistent core of young offensive talent will probably keep Stewart's numbers pretty pedestrian."

Just Win Baby:
"Let me start by saying I was skeptical about Stewart when I started my research. I tend to stay away from 32 year old RBs, especially those who have played 16 games only 2 times in 8 seasons.

However, consider this. In 1996, the year before Mariucci took over the 49ers, SF ranked #17 in the league with 454 rushing attempts. Only #17 despite averaging 4.07 ypc as a team and finishing #4 in the league in rushing TDs...

In 1997, Mariucci's first year, SF averaged only 3.76 ypc (#20 in the league), yet he stuck with the running game to the tune of 523 rushing attempts (#4 in the league). In so doing, he helped Hearst to a career year to that point.

It is this type of philosophy that helped Mariucci's teams averaged 474 rushing attempts and 16 rushing TDs in his 6 years in SF."

KING:
"Stewart's Average Draft Position (has been) rising each month:

Why? I've seen him go in the 3rd of some of theses drafts on the board. The 3rd round? (What) are you people thinking?"

Frenchy Fuqua:
"IF Stewart can stay healthy he will be a great #3 RB and probably a solid #2 RB. With Pinner and Bryson on the PUP and a fragile/inexperienced Luke Staley behind Stewart, "Little Man" should see most if not all of the touches. As others have already stated Stewart had 1354 total yards and 6 TDs last year despite a rookie QB, poor surrounding cast, and injuries."

Projections: