Hi Folks,
Here's our look at the Rushing Matchups for this week.
PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The
Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for
that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box
when it comes to helping choose your lineup.
Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT
mean
he's not a starter in your league. If Priest Holmes is playing the
toughest rush defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough
matchup that week. He's also your starter. In the same way, if the
worst RB on your roster has a "great" matchup, that doesn't
necessarily mean you start him, it just means he'll likely fare better
this week than he normally would.
Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.
Let's jump to it.
Joe
Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson / Corey Dillon vs. The San Diego
Defense (Great Matchup)
Rudi Johnson was sensational against the Chiefs last week, with 22/165/0 rushing
and 2/22/0 receiving - the young man is really in top form in recent weeks,
ranking as the 3rd best fantasy RB in the land with 73/381/3 rushing and 4/30/0
receiving. The Bengals have won 2 straight games with him in the lineup as the
starter, and are now tied with Baltimore atop the AFC North. But understand
that Corey Dillon is also in the mix.
San Diego's defense, of course, is pathetic. They are 27th in the NFL allowing
an average of 134.1 rushing yards per game, and have coughed up 8 rushing scores
so far in 2003. Last week, Clinton Portis feasted on them for 25/106/0 and backup
Quentin Griffin added 15/55/0 rushing - the Bolts gave up 205 total rushing
yards to the Broncos. Two weeks ago, the Vikings racked up 23/110/0. The Chargers
look more like turnstiles than defensive players right now (and it's been that
way all season). LB Donnie Edwards did his best to stem the tide last week,
with 13 solo tackles and 5 assists (2nd best fantasy LB last week), but he can't
do it alone.
Both teams come into the game in relatively good health - Cincinnati lists
G Matt O'Dwyer (foot, probable), while the Chargers say DE Raylee Johnson (foot)
is doubtful and DE Marcellus Wiley (ankle) is probable.
The forecast for Qualcomm Stadium calls for a high of 61F and a low of 44F
with a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be great football weather if the
forecast holds up.
Rudi Johnson is hot, and San Diego is stone cold and Corey Dillon is the wildcard.
A huge edge flows to the Bengals in this game.
Jacksonville's Fred Taylor/LeBrandon Toefield/Chris Fuamatu
Ma'afala vs. The New York Jets Defense (Great Matchup)
First off, the early word on Fred Taylor's injury situation is this: "It's
pretty sore, man; it's pretty sore," Taylor said as he limped out of the
locker room Monday. "It's just stiff more than anything. I got a thigh
bruise to one of the legs, and I got an [injured] knee to the other one."
(Jacksonville Times-Union article by Vito Stellino, 11/18/03). The early indications
are that Taylor can go and that LaBrandon Toefield and Chris Fuamatu Ma'afala
may also see time for the Jaguars this week. Last week, in relief of Taylor,
Toefield saw 6/20/0 rushing and 1/9/0 receiving, while Fuamatu Ma'afala had
9/40/0 rushing and a critical power-outage on 2 chances from first-, second-and
goal situations in the waning moments (both runs ended up yielding lost yardage)
against the tough Titan's defense. Keep an eye on this.
The Jets' rush defense has been pathetic all season long, ranking 32nd in the
league allowing an average of 159.2 yards rushing per game, with the 31st ranked
total of 14 rushing scores allowed so far in 2003. Edgerrin James tortured them
for 36/127/3 last week, and the Raiders put up 59/162/1 as a team against the
Jets two weeks ago. They just can't seem to slow down (let alone stop) the opposition
in this phase of the game. LB Marvin Jones (9 solo tackles, 3 assists, and 1
pass defensed - the 7th best IDP LB last week) is doing everything he can, but
he's only 1 man.
Injuries will probably keep DE John Abraham (groin, questionable) sidelined
this week, and LB Quincy Stewart (knee) is probable to play. Meanwhile the Jaguars
list Taylor as probable for the game, while G Vincent Manuwai (foot) is questionable.
The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 58F and a low of 48F with
a 30% chance of rain. At this time of year, rain would probably mean windy conditions
and a slick field - footing and ball-handling could become issues in this game
if the rain comes down hard around game-time.
Whoever ends up carrying the ball for the Jaguars should enjoy a productive
day against the door-mat Jets' defense.
Kansas City's Priest Holmes vs. The Oakland Defense (Great
Matchup)
Kansas City's run at an undefeated season ended last week when Priest Holmes
was held in check by the Cincinnati Bengals - 16/62/0 rushing and 4/36/0 receiving
just wasn't enough to propel the Chiefs to victory, and was a let-down to fantasy
owners everywhere, especially those playing in basic scoring leagues. Even given
the mediocre game, Holmes remains the 5th best fantasy RB over the last 3 weeks,
with 35/154/2 rushing and 11/102/0 receiving in his 2 games during that span.
The Chiefs are tied for 11th in the NFL with a 4.3 ypc average - the big guys
up front have got the job done most weeks this season. Last week's poor showing
has to be considered an aberration, not a trend, folks. Back in week 7, Holmes
racked up 27/123/1 against the Raiders, so he's had good success against them
this year.
Oakland's rush defense clamped down on the Vikings last week, allowing a mere
95 yards of rushing to Minnesota as a team last week (1 rushing score). Two
weeks ago they were more giving to the Jets, allowing 155 yards rushing and
a score on 30 attempts. This year, the Raiders lurk near the bottom of the league,
giving away an average of 147.4 rushing yards per game and surrendering a total
of 12 rushing scores to date - they usually play more like they did vs. the
Jets than they did vs. the Vikings. Last week, DL Chris Cooper was the 4th best
fantasy lineman, with 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble and
1 fumble recovery. Unfortunately, Cooper has tested positive for the steroid
THG, so his presence on the field may be threatened in weeks to come.
Kansas City's starting G Brian Waters (shoulder sprain, questionable) was injured
in the last game. RB Tony Richardson is probable to play despite his broken
hand, as is T John Tait (ankle). Oakland's starting DE Trace Armstrong (shoulder,
out) and starting LB Travian Smith (knee, out) were injured last week, while
starting DT's John Parella (groin, out) and Dana Stubblefield (ankle, doubtful)
along with reserve DL Sam Williams (knee, out) missed the game last week. DT
Roderick Coleman is probable to play (shoulder).Oakland has injury woes along
their defensive front, obviously.
The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium calls for a high of 53F and a low of 27F
with a 50% chance of precipitation. The precipitation could range from rain
to sleet to snow, and if it's truly nasty in Kansas City the wind might howl
through Arrowhead stadium, making the temperature feel even colder than it is
due to wind chill. In those conditions, footing and ball handling could easily
become major issues in this game.
Kansas City has a top-notch attack, and the Raiders have been very vulnerable
in this phase of the game most weeks (and vulnerable to Holmes in particular)
- advantage, KC.
Baltimore's Jamal Lewis vs. The Seattle Defense (Good Matchup)
Jamal Lewis is having a career season, with 240/1244/7 rushing and 16/128/0
receiving through 10 games. He is the 3rd ranked fantasy back this season in
FP per game. Last week, he battered the Dolphins for 26/88/0 rushing (Miami
has the 3rd-ranked rush D in the NFL at this point in the season). Over the
last 3 weeks, Lewis has racked up 74/267/1 rushing and 4/37/0 receiving, in
the face of almost constant pressure in the tackle box (thanks to a series of
back-ups under center with Kyle Boller sidelined for the season). Those numbers
put him at #19 among all fantasy RB's in FP per game over the last 3 weeks.
Seattle contained the toothless Lions last week, allowing a total of 17/81/0
to the tandem of Gary and Bryson (with a few rushes from Harrington thrown in).
Two games ago, they were pierced for 32/137/0 by the Redskin's RBBC - they haven't
coughed up any TD's lately, though. For the season, the Seahawks rank as the
16th rush D in the league, allowing an average of 114.5 yards per game and allowing
8 rushing scores to date. They are solid but not spectacular in this phase of
the game.
Starting MLB Randall Godfrey has a sternum bruise (questionable), starting
DT Norman Hand is out with a biceps injury, and backup LB D.D. Lewis has a sore
hip (questionable). LB Anthony Simmons was suspended for a game last week due
to violations of team rules - Simmons is expected to start as usual this week,
though. Baltimore is in good health in this phase of the game. Seattle's defensive
front is softer in the middle with Hand sidelined - there is a potential weakness
there for Lewis to exploit.
The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 66F and a low of
55F with a 20% chance of rain. It should be a fine day to play some football.
Jamal Lewis has been stymied somewhat by the lack of scoring opportunities
in recent weeks, thanks to a punch-less passing game - he'll have chances to
make good things happen against the mediocre and injury-depleted Seahawks this
week.
Denver's Clinton Portis vs. The Chicago Defense (Good Matchup)
Clinton Portis rushed for 25/106/0 against the Chargers last week, with 2/6/0
receiving, while his team dominated the Chargers 37-8 last week. He has 51/217/1
rushing in the last 3 weeks, with 6/26/0 receiving. Portis checks in at 13th
on the RB board based on those numbers. He is an extremely explosive back, as
is show by his club's 4.6 ypc average this season - the OL is doing their job
opening up holes for Portis to run through.
Chicago held Marshall Faulk and company to 25/112/1 last week, and embarrassed
the Lions by constraining them to 20 rushes that yielded only 17 yards. The
Bears are 21st in the NFL this season, allowing an average of 121.3 rushing
yards per contest, and they have allowed 9 rushing scores so far. They are a
pretty mediocre bunch, the Lions' performance notwithstanding.
T Ephraim Salaam (knee, probable), C Tom Nalen (ankle, probable) and G Dan
Neil (thumb, probable) are listed on the initial injury report for the Broncos.
LB Joe Odom (groin, doubtful) and DE Alex Brown (leg, probable) are hurting
on the Bears' side of the ball.
The forecast for Mile High Stadium calls for a high of 29F and a low of 18F
with a 30% chance of precipitation. It could be very windy, cold and snowy at
game time, making footing and ball handling issues in this game.
Portis is a top shelf back, while the Bears are mediocre on a good day and
horrible on their worst days - advantage, Denver.
Detroit's Olandis Gary/Shawn Bryson vs. The Minnesota Defense
(Good Matchup)
After an embarrassing 20/17/0 effort as a team two weeks ago, the Lions' tandem
managed to get it in gear a little bit this week against Seattle, with 6/43/0
rushing for Olandis Gary and 8/35/0 for Shawn Bryson. They didn't put anybody's
fantasy team over the top with those numbers, but it was better than last week's
debacle. Neither of these guys is usually worthy of a fantasy start given the
lack of production from their OL this season (3.6 ypc average, tie for 26th
in the league) and the fact that the two basically split carries from week to
week. The last time these teams met, back in week 3, Bryson was the top back
with 17/49/1 rushing and 3/19/0 receiving, while Gary managed only 5/8/0 and
1/13/0.
Minnesota hasn't been strong in this phase at all lately, with an embarrassing
43/191/3 surrendered to the Raiders last week, and 26/211/4 given away to the
Chargers 2 weeks ago. The team is ranked 28th in the NFL allowing an average
of 135.2 rushing yards per game, and have allowed 13 rushing scores so far (3rd
worst in the NFL this season). They are pretty pathetic, basically, and have
been playing even worse than their poor season average in recent weeks.
Both teams come into this game in relatively good health, with Minnesota listing
only LB Raonall Smith (hamstring, questionable) on the injury report.
This game is being played in the Metrodome, so weather isn't a factor.
The Lions are one of the worst teams at rushing the ball in the NFL, but the
Vikings are absolutely horrible at run defense, and have been blown out in this
phase for two straight weeks. Don't expect miracles from Gary or Bryson, but
they are not likely to see a better matchup for the rest of the season. We still
don't recommend either one if you have more viable options, in any case.
Minnesota's Michael Bennett/Moe Williams vs. The Detroit
Defense (Good Matchup)
Neither Bennett nor Williams was very effective against the cellar-dwelling
Oakland rush defense (30th in the league vs. the run (147.4 per game allowed
on average), with 12 rushing scores allowed to date) - Williams managed 10/39/0
while Bennett put up 5/13/0. Part of the problem was that the Raiders got on
top of the Vikings early, forcing the team into a heavily pass-oriented approach.
Both players added significantly to their yardage in the passing phase (6/80/0
for Williams, and 2/59/0 for Bennett), so they weren't total fantasy busts (unless
you play in a basic-scoring league). Despite the shaky showing, Williams remained
among the top 10 of fantasy backs in FP per game (9th) during the last 3 weeks.
The last time these teams met, back in week 3, Moe Williams had 13/95/0 rushing
and 6/54/0 receiving (Daunte Culpepper punched in 2 scores on 2/16/2 worth of
work) - of course, Bennett was sidelined due to injury earlier in the season,
so he didn't participate.
The Lions gave up 2 rushing scores to the Seahawks last week (1 to Shaun Alexander,
and 1 to Matt Hasselbeck), and were shredded for 159 yards rushing (20/110/1
for Alexander, who led the team). The week before that, the Lions held Anthony
Thomas and company in check (24/66/0). Usually, the Lions' D is somewhere in
between those extremes, averaging 116.4 rushing yards allowed per game, 17th-ranked
in the NFL (with 9 rushing scores surrendered to date. They have been up and
down in recent weeks, obviously.
Both teams come into the game relatively healthy - Detroit lists LB's Boss
Bailey (shoulder, questionable) and Barrett Green (groin, probable). LB James
Davis remains sidelined by his shoulder injury.
This game is being played in the Metrodome, so weather isn't a factor.
The Vikings have a very good OL (tied for 8th in the NFL averaging 4.5 ypc
this season), while the Lions are a mediocre run defense most weeks. The advantage
flows to the home-team Vikings in this matchup.
New England's Kevin Faulk/Antowain Smith vs. The Houston
Defense (Good Matchup)
Antowain Smith did the heavy lifting against the Cowboys on Sunday night, with
16/51/1 rushing against the top-ranked Dallas defense. Kevin Faulk chipped in
with 8/11/0 rushing and 3/22/0 receiving last week - he wasn't utilized a whole
lot in the defensive slug-fest. It was the second game that Smith saw a majority
of the carries (33/106/1 rushing with 3/28/0 receiving vs. 13/31/0 rushing and
8/74/0 receiving for Faulk) - Smith is 29th among all RB's in FP per game during
the last 3 weeks, while Faulk is 52nd. As coach Belichick indicated earlier
in the year, the coaching staff is approaching this season with a RBBC approach
that will change from week to week depending on the weaknesses the Patriots
want to exploit in their opponents' defense.
Houston has been absolutely shredded by opposing rushers in recent weeks: Rudi
Johnson and the Bengals tore them up for 57/240/3 two weeks ago, and then Travis
Henry ran for 23/149/0 against them last week (the Bills had 28/181/0 as a team).
The Texans are 29th in the NFL allowing an average of 141.5 rushing yards per
game, with 10 scores surrendered to date. Jamie Sharper was the 6th best fantasy
LB last week, with 6 solo tackles, 6 assists, 1 sack, and 2 forced fumbles.
Despite Sharper's heroics, this unit is still very sub-par.
Houston continues to wait for starting DE Gary Walker (toe, doubtful) and reserve
LB Antwan Peek (foot, out). DE Corey Sears has a sore ankle (probable). New
England's starting FB Fred McCrary hasn't been on the field at game time for
a few weeks (leg, questionable).
The forecast for Reliant Stadium calls for a high of 76F and a low of 44F with
a 40% chance of rain. If the weather is really nasty with lots of rain, expect
the retractable roof to be closed, which will limit the amount of influence
the climate will have on this game.
Houston is sub-par, while the Patriots mount a fairly effective if unspectacular
attack. This looks like a good week to be a Patriot's back.
New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The Philadelphia Defense
(Good Matchup)
Deuce McAllister was a one-man wrecking crew against the soft Falcons last
week, gaining 28/173/2 rushing and 9/64/0 receiving as he personally put the
team on his back and carried them to victory in OT. A big problem this week
is that there just aren't many healthy receivers in the New Orleans' cupboard,
with TE Ernie Conwell lost for the season, and starting WR's Joe Horn (knee)
and Donte Stallworth (hamstring) both slowed and possibly sidelined due to re-injuring
old hurts. However, McAllister is one of the players who can make good things
happen even when the odds are stacked against him - don't count him out even
if neither Horn nor Stallworth can play. In his last two games, McAllister has
54/283/2 rushing and 13/80/0 receiving - 2nd best fantasy RB in FP per game
during the last 3 weeks.
Philadelphia has been pretty soft against opposing backs lately, allowing 19/111/0
to Tiki Barber last week (5.8 yards per carry), and getting rocked by the Packers
for 37/241/1 (a 6.5 yards per carry average) two weeks ago. They have been tough
to score on most of the year, with only 6 rushing TD's allowed so far, but are
mediocre when it comes to rushing yards allowed (112.7 per game, tied for 14th
in the NFL).
New Orleans has some injury issues on the OL: starting LG Kendyl Jacox missed
last week due to a knee injury (out), while LG LeCharles Bentley re-injured
his left knee in the game vs. Atlanta (questionable). Backup RB James Fenderson
is doubtful (foot). DE N.D. Kalu sprained his thumb last week (probable). DT
Darwin Walker (abdomen) is questionable, and LB Carlos Emmons (thumb) is probable.
The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 63F and a low
of 48F with a 20% chance of rain. It sounds like a great day for a football
game is on tap.
Deuce McAllister is one of the best in the game, and the Eagles have proven
to be very soft at rush defense if recent weeks. Even with the injury issues
dogging the Saints, we give the edge to McAllister.
Oakland's Running Back by Committee vs. The Kansas City
Defense (Good Matchup)
Now that third-string QB Rick Mirer is at the controls of the passing game,
the Raiders are relying on the running game more than ever - they ran the ball
21 straight times to open the victory over the Vikings last week, and rushed
the ball 76% of the time during that game (43 carries vs. 13 passes). It worked,
as the team managed to pull off a 28-18 victory - and you can expect more of
the same this week. In the last game vs. KC, the Raiders split the carries between
7 players, and amassed 25/100/1 as a team (Charlie Garner led the team with
10/32/0). With Garner out to injury, Tyrone Wheatley did the bulk of the work
last week, racking up 32/109/1 rushing and 1/6/0 receiving, with a big assist
from Zack Crockett (6/54/2 rushing with a long of 44 yards).
Kansas City was lit up by Rudi Johnson last week, to the tune of 22/165/0 rushing.
Two weeks ago, the Browns' backup RB James Jackson and company hit them for
21/80/1 - the Chiefs haven't been solid here lately. The team is in the bottom
tier of the NFL this season, allowing 130.5 rushing yards per game on average,
with 6 rushing scores allowed to date.
Garner is listed as doubtful to play due to his bad back, while Justin Fargas
has been placed on IR with his knee injury. G Frank Middleton is said to be
questionable with his sore quadriceps, as are G Mo Collins (knee) and T Lincoln
Kennedy (calf). C Barrett Robbins is probable with a knee problem. Kansas City
lists DE Eddie Freeman (toe) and DT Ryan Sims (foot, probable).
The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium calls for a high of 53F and a low of 27F
with a 50% chance of precipitation. The precipitation could range from rain
to sleet to snow, and if it's truly nasty in Kansas City the wind might howl
through Arrowhead stadium, making the temperature feel even colder than it is
due to wind chill. In those conditions, footing and ball handling could easily
become major issues in this game.
Oakland is finding ways to move the ball, and the Chiefs are pretty soft in
this phase. Wheatley and company should have good success against their arch-rivals
this Sunday.
Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook/Correll Buckhalter/Duce Staley
vs. The New Orleans Defense (Good Matchup)
Last week, it was Brian Westbrook's turn to shine again (one week after it
looked like Duce Staley might have been free of Coach Reid's doghouse), with
9/48/1 rushing and 5/60/2 receiving - it was a dominant fantasy performance.
This season, Correll Buckhalter has actually seen the most carries (81/316/5),
while Westbrook has gained the most yards (72/372/5) - Duce Staley has been
mostly 3rd-fiddle (56/236/2) - it is a RBBC, most definitely. However, when
Westbrook is 100% healthy, he seems to be the player who gets the most done
with the ball. With 14/49/1 rushing and 5/60/2 receiving in his last two games,
Westbrook has been the best fantasy back in FP per game in recent weeks (17th
on the RB board). As a team, the Eagles are tied for 6th in ypc this season
(4.6), so the OL gets the job done whoever's number is called the most by the
coaching staff.
New Orleans' D was ripped up by Atlanta's Warrick Dunn last week, to the tune
of 23/162/0 rushing with 2/23/0 receiving (T.J. Duckett plunged in a short TD
as well). In their previous game, vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Saints smothered
their opposition (18/56/0 rushing). Their normal performance this season is
closer to the Atlanta game than the Tampa game, though, as the team ranks 26th
in the NFL allowing an average of 133.3 rushing yards per game, with 8 scores
surrendered to date.
Philadelphia's G John Welbourne has missed some games in recent weeks due to
his knee injury, and is out this week. New Orleans has been doing without starting
LB Darrin Smith (groin, questionable), and DE Willie Whitehead is questionable
(knee).
The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 63F and a low
of 48F with a 20% chance of rain. It sounds like a great day for a football
game is on tap.
The Eagles' stable moves the chains week-to-week - unfortunately, no one guy
is consistently "the man". With Westbrook healthy again, look for
the coaching staff to utilize him, their most explosive back, more than the
supporting cast this week - it should be a good day to be a Eagles' back against
the soft Saints' defensive front.
San Francisco's Kevan Barlow/Garrison Hearst vs. The Green
Bay Defense (Good Matchup)
Barlow and Hearst continue to pound the opposition into submission - this past
week's victim was Pittsburgh, who watched Barlow rush the ball for 8/98/1 with
a long of 78, while Garrison Hearst carried 20 times for 67 yards. Hearst added
2/12/0 receiving to his total. Barlow has 22/174/1 and 3/31/0 in his last 2
games, while Hearst has 37/147/0 rushing and 3/24/0 receiving - they are 18th
and 34th on the fantasy RB board over the past 3 weeks on the strength of those
numbers.
The Eagles managed to put up 30/92/1 against the Packers two weeks ago, while
Thomas Jones exploded for 9/134/0 against them in the Tampa game last week.
The Packers are usually in between those extremes as far as yardage allowed
per game (118.4, 20th in the league) and they have surrendered 8 rushing scores
to date. LB Nick Barnett was the top IDP LB last week, with 7 solo tackles,
3 assists, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery and 2 passes defensed.
The 49ers continue to wait for OT Eric Heitmann to return from an ankle injury
(doubtful). RB Garrison Hearst (ankle) and C Jeremy Newberry (ankle) are probable
to play. Green Bay is in good health on this unit, with backup DE Chuckie Nwokorie
probable to play through his sore shoulder.
The forecast for Lambeau Field calls for a high of 52F and a low of 30F with
a 30% chance of precipitation. If it is sleeting or snowing at game time, the
winds could be swirling and it will be cold and slick on the field, causing
footing and ball-handling miscues for both teams.
The 49ers pack one of the best 1-2 punches in the nation, while the Packers
are mediocre at run defense. Advantage, San Francisco.
Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman/Thomas Jones vs. The New York
Giants' Defense (Good Matchup)
Coach Gruden signaled his willingness to make changes on the offense this week
when he benched Keyshawn Johnson for the rest of the season - change is in the
air, and Michael Pittman may be the next player to see his playing time plummet.
Last week, retread Thomas Jones showed explosiveness and desire in the loss
to Green Bay (9/134/0 rushing, with 2/11/0 receiving), while Pittman was once
again mired in mediocrity (8/18/0 rushing and 4/22/0 receiving). In the current
climate, Pittman's performance in recent weeks (36/116/0 rushing (a 3.2 ypc
average) and 15/118/1 receiving) may lead to increased opportunities for Thomas
Jones.
The Giant's defense hasn't been stopping opposing backs from scoring in recent
weeks - the Eagles' tandem of backs touched them for 21/62/2 rushing last week,
while Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett hit them for 32/211/3 in the prior game.
Those 5 scores represent half of the 10 rushing scores the defense has allowed
this season - the Giants average 116.8 rushing yards allowed per game (18th
ranked in the NFL this season).
New York's DE Kenny Holmes (knee, out) missed the game last week. Tampa was
down reserve OL Austin King (knee, not listed) last week.
The forecast for Raymond James Stadium calls for a high of 80F, with a low
of 63F and a 40% chance for precipitation. The game is on Monday night, so the
temperature will be closer to the low end of the scale, and if the rain comes
down hard around game time, the field could get sloppy and slow and the ball
would get slick - miscues become more common in such conditions.
New York's defensive front has crumbled in the last two games, while the Buccaneers
have shown flashes of potential - the Giants should give whoever runs the ball
ample opportunity to make good things happen on Monday night.
Tennessee's Eddie George/Chris Brown vs. The Atlanta Defense
(Good Matchup)
Tennessee may be winning games, but make no mistake: their rushing attack is
very weak. The team is 32nd in the NFL averaging a mere 3.0 rushing yards per
carry - to illustrate what that means, consider the top-ranked Packers (5.4
ypc average) in comparison. The Packers have rushed the ball one less time than
the Titans (307 vs. 308 for Tennessee), but have 1665 yards to show for their
efforts. Tennessee has 922 rushing yards on their 308 attempts - a difference
of 743 yards to this point in the season. Last week against the Jags, Eddie
George stayed true to form, with 20/73/0 rushing (Chris Brown had 3/2/0, and
Robert Holcombe 3/-5/0. The OL is not doing a credible job run blocking, not
by any stretch of the imagination. Eddie George is the 30th ranked fantasy RB
over the past 3 weeks, with 35/116/1 rushing and 1/3/0 receiving in 2 games.
There isn't much happening for the Titans in this phase of the game, fantasy-wise.
Atlanta's rush D isn't very impressive, ranking 31st in the league allowing
151 yards per game on average - they are worst in the league with 16 scores
given away, as well. Deuce McAllister ran through the Falcons like a hot knife
through butter last week (28/173/2), and the Giants scraped up 19/124/1 against
them even in defeat - the Falcons can't stop anybody, basically.
Tennessee has been missing reserve OL Matt Martin (knee, questionable) in recent
weeks. LB's Matt Stewart (right wrist, not listed), Chris Draft (neck, questionable)
and DL/LB Patrick Kerney (shoulder, questionable), DE Brady Smith (ankle, questionable),
were hurt in the game last week for Atlanta, deepening their depth problem at
the position if one or more can't go this weekend. Atlanta's squad was a fantasy
point bonanza for IDP owners last week: Three of their DL were in the top 10
- Patrick Kerney had 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 2 sacks (5th among fantasy
DL), Ed Jasper had 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 1.5 sacks (6th) while Ellis
Johnson had 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack and 1 fumble recovery - you could
say their DL harassed Aaron Brooks in a big way. Also, LB Keith Brooking had
a huge game, with 11 solo tackles and 3 assists - 4th best among fantasy LB's.
This game is being played in the Georgia Dome, so weather is not a factor.
The Titans won't see a more inviting matchup in 2003. Advantage, Tennessee
- even though they are weak, Atlanta is weaker.
Arizona's Marcel Shipp vs. The St. Louis Defense (Neutral
Matchup)
Marcel Shipp had an under whelming game last week, hampered by a bruised knee,
in which he put up only 9/23/0 rushing and 2/28/0 receiving in the Cardinals'
blowout loss to the Browns. Over the last 3 games, he has produced 59/225/0
rushing and 10/92/0 receiving, so last week was definitely an aberration. Everyone
on the team had a horrible game (Blake threw for 9/21 for 121 yards, 0 TD's
and 1 interception) - the offense just couldn't get going. This season, the
Cardinals are sub-par as far as yards-per-carry, with a 3.8 average (21st in
the NFL). Back in week 4, when these teams last met, Emmitt Smith was still
the running back (12/25/1 rushing), so recent history doesn't help us with this
matchup too much.
St. Louis has been hammered by the last two backs they have faced, giving up
23/92/1 to Anthony Thomas last week (26/95/1 to the Bears as a team); and they
got bull-dozed by Jamal Lewis two weeks ago - he put up 27/111/1 while the Ravens
rushed for 38/145/1 as a team. The Rams rank solidly in the middle of the NFL
this season, allowing an average of 111.7 rushing yards per game (13th ranked)
and they have surrendered 6 rushing scores to date (33% of them in the last
two weeks). Obviously, this unit could be playing better than they have recently.
Part of the Ram's recent problems is due to injuries - starting DT Damione
Lewis (ankle, questionable) and starting DE Leonard Little (pectoral, questionable)
missed the game last week. Arizona's unit is in good health, excepting Shipp's
knee bruise (probable), C Pete Kendall (neck, probable) and G Cameron Spikes
(thumb, probable).
The forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 58F and a low of 39F
with a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be a pleasantly cool day to play
a game of football in the desert, something you can't usually say about this
venue.
Shipp and Arizona usually mount a decent offense, but stumbled last week. St.
Louis is a mediocre rush defense that is not on top of its game right now -
sounds even to us.
Buffalo's Travis Henry / Joe Burns / Sammy Morris vs. The
Indianapolis Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Buffalo is in the midst of a three game skid, and got bad news on Monday -
starting RB Travis Henry (coming off perhaps his best game of the season) cracked
the fibula in his right leg just above the ankle last week. His status is still
uncertain for this week. Thus, the job likely falls to backup Joe Burns this
week. Sammy Morris could also see action, especially on third downs. Morris
can catch the ball, too, with 53/402/1 receiving to date in his pro career.
Morris missed most of the season recovering from abdominal surgery, but is in
fine health now.
The Colt's defense has been wracked by injuries in recent weeks, and it shows
in the unit's play. Last week, the lowly Jets managed to slap down 17/132/0
against the Colts; while 2 weeks ago it was Fred Taylor and friends rushing
for 38/174/3. The team is currently the 24th ranked unit in the NFL, allowing
an average of 127 rushing yards per contest, with 10 rushing scores allowed
to date. Not too good, folks.
The Bills list Henry as questionable to play. Also injured, starting OT Jonas
Jennings (hip, questionable) would be welcomed back. T Mike Williams has a shoulder
injury from his truck wreck last week (questionable ). Indianapolis lists about
half of the defense on the injury report: LB Jim Nelson is out (collarbone),
DT Montae Reagor is questionable (chest), and LB David Thornton is probable
(shoulder).
The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 54F and a low of
43F with a 30% chance of rain. If the rain comes down hard around game time,
the field may get slick and ball handling will become a bigger issue.
If Henry can't go, Burns and Morris are backup talents facing a sub-par rush
defense that is very banged up. Given the uncertainty, we think that neither
squad is likely to dominate the other.
Cleveland's James Jackson vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Neutral
Matchup)
James Jackson stepped in for the suspended William Green last week, and managed
to help his team out with 19/45/2 rushing and 2/8/0 receiving. The numbers were
not earth-shattering, but they will do in a pinch (especially if TD's are weighted
heavily in your league). This season, Cleveland ranks 26th in the NFL generating
an average of 3.6 yards per carry on their 254/927 yards worth of work. Jackson
wasn't in the lineup in week 5, so recent history is no guide in this matchup.
Pittsburgh was trampled by the 49ers on Monday Night, allowing a total of 34/169/1
to the 49ers during the rout. Two weeks ago, it was the Cardinals grinding out
a total of 28/96/0 - they have been up and down in recent weeks on D in the
Steel City. They currently rank as the 9th best run D in the league, giving
away an average of 99.7 rushing yards per game (with 10 scores allowed to date).
They have been generous with rushing scores in 2003, as you can see.
Backup RB R.J. Bowers is questionable with a sore ankle, T Chad Beasley (toe)
is probable to play. Pittsburgh's unit is in good health, with LB Clark Haggans
probable to play (ankle).
The forecast for Cleveland Browns Stadium calls for a high of 57F and a low
of 47F with a 20% chance of rain - great football weather, if the forecast holds
up.
Don't expect Jackson to make miracles, and you won't be disappointed. However,
he is bound to see a lot of touches - it's up to him to make something happen
against the reeling Steeler's defensive front.
Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The San Francisco Defense (Neutral
Matchup)
Green Bay leads the NFL in yards-per-carry in 2003, with 5.4 ypc to date. They
have 1 rush less than the 32nd ranked Titans, but 743 yards more, due to the
disparity in ypc between the two clubs (5.4 vs. 3.0). Over the last 3 weeks,
Ahman Green has been the #1 fantasy RB in the land, with 71/438/2 rushing with
11/99/2 receiving during that span. Last week, he embarrassed the Buccaneers
for 21/109/1, while understudy Najeh Davenport hit for 13/70/0.
San Francisco brings the 4th-ranked rush D in the land to the table, averaging
only 86.9 rushing yards per game allowed this season, with 6 scores given away
so far. Last week, Pittsburgh managed 22/44/1 against the 49ers, while Arlen
Harris of St. Louis averaged 1 yard per carry on his 8/9/0 effort two games
ago. They are really this good, folks.
Both teams enjoy good health coming into the game, with San Francisco listing
LB Jeff Ulbrich as probable despite a sore ankle.
The forecast for Lambeau Field calls for a high of 52F and a low of 30F with
a 30% chance of precipitation. If it is sleeting or snowing at game time, the
winds could be swirling and it will be cold and slick on the field, causing
footing and ball-handling miscues for both teams.
Green is a top back with a top OL, while the 49ers are a top rush D. Seems
like a pretty even matchup.
Houston's Domanick Davis vs. The New England Defense (Neutral
Matchup)
Domanick Davis continues to produce decent fantasy outings: last week, it was
Davis rushing for 26/68/0 and catching 3 balls for 33 yards - he broke 100 yards
combined again last week. It was enough to help his team to a slender 12-10
victory. In his last 3 games, Davis has 53/246/1 rushing and 5/41/0 receiving,
good for 21st among all fantasy RB's during that time span. Houston as a team
has 278/1102 yards rushing, posting a respectable 4.0 ypc average this season
so far.
New England has played tough in this phase lately, limiting the Cowboy's attack
to 28/84/0 last week, and managing to contain Clinton Portis to 26/111/1 rushing
in their game vs. Denver. The Patriots are the 7th ranked rush D in the league
right now, averaging 91.6 rushing yards per game allowed, with 8 rushing scores
surrendered to date in 2003. They are a solid rush defense.
Houston's backup RB Stacy Mack has missed the last two games due to a knee
injury, this week he is not on the injury report. G Milford Brown is questionable
with a sore knee. New England is finally healthy in this phase of the game,
with NT Ted Washington and LB Ted Johnson finally back in the lineup (both are
questionable on the injury report this week).
The forecast for Reliant Stadium calls for a high of 76F and a low of 44F with
a 40% chance of rain. If the weather is really nasty with lots of rain, expect
the retractable roof to be closed, which will limit the amount of influence
the climate will have on this game.
Davis is a quality back, and the Patriots mount a quality rush defense. Sounds
even to us.
Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The Buffalo Defense (Neutral
Matchup)
A few minutes on the bench two weeks ago (vs. Jacksonville) seemed to help
Edgerrin James regain his focus, as he exploded for 36/127/3 against the hapless
New York Jets last week. James has been in and out of the lineup, and up and
down production-wise, in 2003. In his last 3 games, James has 77/260/4 rushing
and 17/78/0 receiving, putting him at #4 among all fantasy RB's in FP per game
during that span. The Colts have struggled to open holes for James at points
this year, reflected in both the 3.4 ypc team average (29th in the NFL) and
by his recent, less-than-stellar 15/44/0 rushing effort against Jacksonville.
This year, Edgerrin James is the 10th best fantasy RB in the land, with 172/627/5
rushing and 28/149/0 receiving so far in 2003.
Buffalo's defense was pretty tough on Domanick Davis last week (26/68/0 rushing
with 3/33/0 receiving), and they also contained the Cowboys to 35/122/0 two
weeks ago. Buffalo currently ranks 12th in the league allowing an average of
104.1 yards rushing per game, with 8 rushing scores surrendered to date. DL
Sam Adams was the top IDP DL last week, with 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 2
sacks.
The Colts have a lot of OL on the injury report: T Tarik Glenn (knee, questionable),
T Ryan Diem (hand, probable), C Jeff Saturday (knee, probable) and G Steve Sciullo
(shoulder, probable). Backup RB's Brian Allen (head, questionable), James Mungro
(knee, probable), Dominic Rhodes (knee, probable) and Detron Smith (knee, probable)
are also listed. Buffalo is in good health at this point in the season.
The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 54F and a low of
43F with a 30% chance of rain. If the rain comes down hard around game time,
the field may get slick and ball handling will become a bigger issue.
The Colt's line is banged up and not run-blocking particularly well this season,
while the Buffalo defense tends towards mediocrity in this phase. Sounds like
a neutral matchup to us.
Miami's Ricky Williams vs. The Washington Defense (Neutral
Matchup)
Ricky Williams finally managed to rush for more than 100 yards in a game last
week, but it took him 36 carries to total 105 yards (a 2.9 ypc average) - clearly,
he isn't getting much help from the OL even at this late date in the season.
The team averages 3.7 yards per carry, tied for 23rd in the NFL with Buffalo
and Cincinnati - not too good, folks. That helps explain why Williams has only
62/178/1 rushing and 13/69/0 receiving in his last 3 games (25th among fantasy
RB's in FP per game).
Washington has not been impressive defending the run in recent weeks. Stephen
Davis completed his vengeance on Spurrier last week by stuffing in the winning
score in the final minute of the game (28/92/1 rushing with 2/40/0 receiving
in the game), while two weeks ago the Seahawks had 28/125/1 against this squad.
For the season, the Redskins rank as the 23rd rush D in the league, allowing
126.6 rushing yards per game, with a hefty 11 TD' surrendered to date. They
have been playing down to that lowly status in recent weeks, as you can see.
Miami's OL got even more banged up last week (starting C Tim Ruddy missed the
game due to a knee injury - questionable this week) - starting G's Jamie Nails
(left ankle, questionable) and Todd Perry (right elbow, questionable) went down
with injuries. Washington lists starting DT Jermaine Haley (hand/shoulder, questionable),
DE Bruce Smith (knee/hand, probable), and LB LaVar Arrington (knee/hand, probable)
this week on their initial injury report.
The forecast for Pro Player Stadium calls for a high of 84F and a low of 66F
with a 20% chance of precipitation. A nice cool evening game is on tap in Miami
this weekend.
Two sub-par units lock horns in this matchup, and neither looks like it will
dominate the other.
San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs. The Cincinnati Defense
(Neutral Matchup)
Who is the only guy in the NFL who can keep LaDainian Tomlinson under 100 yards
rushing in a game? Chargers' OC Cam Cameron, who called Tomlinson's number only
6 times in the first 30 minutes of the game vs. Denver - Tomlinson ended the
day with 8/29/0 rushing and 4/16/0 receiving. Anytime your best player has 12
touches, it's going to be a long day. Despite the dreadful outing, Tomlinson
remains in the top 10 among fantasy RB's, with 40/252/3 rushing and 14/82/0
receiving in the last 3 weeks (7th among all fantasy RB's in FP per game). We
expect to see him return to center stage this week for the Chargers, as NOT
playing Tomlinson obviously didn't work (37-8 was the final score last week).
Cincinnati's rush defense is playing fairly well in recent weeks, holding Kansas
City and Priest Holmes to 17/67/0 rushing last week. The week before that, though,
the Texans galloped for 19/140/1 against the Bengals, so they haven't found
top form consistently. The team ranks 22nd in the NFL this season, allowing
an average of 121.4 rushing yards per game, with 7 scores surrendered to date
- they are bouncing around that average in recent weeks, as you can see.
San Diego went without starting C Jason Bell (ankle, questionable) and starting
G Solomon Page (ankle, questionable) last week. RB Lorenzo Neal is probable
despite a sore neck. Cincinnati is good to go in this phase of the game.
The forecast for Qualcomm Stadium calls for a high of 61F and a low of 44F
with a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be great football weather if the
forecast holds up.
Tomlinson has some injury concerns along the OL, and needs to see the ball
more - we think that will happen. Cincinnati is playing well, and proved that
they can handle a top back last week - this looks like a neutral matchup to
us before the fact.
New York Giants' Tiki Barber vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Neutral
Matchup)
Tiki Barber did his part against the Eagles, rushing 19/111 yards with a long
of 17 and catching 3/20/1 on the day - it was a very good fantasy outing for
Barber, who currently ranks as the 12th fantasy RB (FP per game) in the land
with 56/308/0 rushing and 17/90/1 receiving over the past 3 games. Dorsey Levens
only touched the ball 4 times (for 1 yard) in the game - he isn't eroding Barber's
chances as much lately. The Giants are tied for 13th in the NFL with an average
of 4.1 yards per carry this season - the big guys up front are doing their part,
too.
Tampa Bay has been up and down in this phase lately, stuffing the Stephen Davis
less Panthers two weeks ago (31/78/0), but then getting clobbered by the Packers
for 38/190/1 last week. The Buccaneers are currently the 14th ranked rush D
in the NFL, allowing an average of 112.7 yards per game, with 6 rushing scores
surrendered to date. The D has yet to consistently perform at peak levels in
2003 - 12 weeks into the season, the Buccaneers have not strung together 2 wins
all year.
Starting LB Ryan Nece has an ankle injury and missed the game last week (ankle).
LB Nate Webster (toe, questionable) is also on the injury report. The Giants
are healthy in this phase of the game, finally.
The forecast for Raymond James Stadium calls for a high of 80F, with a low
of 63F and a 40% chance for precipitation. The game is on Monday night, so the
temperature will be closer to the low end of the scale, and if the rain comes
down hard around game time, the field could get sloppy and slow and the ball
would get slick - miscues become more common in such conditions.
Tiki Barber is a solid back, while the Buccaneers are circling the bowl and
haven't managed to get up for big games all year - we see a fairly even matchup.
Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The Baltimore Defense (Neutral
Matchup)
Shaun Alexander just keeps rolling along this season. He is the 7th best fantasy
running back in 2003, with 196/835/8 rushing and 32/213/2 receiving through
10 games. He racked up 20/110/1 rushing and 5/27/0 receiving against the Lions
last week, and is the 10th best fantasy RB in FP per game over the last 3 weeks,
with 62/252/3 rushing and 8/46/0 receiving in that span. This year, he is a
consistent producer of fantasy points almost every week.
Baltimore has been slugging it out with their opponents the last two weeks
- the D is definitely doing its part. The Ravens held Ricky Williams to 36/105/0
(2.9 yards per carry) last week, and drilled Marshall Faulk and friends two
games ago to the tune of 21/47/2 (both scores were set up off turnovers by the
Ravens' offense, giving the Rams extremely short fields to cover).They are the
8th ranked rush D in the land, allowing 98.4 rushing yards per contest on average
(and tied for second-best in the league with only 5 rushing TD's allowed all
season). They are playing just as tough as those numbers would indicate in recent
weeks.
Baltimore's starting DE Anthony Weaver injured his shoulder in the game last
week (questionable). Seattle's squad is in good shape coming into the game,
with RB Maurice Morris nursing a sore toe (probable).
The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 66F and a low of
55F with a 20% chance of rain. It should be a fine day to play some football.
A top back faces a tough defense in this matchup - neither should dominate
the other on Sunday.
St. Louis' Marshall Faulk vs. The Arizona Defense (Neutral
Matchup)
Marshall Faulk finally got back to running the ball well last week, and put
up 20/103/0 rushing and 3/21/0 receiving. It was his first 100+ combined yards
effort of the season - too late for many of his fantasy owners, who have suffered
through yet another injury-plagued season. The last time these teams met, back
in week 4, Faulk was already sidelined due to injury, and did not play. As a
team, the Rams rushed for 41/133/2 that day, so they had good success earlier
this year against the Cardinals - but that doesn't tell us too much about Faulk's
prospects in this matchup.
Arizona's defense did a mediocre job against the Browns' backs last week, allowing
only 33/89 yards rushing but surrendering 2 scores to James Jackson (19/45/2).
The week before, Pittsburgh managed 27/87/0 rushing - the Cardinals have been
shutting down the rushing lanes for the most part in recent weeks. The team
ranks 11th in the NFL averaging 103.5 rushing yards allowed per game, with 8
rushing scores surrendered to date. They are playing pretty tough football in
this phase right now.
Arizona's starting LB Raynoch Thompson sprained his neck last week (not listed),
and DT Russell Davis missed the game due to an unspecified illness (not listed).
The Cardinals do list LB Gerald Hayes (shoulder, questionable) and DE Dennis
Johnson (leg, probable). St. Louis is finally healthy on this unit of their
team.
The forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 58F and a low of 39F
with a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be a pleasantly cool day to play
a game of football in the desert, something you can't usually say about this
venue.
Marshall Faulk seems to be finding a rhythm again, while the Cardinals are
playing tough in this phase of the game. Home-field advantage isn't a huge help
when only 1/2 the tickets to a game are sold - we call this a neutral matchup
before the fact.
Atlanta's Warrick Dunn vs. The Tennessee Defense (Tough
Matchup)
Warrick Dunn has been a one-man wrecking crew since regaining his starting
job in Atlanta. Last week, he blew up the Saints for 23/162/0 rushing and 2/23/0
receiving - it wasn't his fault the team lost in OT. In his last three games,
Dunn has put up 58/408/1 rushing and 5/31/0 receiving - he's red hot and currently
8th in FP per game among all fantasy RB's during the last 3 weeks. He'd be even
hotter if T.J. Duckett weren't vulturing all the short-plunge TD's (27/95/4
TD's and 1/6/0 receiving during that span). The running game is the lone bright
spot on an otherwise abysmal team right now.
Tennessee's rush D is awesome this season. They are first in the league, allowing
only 78.8 rushing yards per contest, and tied for 2nd with only 5 rushing scores
given away. The Jaguars managed 126 on 30 carries last week (0 TD's), while
two weeks ago Miami eked out 16/59/0. LB Keith Bulluck was 8th among all fantasy
LB's last week, with 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack and 1 forced fumble.
Starting RG Kynan Forney suffered a stinger in his shoulder last week (shoulder,
questionable). Tennessee's defensive front may be without DE Jevon Kearse this
week (ankle, questionable), DT Rien Long (knee, questionable), and DT Robaire
Smith (head/ribs, questionable).
This game is being played in the Georgia Dome, so weather is not a factor.
The Falcons are hot in this phase, but the Titans are the league's best defense.
It's tough to run on them any week, no matter how much momentum is behind your
team.
Carolina's Stephen Davis vs. The Dallas Defense (Tough Matchup)
28/92/1 was the output that Davis wanted to post (at a minimum) against his
old team-mates and coach in Washington. He ended up winning the game in the
final minutes by powering in the winning score. In his last 2 games, Davis has
58/245/1 rushing and 2/40/0 receiving - 6th best in FP per game among all RB's
in the last 3 weeks. The Panthers are tied for 11th with a 4.3 yards-per-carry
average this season.
Dallas contained the Patriots last week, allowing only 25/64/1 all night long.
Two weeks ago, Travis Henry and company managed 25/100/0. It shouldn't surprise
you to hear that the Cowboys are tied for 1st with only 4 rushing scores allowed
all year, and are second in the league giving up only 83.1 rushing yards per
game on average. Dat Nguyen was the 5th best fantasy LB last week, with 10 solo
tackles, 1 assist and 2 passes defensed.
Both teams come into the game healthy, with only backup RB DeShaun Foster nursing
a hand injury (questionable).
The forecast for Texas Stadium calls for a high of 65F and a low of 36F with
a 20% chance of rain - it will be a great day for a football game if the weather
holds.
A top rushing attack clashes with a top defense in this game - few teams can
afford to bench Stephen Davis but this is a tough matchup for him.
Chicago's Anthony Thomas vs. The Denver Defense (Tough Matchup)
In the close-call loss to the Rams, Anthony Thomas did his part, rushing 23/92/1
on the day and racking up a nice fantasy outing for his owners. In his last
3 games, Thomas has 75/264/3 rushing, good enough for 16th among all fantasy
RB in FP per game during that span. The Bears as a team average 4.1 ypc - the
OL is doing their job generating a surge off the ball.
Denver has been stingy in this phase of the game recently, allowing 13/40/0
to LaDainian Tomlinson and friends, while stunning the Patriots into a 26/69/0
performance 2 games ago. The Broncos are the 6th ranked rush D in the NFL this
season, allowing an average of only 90.5 yards per game, with only 4 rushing
TD's given away to date (tied for first in the league).
Denver lists LB Donnie Spragan as probable (foot), as is DT Daryl Gardener
(wrist).
The forecast for Mile High Stadium calls for a high of 29F and a low of 18F
with a 30% chance of precipitation. It could be very windy, cold and snowy at
game time, making footing and ball handling issues in this game.
Denver is very strong at rush D, while the Bears are solid but unspectacular
at rushing the ball. Advantage, Denver.
New York Jets' Curtis Martin/LaMont Jordan vs. The Jacksonville
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Curtis Martin has finally found his game-legs again, with 60/274/0 rushing
and 5/28/0 receiving in the last 3 games. His lack of TD's is depressing his
fantasy value (27th among RB's in FP per game during the last 3 weeks), but
at least he is a threat to gain 100 yards in a game again. LaMont Jordan has
15/106/1 rushing and 1/3/0 receiving, so he continues to eat into Martin's numbers.
Last week, though, Martin was the man against the Colts, with 13/105/0 rushing
and 2/27/0 receiving, while Jordan put up 2/25/0 rushing on the day. The Jets
are now tied for 13th in the NFL with a 4.1 ypc average - the OL is starting
to create running room for the Jets again.
Jacksonville contained the Titans last week, to the tune of 20/73/0 for Eddie
George (McNair was second on the team with 5/21/0). Two weeks ago, it was the
Colts being frustrated, as they managed a mere 21/47/0 rushing against the Jags.
This season, the Jags rank 5th in the league, allowing only 88.7 yards rushing
per contest (9 scores were surrendered earlier in the year, but none recently).
Two Jaguar DL were in the top 10 among IDP DL last week: John Henderson had
7 solo tackles and a fumble recovery (3rd) and Hugh Douglas put up 4 solo tackles,
1 assist, 1.5 sacks and a forced fumble (7th). They are tough to gain yards
on or score on in recent weeks - the defensive front is a the top of their game
right now.
Injuries aren't a big problem for either squad, although Jordan did injure
a finger in the game last week (probable).
The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 58F and a low of 48F with
a 30% chance of rain. At this time of year, rain would probably mean windy conditions
and a slick field - footing and ball-handling could become issues in this game
if the rain comes down hard around game-time.
The Jets have been getting better at running the ball in recent weeks, but
Jacksonville is a top run-defense, and is playing like one lately. Look for
the Jets to struggle against the top-shelf Jaguars' D.
Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis/Amos Zereoue vs. The Cleveland
Defense (Tough Matchup)
Pittsburgh has really struggled to move the ball on the ground this season,
averaging a lowly 3.2 yards per carry in 2003 (31st in the league), with 256
rushes for 830 yards to their collective credit. In his last 3 games, Bettis
has 48/143/1 rushing and 3/23/0 receiving, good for 35th among all fantasy backs
in FP per week during that span. His OL is not opening holes, and that makes
it hard for any RB to make good things happen. Bettis scored the only rushing
TD against the Browns back in week 5, while Zereoue led the team with 13/38/0
rushing - the Steelers only managed 18/60/1 all day long.
13/39/0 was what the Cardinals managed to put up against the Browns, one week
after the Chiefs slapped them around for 27/88/2. The Browns have been solidly
mediocre in this phase all season long, with 117.3 rushing yards per game allowed
(17th in the NFL) and 6 rushing scores surrendered to date. LB Brant Boyer was
the 3rd best IDP LB last week, with 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 interception
and 2 passes defensed.
Starting DE Kenard Lang (back, probable) missed last week's game for the Browns.
LB's Ben Taylor (back) and Chaun Thompson (eye) are probable to play. Pittsburgh
continues to wait for OT Marvel Smith to get better (questionable). Joining
Smith on the injury report are G Keydrick Vincent (groin, questionable), and
RB Jerome Bettis (shoulder, probable).
The forecast for Cleveland Browns Stadium calls for a high of 57F and a low
of 47F with a 20% chance of rain - great football weather, if the forecast holds
up.
Pittsburgh has a hard time moving the ball effectively, while the Browns are
playing fairly well in this phase right now (and are solid-to-average from week
to week) - advantage, Cleveland.
Dallas' Troy Hambrick/Adrian Murrell vs. The Carolina Defense
(Bad Matchup)
Dallas' RB stable managed 19/52/0 rushing in the loss to New England (16/41/0
for Hambrick, 3/11/0 for Murrell) - it was not an exciting day for Dallas owners
in general, as the Cowboys were blanked in the game. Hambrick has been luke-warm
in recent games, with 50/174/2 rushing and 2/16/0 receiving in the last 3 games
(24th among fantasy RB in FP per game during that period). He just isn't becoming
a dominant RB under the tutelage of coach Parcells. This season he is the 23rd
ranked fantasy RB in FP per game, with 187/618/5 rushing and 12/86/0 receiving.
Carolina is hard on teams that try to run the ball against them. Last week,
22/54/0 was what the Redskin's tandem managed. Two weeks ago, it was 19/89/0
that the Buccaneers managed to eke out against the Panthers. Currently, the
Panthers rank 10th in the NFL allowing 100.9 rushing yards per game, but they
are tied for 1st with only 4 rushing scores given away all year. They are playing
even tougher than their average would indicate in recent weeks. Kris Jenkins
was the 2nd best IDP DL last week, with 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 2 sacks.
Both teams come into this game relatively healthy - Carolina lists DT Shane
Burton (ankle, questionable).
The forecast for Texas Stadium calls for a high of 65F and a low of 36F with
a 20% chance of rain - it will be a great day for a football game if the weather
holds.
The Panthers are a top run D that is playing well in recent weeks, while the
Cowboys are struggling in this phase of the game. Advantage, Carolina.
Washington's Rock Cartwright/Trung Canidate vs. The Miami
Defense (Bad Matchup)
In the loss to Carolina, neither of Washington's options did much of note:
Rock Cartwright had 9/32/0 rushing, and Trung Canidate put up 10/18/0 - they
were unable to do much against the 10th ranked rush D in the NFL. The two are
neck and neck at #39 and #40 on the fantasy RB board (in FP per game) over the
last 3 weeks - Cartwright has 30/157/0 rushing and 6/50/0 receiving in that
span, while Canidate has 25/52/0 and 2/23/1 receiving during that span. Not
much in the way of fantasy points is flowing from the Redskins' font right now.
More bad news - Tim Hasselbeck, an NFL neophyte, may be under center this weekend
if Ramsey can't get past his foot injury. Do you think the Dolphins will be
willing to put 8 men in the box and dare Hasselbeck to throw against Patrick
Surtain, Sam Madison and company? We do, too. If Ramsey is out, the Redskins
will have a major problem, folks. Keep an eye on the injury report and Footballguys'
updates as the week goes by.
Even more bad news - this week Cartwright and Canidate get to face the 3rd
ranked rush D in the NFL - Miami allows a mere 85.1 rushing yards per game on
average, and is tied for second-best in the NFL giving away only 5 rushing scores
all season long.
But wait, there's even more bad news - starting C Larry Moore missed the game
last week with a bum foot, and is doubtful this week, as is Ladell Betts (arm).
Cartwright is questionable with a sore ankle, as is Chad Morton (ankle). Miami
comes into the game with DT Larry Chester (quadriceps, probable) and LB Zach
Thomas (shoulder, probable).
The forecast for Pro Player Stadium calls for a high of 84F and a low of 66F
with a 20% chance of precipitation. A nice cool evening game is on tap in Miami
this weekend.
The deck is stacked against the Redskins' backs this week - a huge edge flows
to the home team in this game.
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