Wood's Thoughts:

I don't have a lot of conviction about Trung Canidate this season, and for that reason, he's not likely to find his way onto many of my fantasy rosters. It's not that I don't recognize the opportunity Canidate has to play a significant role in the Redskins' offense; it's just that I could just as easily envision him being a complete disappointment who splits time with a host of other backs as I could him being a complete stud. But from what I've seen in early drafts and mocks, there will be at least one or two league owners who feel he will undoubtedly be a stud, meaning he'll be long gone before I think the risk/reward is justified.

There are four points at the heart of my uncertainty:

• Increased Opportunity - Remember that Trung, like Laveranues Coles, was targeted by Spurrier. The team traded for him in the off season, showing a commitment to him that warrants attention. Canidate has never had more than 95 touches in a season, and (barring injury) he's a lock to double if not triple that metric this year.



• Mixed Results in Past Performances - Trung very rarely got a chance to touch the ball with Marshall Faulk being so invaluable. To look at the one significant stretch of time he DID play (Weeks 6, 7 & 9 in 2001)...he rattled off three strong performances, two 100 yard rushing games and the other a 100 yard receiving game. In that three week span (the only three games he got at least 10 carries) he AVERAGED 120 yards rushing/48 yards receiving and 1.3 TDs. Project that out over a full season and you got obscene numbers (2,688 yards from scrimmage and 21 TDs). Yet, those that are at familiar with the NFL know that Canidate lost favor in St. Louis and couldn't retain his role as the team's top backup. The reasons were never fully explained but they related to fumbles (when given a chance as a returner primarily), attitude, and nagging injuries.



• Revamped Offensive Line - On the flip side, the Redskins did a lot in the offseason to strengthen their offensive line. Already possessing two of the better young tackles in the NFC (Jansen and Samuels), the team revamped its interior line by adding All Pro Randy Thomas, Dave Lovergne and others. This line could and should be effective after an adjustment period. If Canidate actually can earn and keep the primary ballcarrier role, he'll have a line that can help him gain yards.



• Effectiveness of the Spurrier FunNGun Offense - We just don't know if the Spurrier offense can succeed in the NFL. Last season, despite having few real weapons, many people believed Spurrier would be instantly successful. He clearly wasn't and is saying that he's learned his lesson; knowing that he needs to stick with one QB and upgrade the talent. I don't think you can look at Canidate as someone that will make a difference by himself, so how well other offensive players perform will go a long way in determining whether Trung has value.



• Competition for Carries - Spurrier has said openly that he plans on using all the backs on his roster because they each have different talents. Even though Trung was brought in as the main guy, Ladell Betts was a 2nd round pick and Kenny Watson showed strong inside running ability in limited action last year. If Canidate isn't a runaway success, I believe he could be competing for carries all season long.
  

Final Thoughts

The aforementioned issues add up to a lot of risk. When you get down to it, Canidate was a talented backup on an explosive offense who fell into the doghouse. Now he's with a new team with a chance to be the feature back, but you know that he's one or two big mistakes away from splitting time with the likes of Kenny Watson, Ladell Betts and Chad Morton. Canidate must show he's capable of holding onto the ball, sustaining a heavy workload, and creating big plays on a team that has other newly acquired weapons.

Something tells me Canidate isn't going to end up a "good" or "solid" player, rather he'll either emerge as a bona fide stud or be a complete fantasy bust. Since I have no confidence in either direction, I'll likely pass on him unless he falls far enough that the risks are outweighed by the rewards.

Stuart's Thoughts:

Trung Canidate was acquired by Washington because he possesses two very attractive qualities: he's fast, and he's cheap. Canidate's salary isn't high, and he only cost Washington a fourth round pick. His speed is well documented, and he has a career average of 5.1 yards per carry. The big question on most fantasy minds is whether he will be the featured back in the offense. Unfortunately for us, I don't think he will. Last year, no team used their backup RBs more than the Redskins-RBs besides Stephen Davis racked up over 1,500 total yards of offense. That's a tremendously high figure, and it wouldn't shock me to see them in four digits again this year. Why is that?

Ladell Betts is a strong runner who rushed for 214 yards the last two weeks of the season. The 5-10, 221 pound Betts admitted to being much more confident and comfortable in year two under Steve Spurrier. Will Betts win the starting job; probably not. Will he touch the ball at least 100 times, and perhaps many more? Most likely. Remember, Steve Spurrier drafted him in the third round last year, meaning he not only knows the system better than Canidate, but he cost the Redskins more to acquire.

Kenny Watson overachieved last year, with a surprising 787 yards in sixteen games. He totaled over sixty yards in seven of the team's games, and also had a pair of 110 yard rushing performances. Watson first has to make the team, but he will be utilized if Spurrier chooses to keep four RBs.

Chad Morton is one of the most impressive athletes on the Redskins roster. Diminutive but with great speed and strength, Washington didn't pay him all that money to use him in just the return game. Expect him to get about fifty touches at halfback.

It would be difficult for any back to get a lion's share of the touches on this team, and Trung Canidate is not Marshall Faulk. Canidate's speed is intriguing, but I've done a 180 on his situation. Originally, I thought a speed back with good hands would be a fantasy gem in the Fun N' Gun offense-however, he's actually in a poor situation. With three other NFL caliber backs on squad, and with a coach who would throw it every play if he could, Canidate's likely being overvalued significantly in most drafts.

Positives

• Great speed and solid hands make him a strong fit for Spurrier's offense



• Is considered the starting RB, and may be relied on more with an inexperienced QB



• Totaled 504 yards and over 125 yards in each of a three game stretch when Marshall Faulk was injured in 2001

Negatives

• Canidate has fumbling and durability issues



• Looks like he'll be sharing the rock with at least two other RBs



• In a three year career, he's made more negative than positive headlines



• Very unproven, and did absolutely nothing last year

Final Thoughts

Canidate is coming off a dreadful season, where he averaged 2.8 yards per carry and lost his backup role. I find it hard to get excited about Canidate, and he would have to fall well below where he's going in most mock drafts to make his way on my roster. I know fantasy players are in love with upside, but Canidate offers way too much downside for this risk-averse owner. Ladell Betts several rounds later seems like better value.

Quotes from the P.O.D. Message Thread:

To view the entire P.O.D. thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here:

Winning IS Everything:
"Trung is an interesting prospect. He was an early draft reach for the Rams, showcasing Marshall Faulk like speed in college. It is true that Trung is a speed demon, but we have yet to see natural running instinct from him. Speed is no good when you hesitate to the hole. If Trung would dance less and just run, he has top 10 possibilities."

Fantaholic:
"Now, you have to factor in the idea that this guy couldn't even make Mike Martz happy as a primary back-up!! He lost the back up position to a rookie on a team that was ideal for his talents on turf, built for speed. He couldn't even get that right. Now, was it his performance or was it his attitude? I'll bet it was a bit of both. Which leads me to believe that if this kid is going to explode he's going to need a coach/organization with patience that is willing to let him go through some growing pains as a starter and watch him fumble the ball a few times to boot. Neither of which he's going to get from Spurrier and Snyder."

Frenchy Fuqua:
"I think Spurrier will rotate his RBs this year like he did with QBs and RBs last year. I think somewhere he said if there little difference in talent we'll use'em all. Keep in mind Ladell Betts was Spurrier's 2nd round pick last year and played well at the end of last season. He doesn't have Canidate's speed but may be a better RB in all other areas and has been in Spurrier's system a year longer. I think Canidate will start off as the featured back the first 2-3 games maybe get 15-18 carries over that span. After that I see it being RBBC the rest of the way or until someone steps up."

whelpley:
"The problem with Trung has never been his ability (besides some fumbles). He just doesn't have the body to withstand a full season of pounding. He is one of those guys that will have a 150 yard, 2 TD performance followed by four weeks of 20 yards because of nagging injuries."

tjmii:
"I don't have a lot of faith in Canidate making good in his new situation. There's a reason he was run out of St. Louis and in Washington there are at least two other capable backs on the roster that are going to push him for playing time. Not to mention the fact that he looked flat out terrible in the first preseason game. It's not as though Spurrier has a long history of keeping guys in the game when they're not performing either."

Projections: