Tremblay's Thoughts:

After spending four years as Fred Taylor's backup in Jacksonville, Stacey Mack appears to be the frontrunner to start at RB for the Texans. He is not without competition, however. The Texans' leading rusher from a year ago, Jonathan Wells, has slimmed down from last season and reportedly looks quicker through the holes. James Allen returns and is the likely third-down back. The Texans drafted Domanick Davis in the fourth round of the regular draft and Tony Hollings in the second round of the supplemental draft; who will also provide competition. (Hollings is coming off a torn ACL in his right knee, but has been cleared to practice and is said to be recovering well.)

So while Mack is the favorite to start and get the majority of the carries, he is not a lock; and a running-back-by-committee situation is not out of the question.

Assuming Mack does start, he will be running an offensive line that has more questions than answers at this point. The Texans' running game was second-worst in the league last year (behind the Bears), averaging only 84.2 yards per game. Tony Boselli is recently retired, so he won't be there to help turn things around.

Mack is somewhat similar to Wells in style. He is a bruising between-the-tackles runner who can get the tough inside yards, but he lacks the great moves and speed to be a breakaway threat or a dangerous outside runner. He excels in short-yardage and goal-line situations; but the Texans' may not have a whole lot of those.

Positives

• Proven goal line runner with 19 career rushing TDs
• Has a chance to be the featured back this year
• Has been durable so far in his career
  

Negatives

• Plays for a team that is not expected to score a lot of points
• Has plenty of competition for starting role
• Lacks open-field run skills and big-play ability

Final Thoughts

I would not want Stacey Mack to be one of my starting running backs. Mack is the kind of runner who will get up through the hole with decent quickness and power and will take what the offensive line gives him, but he will not create yards on his own. If the offensive line doesn't create room for Mack, he will get stuffed at the line of scrimmage. Running behind the Texans' offensive line, I believe he will get stuffed quite often; big runs and big games will be rare events. Mack's redeeming quality is that he is an excellent goal line runner; but the Texans will have to get in the red zone a lot more often in 2003 than they did in 2002 for that to matter.

Wood's Thoughts:

Every once in a while there is a player that creates such divergent opinions that he commands more attention than you would otherwise expect. Stacey Mack is such a player as Joe & David are projecting that he gets 300 carries for almost 1,200 yards and 7 touchdowns, in other words a 'decent' RB2, and great RB3. Meanwhile, the message board contingent was all over the board while Maurile and I are basically down the middle with our assumptions.

This leads me back to one of the basic tenets of fantasy football. Any player needs two things to be successful, Ability and Opportunity.

Ability Analysis

Stacey Mack was a relatively unheralded player coming out of Temple University and signed with the Jaguars as an undrafted free agent in 1999. Mack is a very big back, listed at 6'1" and 241 pounds, bigger than some NFL fullbacks and is known more for his straight ahead power running style than for his ability to make lateral moves or make people miss in space.

I believe that he has shown the ability to run between the tackles and score from the two yard line. However, I don't believe that his time in limited action warrants anyone suggesting that he's got the ability to be a special back, a back that succeeds despite his offensive line. With the Texans offensive line looking no better than last year, when the team had the 2nd worst rushing attack in the league, I don't believe Mack will be in position to make many plays.

Opportunity Analysis

I'm not sure the assumption of Mack being the every down starter is a sound one. Yes, he was the Texans' free agent acquisition for a position of need and it's a better situation than being a backup for Fred Taylor. However, this is a team suddenly awash in running backs including James Allen, Jon Wells and supplemental draft selection Tony Hollings, someone the Texans felt comfortable using a 2nd round pick on despite having played RB in college for half a season. All indications are that Houston plans on keeping all four on the roster, and I've read no word from the coaches that anyone is due to get a preponderance of the workload.

Another point re: Opportunity. The one skill that Mack has shown consistently is an ability to get in the end zone from the goal line. While that's certainly valuable, one has to wonder how often the Texans will be in a goal line situation. The team is young and developing, but I don't yet see evidence that this is a team that will move the chains with great efficiency.

Positives

• Opportunity to earn the full time starting job
• Better-than-average goal line scoring threat
• Can be had later in the draft than other projected starting RBs

Negatives

• Won't find much daylight behind one of the league's least impressive offensive lines
• Must prove he's a better receiver and blocker than the three other RBs vying for playing time
• Texans' offense not likely to be presented with consistent goal line situations; which would make use of Mack's abilities

Final Thoughts

I'm not buying into the Stacey Mack hype. That is not to say he isn't worth drafting in the right situation on draft day, but he would have to fall into the sixth or seventh round (of 12 team leagues) at a minimum for me to see value there. I don't project Mack to be much more than a glorified part timer again in Houston. The Texans won't be in the position, in my view, to amass lots of red zone carries nor will they be able to consistently move the chains with that offensive line and young group of skill position players. Chances are someone in your league will see Mack getting 300+ carries the way some of my fellow Footballguys do; let them draft him with such unreasonable expectations and focus on value at other positions. Draft accordingly.

Quotes from the P.O.D. Message Thread:

To view the entire P.O.D. thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here:

IvanKaramazov:
"Over the past two seasons, Mack has averaged 4.2 ypc. Okay, but nothing special. Last year, Wells and Allen averaged a putrid 2.98 ypc in Houston. So with Mack, you're taking an average RB and putting him on a very poor running team that doesn't figure to be protecting many leagues. To top if off, it's not clear that he won't be fighting Wells and Domanick Davis for carries".

sdsjr3:
"If Mack is used as an every down back, he'll get 1000 yards. I don't think there is anybody else in Houston than can steal his carries. He's big and is a good inside runner. He has a nose for the end zone. The line will hurt him significantly, especially now that Boselli is gone. But as long as he's getting 80% or more of the carries he'll be a borderline RB2 in larger leagues and a very good RB3."

Armageddon T. Thunderbird:
"Tony Hollings has been cleared to practice and he will get more and more carries as the season goes on. Mack is on a one-year contract. He is not the future - Hollings is."

H.K.:
"Addition by subtraction:

1) Hollings has four college career starts at the RB position and he is coming off knee surgery, so I don't anticipate a whole lot of playing time for him in 2003. David Carr is the franchise and letting a gimpy rookie RB on the field for pass protection is not on Caper's mind. He is very conservative.

2) Wells and Allen had their chance last year, and neither did much. Allen will probably be a third down guy though. He is proven in that role.

3) That leaves Mack, and if he gets 80% of the Texans' pathetic rushing yardage total from last year he'll go over 1,000. As bad as they were, its is not a stretch to think that they'll improve a little bit in their second season."

smlevin:
"OK, here's the deal, Mack will be the starter and will play as such all year long - he has a penchant for tough running, especially near the goal line, and he has decent hands, so he will be a key outlet receiver for David Carr. Finally, he is the best player on the team for blitz pickups and for blocking, so he will be on the field most of the game, if for no other reason than to keep Carr's fanny dry and to give him a viable threat out of the backfield."

Projections: