Wood's Thoughts:

As I sat down to write my synopsis of this POD, I was stunned to see so many contributors projecting such horrifyingly low statistics this year. Typically people avoid factoring injuries into their projections (maybe a game or two), but more than half of the thread contributors saw fit to predict major time off for Warner this year. That just doesn't make sense, particularly because a) he's been completely healthy in training camp and b) there are far greater injury concerns at the QB position that go largely unmentioned in their projections (e.g., Brooks, Garcia).

I can only guess that there is a mistaken notion that Warner isn't an immeasurably talented QB. Some have noted the success that Marc Bulger and Trent Green had in the system as evidence that "it's the system stupid." While that's partially true, I would note several things. One, Warner is fundamentally sound. If you look at him when he's healthy, he's got great footwork, the fastest release in the league, and he makes all the right reads. Two, Warner is healthy by any stretch of the imagination. I could understand if Warner was being held out of practice and we still had to buy his word that the thumb was fine. But he's been practicing folks. There's been on indication of any lingering issues.

In his four years as a starter Warner has two league MVP awards, he's averaged nearly 280 yards passing per game and two touchdowns. That's 4,500 yards and 32 touchdowns a year, even including last year's partial season disaster. There are few, if any QBs as accurate, particularly when you consider that he goes downfield far more than other top tier QBs.

Positives

• When healthy, he's the most productive and accurate passer in the league
• He still has an elite group of offensive weapons (Faulk, Holt, Bruce)
• The team made improving the offensive line a priority this year
  

Negatives

• Marshall Faulk's health remains a bit of an issue, and if he misses time there's reason to believe the entire offense will be less effective
• We're essentially taking Warner at his word that his thumb issues are a thing of the past, and not chronic
• Warner is prone to interceptions, so if you are heavily penalized for TOs he should be slightly downgraded
  

Final Thoughts

I don't need to go on a long diatribe about Kurt Warner. Simply, if he's really healthy, he is a stone cold steal judging from early draft returns. If his thumb turns out to be chronic, limiting his accuracy forever, then owners better pray they drafted a top notch backup. I'm inclined to bet on the former, not the latter. Warner is getting scrutinized in camp by dozens of people, and no one is suggesting he looks anything less than brilliant. I don't view Warner as worthy of a top 3 QB selection this year; because you have to assess some risk factor given his performance last season, but I'd happily grab him if he fell to the 5th round or later. Warner is a lock for this year's top 10 (barring some NEW injury). Draft accordingly.

Tremblay's Thoughts:

When Kurt Warner is at the top of his game, there is almost no stopping him: he led the Iowa Barnstormers to two straight Arena Bowl appearances, and then led all of NFL Europe in passing yards and touchdowns while playing for the Amsterdam Admirals.

He's had some pretty good seasons for the Rams as well. Last year, however, was not one of them.

Marc Bulger generally played great last year for the Rams, but Warner really struggled. Why was that? Warner's nagging thumb injury is one obvious answer, but I think there are two other factors that may have been just as important:

1. Marshall Faulk's Involvement in the Offense. Kurt Warner played in all or most of five games last year. In those five games, Faulk averaged only 7.8 carries per game. In the Rams' other eleven games, Faulk averaged 15.7 carries per game. The failure to establish a rushing attack while Warner was at QB put him at a severe disadvantage.



2. Difficulty of Schedule. In the five games featuring Warner at QB, the Rams faced the Broncos, Giants, Buccaneers, Redskins, and Eagles - defenses that were ranked #7, #5, #1, #4, and #3 last year, respectively, in terms of yards per pass attempt allowed. (In poker, those rankings would make an excellent lowball hand.)

Even as bad as Warner's 2002 season was, though, there were some bright spots. Warner's 65.5% completion percentage was within his normal range, and was sixth in the league among QBs with at least 100 attempts. Warner's 1,431 yards in 5.1 games averaged out to 280 yards per game. Over 16 games, that would have been 4,485 yards, which is also within his normal range and would have been second in the league behind only Rich Gannon.

So even in a season in which nearly everything went wrong, Warner still put up some very impressive yardage numbers. If 4,485 yards over 16 games is his downside, I want him on my team.

Positives

• Two-time NFL MVP has proven he can be a stud
• Is finally healthy this year, according to reports
• Plays in an offensive system conducive to generating mucho fantasy points
  

Negatives

• Is coming off a year in which he accumulated 11 INTs and just 3 TDs
• His backup QB played better than him last year, so he could be on a sort lease if 2003 starts to look like 2002
• One-dimensional fantasy QB who gets no fantasy points at all on the ground
  

Final Thoughts

Warner is as accurate as any QB in the league; he makes his reads as quickly as any QB in the league; and he usually puts the ball where his receiver can catch it in stride and pick up yards after the catch. Warner is also a tough player and a leader who has the respect of his teammates. He also sees the whole field well and spreads the ball around to all his receivers.

I believe Warner will bounce back this year and have another 4,000-yard season, easy. And while he may not put up as many TDs as he did from 1999-2001, he should find his way back into the top handful of passers in that area as well.

Quotes from the P.O.D. Message Thread:

To view the entire P.O.D. thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here:

General Malaise:
"Kurt Warner was the quintessential Horatio Alger hero - a good guy who kept plugging along until opportunity fell in his lap. It's a nice story. And he's a nice guy. And I like nice guys and nice stories in a sport and society littered and laced with bad guys who do bad things yet draw bigger paychecks in a week than most of us will see in 10 years. All that said, I think Kurt Warner is done. In fact, I think he's an optical illusion that will disappear almost as quickly as he landed. From 1999 to 2001, Warner was the emperor of the NFL quarterback position. I'm here to say that the emperor has no clothes and soon, this emperor will be out of the NFL and a permanent fixture on the annals of football lore."

Biglare66:
"Kurt Warner represents very little fantasy value to me because I think he's struggling with his confidence and that has caused him to hesitate. The quick and accurate throws are gone. He's 2nd guessing his own instincts, and that's usually not a good sign. Until this changes, I'm going to avoid. Hmmm, predicted stats for the (3-5 games) games he'll last...."

Anarchy99:
"I looked into my crystal ball and saw 2002 all over again for KW. Even though the reports have indicated otherwise, I am not convinced Warner is healthy, and I would not be shocked if he had chronic hand injuries at this point. As I have stated before, there will be no Rams' revival. They will be above average, but not the force they once were."

smlevin:
"Anyway, Kurt Warner will be back with a flourish. Feel free to handcuff Bulger to him b/c that guy can get the job done, too, but I think Warner lasts this season and the Rams get one more year of super-offense in. Kurt is still relatively young for a QB, heading into his 6th NFL season at the age of 32, he should have another 2-3 years of being able to play at a high level as long as St. Crap doesn't get him killed. This means, Pace must be in the fold before the season starts. If he is, expect a huge year from Warner, Faulk and co. If he is not, expect to need Bulger on your squad as insurance, and drop Faulk to the bottom of the top-7 of RBs."

dcgangstas:
"I just fear that in Warner's case, one good hit to that hand, and it's back to wounded ducks being tossed from the Rams' pocket. I'm going to venture to guess that Warner plays 13 games, starting 12, so for God's sakes, take Marc Bulger with a late round pick, please."

Projections: