Hi Folks,
Here's our look at the Rushing Matchups for this week.
PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings
are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns
are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.
Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean
he's not a starter in your league. If Priest Holmes is playing the toughest rush
defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's
also your starter. In the same way, if the worst RB on your roster has a "great"
matchup, that doesn't necessarily mean you start him, it just means he'll likely
fare better this week than he normally would.
Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.
Let's jump to it.
Joe
Carolina's Stephen Davis vs. The Atlanta Defense (Great
Matchup)
Stephen Davis has been racking up yards at a steady clip lately, with 77/266/2
rushing and 3/47/0 receiving in his last 3 games. Last week, he hit Philadelphia
for 23/115/0 in the losing effort. The guy has 270 carries and 11 receptions
this season, with 1258 rushing yards and 7 TDs to date. He is the focus of the
Panther's offense, even with more emphasis on Jake Delhomme's arm in recent
games. Davis smashed the Falcons for 21/153/1 the last time he played them,
back in week 4.
Atlanta gave up 31/135/2 to the Texans last week, and 35/144/1 to the anemic
Titans two weeks ago - they are not a strong rush D in 2003. In fact, Atlanta
is 31st in the league allowing an average of 149.1 yards rushing per game (and
dead last in scoring, giving away 19 rushing TDs this year). They are bad, bad,
bad.
RB DeShaun Foster may be ready to spell Davis again this week (hand, probable).
LB Keith Newman has bruised buttocks, and is questionable on the Wednesday injury
report.
This game is being played in the Georgia Dome, so weather is not an issue.
Davis is a top back, Atlanta is a horrible rush D. Advantage, Carolina.
Detroit's Shawn Bryson/Olandis Gary vs. The San Diego Defense
(Great Matchup)
Detroit has actually played half-decently in this phase lately, with 33/100/1
vs. the Packers on Thanksgiving and 19/74/0 against the Vikings two weeks ago.
Of course, the tandem of Bryson and Gary basically split carries, so neither
one is generally worth much in fantasy terms. 31/106/1 rushing and 12/61/0 receiving
are Bryson's totals over the past 3 games; Gary has notched 26/99/0 rushing
and 2/6/0 receiving. Ho-hum.
San Diego's defense is laughable. 39/194/2 was what the Chiefs totaled last
week; 45/225/0 was the sum of Cincinnati's efforts two weeks ago. The Chargers
average an embarrassing 146.7 rushing yards allowed per game this season, and
are playing even worse than that lately.
Detroit's backup RB Avon Cobourne (leg, questionable) is hurt, and the Chargers
put Raylee Johnson on IR due to his foot injury. DT Jamal Williams (knee) is
doubtful.
This game is being played in a dome, so weather is not an issue.
Bryson and Gary aren't exciting from the fantasy perspective, but they've got
an easy game in front of them, for what it's worth.
Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis/Amos Zereoue vs. The Oakland
Defense (Great Matchup)
Jerome Bettis remains the work-horse in Pittsburgh's backfield, carrying 20
times for 61 yards and 1 score last week to Zereoue's 3/19/0 (1/5/0 and 2/23/0
receiving, respectively). 57/194/2 and 4/29/0 are Bettis' totals through 3 weeks
(20th fantasy RB in FP per game during that span). Pittsburgh isn't a dominant
rushing team anymore, but Bettis makes a decent #2 most weeks.
Oakland was blasted by Clinton Portis and company last week (46/193/2), and
folded for 25/142/2 for Priest Holmes and friends two weeks ago. The team is
ultra-soft on opposing rushers in general, averaging 150.8 rushing yards allowed
per game, with 16 scores given away this year. Nobody fears the Raiders' defensive
front.
Marvel Smith continues to struggle with his neck injury (out) on the Steelers'
side of the ball. C Jeff Hartings (knee), RB Jerome Bettis (shoulder) and Verron
Hayes (knee) are probable to play. DT John Parrella (groin, out) and DT Dana
Stubblefield (ankle, questionable) are missing from the interior of the Raiders'
line right now, and DT Sean Gilbert (groin, questionable) is hurting too.
The forecast for Heinz Field calls for a high of 35F and a low of 28F, with
a 10% chance of precipitation. Wintry but clear conditions, in other words.
Bettis may be fading, but against the cellar-dwelling Raider's defense, this
is as good as it gets for him.
Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The Minnesota Defense (Great
Matchup)
Shaun Alexander has the luxury of picking his running lanes right now, because
opposing defenses are scared silly of the red-hot Matt Hasselbeck and company
in the passing phase of the game. He had a tough game vs. Baltimore two weeks
ago (22/72/0 rushing), but came back with a vengeance against Cleveland (27/127/1
rushing, 2/10/0 receiving). 69/309/2 rushing and 8/37/0 receiving over the past
3 games puts Alexander at #10 among all fantasy backs in FP per game during
that span.
Minnesota has not shut anybody down in this phase of the game for some time
- last week, Marshall Faulk and company exploded for 25/141/4 against the Vikings,
and two weeks ago they gave up almost 4 yards per carry to the under whelming
Lions (19/74/0). Minnesota has giving up the second-most rushing scores in the
NFL this year (17) and ranks 24th in average rushing yards allowed per game
(130.6).
Starting LB Chris Claiborne has a sore Achilles tendon (questionable), and
missed last weeks' game, as did reserve LB Raonall Smith (hamstring, not listed).
Seattle says G Jerry Wunsch (ankle) is doubtful to play, while RB Mack Strong
(ankle) is questionable and RB Shaun Alexander (ankle) and T Chris Terry (illness)
are probable.
This game is being played in the Metrodome, so weather is not a factor.
Alexander and the Seahawks should enjoy a great day in this phase vs. the soft
Vikings.
Baltimore's Jamal Lewis vs. The Cincinnati Defense (Good
Matchup)
Jamal Lewis and company whipped the 49ers last week, setting the stage for
a big AFC North showdown between these two improving franchises. Lewis had 19/78/1
rushing last week, and has put up 71/283/1 rushing with 6/43/0 receiving over
the last 3 games (Anthony Wright has been lighting up the passing game, so Lewis'
role is suddenly reduced in the overall offensive picture) - he ranked 17th
in FP per game among all fantasy RB's during that span. Lewis just crossed the
100 yard threshold against the Bengals in week 7 (19/101/0 rushing and 1/8/0
receiving).
Cincinnati has been luke-warm in this phase of the game recently, coughing
up 25/85/1 to the Steelers last week and 20/118/1 to the Chargers two weeks
ago. The Bengals have been tepid all season, averaging 118.1 rushing yards allowed
per game (18th ranked) and have given away 9 rushing scores to date. John Thornton
was huge among DL last week, with 3 solo tackles, 2 sacks and one fumble recovery
(5th best IDP DL last week).
Cincinnati lists LB Dwayne Levels (knee) as probable to play. Baltimore is
in good health on their unit.
The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 37F and a low of
35F, with a 30% chance of precipitation. If the precipitation comes down hard
around game time, field conditions will get slick and the ball will be harder
to handle.
Jamal Lewis has been tapering off a bit in recent weeks, but has a good shot
at a respectable fantasy outing vs. the Bengals.
Buffalo's Travis Henry vs. The New York Jets' Defense (Good
Matchup)
Travis Henry is gutting it out, and playing pretty darn well for a guy with
a fractured fibula. 71/339/1 rushing and 6/31/0 receiving over the last 3 weeks
puts him at #13 among all fantasy RB's in FP per game. 26/113/1 rushing with
2/6/0 receiving helped put his team over the top against the Giants last week
- he's doing quite well recently.
The Jets are mired at the bottom of the NFL in rush D (30th, allowing an average
of 148.6 rushing yards per game, with 15 TDs surrendered to date). Two weeks
ago, Fred Taylor and company torched the Jets for 37/158/1 - last week, against
the worst rushing team in the league (Tennessee), the Jets put up with 22/84/0
from the Titans. They are usually much closer to the Jaguar's game than the
Tennessee game most weeks in 2003.
Henry isn't even on the injury report on Wednesday, although OT Jonas Jennings
(foot, IR) and G Mike Pucillo (foot, doubtful) are, as well as backup RB Sammy
Morris (knee, questionable). DE John Abraham (groin, doubtful) probably won't
play in this one.
The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 36F and a low of
25F, with a 10% chance of precipitation. Gusty winds are often part of visiting
Buffalo at this time of year, making the air seem even colder than it is - ball
handling could be an issue in the cold.
Henry is playing tough football right now, and the Jets are usually soft. Advantage,
Buffalo.
Cleveland's James Jackson vs. The St. Louis Defense (Good
Matchup)
William Green's suspension was extended by the NFL this week, and it looks
like his season (and possibly even his career in Cleveland) is over. Into the
breach steps James Jackson once again - he has put up 56/171/2 rushing with
8/63/0 receiving in the last three weeks (good for 19th among all fantasy RB's
in FP per game during that span). 12/32/0 rushing and 1/6/0 was what he managed
against Seattle last week, though - hardly an impressive outing on his part
(or by the team, for that matter).
St. Louis has been soft in this phase of the game lately, allowing 26/189/1
to the Vikings last week, and 30/166/0 to the Cardinals two week ago. The team
averages 122.7 rushing yards allowed per game in 2003 (23rd in the NFL), with
7 rushing scores allowed to date. Obviously, they are playing significantly
worse than usual lately.
DE Courtland Bullard (ankle, questionable) and LB's Scott Shanle (hamstring,
probable) and Pisa Tinoisamoa (pelvis, probable) are on the initial injury report
for St. Louis. The Browns are healthy in this phase of the game.
The forecast for Cleveland Browns Stadium calls for a high of 40F and a low
of 32F, with a 20% chance of precipitation. It will be a cool night to play
football.
James Jackson isn't a great NFL talent, but he has a shot at a solid game against
the soft Rams' defense. Pay close attention to see if rookie Lee Suggs is used.
Denver's Clinton Portis vs. The Kansas City Defense (Good
Matchup)
Kansas City clinches the AFC West with a win in this game, while Denver is fighting
for it's playoff chances as a wild-card. Clinton Portis has been close to unstoppable
in recent weeks, with 73/441/2 rushing and 6/36/0 receiving during the last
3 weeks (6th best fantasy RB in the land during that span). He racked up 23/141/1
rushing with 5/79/0 receiving the last time these two teams met back in week
5.
Kansas City has been soft against the run lately, giving up 28/159/1 to the
Chargers last week and 35/166/2 to the Raiders two weeks ago - that's pretty
bad, folks. They are now the 27th ranked rush D in the land, allowing an average
of 135.8 rushing yards per game with 9 rushing scores surrendered to date. Obviously,
they are having trouble containing quality backs like LaDainian Tomlinson -
or Clinton Portis.
Kansas City lists a bunch of defensive players on the injury report: LB's Monty
Beisel (groin, out), Quinton Caver (back, questionable), Mike Maslowski (knee,
questionable), and Fred Jones (ribs, probable) all show up, as does DE Eddie
Freeman (toe, probable), DE Vonnie Holliday (shoulder, probable), DT Montique
Sharpe (ankle, probable) and DT Ryan Sims (elbow, probable). Denver lists the
usual suspects (all probable) - T Ephraim Salaam (knee), G Dan Neil (thumb)
and C Tom Nalen (ankle).
The forecast for Mile High Stadium calls for a high of 51F and a low of 32F,
with a 10% chance of precipitation. It should be a great day for a football
game.
Portis is a top-shelf back, while the Chiefs mount a cellar-dwelling defense.
Advantage, Denver.
Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The Chicago Defense (Good Matchup)
In a disappointing game, Ahman Green looked flat against the Lions last week
with 113/57/0 rushing and 4/10/0 receiving during the upset loss in Detroit.
It was definitely atypical for Green, who has put up 61/320/1 rushing and 7/25/0
receiving in his last 3 games. Green Bay leads the league in average yards per
carry this season, at a stellar 5.3. Greens' poor game was an aberration in
our opinion, not the beginning of a trend. Last time he played the Bears, Green
ripped them for 19/176/2 rushing, with a long of 60.
Chicago got blown up by Clinton Portis two weeks ago (14/165/0, with 21/200/0
for Denver as a team), but handled the Cardinals last week (18/46/0). The team
averages 121.6 rushing yards allowed per game (21st in the NFL), and has coughed
up 9 rushing scores this year - they're a pretty mediocre bunch in this phase
of the game.
The Packer's backup OL Marcus Spriggs (hamstring, questionable) is on the early
injury report, as is C Rob Davis (back, probable). Injuries aren't a huge factor
in this game.
The forecast for Lambeau Field calls for a high of 34F and a low of 26F, with
a 10% chance of precipitation. Cold but clear conditions are the order of the
day, it appears.
Green is one of the best around, while the Bears are in the bottom half of
the league in this phase of the game - and they were torn apart by Green earlier
this season. Advantage, Green Bay.
Jacksonville's Fred Taylor vs. The Houston Defense (Good
Matchup)
Jacksonville's Fred Taylor took it to the Buccaneers last week and thrashed
them for 29/118/0 rushing and 3/12/0 receiving in the big win. He also gained
100+ vs. the Jets two weeks ago, and has 75/302/0 rushing and 3/12/0 receiving
over the past 3 weeks - the dearth of TDs has depressed his fantasy value, though,
to 25th among all RB's in FP per game during that 3 week span. Back in week
4, Taylor put up 19/67/1 rushing and 4/27/0 receiving vs. the Texans.
Houston's rush D hasn't been impressive for most of this year, averaging 134.3
yards per game allowed (26th in the NFL) with 11 rushing TDs coughed up. 24/69/1
is what the Falcons managed last week, though, while New England put up 41/128/0
two weeks ago - the Texans are putting their best foot forward in this phase
in recent weeks.
Houston recently lost DE Gary Walker to IR, and has been doing without reserve
LB's Steve Foley (shoulder, questionable) and Antwan Peek (foot, questionable)
in recent weeks. Jacksonville lists Chris Fuamatu Ma'afala as questionable with
a knee problem.
The forecast for ALLTEL Stadium calls for a high of 51F and a low of 44F, with
a 10% chance of precipitation. This weather is why people live there despite
the sultry Florida summers.
Taylor is a top back, and enjoyed modest success against the Texans earlier
in the year. At home, we give the Jags the nod in this matchup.
Minnesota's Michael Bennett/Moe Williams vs. The Seattle
Defense (Good Matchup)
Michael Bennett had an excellent game vs. St. Louis last week, statistically
speaking, with 14/98/0 rushing (7.0 ypc average) and 3/24/0 receiving. Moe Williams
had 13 touches for a combined 37 yards in a change-of-pace role as Bennett reclaimed
the lion's share of the action - right on schedule. The Vikings average 4.7
yards per carry this season (5th in the NFL), so the OL has lived up to its'
promise no matter who is carrying the ball.
Seattle crushed James Jackson and company last week (16/47/0 rushing as a team),
one week after Baltimore ripped them for 35/150/0 in an overtime game. Seattle
is in the middle of the league this season (14th), averaging 111.8 rushing yards
allowed per game, with 8 rushing scores surrendered to date. As you can see,
they've been bouncing up and down in this phase of the game lately.
Seattle says that DE Brandon Mitchell (calf, questionable) may not be able
to go, while LB's Chad Brown (foot), Randall Godfrey (chest) and Anthony Simmons
(chin) are all probable to play.
This game is being played in the Metrodome, so weather is not a factor.
Bennett looks like he's approaching top form, which is a scary thing for opposing
defenses to ponder. Advantage, Minnesota.
New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The Tampa Bay Defense
(Good Matchup)
Nobody is hotter in fantasy football right now than Deuce McAllister. In the
past 3 weeks, he has racked up 77/522/4 rushing and 17/143/0 receiving - the
guy has 9 straight games rushing for 100+ yards, and missed 100 yard rushing
games in week 1 and 2 by a total of 4 yards. If he has over 150 yards this weekend,
McAllister will join Earl Campbell as the only players in history to have 4
consecutive 150 yard rushing games. This run that McAllister is on could end
up breaking a ton of NFL records. He's been over 200 yards (combined) in two
of the past three weeks. Back in week 9 he slapped down 26/110/0 rushing and
4/16/0 receiving against the Buccaneers' defensive front. Just start him and
smile, if you are lucky enough to have him on your roster.
Tampa has been up and down in this phase recently (mirroring the defense's
performance all year long, actually), allowing 35/135/0 to the Jaguars (29/118/0
to Fred Taylor) last week in their loss, but holding the Giants to 17/79/0 two
weeks ago. They are the 14th ranked rush D in the land this year, allowing an
average of 111.8 yards per game (but only 6 rushing scores to date).
G Kendyl Jacox continues to be sidelined by his bad knee (doubtful) for New
Orleans. Backup RB's James Fenderson (foot, questionable) and Fred McAfee (ankle,
questionable) are also listed. Tampa Bay is basically healthy coming into this
game, although DE Simeon Rice has a sore elbow (probable).
This game is being played in the Superdome, so weather is not an issue.
Look for McAllister to continue his string of 100 yard games against the fading
Buccaneers on Sunday.
New York Giants' Tiki Barber vs. The Washington Defense
(Good Matchup)
Tiki Barber didn't come through for the Giants last week, with a pathetic 12/20/0
and 1/4/0 performance against the Buffalo Bills. It was his worst game of the
year, by far. In his last 3 games, he's struggled to make an impact, with 44/186/0
rushing and 9/58/1 receiving - nothing to brag about in fantasy circles. There
is reason for hope this week, though, as he had good results back in week 3
against this Redskins team - 28/126/0 rushing and 4/18/0 receiving.
Washington coughed up 37/189/2 rushing to the Saints last week, and 32/144/2
to the Dolphins two weeks ago - they haven't been stout in the red-zone lately.
In fact, they haven't been too stout in the red-zone all year, giving away 15
rushing scores to date (only 3 NFL teams have done worse in 2003) while averaging
133.4 rushing yards allowed per game (25th in the NFL). Jeremiah Trotter did
have a great IDP game, though, with 10 solo tackles, 1 assist and 2 passes defensed
last week (3rd best fantasy LB).
New York had to play last week without starting LT Luke Petitgout (back, questionable).
Washington is in decent shape along the defensive front coming into the game,
although DE Bruce Smith (hand/knee) and LB Jeremiah Trotter (knee) are nicked
up - both are probable to play.
The forecast for Giants Stadium calls for a high of 37F and a low of 31F, with
a 30% chance of precipitation. The moisture could fall as rain, sleet or snow
- if it comes down hard around game time, the field will be slick and ball handling
will become a big issue in the course of the game.
Barber usually racks up a respectable amount of yardage week in and week out,
but stumbled last week. Washington gives away points in bunches lately, so Barber
may be due for an exceptionally good game against the Redskins - his chances
are a bit better than normal, anyway.
San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs. The Detroit Defense
(Good Matchup)
Tomlinson continues to battle on, even though his team is a lowly 2-10. Last
week, he battered the Chiefs for 19/106/1 (San Diego is tied with Green Bay
for the best ypc average in the league at 5.3). He is basically unstoppable
unless the team's offensive coordinator has another fit of madness and doesn't
put the ball in Tomlinson's hand at least 20 times a game. In the last 3 games,
Tomlinson has put up 43/230/2 rushing and 13/82/0 receiving, good for 12th among
all fantasy RB's in FP per game during that span.
Detroit held Ahman Green to 13/57/0 rushing and 4/10/0 receiving last week,
and contained the Vikings to 28/121/1 two weeks ago - they've been playing well
lately, and are ranked 13th in the NFL allowing an average of 111.4 rushing
yards per game this season (with 10 TDs surrendered to date).
San Diego comes into this one with starting T Damion McIntosh (ankle, questionable),
starting C Jason Ball (ankle, questionable) and C Cory Raymer (hand, probable)
hurting. RB/KR Leon Johnson has a sore arm (probable) Detroit's reserve DL Jared
DeVries (shoulder, questionable) missed the Thanksgiving game, as did backup
LB James Davis (shoulder, questionable).
This game is being played in a dome, so weather is not an issue.
Tomlinson is a top back, Detroit has an average rush defense. Advantage, San
Diego.
San Francisco's Kevan Barlow vs. The Arizona Defense (Good
Matchup)
First off, the news on Garrison Hearst: "Running back Garrison Hearst
will miss at least one game after suffering a torn lateral meniscus in his right
knee, 49ers Coach Dennis Erickson said Monday. Hearst, who sustained the injury
in Sunday's 44-6 loss at Baltimore, was scheduled to undergo arthroscopic surgery
today. Erickson said if all goes well, Hearst could return for the Dec. 14 game
in Cincinnati." (Mercury News article by Dennis Georgatos, 12/02/03) Now
we get to see how well Kevan Barlow can handle the featured back role in San
Francisco. He had 11/48/0 rushing and 2/16/0 receiving in the game vs. Baltimore
last week, and has put up 121/591/2 rushing (a 4.9 yards per carry average is
very good) and 17/147/0 receiving this season. Barlow had 9/19/0 and 4/26/0
rushing and receiving against Arizona earlier this season (the team put up 27/106/1
in the game week 8).
Arizona has not done well at rush defense lately (36/154/2 surrendered to Chicago
last week; 26/117/1 to Marshall Faulk two weeks ago). They are currently ranked
12th in the NFL allowing 108.8 rushing yards per game (with 11 scores given
up this year), but are playing much worse than those numbers suggest in the
recent past.
T Derrick Deese hurt his knee (not listed) in the game last week, and starting
G Ron Stone missed the game (hamstring, questionable), while G Eric Heitmann
(ankle, probable), C Jeremy Newberry (ankle, probable) and C Brock Guitierrez
(ankle, questionable) are also listed. Arizona's defense is in good health at
this point in the season.
The forecast for 3-Com Park calls for a high of 58F and a low of 46F, with
a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be a great day for a ball game.
Barlow is a good back who struggled against the Cardinals earlier this season,
whereas the Cardinal's rush D has regressed during the weeks that have passed
since then. This one looks like a good matchup to us.
St. Louis' Marshall Faulk vs. The Cleveland Defense (Good
Matchup)
Marshall Faulk is (finally) getting back to top form, with 61/311/4 rushing
and 10/89/0 receiving in his last 3 games. Last week, he bulldozed the hapless
Vikings for 17/108/3 rushing (2/35/0 receiving in addition) - he looks like
his old, productive fantasy-stud self again. That's good news for the Rams,
who are currently 26th in the NFL averaging 3.6 yards per carry this season.
Cleveland got thoroughly stomped by the Seahawks last week (36/157/1 rushing),
just one week after they contained the Steelers to 31/109/0. The Browns have
been up and down a lot this season, and currently rank 20th in the NFL allowing
an average of 119.9 rushing yards per game, with 7 scores surrendered to date.
Kenard Lang was the 3rd best IDP DL last week, with 6 solo tackles, 1 assist,
1 sack, 1 interception and a pass defensed. In addition, Andra Davis was 2nd
among fantasy LB's with 9 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble and
1 pass defensed.
LB Ben Taylor (elbow, questionable), LB Brant Boyer (knee, probable) and DE
Courtney Brown (ankle, probable) are on the initial injury report this week.
St. Louis is in good shape on their unit.
The forecast for Cleveland Browns Stadium calls for a high of 40F and a low
of 32F, with a 20% chance of precipitation. It will be a cool night to play
football.
The Rams are getting into top form right now, while the Browns keep finding
ways to drop games. Advantage, St. Louis.
Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman/Thomas Jones vs. The New Orleans'
Defense (Good Matchup)
Jacksonville stymied the Buccaneers' duo last week, holding Pittman to 10/60/0
rushing and 2/6/0 receiving, while Thomas Jones managed 7/11/1 rushing and 2/21/0
receiving - all in all, it was an under whelming performance. Over the last
3 weeks, neither player has been much of a fantasy force - Jones is 23rd ranked
over that span with 26/172/2 rushing and 4/32/0 receiving, while Pittman is
45th with 37/133/0 rushing and 8/50/0 receiving. The running-back-by-committee
disease has afflicted both players, and now Tampa is reduced to playing out
the string in 2003 - there's not a lot exciting happening here. In their previous
game against New Orleans (week 9), Pittman rushed for 16/48/0 and caught 6/55/1,
while Jones saw one pass for 29 yards.
The Redskins slapped down 26/161/1 rushing last week, and two weeks ago it
was the Eagles who ran wild for 32/201/2 against the Saints. This is not a stout
rush D, with a season average of 141.3 rushing yards allowed per game (28th
in the NFL), and 11 TDs allowed - the Saints have been even worse than their
average indicates in the last few weeks.
New Orleans says that DE Willie Whitehead is questionable to play through his
sore knee, while reserve LB Cie Grant hurt his calf last week and is questionable.
Tampa benched RT Kenyatta Walker for poor play last week (he is not injured,
though).
This game is being played in the Superdome, so weather is not an issue.
New Orleans still has some hope for a playoff berth, and has defeated the Buccaneers
3 straight games. However, it looks like they will have to play tougher in this
phase if they want to continue their success - Pittman and Jones should be able
to puncture them for some decent numbers.
Tennessee's Eddie George vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Good
Matchup)
Eddie George enjoyed a decent game against the soft Jets, with 18/73/0 rushing
and 1/6/0 receiving. Chris Brown spelled George occasionally (2/8/0), but this
year it is still George's show. 64/261/1 rushing and 3/13/0 receiving are good
enough numbers to place George at #21 among all fantasy backs during the last
3 weeks. George is not a game-breaker anymore, but he's a respectable #2 lately.
Back in week 2, George rushed for 15/46/0 against the Colts.
Indianapolis has not exactly been shutting down the opposition lately - the
Patriots hit them for 23/56/2 TDs last week, and the Bills got 27/110/2 against
the Colts two weeks ago. Currently, the Colts are the 19th ranked rush D in
the land, allowing an average of 119.7 yards per game (with 12 rushing scores
given up this year).
The Titans are in decent health at this point in the season, while the Colts
list the following players: LB Jim Nelson (collarbone, questionable), DT Montae
Reagor (chest, questionable), and DE Raheem Brock (chest, probable).
The forecast for the Coliseum calls for a high of 45F and a low of 32F, with
a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be about ideal football weather at
1 p.m.
Eddie George has a decent shot at a respectable game against the uninspiring
and dinged-up Colts' defense.
Atlanta's T.J. Duckett vs. The Carolina Defense (Neutral
Matchup)
T.J. Duckett had one of his best games this year against the Panthers in week
4, with 14/100/0 rushing and 1/21/0 receiving. The return of Michael Vick to
the lineup this week will impact the number of carries that Duckett totes, but
may help loosen up the defensive front - we'll wait and see. Anyway, in his
first week as the starting RB in Atlanta, Duckett had a rough outing (12/31/1
rushing with 2/24/0 receiving). He has good potential, but has yet to consistently
hit his stride in 2003.
Carolina has been pretty generous to opposing rushers lately, allowing 28/124/1
to the Eagles last week, and 25/65/1 to the Cowboys two weeks ago. They are
currently 8th in the league giving up an average of 99.8 rushing yards per game,
with 6 scores allowed to date (33% of them in the past two weeks, though). Mike
Rucker was 4th among all IDP DL last week, with 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, a
sack, 1 interception and a pass defensed.
LB Dan Morgan (head, questionable) and LB Brian Allen (ankle, probable) are
listed for the Panthers. Atlanta is in good shape on this unit.
This game is being played in the Georgia Dome, so weather is not an issue.
Carolina plays solid rush defense, but Vick and Duckett will test their capabilities
on Sunday. This one looks pretty even heading into the game, given Duckett's
success against the Panthers last time around.
Arizona's Marcel Shipp vs. The San Francisco Defense (Neutral
Matchup)
Marcel Shipp has been stone cold of late, with a lame 14/34/0 rushing and 1/10/0
receiving in the game last week. He's only managed 47/153/0 and 5/40/0 rushing
and receiving in the last 3 games (42nd in FP per game among all fantasy RB's
during that span). Despite their vaunted line, the Cardinals average a mediocre
3.9 yards per carry this season (18th in the NFL). There's just not much to
get excited about here. However, the last time Shipp played the 49'ers (week
8), he torched them for 35/165/0 rushing (2/4/0 receiving), so he had good luck
against them earlier this season.
The Green Bay Packers ripped apart the 49'ers defensive front two weeks ago
(48/243/0), while last week Baltimore crammed 29/117/2 down their throat - the
49'ers aren't getting the job done in this phase lately. Those kinds of numbers
are atypical this season, as the team averages 102.4 rushing yards allowed per
game (11th in the NFL) with only 8 scores surrendered to date. Cracks are definitely
showing in the San Francisco armor lately, though.
Starting LB Jeff Ulbrich (ankle/thigh, probable) missed the game last week
for the 49'ers. Also listed is LB Brandon Moore (thumb). Arizona says that they
are in good shape.
The forecast for 3-Com Park calls for a high of 58F and a low of 46F, with
a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be a great day for a ball game.
Both of these teams have been off-pace in the last few games - neither looks
like it will dominate the other in this phase of the game.
Dallas' Troy Hambrick/Aveion Cason/Richie Anderson vs. The
Philadelphia Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Dallas' rushing attack isn't doing much of anything these days. Troy Hambrick
got all of 3 carries last week (3/2/0), Cason saw 4 (4/25/0), and Richie Anderson
chipped in 5/22/1. Of the three, Anderson has been the most valuable fantasy
back over the past 3 weeks (29th in FP per game) with 8/27/1 rushing and 17/147/1
receiving during that span. Back in week 6, Hambrick was the most productive
back against Philadelphia, with 18/46/1 rushing and 2/14/0 receiving. Cason
had 7/31/0 rushing and 1/-1/0 receiving, while Anderson put up 4/11/0 rushing
and 3/16/0 receiving. It looks like a poor RBBC is the plan going forward in
Dallas this season, leaving little fantasy value to be had heading into fantasy
league playoffs.
Philadelphia has been coping with some top backs in recent weeks - Stephen
Davis and the Panthers put up 29/136/0 against them last week (Davis was basically
shut down in the second half, though), while two weeks ago the Eagles barely
survived Deuce McAllister and company (24/199/2). They've been pretty vulnerable
in this phase of the game all year, ranking 22nd in the NFL allowing an average
of 121.8 rushing yards per game (with 8 TDs given up to date).
Dallas comes into the game very healthy. Philadelphia saw DE Jerome McDougle
(ankle, probable) miss a few snaps last week, but is also in good health for
this stage of the season.
The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 37F and a low
of 32F, with a 30% chance of precipitation. The moisture could fall as rain,
sleet or snow - if it comes down hard around game time, the field will be slick
and ball handling will become a big issue in the course of the game.
Dallas has trouble generating much while running the ball - Philadelphia has
trouble containing the run. Sounds like an ugly but even matchup to us.
Kansas City's Priest Holmes vs. The Denver Broncos (Neutral
Matchup)
Kansas City clinches the AFC West with a win in this game, while Denver is fighting
for it's playoff chances as a wild-card. However, things have changed a lot
since these two teams dueled to a 24-23 finish back in week 5. For one thing,
Denver has lost LB's John Mobley and Ian Gold to IR since then, and Al Wilson
is playing with a neck problem that leaves his arms numb for long stretches
of the game. Even with the trio of LB's in the game, Priest Holmes had a 100+
combined yards game last time (17/97/0 rushing and 4/14/0 receiving). Holmes
is coming into this game pretty hot, with 68/315/3 rushing and 14/160/0 receiving
in his last 3 games (4th best RB in FP per game during that 3 week period).
His OL is as spectacular as ever, averaging 4.5 yards per carry as a team this
season (8th in the NFL).
Denver's defense ground the Oakland Raiders into the ground last week, but
coughed up 23/120/0 rushing on the way to the W. Chicago hit them for 33/106/1
two weeks ago - the Broncos aren't shutting down people completely in recent
weeks. This year, they are the 6th ranked rushing D in the land, allowing an
average of 94.3 rushing yards per game, with a league-leading 5 scores given
up to date. It's pretty tough to punch the ball into the end-zone on these guys.
Kansas City lists Holmes as probable to play through his sore shoulder, and
T Marcus Spears (foot) and G Brian Walters (shoulder) are probable as well.
The forecast for Mile High Stadium calls for a high of 51F and a low of 32F,
with a 10% chance of precipitation. It should be a great day for a football
game.
Two top units lock horns in this game. We think Holmes is the best RB in the
game but this seems like a pretty neutral matchup.
Oakland's Tyrone Wheatley/Charlie Garner vs. The Pittsburgh
Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Tyrone Wheatley had good success running the ball against Denver last week
(8/85/0 with a long of 41 yards, with 1/7/0 receiving) but couldn't find pay-dirt.
Charlie Garner was in a change-of-pace role, gathering 6/14/0 rushing and 4/20/0
receiving. Wheatley has become the headliner in recent weeks, with 59/271/2
rushing and 2/13/0 receiving (16th among fantasy backs in FP per game during
the past 3 weeks). Charlie Garner is way down the RB board at 52nd with 15/50/0
rushing and 6/38/0 receiving to his credit. Zack Crockett continues to get the
odd short-yardage plunge from week to week.
Pittsburgh has been playing pretty solidly in this phase during recent weeks:
Cincinnati's tandem hit them for 25/113/0 last week, and career backup James
Jackson racked up 25/94/0 for Cleveland the week before. On average, the Steelers
give up 100 yards per game this season (9th in the NFL), with 10 rushing scores
surrendered to date - they have been on the same pace in recent weeks.
Oakland has a few injury woes: Oakland's starting G Frank Middleton has a quadriceps
injury that kept him out of the last game (not listed), C Barrett Robbins (knee)
and G Mo Collins has a gimpy knee (questionable). RB Chris Hetherington has
an illness (probable).
The forecast for Heinz Field calls for a high of 35F and a low of 28F, with
a 10% chance of precipitation. Wintry but clear conditions, in other words.
Wheatley has been fairly productive lately, and Pittsburgh allows a steady-but-modest
amount of rushing yardage week in and week out. This looks like a neutral matchup
from where we sit.
Philadelphia's Correll Buckhalter/Brian Westbrook/Duce Staley
vs. The Dallas Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Philadelphia just keeps on mixing it up in the rushing phase of the game. Last
week, nobody carried the ball more than 9 times - Staley had 8/77/0, Westbrook
gained 9/52/1 and Buckhalter put up 7/18/1 (McNabb chipped in with 7/54/0).
As a team, they get the job done on the ground - but from the fantasy perspective,
none of these backs is a game-breaker. Both Staley (103 total yards) and Westbrook
(101 total yards) broke the 100 yard barrier last week, though. It definitely
looks like Buckhalter is going to get goal-line carries when short-yardage situations
come up - otherwise, the team is rotating all 3 backs on a situational basis
from week to week. Back in week 6, all 3 backs scored a TD, with Buckhalter
gaining 11/52/1 rushing and 1/2/0 receiving; Westbrook was good for 8/37/1 rushing
and Duce Staley had 7/28/0 rushing and 3/66/1 receiving.
Dallas sports a tough-nosed defensive front that ranks 3rd in the NFL allowing
a mere 86.8 rushing yards per game on average, with only 6 rushing TDs given
away all year. Two weeks ago, vs. Carolina, the Panthers put up 28/75/1 on Dallas;
last week, it was Miami that pounded away (44 rushes for 133 yards and 1 score,
but a poor 3.0 ypc average). Generally, teams don't enjoy much success in this
phase vs. Dallas, but they have given up TDs in recent weeks and to this Eagles
team in particular.
G John Welbourn has been sidelined by his bad knee (probable) for the Eagles
- Dallas is in good health right now.
The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 37F and a low
of 32F, with a 30% chance of precipitation. The moisture could fall as rain,
sleet or snow - if it comes down hard around game time, the field will be slick
and ball handling will become a big issue in the course of the game.
The Eagles run the ball well as a team, while Dallas is showing some vulnerability
in this phase of the game lately - at home, still see a fairly neutral matchup
made even cloudier by the Eagles crowded running back corps.
Washington's Trung Canidate/Rock Cartwright vs. The New
York Giants' Defense (Neutral Matchup)
Trung Canidate had his finest game of the season last week, with 16/115/0 rushing
(and an embarrassing 1/-6/0 receiving, tis true). The big knock on Canidate
all year long has been that he just doesn't score many TDs (1 rushing and 1
receiving to date). Cartwright had 4/27/1 in the game (it was his first TD since
week 4). The Redskin's attack is very inconsistent in 2003, so don't get too
excited over Canidate's big game - over the last 3 weeks he is the 31st rated
fantasy RB with 46/202/1 rushing and 4/19/0 receiving - by and large, he is
not a quality fantasy start week in and week out. Back in week 3, Canidate (9/46/0
rushing) was sharing the load with Ladell Betts (8/39/0 rushing), but that isn't
likely to be the scenario this time around, thanks to Betts' broken arm.
The Giants folded for the Bills last week to the tune of 36/151/1, but contained
Tampa's attack to 38/93/1 two weeks ago. They have been mostly mediocre all
season, with an average of 117.1 rushing yards allowed per game (17th in the
NFL) and 12 rushing scores given away to date. Not horrible - but not impressive,
either.
The Giants are pretty healthy along the defensive front (their secondary is
another story), while Washington missed starting C Larry Moore (foot, questionable)
last week, and also played without starting T Chris Samuels (knee, doubtful).
RB's Betts (arm), Cartwright (ankle) and Chad Morton (ankle) are all probable
to play this week.
The forecast for Giants Stadium calls for a high of 37F and a low of 31F, with
a 30% chance of precipitation. The moisture could fall as rain, sleet or snow
- if it comes down hard around game time, the field will be slick and ball handling
will become a big issue in the course of the game.
Two average units play for pride in this matchup - neither looks like it will
dominate the other from where we stand.
Chicago's Anthony Thomas vs. The Green Bay Defense (Tough
Matchup)
Anthony Thomas missed the game last week with viral pneumonia, and Brock Forsey
filled in admirably in his absence (27/134/1). The team hopes that Thomas can
make it back in time for this divisional show-down - he ran for 13/110/1 (with
2/4/0 receiving) the last time these two teams met back in week 4. Before falling
ill, Thomas had racked up 44/152/1 rushing in his past two games (24th among
all RB's in FP per game during that span).
Green Bay haven't been push-overs in this phase lately, holding the 49ers attack
to 21/73/0 two weeks ago and then controlling Detroit's group (33/100/1) last
week. The Packers are ranked as the 16th rush D in the NFL this season, allowing
an average of 113.1 rushing yards per game with 9 rushing scores given away
to date. They have been playing better than their average would indicate in
recent weeks, though.
Chicago has big problems on their OL right now, with starting RG Chris Vallarial
(torn oblique muscle, questionable) and starting RT Aaron Gibson (knee, questionable)
on the injury report - they have exactly one healthy backup OL right now (Josh
Warner). LB Nick Barnett (ankle, probable) and reserve DL Kenny Peterson (knee,
questionable) missed the game on Thanksgiving for the Pack. DT Gilbert Brown
(knee, probable) and LB Paris Lenon (knee, probable) are also on the injury
report.
The forecast for Lambeau Field calls for a high of 34F and a low of 26F, with
a 10% chance of precipitation. Cold but clear conditions are the order of the
day, it appears.
Thomas has OL problems, and is coming into Green Bay's house - this looks like
a tough matchup for the Bears.
Cincinnati's Corey Dillon/Rudi Johnson vs. The Baltimore
Ravens (Tough Matchup)
The Bengals have a two-headed monster in the backfield nowadays, and they are
winning games with the combination - don't look for things to change anytime
soon. Dillon and Johnson each saw 10 carries last week (10/48/0 for Dillon,
10/29/0 for Johnson) and both caught 1 pass for minimal gains. 34/177/0 and
4/23/0 is what Dillon has notched in the past 3 games, with Johnson grabbing
48/259/0 and 5/37/0. Obviously, in the current climate neither guy is setting
the fantasy football world on fire. Dillon, in the featured role back in week
7, scraped together 18/39/1 vs. Baltimore (Johnson only got 3/5/0 rushing).
The Ravens were solid against the 49ers last week, with Hearst/Barlow and company
gaining 30/106/0. Two weeks ago it was Shaun Alexander and company that didn't
find the end-zone (32/133/0) - in fact, the Ravens lead the league with a mere
5 rushing TDs allowed all year long. Ray Lewis was a fantasy football icon last
week with 14 solo tackles, 4 assists, 1 interception and 1 pass defensed (1st
among all IDP LB's).
The Bengals have good health among their unit, and the Ravens are in good shape,
with only DE Anthony Weaver (neck, questionable) and LB Terrell Suggs (foot,
probable) on the initial injury report. Injuries aren't a big factor in this
game.
The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 37F and a low of
35F, with a 30% chance of precipitation. If the precipitation comes down hard
around game time, field conditions will get slick and the ball will be harder
to handle.
Playing the Ravens is always tough, and a lot is on the line in this game.
It looks like an uphill battle for the visiting Bengals and their backs.
Houston's Domanick Davis vs. The Jacksonville Defense (Tough
Matchup)
Domanick Davis is finally rounding out his fantasy performances by scoring
in the red-zone. Now that Stacey Mack is on IR due to a turf toe injury, Davis
has been kept in at the goal-line in recent weeks, and has responded with 24/101/2
rushing last week, following a poor 24/69/0 effort vs. New England two weeks
ago. His 74/238/2 rushing and 6/66/0 receiving over the past three weeks puts
Davis at #14 among fantasy RB during that span in FP per game. He's a solid
#2 for most fantasy owners. Davis came close to 100 combined yards in the two
teams' last game (week 4), but did not score.
The Jaguars have been limiting opposing backs in recent weeks, holding the
Buccaneers to 19/77/1 last week and smothering the Jets to the tune of 21/61/0
two weeks ago. They are the second ranked rush D in the league, averaging only
85.4 yards allowed per game, with 10 scores surrendered to date. This is a tough
unit that is playing hard despite the lack-luster record that the team has posted
in 2003.
Davis' team was without backup OL Milford Brown last week (knee, not listed).
Davis has injuries to both legs (ankles) and was held out of practice Wednesday
(questionable).G Zach Wiegert is probable to play (chest). Jacksonville is in
good shape, health-wise, with only LB Mike Peterson (shoulder) on the injury
report as questionable.
The forecast for ALLTEL Stadium calls for a high of 51F and a low of 44F, with
a 10% chance of precipitation. This weather is why people live there despite
the sultry Florida summers.
Davis is an up-and-coming back, but Jacksonville is playing at an elite level
right now. Advantage, Jaguars.
Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The Tennessee Defense (Tough
Matchup)
Edgerrin James had a decent game last week, with 25/88/0 rushing and 8/50/0
receiving - but he failed to punch in the ball from the 1 yard line at the end
of the game, keeping him from an excellent fantasy outing. He has put up 89/323/5
rushing and 20/122/0 receiving in the last 3 games, second-best among all fantasy
RB's during that span, so the lack of scoring last week was atypical of his
recent performances. When he faced the Titans back in week 2, James rushed 30
times for 120 yards and 1 TD, with 2/9/0 receiving - he's had good success against
the Titans this season.
Tennessee is very tough in this phase this season, allowing a mere 75.8 rushing
yards per game on average, with 7 TDs given up to date. Last week, the Jets
managed to wiggle for 30/97/1 against the Titans, while two weeks ago the Falcons
were stone-walled to 20/25/1.
Jevon Kearse continues to be sidelined for the Titans (ankle, questionable).
LB Rocky Calmus is out. Indianapolis is waiting for OT Tarik Glenn to get back
on the field (knee, questionable) and RG Steve Sciullo injured his neck last
week (questionable). RB's James Mungro (toe) and Detron Smith (knee) are out,
while fellow RB's Ricky Williams (ankle) and Dominic Rhodes (knee/shoulder)
are probable.
The forecast for the Coliseum calls for a high of 45F and a low of 32F, with
a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be about ideal football weather at
1 p.m.
Playing the Titans is never easy for running backs, although they have coughed
up some points recently. At home, we give the nod to the Titans.
Miami's Ricky Williams vs. The New England Defense (Tough
Matchup)
With the return of Jay Fiedler to the Dolphins' lineup, the entire offense
seems to suddenly have come alive. Last week, vs. Dallas' tough defense, Williams
racked up 31/104/0 rushing and 4/41/0 receiving. He has 90/316/2 rushing and
9/75/0 receiving in the last 3 games, good for 9th in FP per game among all
fantasy RB's. The Dolphins are averaging a sub-par 3.7 yards per carry this
season, but at least Williams has returned to top-ten form. The last time he
faced New England, in week 7, Williams had 27/94/0 rushing and 2/9/0 receiving.
New England has been extremely tough in this phase of the game recently, holding
the Colts to 29/98/0 last week, and smothering Houston (30/89/0) two weeks ago.
The team ranks as the 5th best rush D in the land (91.9 rushing yards allowed
per game, on average) with only 8 rushing scores allowed this year. They are
playing up to their lofty ranking in recent games, clearly.
G. Todd Perry (elbow, probable) and FB Obafemi Ayanbadejo (knee) join Williams
(shoulder) on the initial injury report as probable to play this weekend. LB
Mike Vrabel is ill and questionable to play at this point, while DT Dan Klecko
has a hand injury (probable).
The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 58F and a low of 46F,
with a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be a great day for a ball game.
The New England D is very tough to run the ball on, and Williams had limited
success the last time these two teams met. Advantage, New England.
New England's Kevin Faulk / Mike Cloud vs. The Miami Defense
(Tough Matchup)
Kevin Faulk had a poor outing last week against the Colts, with 15/42/0 rushing
and 5/36/0 receiving (Mike Cloud vultured 2 TDs from Faulk in the game (4/6/2)).
None-the-less, he is clearly the #1 back at this point in the season (Antowain
Smith was inactive for the game last week) - Faulk is approaching 1000 yards
combined, but has yet to score a TD (Smith or Cloud is used in goal-line situations).
Don't expect a blizzard of TDs from Faulk and you won't be disappointed. The
last time these teams played, back in week 7, Faulk and Cloud were the backs
(18/38/0 rushing and 5/31/0 receiving for Faulk; 5/8/0 rushing for Cloud).
Miami's rush D has been mediocre in the last few games, allowing 16/91/1 to
the Dallas Cowboys last week, and 32/129/1 to the Redskins two weeks ago. This
season, they are the 4th ranked rush D in the league allowing only 88.9 rushing
yards per game, with 7 rushing scores surrendered to date - but they are not
up to that standard lately. Zach Thomas was big in IDP circles last week, with
5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, 1 interception and 1 pass defensed (4th best
LB last week).
New England is in good health coming into the game, while Miami lists DE Rob
Burnett (knee/ankle, doubtful), DT Tim Bowens (calf, questionable), LB Junior
Seau (shoulder, questionable), DT Larry Chester (quadriceps, probable), DT Jeff
Zgonina (calf, probable) and DE Jason Taylor (shoulder, probable).
The forecast for Gillette Stadium calls for a high of 58F and a low of 46F,
with a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be a great day for a ball game.
Miami is tough to run on most weeks, and Faulk didn't do well against them
last time around. Advantage, Miami.
New York Jets' Curtis Martin vs. The Buffalo Defense (Tough
Matchup)
Curtis Martin is finally producing fantasy points at a decent clip again, with
24/67/1 rushing and 2/3/0 receiving last week (LaMont Jordan did not see the
ball last week). 57/228/1 and 11/82/0 rushing and receiving over the past 3
games is enough to put Martin at 18th among all fantasy RB's in FP per game
- not great, but not horrible, either. The Jets now average 3.9 yards per carry
as a team - that's much, much better than earlier this season. Earlier this
year, Martin put up 20/77/0 rushing against the Bills.
The Bills smothered Tiki Barber last week (12/20/0 rushing) en route to their
24-7 victory. Two weeks ago the Colts put up 30/103/2 on the Bills - they've
been up and down lately. This season, the team ranks 7th in the NFL allowing
97.4 yards rushing on average, with 10 scores surrendered to date. Aaron Schobel
was the 2nd ranked DL last week, with 5 solo tackles, 3 sacks and 1 fumble recovery.
DE Keith McKenzie is questionable with a leg injury this week. The Jets' unit
is in good health.
The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 36F and a low of
25F, with a 10% chance of precipitation. Gusty winds are often part of visiting
Buffalo at this time of year, making the air seem even colder than it is - ball
handling could be an issue in the cold.
The Jets have been pretty anemic in this phase against quality defenses (which
Buffalo is) - we give the nod to the home team in this matchup.
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