Wood's Thoughts:

There are three main reasons why I like Stephen Alexander this year as draft day approaches:

1. He's productive - Did you know that Alexander finished sixth in yards and seventh in receptions last year among NFL TEs? Now, did you also realize that he missed four games in the middle of the season? On a yards per game basis, he finished 5th in the league. The only thing you can knock him for was the one touchdown reception, but as anyone should know, touchdowns are the least predictable portion of a person's fantasy production, and Alexander's history suggests 1 touchdown is the exception not the rule.



2. He comes cheaply - Alexander is the 21st TE off the board according to Antsports, which is frankly absurd. That means you can basically get him with one of the last picks in your draft, or even the waiver wire, the definition of a steal. The only reason I can see him falling that far is the missed time (he's missed 10 games in the last two seasons), but it should be noted that Alexander returned to the team in Week 9 last season and was healthy (and dominant) the rest of the year.



3. Most tight ends are overvalued - While this isn't the forum to debate this concept, it's my contention that most tight ends are over valued on draft day. Yes, even if you're waiting until the 16th round of a 20 round draft I feel that you're probably robbing yourself of value in most cases. Very little if anything separates the weekly points per game of the non-elite TEs…it's always been that way. So unless you are willing to pay up for one of the TEs that can break 100 fantasy points (i.e., Shockey, Gonzo, Heap), you should focus on the one or two guys that have a great chance of duplicating everyone else's weekly production from the position, but who you can draft later than your league combatants. As I've already alluded to in the 2nd bullet, Alexander is the definition of this concept.

Positives

• Playmaker, 2nd at his position in 'big plays' (i.e., receptions of 25+ yards) despite missing 4 games
• One of Drew Brees favorite targets
• Sure handed precise route runner, but also an excellent blocker so he stay in for the majority of the snaps

Negatives

• Injuries have befallen him, missed 10 games in the last two years (and has already sat out of practice with a groin injury)
• Will he continue to be targeted with the addition of WR David Boston to this conservative offense
• Must improve up the one touchdown reception in 2002

Final Thoughts

Stephen Alexander is virtually unnoticed in many drafts this year. Yet, you're talking about a man who in 12 games last year average 45 yards per game and 4 catches. If you're looking for a bargain basement TE that will almost never give you a goose egg, and who with one or two more redzone looks will give you top 10 numbers at his position, Alexander is your man. In leagues that reward points for receptions, his value is that much higher (60-reception pace in 2002, his first year in San Diego). Don't forget about him late in your draft, focus on higher upside positions in the late rounds while others are scrambling to draft the ninth or tenth best TE on their cheat sheets, knowing that Alexander will be there waiting for you late, you'll be the one laughing at the end of the season.

Tremblay's Thoughts:

Coming off a Pro Bowl year for the Redskins in 2000, Stephen Alexander was given a $15 million contract by the Chargers two years ago for his ability as a receiver. Since then, he has shown the Chargers more potential than production. His 2001 season, in which he had only 9 catches, was cut severely short by injury. In 2002, due to the ineffectiveness of the offensive line, Alexander was asked to stay in to block a lot of the time, and was very seldom used as a downfield receiver. If the Chargers can get Alexander into the pattern more often on quick release routes, he can be one of the better receiving tight ends in the league.

The addition of FB Lorenzo Neal should free up Alexander from some of the heavy blocking this year so he can release downfield and play a larger role in the passing game. The offensive line is also deeper and healthier than it was a year ago.
Alexander's potential as a receiver, when he does get into the pattern, was evident over the second half of 2002. In the final eight games of the season, Alexander amassed 455 yards receiving; which was third among TEs behind only Jeremy Shockey and Todd Heap. He capped the season off with an 8 catch, 129 yard, 1 touchdown performance against the Seahawks.

Positives

• Has the speed to make plays downfield
• Can make the tough catch in traffic
• Finished the 2002 season very strong, averaging over 50 yards a game during the second half of the season

Negatives

• Has had a lot of trouble staying healthy
• Has scored only 3 TDs in the past 3 years
• The addition of David Boston may mean even fewer red zone looks for Alexander

Final Thoughts

Alexander is a fine overall athlete who runs good patterns, has good hands, and has the speed to get downfield. He has had more than his fair share of injuries so far in his career; and if that worries you, you should be aware that Alexander has already missed several mini-camp and training-camp practices earlier this year with a groin injury.

I, however, am of the opinion that his past injuries have been flukes, and that he has as good a chance of remaining healthy as any other tight end in the league. I also believe he will be used as a receiver a lot more in 2003 than he was in 2002, and has a pretty good chance of finishing the year as a top 10 fantasy tight end. However, he will probably not get enough looks in the red zone to become a real fantasy force. Nonetheless, he should be a nice value pick in the later rounds.

Quotes from the P.O.D. Message Thread:

To view the entire P.O.D. thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here:

nerangers:
"I agree with most that was said here. Each year he is supposed to be the steal of the draft, but to be honest, I usually find someone on Free Agency that always out performs this guy. I was lucky to have him in 1998, but consider it a curse as well, because I always think he will get four TDs again!"

smlevin:
"Stephen Alexander has demonstrated that when healthy, he is productive. The problem is, one, health, number two the amount of that productivity in S.D. He is used primarily as a TE should be used - to block - and we can expect a lot of that role given LT and the Marty-ball emphasis on the run. In other words, his use will be sporadic."

gobosox:
"The only conclusion I can draw is that maybe the guy just can't stay healthy. With Brees entering his 2nd year, and LT and Boston keeping defenses honest, Alexander would appear to one of those TE's that could/should have a pretty decent year. Certainly as a player drafted in the 16th round or later, he has some upside."

rzrback77:
"I just don't trust his ability to stay on the field. I agree with Bosox that he has a good situation. I agree that he and Brees began to hook up together more in the last half of the season last year AND if he can tie those first two with starting the whole season, he does have upside especially drafting in the 16th round.

BUT, the reason he's going there is nobody thinks that he will be able to play all season. I would consider him there as a back-up if I draft a back-up."

Topes:
"I do have him in a couple leagues, because he was dirt cheap, and he'll get some yards. That said, Joe and Co have been pimping and over-projecting Alexander for three years running. They gave up on Fazande when the writing was on the wall, but the plugs for Alexander just keep coming."

Projections: