Wood's Thoughts:

If speaking in the third person was a fantasy category, Joe Horn would be the top overall selection ("Joe Horn knows what Joe Horn needs to do"), but it's not so we're left debating the merits of where he ranks among the elite fantasy receivers for the 2003 season. Few players have been as consistently productive over the last three years, ranking 9th, 7th and 9th, respectively in 2000, 2001 and 2002. He's been fantasy gold since coming over to the Saints from a Chiefs team that woefully underutilized him (shocker, seeing that Marty Schottenheimer was head coach.)

There's little reason to expect Horn to suffer a significant fall off OR a major uptick at this juncture. The team returns intact from last year, with some changes to the offensive line being the only issue at hand. What looked to be a problem just a few weeks ago, Aaron Brooks' shoulder, now appears okay as he's been throwing with no pain in training camp. Deuce McAllister will continue to provide an elite option at tailback, ensuring the defenses have to stay honest and put eight men in the box at times. And Horn has a maturing (and hopefully hamstring injury free) Donte Stallworth opposite him.

Some have worried that Stallworth will overtake Horn this year as the go-to receiver yet I don't believe that's going to be the case. Horn has a rapport with Brooks that cannot be discounted. There are no signs that Horn is slowing down, and Brooks knows that Horn will make the big play nine times out of ten. Combine that with the notion that a WR1 doesn't necessarily have to suffer a decline in production when the team's WR2 breaks out (witness last year with Moulds and Price), and I see very little risk (barring injury) to Horn's production.

Positives

• Consistently produced top 10 fantasy numbers every year as a Saint
• New Orleans should remain one of the league's most balanced and potent offenses as long as Brooks' shoulder holds together
• Durable, never missed a game as a starter and has played through pain on several occasions
  

Negatives

• The offensive line has undergone some change in the offseason, which must gel quickly for fear of putting Brooks' re-constructed shoulder at risk
• Stallworth showed he's a viable red zone target, and could vulture some scores from Horn under certain conditions
• New Orleans faces a difficult projected schedule against the pass, according to Clayton Gray's Ultimate Strength of Schedule
  

Final Thoughts

Joe Horn is a rock until proven otherwise. There's no good reason anyone should be projecting a major fall off for Horn without also acknowledging that he could as easily put up monstrous tier 1 numbers in the process. I believe that anyone who has had at least 83 catches, 1250 yards, 7 touchdowns and 14.2 yards per catch in three straight seasons is a safe and solid choice as your WR1 in the third or fourth round. Horn should be in the mix as one of the first receivers off the board after the Big Three (i.e., Moss, Owens and Harrison) are drafted.

Culcasi's Thoughts:

A great rags to riches story, Joe Horn left tiny (say it with me) Itawamba college in 1992 and, not an NFL prospect at the time, spent 1993 washing dishes and working in a furniture factory as a regular "Joe". He caught on with the CFL in 1994 and showed enough with the Memphis Mad Dogs (71-1414-5) that the Chiefs made him a fifth round selection in the 96 draft. Playing primarily on special teams from 96-98, Horn's 1999 season may be considered his most important. Not that 35 receptions and six touchdowns are anything special, but it came during a contract year and he was able to turn the promise that he showed in Kansas City into a starting gig with the Saints. The rest is history, so they say.

Over his three years in New Orleans, Horn has been the #1 receiving option on what has turned into one of the leagues most exciting offenses. A nice combination of size, speed, route running and terrific hands, along with three year averages of 88-1306-8, have turned Horn into a consensus top five wide receiver. At 31 years old, he's started each of the last 48 games and, possibly because he was a late bloomer, he's shown no signs of slowing down. Falling into the top 10 for each of last three seasons, Horn's consistency is a big part of what makes him special. During the 02 season, his six 100+ yard receiving performances trailed only Marvin Harrison (10) and Randy Moss (7) while he recorded five or more receptions in all but three games. Active in the red zone, he finished fifth in RZ targets (21) and tied for fourth with six RZ touchdowns.

Positives

• Horn possesses all the physical abilities of a great receiver while playing in an offense that can showcase his skills
• Seemingly a lock for the top 10, he's very capable of finishing in the top five
• The emergence of Donte Stallworth will make it tougher for defenses to focus on Horn

Negatives

• The emergence of Donte Stallworth will make it tougher for the Saints to focus on Horn
• With all of his success, Horn has yet to produce a 10+ touchdown season
• Aaron Brooks' shoulder. If Brooks shows any ill-effects from his offseason shoulder surgery (which he has yet to fully test out), Horn's value will plummet

Final Thoughts

Even with his three-year success in New Orleans, there are questions surrounding Joe Horn that deal mainly with his supporting cast. Everyone sees Donte Stallworth as an up & coming superstar, and it is possible for two very productive receivers to reside in the same offense, but each case is different and we're not sure what affect this will have on Horn's production. Aaron Brooks' shoulder is a big concern, and unless he's 100%, you'd have to expect the passing numbers in New Orleans to suffer. That being said, I'm an optimist who currently has Horn as the #5 receiver. Will he produce up to that level? Who knows, but he's the most consistent option out there and the safest bet among a group that includes Torry Holt, Plaxico Burress, David Boston, and possibly Koren Robinson.

Quotes from the P.O.D. Message Thread:

To view the entire P.O.D. thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here:

sdsjr3:
"I feel that after the top 4 are gone, Joe Horn is included in the second tier of WRs. That said, I don't think he'd be my top choice in that tier. I'm not a big fan of Aaron Brooks, simply because he's so inconsistent. Inconsistent QB play naturally leads to inconsistent WR play. I also think that Stallworth will steal some of Horn's thunder, but Joe is still the #1 threat in N.O. and should still produce good WR1 numbers."

Jack McCoy:
"Joe Horn has been absolutely consistent over the past three seasons:

2000 - WR9 - 94, 1332, 8
2001 - WR7 - 83, 1265, 9
2002 - WR9 - 89, 1314, 7

Rather than Donte Stallworth usurping him as New Orleans' top receiver, I think it's quite possible for the Saints to place two receivers in the top 15 this year, much like Moulds/Price or Burress/Ward last year (both of which tandems actually finished in the top ten)."

Power Monster:
"This is why I have a nice fat asterisk next to all my Saint prospects. The team has shown us nothing more than a hot steamy clinker to keep us FF owners warm in December's cold. (Joe Horn) is going to post some solid games but when and where the streaky cluster will occur is everybody's guess. The best-case scenario has Stallworth emerge to keep the double teams off Horn. If this happens than Joe will have a fine season. Of course, Aaron Brooks and Deuce McAllister will have to do their part to keep the defenses honest. It all looks good on paper but page two has the team playing a rough schedule. Fine! Great teams find a way to play and win the rough games and this is what the Saints will need to do early and often."

smlevin:
"Don't know why we need a P.O.D. on Horn - it's like the one on Deuce. Here's a clue - third round, Horn available, Moulds gone, take Horn. He is ultra consistent over the last few years, which is exactly what you want from a receiver, and he has the potential to explode in the same degree as any of the big-three at his position. For the last three years, you could count on around 1300 yards and around 8 TDs from Horn (this is all off of memory) and he has had top-10 finishes each of those years."

TheDirtyWord:
"There is nothing to suggest that the Saints plan to de-emphasize Joe Horn in their offensive attack. Even if they try and get the ball to Deuce McAllister more in 2003, Horn showed that he is actually more productive when Deuce carries the ball more than 20 times/game as opposed to when he does not.

In 9 games, Deuce carried the ball 20+ times:

Horn: 54 receptions 813 yards, 4 TD's.

This projects to a 1450 yard season if Deuce carries the ball 20+ times every game. Now while that won't happen, I do foresee the Saints looking to go to Deuce even more this season, perhaps ratcheting his carries up from 325 to the 350+ range."

Projections: