Rushing Matchups

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The
Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for
that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box
when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean
he's not a starter in your league. If Priest Holmes is playing the
toughest rush defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough
matchup that week. He's also your starter. In the same way, if the
worst RB on your roster has a "great" matchup, that doesn't
necessarily mean you start him, it just means he'll likely fare better
this week than he normally would.

Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.

Let's jump to it.

Joe

Week 11 Rushing Matchups

By Mark Wimer with Joe Bryant

Bye Weeks are over!

Buffalo's Travis Henry vs. The Houston Defense (Great Matchup)

Buffalo has truly stunk up the joint in their last two games, scoring only 11 points in 2 contests. Travis Henry had 22/124/0 rushing in the loss to Kansas City, and managed 21/80/0 vs. Dallas' tough run D, so he is doing his part, yardage-wise - but the paucity of scoring has kept his fantasy value depressed recently. 227/774 yards (a poor 3.4 ypc average) is what the team has managed this season, so Henry has actually been doing way better in terms of gaining yards than he has been most of the season.

Houston has been fairly poor in this phase of the game all season, averaging 137 rushing yards per game (29th in the NFL) and they have surrendered 10 rushing scores. Stephen Davis racked up 30/153/0 against them two weeks ago, while the Bengals (without Corey Dillon) crushed them for 57/240/3 last week (yes, 57 rushes against them in one game - go with what works, I guess). LB Jamie Sharper was a busy man last week, with 9 solo tackles and 8 assists (6th best fantasy LB in the land).

The Bills are pretty healthy right now, listing Jonas Jennings (hip, questionable) while Houston continues to miss the services of starting DE Gary Walker (toe, out) and backup LB Antwan Peek (foot, out). Starting LB Charlie Clemons (ankle, questionable), DE Corey Sears (ankle, questionable) and DT Junior Ioane (shoulder, probable) are also listed.

The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 47F and a low of 38F with a 10% chance for precipitation. Outstanding football weather, in other words.

Henry has started to move the ball in this phase of the game, but the end-zone is scarce lately. Houston gives up yards and points, so this is a good chance for Henry to get on track again.

Carolina's Stephen Davis vs. The Washington Defense (Great Matchup)

DeShaun Foster got his chance to shine vs. the Buccaneers last week, and blew it, going 22/56/0 rushing and 1/-2/0 receiving. He's no Stephen Davis - we believe that if there is a way for Davis to play in this game, vs. Steve Spurrier and the Redskins, he will be on the field on Sunday. He looked great in the loss to the Texans two weeks ago, with 30/153/0 rushing (his ankle got sore and stiffened up on him after the game, which kept him out of the game last week). He has been almost a lock for 30 carries and 100+ yards week in, week out, so his fantasy owners devoutly hope he makes it back on the field Sunday. We will keep you updated all week long as information becomes available.

Washington was ripped for 28/125/1 by the Seahawks last week, and trampled for 40/208/2 by the Cowboys two weeks ago - it's pretty easy to run on the Redskins right now. They have been soft all year, ranking 26th in the league allowing an average of 128.7 rushing yards per game, with 9 rushing scores surrendered, so recent weeks have come as no surprise.

Washington lists DT Jermaine Haley (hand/shoulder, questionable), LB LaVar Arrington (knee/hand, probable) and DE Bruce Smith (hand/knee, probable). Carolina says that Davis is probable to go on the initial injury report of the week.

The forecast for Ericsson Stadium calls for a high of 61F and a low of 42F with a 10% chance for precipitation. Great football weather, in other words.

Davis is a top back, and the Panthers love to pound the ball - plus the vengeance factor to motivate Davis as icing on top. Look for them to enjoy great success on Sunday against the soft Redskins.

Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The New York Jets' Defense (Great Matchup)

Edgerrin James wound up watching from the bench last week, as Ricky Williams struggled to try and help his team overcome the Jaguars. It was a strange sight, but ended in failure - we doubt James will get benched again this week.

Anyway, James has slapped down 64/237/1 rushing and 12/50/0 receiving in his last three games, with a poor 15/44/0 rushing and 6/26/0 receiving effort last week. The Colts as a team have ran for 239/801 yards (a disturbing 28th in the league with a 3.4 ypc average - which is way too low) - their OL isn't doing the job run-blocking, at least so far.

The Jets were trampled for 52/169/1 by the Oakland RBBC, and were hit for 33/115/1 by the Giants two weeks ago. The team is dead last in the NFL at rush defense, averaging a pathetic 155.1 yards allowed per game, with 10 rushing scores given away so far. They are easy to run on and easy to score on.

Indianapolis lists OL Adam Meadows (knee, questionable) and Tarik Glenn (knee, doubtful), backup RB's James Mungro (knee, questionable), Brian Allen (head, questionable), Ricky Williams (ankle/shoulder, probable) and Dominic Rhodes (knee, probable). The Jets will be playing without DE John Abraham (groin, out), while LB's Sam Cowart (knee), Victor Hobson (back) and Morris Lewis (hip/back) are all probable.

This game is being played in the RCA dome - weather is not a factor.

James can be an explosive player, and the Jets are terrible. Advantage, Indianapolis.

Kansas City's Priest Holmes vs. The Cincinnati Defense (Great Matchup)

In the laugher over the Browns last week, the Chiefs ran for 27/88/2 as a team, but Priest Holmes had 19/92/2 on the day (a negative end-around caused the strange stat line). Holmes added 7/66/0 receiving, so he had a typically big day. Over his last two games, Holmes has 34/175/5 rushing and 10/92/0 receiving - he's a fantasy point machine in 2003.

Cincinnati is in the bottom half of the NFL vs. the run in 2003, allowing an average of 127.4 rushing yards per game (25th), with 7 scores given away so far. In the game against Houston, Domanick Davis and company struck for 19/140/1, and two games ago the Cardinals had 37/161/0 against this group. The Bengals are playing even worse than their average indicates in this phase lately.

KC lists RB Tony Richardson (hand, questionable), T John Tait (ankle, questionable) and G Will Shields (shoulder, probable). The Bengals are good to go.

The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 54F and a low of 42F with a 10% chance for precipitation. Nice football weather, if the forecast holds up.

Holmes is a top producer in 2003, and the Bengals are generous in this phase of the game. A big edge flows to the visitors' all-world running back.

Minnesota's Moe Williams/Michael Bennett vs. The Oakland Defense (Great Matchup)

So far, Moe Williams is getting the ball about twice as often as Michael Bennett as the Vikings continue to work Bennett back into the mix. The team is in the midst of a 3-game losing skid, so they are very glad to be visiting the "super underachievers of the NFL", the Oakland Raiders, on Sunday. In his last 3 games, Williams has managed to scrape together 35/177/0 rushing and 17/171/2 receiving, while Bennett has 13/66/0 rushing and 5/37/0 receiving over his first 2 games of the year. Last week, their numbers were 12/45/0 rushing and 11/126/2 receiving for Williams and 5/23/0 rushing with 2/22/0 receiving for Bennett.

Oakland has been very vulnerable to the run this season - even against the worst attacks in the league. Detroit (who managed 20/17/0 rushing vs. Chicago last week) put up 33/112/1 against the Raiders two games ago, and the Jets pushed them around for 30/155/1 last week - you won't be surprised to learn that the Raiders are the 31st ranked team in the league in both rushing yards allowed (153.3 per game on average) and rushing TDs surrendered (11). They are that bad.

Part of Oakland's problem is injuries: starting DT's John Parrella and Dana Stubblefield have missed recent games (out and doubtful), as has backup DL Sam Williams (knee, out). Minnesota's starting OL and the RB's are in good health at this stage of the season, G David Dixon has a sore ankle (probable).

The forecast for Network Associates Coliseum calls for a high of 62F and a low of 47F with a 10% chance for precipitation. A great day to play a football game is on tap.

Only the Jets and Falcons have rushing D's that rival Oakland's for ineptitude. A huge advantage flows to the Viking's attack in this matchup.

New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The Atlanta Defense (Great Matchup)

Deuce McAllister has had a couple of quiet games, scoring-wise, and comes into this matchup with 52/211/0 rushing and 7/48/0 receiving in the 2 games before the bye-week. When he faced the Falcons in week 7, he had a great game, with 21/116/2 rushing and 1/0/0 receiving during the game. Bottom line here is that McAllister should get lots of opportunities to make good things happen in this game.

The Falcons are among the league's worst rush defenses: they gave up 28/128/1 vs. Philadelphia two weeks ago, and 19/124/1 to the Giants last week. They are 30th in the NFL allowing an average of 144.4 rushing yards per contest, and the worst in terms of TDs allowed, with 14. LB Chris Draft had a great fantasy outing in the win over the Giants, with 12 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 1 sack (4th best fantasy LB last week).

The Falcons' backup DL Travis Hall missed last weeks contest with a neck injury (doubtful). DE Brady Smith is probable to play through his sore ankle. New Orleans is coming into the game off a bye week, and lists G LeCharles Bentley (knee) and G Kendyl Jacox (knee) as questionable, while backup RB James Fenderson is doubtful (foot).

This game is being played in the Superdome, so weather isn't an issue.

Atlanta's rush defense stinks, and McAllister is a great back. He should be great on Sunday.

Atlanta's Warrick Dunn/T.J. Duckett vs. The New Orleans Defense (Good Matchup)

Warrick Dunn got the start last week, and Dunn got the job done against the stunned Giants. He trampled them, big-time, for 25/178/1 rushing (and 1 catch for -2 yards), while the Falcons as a team threw down 37/216/3 (Duckett had limited touches - 7/33 - but punched in 2 scores). It was the third week in a row Dunn led the team in rushing - he should be the starter again this week, for sure. The Falcons are tied for 4th in the NFL in yards per carry, averaging 4.7 a rush. The last time Dunn played New Orleans, in week 7, he busted a 69 yard TD run, and finished the day 6/82/1 rushing with 2/8/0 receiving, while T.J. Duckett put up 14/42/0.

New Orleans was stout against the Buccaneers' attack in week 9 (18/56/0 rushing), but got trampled by Stephen Davis and friends in week 8 (39/223/2). They haven't been too good in this phase all season, ranking 28th in the NFL allowing an average of 129.4 rushing yards per game, with 7 scores surrendered so far.

Atlanta's OL is struggling through some injuries right now, with RG Kynan Forney dealing with a strained shoulder (questionable). New Orleans is coming off a bye, and lists DE Darren Howard (wrist) and LB Darrin Smith (groin) as questionable, while DE Willie Whitehead is probable (knee).

This game is being played in the Superdome, so weather isn't an issue.

Dunn is pretty hot right now, while New Orleans has been consistently vulnerable in this phase most games. Advantage, Falcons.

Baltimore's Jamal Lewis vs. The Miami Defense (Good Matchup)

Jamal Lewis got back on track last week, with 27/111/1 rushing in the loss to St. Louis. He has been a consistently productive fantasy back in almost every game this season, and with new QB Anthony Wright under center this week the Ravens are almost certain to continue to lean heavily on Lewis' legs in the coming weeks. In his past 3 games, Lewis has racked up 80/313/2 rushing and 7/65/0 receiving, good for 8th on the fantasy RB board in FP per game.

Miami hasn't been playing very well in this phase lately, surrendering 38/101/1 to the Titans' stable last week, and 35/115/1 to Edgerrin James and company in week 9. That's significantly worse than their season average of 81.4 rushing yards allowed per game - and 2 of the 5 scores they have allowed this year came in the last two weeks. In the absence of Zach Thomas, LB Tommy Hendricks had a big game, with 14 solo tackles and 4 assists (3rd best fantasy LB last week).

Baltimore's rushing attack enjoys good health at this point in the season, although backup Chester Taylor is dinged (leg, probable). LB Zach Thomas is questionable (groin), while DT Larry Chester is probable (hamstring/quadriceps).

The forecast for Pro Player Stadium calls for a high of 84F and a low of 70F with a 20% chance for precipitation. It should be a beautiful day for a football game.

Jamal Lewis is a top-shelf back, and the Dolphins have been softer
than usual in this phase recently. This looks like a good matchup for Lewis.

Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson vs. The Kansas City Defense (Good Matchup)

As of mid-week, Corey Dillon is questionable to play on Sunday - but, given recent attitude problems on Dillon's part and the success of Rudi Johnson last week, we believe that the Bengals will let him rest that groin injury until he's 110%. Marvin Lewis indicated that the team is leaning towards letting Dillon get completely healthy before returning him to the field "I want to get Corey back healthy as quick as we can," Lewis said. "We've got guys that deal with different things. This is the first time (Dillon) has been injured to this extent. . . . A couple of other veteran players that we have on this team, their roles have changed. Sometimes, I can't just be a hard (guy) and say, 'This is the way it is,' because I lose them, and it's important that I don't lose them."(Cincinnati Enquirer, 11/11/03 article by Mark Curnutte). All Johnson did last week was to rush the ball 43 times for 182 yards and 2 TDs - he's had 78/317/4 rushing and 4/34/0 receiving in the last 3 games.

Kansas City contained the Browns to 21/80/1 last week, and allowed 26/133/0 to the Bills two games ago. They rank as the 20th rush D in the land so far in 2003, allowing 122.8 yards rushing per game, but are stingy in the red-zone with only 6 rushing scores surrendered to date.

Kansas City's starting MLB Mike Maslowski tweaked an ankle last week (questionable), while DT's Ryan Sims (ankle, probable) and Eric Hicks (neck, not listed) were slightly injured. Reserve LB Fred Jones (foot, probable) missed the game last week. Cincinnati lists OL Matt O'Dwyer as questionable to play. Dillon is doubtful, while RB Kenny Watson (ankle) is probable.

The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 54F and a low of 42F with a 10% chance for precipitation. Nice football weather, if the forecast holds up.

Johnson looks strong, while the Chiefs are mediocre at rush defense until you get near the red-zone. This looks like a good but not great matchup for the Bengals.

Denver's Clinton Portis vs. The San Diego Defense (Good Matchup)

Clinton Portis, Mike Anderson and company spanked the Chargers for 33/197/1 the first time these teams played, with 12/129/0 for Portis and 16/65/1 for Anderson. Of course, Anderson was just suspended for four games due to a drug-related violation of the NFL substance abuse policy - Rueben Droughns is the new lead-blocker for Portis. In his last game, vs. New England, Portis had 26/111/1 rushing and 4/20/0 receiving, so he headed into the bye week hot. Denver is 5th in the NFL with 267/1269 yards, which ties them for 4th with a 4.7 ypc average. Portis and company have been getting the job done all season.

San Diego limited the explosive Vikings' backfield to 23/110/0 last week, after losing grip of Anthony Thomas two weeks ago (31/111/2). They are currently the 24th ranked rush D in the land, allowing an average of 126.7 yards per game, with 8 rushing scores allowed to date.

OT Ephraim Salaam may be back this week (knee, questionable), C Tom Nalen (ankle) and G Dan Neil (thumb) are probable, and Plummer looks good in the early going so the Broncos are getting healthier. San Diego lists DE Raylee Johnson (foot, doubtful) and DE Marcellus Wiley (ankle, probable).

The forecast for the Mile High Stadium calls for a high of 53F and a low of 36F with a 10% chance for precipitation. Good football weather is coming to the high plains this weekend.

Portis is a top back, while the defense in San Diego isn't very impressive most weeks. Despite the loss of Anderson, we say advantage, Denver.

Houston's Domanick Davis vs. The Buffalo Defense (Good Matchup)

Domanick Davis was back to form last week, with 15/104/1 rushing (with a long of 51 yards) and 1/11/0 receiving. Stacey Mack missed the game due to a knee injury, despite being listed as probable on the Friday injury report. This week, look for Davis to stay the #1 RB on this squad. He has 52/287/3 rushing and 9/35/0 receiving in his last 3 games, good for 7th among all fantasy RB's in FP per game during that span. He is a major part of the game plan in Houston, and tends to bust long-gainers at least once a game.

Buffalo battled the Cowboys to a low 10 point total last week, but their RB stable managed 35/122/0 on the day. Priest Holmes and company spanked the Bills for 24/100/3 the game before. Those totals are in line with the mediocre season ranking the Bills have compiled - an average of 112 rushing yards allowed per game (14th in the NFL), with 8 scores surrendered to this point.

The Texans list G Milford Brown (knee, doubtful) and G Todd Washington (shoulder, probable), along with Stacey Mack (knee, probable). Buffalo is fairly healthy right now, with only reserve DL Ron Edwards (shoulder, out) likely to sit again this week.

The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 47F and a low of 38F with a 10% chance for precipitation. Outstanding football weather, in other words. Domanick Davis is one of the better producers in the league right now, and the Bills are average in this phase at best - advantage, Houston.

New York Giants' Tiki Barber vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Good Matchup)

The Giants were stunned by Atlanta last week, but Tiki Barber pulled his weight, with 16/120/0 rushing and 10/38/0 receiving in the loss. Dorsey Levens plunged in the teams' only score, so he has now vultured TDs from Barber in consecutive games - it looks like Tiki Barber will need to bust a big run if he is to score a TD. At least the number of carries for Levens dropped from 11 two weeks ago to 2 last week. The Giants as a team have 243/986 yards this season, for a respectable 4.1 yards per carry average. Barber and company rushed for 41/180/0 against the Eagles in week 6 (19/79 for Barber and 16/64 for Levens). Barber fumbled twice though Sunday and must get that under control.

Philadelphia averages 113.1 rushing yards allowed per game (15th in the NFL) and has surrendered 6 rushing scores to date. 37/241/1 is what Green Bay slapped on them last week, and Atlanta hit them for 28/131/1 two weeks ago - Philadelphia is not doing well in this phase lately, not at all.

Philadelphia lists DT Darwin Walker (abdomen, questionable) and LB Carlos Emmons (thumb, probable) on the initial injury report. New York is good to go.

The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 54F and a low of 38F with a 10% chance for precipitation. Fine football weather, in other words.

The Giants have a great back in Barber, and the Eagles are struggling to stop the run. Advantage, Giants.

Oakland's Running Back By Committee vs. The Minnesota Defense (Good Matchup)

Charlie Garner was injured on the first play from scrimmage last week, and did not return to action. In his absence, Tyrone Wheatley (23/75/0), Justin Fargas (16/62/0), and Zack Crockett (10/15/1) split the load among themselves. Against the worst rush defense in the NFL, the Raiders as a team ran for 52/169/1. Over the last 3 weeks (in 2 games), Garner has 16/75/1 rushing and 1/6/0 receiving (37th among fantasy RB's in FP per game); Wheatley has racked up 27/86/0 rushing and 4/43/0 receiving (38th); Zack Crockett has 12/18/1 rushing and 1/16/0 receiving (49th) and Justin Fargas has compiled 19/74/0 (55th). As you can see, no one guy is getting a pile of fantasy points in this situation.

Minnesota's rush D is falling apart in a big way, with 26/211/4 given away to the San Diego Chargers last week, and 34/261/0 surrendered to the Packers two weeks ago. They are giving away a ton of yardage in this phase lately. The 10 rushing scores surrendered this season ties them for 3rd-worst in the league. They look more like a welcome mat than a defensive front right now.

Oakland lists C Matt Stinchcomb (shoulder, out), G Frank Middleton (quadriceps, doubtful), G Mo Collins (knee, questionable), RB Charlie Garner (back, questionable) and T Lincoln Kennedy (calf, questionable). LB Raonall Smith (hamstring, questionable) is on the Viking injury report.

The forecast for Network Associates Coliseum calls for a high of 62F and a low of 47F with a 10% chance for precipitation. A great day to play a football game is on tap.

The Vikings' defensive front has crumbled, while the Raiders are finding ways to run as a team (even if no one player racks up consistently good statistics) - advantage, Oakland. Keep an eye through the week on who will be running the ball for the Raiders.

Philadelphia's Correll Buckhalter/Brian Westbrook/Duce Staley vs. The New York Giants' Defense (Good Matchup)

Duce Staley led the Eagles in carries last week, with 10/53/0 (2/45/0 receiving), while Correll Buckhalter struggled to a 9/23/0 performance and Westbrook tested his ankle with 5/1/0. Nobody really dominated the Packers, but it was good enough to help Philly to a soggy 17-14 victory in less-than-ideal conditions. If Staley has finally clawed his way out of Coach Reid's doghouse, this RBBC becomes even more muddled than it has been all season long. Westbrook seemed to be emerging as the top back, but the injury has slowed him and he was ineffective against the Packers. Buckhalter had a couple of decent games but struggled last week. It's a mess, from the fantasy perspective.

The Giants got trampled last week by a resurgent Warrick Dunn, and surrendered 37/216/3 TDs to the cellar-dwelling Falcons last week. This followed a 38/132/0 game against in-town rival Jets. The Giants are in the bottom 1/2 of the league in run defense this season, with 122.9 rushing yards allowed per game (and 8 rushing TDs surrendered), so they are playing down to that level and worse lately. In week 6, the Philadelphia backfield compiled 23/87/1 vs. the Giants.

Westbrook is listed as probable to play this week, while G John Welbourne (knee, doubtful) and Correll Buckhalter (ribs, questionable) are more problematic. The Giants look fairly healthy in this phase of the game, with only DE Kenny Holmes (knee, probable) on the report.

The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 54F and a low of 38F with a 10% chance for precipitation. Fine football weather, in other words.

The Eagles will find a way to compile a respectable rushing total against the Giants, but none of the stable is likely to have a huge fantasy outing in the current climate.

Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The Detroit Defense (Good Matchup)

Shaun Alexander played pretty well against the Redskins last week, with 22/94/1 rushing in the game. He's the 10th ranked fantasy RB in FP per game over the last 3 weeks, with 62/228/2 rushing and 10/71/1 receiving in that span - Alexander is reliably producing solid fantasy points in recent weeks. The Seahawks as a team have 247/1120 rushing this season, and are tied for 7th in the NFL with a 4.5 yards per carry average - the OL is doing it's job for Alexander. Maurice Morris has been effective as a change-of-pace back in recent weeks, with 9/97/0 rushing during the past 3 games.

Detroit held up against Anthony Thomas very well last week, with 24/66/0 surrendered to the Bears as a team. They were also effective against the Raiders in week 9, keeping them to 26/94/1 on the day. It's much better play than their season average would indicate - the Lions have allowed an average of 111.7 rushing yards per game, with 7 rushing scores surrendered to date.

Alexander's (ankle, probable) squad is looking good, health-wise. The Lions' reserve LB James Davis separated his shoulder on Sunday, and is not to play this week. LB Barrett Green will play despite his sore groin (probable)

The forecast for Seahawks Stadium calls for a high of 51F and a low of 43F with a 50% chance for precipitation. If the rain falls hard around game-time, footing and ball-handling could become issues in slick conditions.

Alexander is a steady-to-explosive back, depending on the week. Detroit has been tough in this phase in recent weeks, but in games against less-than-stellar offenses. Expect them to be closer to their season average this week against Alexander and company.

Arizona's Marcel Shipp vs. The Cleveland Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Marcel Shipp has run for a ton of yards in his last three games (85/367/0 rushing and 10/68/0 receiving), but his lack of TDs is keeping his fantasy production mediocre (17th in FP per game among all RB's during that span). Last week, he had 22/63/0 rushing and 6/40/0 receiving against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Cleveland has been tough on the run in recent games, allowing only 30/94/0 to NE week 8; but bleeding for 27/88/2 to KC in week 10. This season, they average 125 rushing yards allowed per game (22nd), but have only given up 6 rushing scores all year. LB Andra Davis was the top fantasy LB last week, with 11 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble and 1 pass defensed.

Arizona's OL is nicked up, with C Pete Kendall (neck) and G Cameron Spikes (thumb/ankle) probable to play. DT Alvin McKinley went on IR with a knee injury, DE Kenard Lang (back) and LB Ben Taylor (back) are questionable while LB Kevin Bentley has a sore elbow (probable).

The forecast for Cleveland Browns' Stadium calls for a high of 49F and a low of 41F with a 30% chance for precipitation. If the rains come down hard, footing and ball handling may become issues on Sunday.

Shipp is pretty hot, but the Browns have limited yardage in this phase in recent weeks, and don't usually give up multiple scores. We call it a neutral matchup.

Chicago's Anthony Thomas vs. The St. Louis Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Anthony Thomas didn't make the grade in the game vs. Detroit last week, with a disappointing 21/61/0 performance rushing the ball. He had been excellent in recent games, with 52/172/2 to his credit in the past two weeks - but didn't get the job done last week. The Bears are tied for 14th in the NFL with a 4.1 ypc average so far in 2003 - they are credible when they run the ball, usually.

Saint Louis won the game last week, but they were outplayed by the Ravens' unit in this phase, allowing 38/145/1 to the Ravens as a team (27/111/1 by Jamal Lewis). 35/165/0 is what the 49ers did to them the game before - the Rams aren't too tough in this phase at the moment. That's been true often this season, as the Rams average 113.6 rushing yards allowed per game (16th in the NFL), although they make it tough in the red-zone with only 5 rushing scores given away so far. The DL was a fantasy bonanza for IDP leagues last week, with Brian Young topping the DL charts with 3 tackles, 1 sack and 3 fumble recoveries; Tyoka Jackson racking up 3rd place honors with 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 sacks, and 1 forced fumble; and Grant Wistrom checking in at 4th with 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 1 sack. Whew!

St. Louis lists DT Damione Lewis (ankle) DE Leonard Little (pectoral) and DT Brian Young (wrist) as questionable, while DT Ryan Pickett (ankle) and LB Scott Shanle (hamstring) are probable. Chicago's backup RB Adrian Peterson is questionable (ankle), as is C Olin Kreutz (ankle). The forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 51F and a low of 43F with a 10% chance for precipitation. Nice football weather, if the forecast holds up.

The Rams are soft until you get close to the end-zone, but Thomas struggled mightily last week - sounds neutral to us.

Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Once upon a time, this game was known as the Bay of Pigs game - we aren't quite back to that low-point, but neither of these teams is living up to high expectations at this point in the season. Green Bay's Ahman Green has been a fantasy standout in the last 2 games, though, with 50/329/1 rushing and 8/84/2 receiving (#1 among fantasy backs in FP per game during the last 3 weeks). 29/192/1 rushing and 3/32/1 receiving led his team in both categories last week in poor conditions at Lambeau Field. The Packers lead the NFL in average yards per carry with a stellar 5.5.

Tampa has been tough to run on in recent weeks, limiting the Stephen Davis-less Panthers to 31/78/0 last week and constraining Deuce McAllister to 26/110/0 the week before that. This year, the team ranks tenth in the NFL with 104.1 rushing yards allowed per week, on average, with a mere 5 rushing scores allowed all season. Simeon Rice was a terror vs. the Panthers, getting 4 solo tackles, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble in the game to rank 6th among all fantasy DL last week.

The Packers enjoy relatively good health right now, Tampa lists LB's Ryan Nece (ankle, questionable), Derrick Brooks (wrist, probable) and Dwayne Rudd (knee, probable).

The forecast for Raymond James Stadium calls for a high of 82F and a low of 67F with a 10% chance for precipitation. Downright balmy weather, which should be good for both teams.

Two top units lock horns in this game - neither looks like it is in a position to dominate the other before the fact.

Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman vs. The Green Bay Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Tampa Bay has dropped two games in a row to divisional opponents, in both cases by a field-goal margin of victory. Part of the problem has been under whelming production in the rushing phase of the game - Michael Pittman has gained 58/211/0 rushing and 12/100/1 receiving over the last 3 games, managing just 12/50/0 rushing (5/47/0 receiving) last week against the Panthers - 19/89/0 rushing as a team. Tampa ranks 25th in the NFL with 234/873 yards rushing this season, with a poor 3.7 yards per carry average.

Green Bay has been middle-of-the-road in this phase recently, not managing to shut anyone down, but not getting truly trampled, either. They kept the Eagles down to 30/92/1 in the game last week, and allowed 25/125/1 to the Vikings two weeks ago. Those numbers are in line with their season average of 114.4 rushing yards allowed per game, with 8 scores surrendered this season.

Green Bay lists DE Chuckie Nworkorie as probable to play (hip). Tampa says C Austin King (knee) and G Jason Whittle (shoulder) are questionable and probable, respectively.

The forecast for Raymond James Stadium calls for a high of 82F and a low of 67F with a 10% chance for precipitation. Downright balmy weather, which should be good for both teams.

Two mediocre units hook up in this matchup - neither looks like it is in a position to dominate the other.

New York Jets' Curtis Martin/LaMont Jordan vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Neutral Matchup)

LaMont Jordan is starting to eat into Curtis Martin's touches, and put up 7/69/1 in the game vs. Oakland (a long of 39) to out-gain Martin (19/61/0). Both backs caught a pass for minimal gain. Jordan got 6 carries (for 12 yards) in the New York Giants' match, while Martin had 28/108/0 and 2/1/0 receiving. Over the past 3 weeks, Martin has 67/279/0 rushing and 6/8/0 receiving - 29th among all fantasy backs in FP per game. Jordan is 35th, with 16/87/2 and 2/15/0 over the last 3 games.

The Colts held Ricky Williams and company to 14/47/1 two weeks ago, but were trampled by Fred Taylor and Jacksonville last week (who gained 38/174/3 as a team). The team averages 126.4 rushing yards allowed per game, and have surrendered 8 rushing scores to date. They have been up and down in recent weeks, obviously.

Indianapolis lists LB Jim Nelson (clavicle, out), DT Montae Reagor (chest, doubtful) and DE Robert Mathis (shoulder, probable). The Jets are healthy in this phase of the game.

This game is being played in the RCA dome - weather is not a factor.

Indianapolis sports a sub-par rush D; the New York Jets are a mediocre rushing team - this one looks pretty even to us.

San Francisco's Garrison Hearst/Kevan Barlow vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Thus far in the season, Garrison Hearst has compiled 130/595 yards and 3 scores rushing with 19/186/1 receiving; Kevan Barlow has amassed 98/427/1 rushing and 15/131/0 receiving. It's about a 57-43 split in terms of touches (149 vs. 113) - pretty close, but Hearst ranks 19th in FP per game while Barlow is 38th, on the strength of 4 TDs vs. 1 TD and better production on Hearst's part in his chances (4.5 ypc vs. 4.35 ypc for Barlow). In the last game before the bye-week, Barlow actually out-gained Hearst in total yardage (107 combined yards vs. 92 for Hearst), and the touches were split almost evenly - 17 rushes and 1 reception for Hearst, 14 rushes and 3 catches for Barlow.

Pittsburgh smothered the usually-prolific Cardinal's attack last week (28/96/0 rushing), and contained the Seahawks (25/98/1) the week before - they are playing pretty well right now. This season, they have tended to limit yardage fairly well (92.0 rushing yards per game, 6th in the NFL), but allowed a lot of scoring earlier this season (9 TDs allowed in this phase). Last week, Jason Gildon was the 2nd best fantasy LB in the land, with 8 solo tackles, 3 assists and 3 sacks.

San Francisco's projected starting OL has played together for exactly 23 plays this season, out of 594, and figures to not have starting LG Eric Heitmann again, who injured his left ankle (his earlier injury this season was in the right ankle) - he may miss up to 4 weeks. C Jeremy Newberry is probable despite an ankle injury. Pittsburgh is pretty healthy in this phase.

The forecast for 3Com Park calls for a high of 66F and a low of 51F with a 10% chance for precipitation. That's great football weather, if the forecast holds up.

San Francisco is one of the best rushing attacks around, while the Steelers play very good run defense - sounds even to us.

Tennessee's Eddie George/Chris Brown vs. The Jacksonville Defense (Neutral Matchup)

In their first meeting of the year, George and Robert Holcombe put up 38/133/2 in a combined effort (George had 27/88/2, while Holcombe ran for 11/45/0). Last week, George split carries with rookie Chris Brown (12/46/0 for Brown, 15/43/1 for George rushing; 1/4/0 and 1/3/0 receiving, respectively). George's 42/131/3 rushing and 4/16/0 receiving in his last two outings puts him at #9 in FP per game among RB's for the last 3 weeks.

21/47/0 is what the Colts managed against the Jaguars last week, while Baltimore had 30/103/1 two weeks ago. They are 4th in the league, allowing only 87.9 yards rushing per game on average, but coughed up a lot of TDs early on this year (9 total) - they haven't been allowing a bunch of scoring lately, though.

Tennessee lists T Matt Marting (knee, questionable). DE Lionel Barnes is questionable for Jacksonville.

The forecast for the Coliseum calls for a high of 58F and a low of 45F with a 20% chance for precipitation. That should make for a fine afternoon.

George did well against these Jaguars in their last game, but Jacksonville has stiffened their rush D since then. This looks like a neutral matchup to us.

Cleveland's James Jackson vs. The Arizona Defense (Tough Matchup)

William Green has missed the teams' two most recent games due to an injury and a team suspension - in his absence, James Jackson has posted games of 17/66/1 rushing with 1/18/0 receiving last week; and 15/71/0 and 2/4/0 in the New England game week 8. Jackson hasn't been awesome, but he's been adequate. Those outings put him at #24 among all fantasy backs in FP per game.

Today, William Green was suspended for four games by the league following a repeat violation of the Substance Abuse Program. So once again, it'll be James Jackson at running back.

The Cardinals limited the Steelers to 27/87/0 rushing last week, and held Cincinnati to 18/48/1 in week 9 - they are tough to run on right now. The Cards are near the top ten in rush defense this season, allowing 105.1 yards a game, with only 6 scores surrendered to date. Obviously, they have been even better than those good numbers indicate in recent weeks.

The injury report for Cleveland lists Green as probable despite his shoulder injury, RB R.J. Bowers is questionable with a sore ankle. Arizona has played without backup LB Gerald Hayes (shoulder, out) in recent weeks, and DE Calvin Pace has a sore groin (probable).

The Cardinals play stout run defense, while the Browns are only mediocre at running the ball. Advantage, Arizona.

Dallas' Troy Hambrick/Adrian Murrell vs. The New England Defense (Tough Matchup)

Adrian Murrell was much more effective vs. the Bills last week than Troy Hambrick was (16/76/0 vs. 13/33/0), and he saw significant action 2 weeks ago in the victory over Washington (9/20/0 rushing and 2/22/0 receiving vs. Hambrick's 21/100/2 rushing). There is some speculation in the Dallas press that Hambrick may ultimately end up as a full-back, perhaps by as early as December 2003. One thing is for sure, if he keeps getting outplayed, Hambrick won't be the man for long. For now, he will keep his starting job, but if he fails to produce, the early hook is now hanging over his head for sure. His 45/158/2 rushing and 2/11/1 receiving over the past 3 games puts him at #28 among all fantasy RB's in FP per game.

Two games ago, the Browns eked out 19/84/0 against the Patriot's defensive front, and in the game prior to the bye the Broncos were contained to 29/114/1 in their loss to New England. They have been pretty tough to run on all season (92.4 yards allowed per game, on average), but have given away 8 rushing scores - clearly, the Patriots are bouncing around their average performance in recent weeks in this phase of the game.

Dallas' starting OT Ryan Young missed last week's game with a bum knee, and LG Larry Allen has struggled to stay on the field during many games this season. Neither is on this week's injury report. New England comes into the game rested after a late bye, and lists LB Ted Johnson (foot), DT Richard Seymour (leg) and DT Ted Washington (leg) as questionable.

The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 46F and a low of 34F with a 20% chance for precipitation. As this is a night game, cold conditions will make for frozen fingers and a hard football - ball handling may be an issue at points.

The Cowboys keep finding ways to gain yards (313/1198 yards and a 3.8 ypc average) this season, but they are a pretty mediocre bunch. The Patriots have a solid rush defense, and should have the edge at home.

Detroit's Shawn Bryson/Olandis Gary vs. The Seattle Defense (Tough Matchup)

Talk about falling apart at the seams - the Lions averaged less than a yard per carry as a team last week - 20/17/0 - in their field-goal fest victory over the Bears. It shouldn't surprise you to hear that the Lions are dead last in the NFL with 208/718 yards to this point in the season (26th in the NFL in yards per carry, at 3.5). Shawn Bryson is the 36th ranked fantasy back over the last 3 games (in FP per game), while Olandis Gary is 53rd. The Lions' rushing attack is basically pathetic.

The Seahawks let the Redskins move the ball very efficiently on the ground last week (32/137/0 surrendered), and also gave up over 100 to the Steelers two weeks ago (30/105/0). They are in the middle of the NFL at run defense this season, averaging 118.2 rushing yards allowed per game, with 8 rushing scores surrendered earlier in the season. Lately, they have stiffened in the red-zone, though.

Seattle lost DT Norman Hand (arm, out), while DE Chike Okeafor (knee, questionable) may be able to go.

A bad attack faces a middle-of-the-road rush defense - we give the nod to the home-team Seahawks.

Jacksonville's Fred Taylor vs. The Tennessee Defense (Tough Matchup)

The first time these teams met, back in week 8, Fred Taylor had a rough time, gaining 9/48/0 on the ground with 4/21/0 receiving on the day. Since then, he has enjoyed better games (59/278/2 rushing and 10/51/0 receiving in the last 3 weeks). Jacksonville as a team ranks 17th in the NFL averaging 4.0 yards per carry, so the OL is doing a decent job of run blocking so far. Last week, Taylor enjoyed a great outing with 28/152/2 rushing against the Indianapolis Colts.

The Titans are very tough to run on, ranking first in the league with an average of only 73.6 rushing yards per game allowed, and they have grudgingly allowed a mere 5 rushing scores all season. 16/59/0 is what Ricky Williams and the Dolphins managed last week.

Jacksonville lists G Vincent Manuwai (foot, doubtful). Tennessee is in good shape.

The forecast for the Coliseum calls for a high of 58F and a low of 45F with a 20% chance for precipitation. That should make for a fine afternoon.

If recent history is any guide, this is definitely a tough matchup for Taylor.

Miami's Ricky Williams vs. The Baltimore Defense (Tough Matchup)

Ricky Williams went from bad to worse last week, only managing 13/37/0 rushing the ball vs. Tennessee; he had 13/36/1 two weeks ago vs. Indianapolis. For a back of his talents, that is pathetic production, folks. His OL is getting beat off the ball, even knocked back on their heels into the offensive backfield, and the passing game has gone south the last two games. The Dolphins' offense is in a sorry state at the moment.

Baltimore's defensive front averages only 93.7 rushing yards allowed per game in 2003, and has surrendered only 5 TDs this year. Last week, the box score read 21/47/2 to Marshall Faulk and company (but both TDs were set up by turnovers, providing very short fields to the offense); in week 9 it was 33/134/0 to Fred Taylor and company. They are slightly off their season pace in recent weeks, but the D isn't the whole problem - the offense has set up their opponents with costly turnovers.

Miami lists C Tim Ruddy (knee, questionable), G Jamie Nails (elbow, probable), and G Todd Perry (eye, probable). Ricky Williams is probable to play despite a calf injury.

The forecast for Pro Player Stadium calls for a high of 84F and a low of 70F with a 20% chance for precipitation. It should be a beautiful day for a football game.

The Dolphins can't run or pass the ball well right now, which makes it tough to generate fantasy points for Williams owners - don't look for things to get better against the stout Baltimore front.

San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs. The Denver Defense (Tough Matchup)

The first time around, Tomlinson was contained by the Bronco's defense to 16/93/0 rushing and 5/27/0 receiving. Back in week 2, though, the Broncos still had Ian Gold and John Mobley at LB - a lot has changed since then. Tomlinson was key in the teams' second victory, with 16/162/2 rushing and 6/45/0 receiving in the game last week. He also put many fantasy franchises over the top with 200+ combined yards of offense. Tomlinson is the 4th ranked fantasy back in FP per game over the last 3 weeks - he's pretty hot right now.

Denver held New England to 26/69/0 rushing in their most recent game, but gave up 37/151/1 to Jamal Lewis and company the week prior. They currently rank 9th in the NFL allowing 96.1 rushing yards per game, and have given away only 4 rushing TDs this season - the Ravens game was atypically bad (against an awesome back).

Reserve OL Corey Raymer broke his right hand last week (questionable), and starting C Jason Ball (ankle, questionable) and starting OT Solomon Page (ankle, questionable) missed the game entirely. The OL is thin for the Chargers right now. Denver lists LB Donnie Spragan as questionable with a foot injury, and Daryl Gardener still has a sore wrist (probable).

The forecast for the Mile High Stadium calls for a high of 53F and a low of 36F with a 10% chance for precipitation. Good football weather is coming to the high plains this weekend.

The Broncos are always tough, especially at home. This is a big mountain for Tomlinson to climb.

St. Louis' Marshall Faulk vs. The Chicago Defense (Tough Matchup)

Marshall Faulk had two easy TDs to his credit last week, but very little else as the Rams offense sputtered and coughed through a poor outing. 20/48/2 rushing and 3/6/0 receiving hardly qualifies as a quality fantasy outing, unless you play in a basic scoring league. He was less than impressive in his first game back, with a long run of 16 yards on the day.

Chicago had a strong performance against LaDainian Tomlinson two weeks ago (limiting him to 16/61/1), then crushed the "power" running attack of Detroit (who rank dead last in the NFL in total rushing yardage in 2003, with 718 yards) - they managed a whole 20/17/0 as a team last week. The Bears are playing well in this phase of the game lately. They haven't always, though, ranking 19th in the NFL allowing 122.3 rushing yards per game on average, with 9 scores given away to date. Alex Brown was the 5th best fantasy DL last week, with 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble and 1 pass defensed.

St. Louis is fairly healthy. Chicago is OK, health-wise, too, in this phase of the game.

The forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 51F and a low of 43F with a 10% chance for precipitation. Nice football weather, if the forecast holds up.

St. Louis' offense looked horrible last week, while the Bears have been stifling opposing backs lately. This looks like a tough visit to hostile environs for the Rams.

Washington's Trung Canidate/Rock Cartwright vs. The Carolina Defense (Tough Matchup)

Rock Cartwright and Trung Canidate basically split the carries last week, but Cartwright was much more effective going 13/81/0 rushing with 2/15/0 receiving, while Canidate mustered 15/34/0 rushing and 1/10/1 receiving on a trick play. Ladell Betts isn't likely to be back from his broken forearm yet, so expect to see these two share the work again this week. The Redskins have 231/930 rushing as a team this year, for a respectable 4.0 ypc, so when they do bother to run they are moderately effective at it.

Carolina has been mediocre in this phase in 2003, allowing an average of 106.1 rushing yards per game, ranking 12th in the NFL (but only 4 rushing scores all season long). Last week, in the win over Tampa, they surrendered 19/89/0, while two weeks ago in the "trap" loss at Houston, they allowed an uncharacteristic 30/118/1 to Domanick Davis and company.

Besides Betts, the Redskins list C Larry Moore as doubtful (foot). RB's Sultan McCullough (hand), Chad Morton (ankle) and Bryan Johnson (concussion) are all listed, the first two as questionable, while Johnson is probable. Carolina says that DE Mike Rucker is probable (ankle).

The forecast for Ericsson Stadium calls for a high of 61F and a low of 42F with a 10% chance for precipitation. Great football weather, in other words.

Don't expect a ton of touchdowns from the Washington backs in this game, and you won't be disappointed. This will be a tough matchup for the limited Redskin's backfield.

New England's Kevin Faulk/Antowain Smith vs. The Dallas Defense (Bad Matchup)

In the game against the Broncos week 9, the Patriots handed the ball off to Antowain Smith 17 times for 55 yards but 0 scores, while Kevin Faulk rushed the ball 5/20/0 but caught 5/52/0 (2/26/0 for Smith). Over their last two games, Faulk has been the more valuable fantasy starter in FP per game, with 28/116/0 rushing and 11/110/0 receiving, while Smith has managed 20/64/0 rushing and 2/26/0 receiving. The Patriots as a team have had trouble moving the ball effectively so far, and average 3.6 yards per carry this season (25th in the NFL).

The Cowboys have been tough to run on all year long (3rd in the NFL allowing only 85.1 rushing yards per game) and they have allowed the least # of rushing TDs in the NFL this year, with only 3 given away to this point in the season. Last week, they contained the Bills to 25/100/0, and 2 weeks ago allowed 16/89/0 to the Redskins committee.

Dallas is very healthy coming into the game, with LB Markus Steele questionable (ankle) while New England is rested after a week 10 bye. RB Fred McCrary is questionable (leg).

The Cowboys are perhaps the best rush defense in the league, while the Patriots mount an anemic attack most weeks. Advantage, Cowboys.

Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis/Amos Zereoue vs. The San Francisco Defense (Bad Matchup)

Jerome Bettis ran for 18/54/0 last week vs. Arizona, and caught 1 pass for 8 yards. Over his last 3 games, he has amassed 47/146/0 rushing and 1/8/0 receiving - 47th among all fantasy RB's in FP per game during that period of time. Not too good, folks. Amos Zereoue, in his limited 3rd down back role, has fared worse, 14/60/0 and 5/32/0. Fantasy-wise, there isn't much interesting going on in this offensive backfield right now.

In the St. Louis game, the 49ers held the Rams to 8/9/0; while in week 8 it was 44/221/1 surrendered to Marcel Shipp and the Cardinals. Usually, the 49ers are closer to their average of 91.7 rushing yards allowed (5th in the NFL) and they are tough to score on, with only 5 rushing scores surrendered to date.

San Francisco lists DT Travis Kirschke (knee), and LB Jeff Ulbrich (ankle) as questionable, while DE Andre Carter (back) is probable to play. The Steelers continue to miss starting OT Marvel Smith (neck, doubtful). RB Jerome Bettis has a sore knee (questionable).

The forecast for 3Com Park calls for a high of 66F and a low of 51F with a 10% chance for precipitation. That's great football weather, if the forecast holds up.

A weak attack against a top rush defense equals a bad matchup in our book.