Wood's Thoughts:

If you had a crystal ball before last year's football season and knew with 100% certainty that:

• Eddie Kennison would lead the Chiefs in receiving with 53 receptions for 906 yards
• Free agent Johnnie Morton would be one of the biggest busts of the year
• No other WR would catch more than 20 passes
• Tony Gonzalez would see his yardage, receptions and YPC drop for the 3rd straight season
• Priest Holmes, the team's best player and most prolific receiver, would be injured for two games

…what would you have thought about Trent Green's fantasy prospects? Well, needless to say, you would've been wrong, very wrong. For those that didn't notice (and it seems like that includes quite a few of us), Trent Green had a fantastic season last year throwing for almost 3,700 yards, 26 touchdowns and just 13 interceptions. In fact, according to Footballguys scoring, Trent Green finished 8th among fantasy QBs last year.

What Trent Green accomplished last year was nothing short of phenomenal all things considered, and is a testament to both his skills as a passer and the offensive machinations of HC Dick Vermeil and OC Al Saunders. Remember, is about to enter his FIFTH season in this offensive system (he was the Rams starter before anyone had every heard of Kurt Warner, only to get hurt in the 1999 preseason).

Despite being a fantasy force to be reckoned with last year, Green isn't getting much attention in the early rounds this year. According to Antsports, Green is the 14th QB selected on average (in 12 team, performance mocks). Does that make sense? Is there a reason to expect Green to fall off somewhat this year? Let's take a look at how his situation has changed, if at all.

Defensive Improvements - Kansas City fielded one of the worst defensive units in the league last season, and as a result they were forced into shootouts frequently. This offseason, the team spent a majority of its resources on improving the defensive side of the ball (e.g., bringing in LB Shawn Barber, DE Vonnie Holiday, etc…) and some have suggested that, as a result, the Chiefs will pass less this season. I don't see that happening for a couple of reasons. One, I'm not sure that the additions made are in and of themselves going to solve the team's defensive woes. Two, even if they do, this is a dynamic offense with an aggressive coaching staff that has never shied away from throwing the ball.

Offensive Line - The Chiefs have one of the best, if not the best, offensive lines in football. The line buys Green plenty of time to step back in the pocket and read the defense, and barring significant injury, there is every reason to expect more of the same in 2003. Additionally, the team added talented depth via the draft in Brett Williams and Jordan Black.

Receiving Corps - As I already alluded; the Chiefs don't field a receiving corps that puts the fear of God in many defensive backfields. However, the team returns the same group of receivers this year that were able to provide Green with so many outlets. Another year in the Saunders/Vermeil system coupled with another offseason working together with Green can only help the team; it's certainly no reason to expect less. Additionally, early camp reports suggest that Johnnie Morton, who is undoubtedly better than he showed last year, is once again playing like he can be a major contributor.

Positives

• Veteran passer who is intimately familiar with the Vermeil/Saunders offensive system (this is his fifth year in the system)
• Returns all of his weapons, including arguably the game's best running back, tight end and offensive line
• Regardless of the team's defensive ranking, Vermeil is committed to an aggressive offensive attack
  

Negatives

• Unless Morton returns to the form he showed in his prime with the Lions, Green still has one of the least impressive wide receiver groups in the NFL
• Priest Holmes' hip injury, if more severe than currently perceived, could derail the entire KC offense
  

Final Thoughts

Trent Green is no flash in the pan. People forget that this guy was the 6th best fantasy QB in 1998 playing in a completely different offense (Norv Turner's system in Washington). Following that year, Dick Vermeil handpicked Green to be his QB with the Rams, where he absolutely tore it up in the preseason before succumbing to a season-ending injury, which opened the door for Kurt Warner. In 2000 Green again had a chance to play and, in eight games put up over 2000 yards, 16 TDs and just 5 INTs…he was again a top fantasy option when given the chance to start. Vermeil then made a move to acquire Trent to run the Kansas City offense upon taking over that job. This is a guy who, in three separate years, was an extremely productive fantasy QB. Why that should be any different this season, I don't know. Considering you can draft Green several rounds after others have reached for a QB of similar skill and production, he is a worthwhile consideration for team's looking to win their leagues. Draft accordingly.

Stuart's Thoughts:

Trent Green lost his top two wide receivers from 2001, and saw the production of his star tight end take a noticeable drop. How did Green respond? With a career high 26 TDs and 3,690 yards! Green and Priest Holmes led the Chiefs to the top offense in the league, totaling 6,000 yards and leading the league in scoring. What does Green have at his disposal?

• Perhaps the game's best RB, who when healthy doubles as one of the top receiving RBs in the league.
• Perhaps the best TE in the NFL, who is unquestionably one of the top receiving TEs in all of football.
• A quartet of wideouts, who combine experience and upside: Starters Johnnie Morton and Eddie Kennison, and young playmakers Marc Boerigter and Dante Hall.

Can Green improve on a strong 2002 season? Or will he have difficulties just matching a stellar season? The way I see it, Green's going to take a step or two back in 2003, despite how much I like both Green and the Vermeil system. There's no doubt about Green's ability, and Vermeil has had "Super" success in his third year with teams. However, too many things need to go right for Green to even stay afloat:

• For starters, the Chiefs finished tenth in the league in QB fantasy points. They were ahead of the Rams and Packers, and I expect both Warner and Favre to outperform Green this year.
• Green and company also ranked above fast finishers such as Matt Hasselbeck and Brad Johnson, who are in strong offensive systems in their own right.
• Wildcards such as Kerry Collins, Chad Pennington and Patrick Ramsey have a lot of positives in their favor. Suffice it to say, in the best of worlds it would be difficult for Green to repeat in the top ten.

When you factor in eight touchdowns from Marc Boerigter and 900 yards from Eddie Kennison, I think quite a bit went right for Green last year. The Chiefs led the league in scoring, so there's not a ton of room to improve-but perhaps worse yet, is Kansas City's improving defense. With a better defense, the Chiefs won't need to air it out as much, and fewer shoot outs will diminish Green's value.

Positives

• Has the best combination of running back/tight end in the league
• If Johnnie Morton, Dante Hall or Marc Boerigter can improve (none caught even 500 yards last year), Green should be able to hit the 4,000 yard mark. Remember, the Chiefs finished just outside the top ten in passing offense.
• Strong armed quarterback with decent mobility, in the fifth year in Vermeil's system
• Plays behind a fantastic offensive line
  

Negatives

• Improving defense should lead to a more balanced team, and less points for the Chiefs
• Does not have a star wide receiver, and his top two targets have question marks: Gonzalez has seen his numbers dwindle in the last two years, and the health and status of Priest Holmes is still up in the air.
• Doesn't provide much on the ground himself, and Priest Holmes vultures a lot of TDs.
  

Final Thoughts

I like Trent Green, but the quarterback position is very deep and talented right now. Green doesn't run like the stud QBs, and he doesn't have a star WR corps like the other star QBs. I don't see much upside with Green, unless one of the Chiefs receivers really improves. Green is the perfect candidate for a QBBC system, and would make a great QB2. He could be a QB1, but he's going to have a difficult time being a top ten QB in just about any scoring system.

Quotes from the P.O.D. Message Thread:

To view the entire P.O.D. thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here:

TheDirtyWord:
"Everyone knows how explosive the KC offense can be with a healthy Holmes, but the Chiefs also have the best TE in the business and a WR crew (Kennison, Boerigter, Hall, Morton) who seem to be gelling as a unit. None are stars, and Morton was a huge disappointment in 2002, but the bottom line is that Green is not wanting for targets.

To me, Green is a great value pick in Round 7 and seems to have turned a corner with regard to being a starting NFL QB and the Chiefs offense. I look for him to have another solid to perhaps, close to Pro-Bowl year."

smlevin:
"Green finished in the top-10 in most leagues last year after throwing only 470 times. He was effective, going for 26 TDs versus only 13 Ints, and he even showed a slight amount of running ability as he ran for 230 yards and a TD. I think Green is really hitting his groove in this offense - if he continues that groove through the preseason, he will be a tremendous pick from the 6th round or later. Pure gravy would be if any of his top-3 WRs turn into a go-to guy for him."

Deuce's Wild:
"Why would (the Chiefs) players have to do so much better? (Green) had 26 Tds last year and Collins threw for another. Gonzo is very capable of a more productive season, Boerigter had 8 Tds last year and Morton will definitely play better. In addition, Holmes may be involved more as a receiver than a runner this year in an attempt to keep him healthy....that's just MO though."

GibbyGarcia:
"Worst case scenario you get a top 10 QB in the mid-rounds. Best case scenario, you get a Warner 99'-like QB that ends up as one of the top 3. The latter may be the more realistic."

OSCAR GOLDMAN:
"Trent Green is a guy who I think can really put it together this year, IF a lot of things fall into place. Priest's health is the obvious, but if he is 100% and Gonzo rebounds that would bode well. Additionally, if one of the wide outs emerge as the clear cut guy, and there is enough of them that it certainly is possible, I think that Green could put up some serious numbers. My guess is that Holmes will be fine, Gonzo rebounds and Morton or Kennison improve just enough"

Projections: