Rushing Matchups

Hi Folks,

Here's our look at the Rushing Matchups for this week.

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Priest Holmes is playing the toughest rush defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter. In the same way, if the worst RB on your roster has a "great" matchup, that doesn't necessarily mean you start him, it just means he'll likely fare better this week than he normally would.

Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.

Let's jump to it.

Joe

Bye Weeks

St. Louis: Lamar Gordon is on bye
New York Jets: Curtis Martin is on bye
Baltimore: Jamal Lewis is on bye
Houston: Stacey Mack and Domanick Davis are on bye.

Carolina's Stephen Davis vs. The New Orleans' Defense (Great Matchup)

Carolina's Stephen Davis is an early-season juggernaut, with 76 carries for 406 yards and 1 score rushing, with 5/49/0 receiving to his credit. He has been over 100 yards rushing in each of his 3 games, although the low-scoring style of this offense is limiting his opportunities to find the end-zone. However, he punched in a score this week, so one can hardly complain about a 21/153/1 with 4/38/0 performance (2nd best fantasy day in the NFL last week among running backs). The only problem we can see with Davis is that backup DeShaun Foster is getting some red-zone touches and looks like he could vulture the occasional score from Davis if the coaching staff keeps putting him in at the goal-line (he did lose the ball once last week, and doesn't look like a major threat to Davis - just a slightly worrisome annoyance).

New Orleans' defense is luke-warm in this phase of the game, ranking 19th in the NFL with an average of 107.8 rushing yards allowed per contest (3 rushing scores surrendered so far). The Edgerrin James-less Colts put up 28/100/0 with a 3-headed rotation last week, while Peyton Manning bombed the secondary for 6 passing scores - the rushing D just isn't very solid, generally speaking.

Injuries are a major issue for the Saints - starting LB Sedrick Hodge, starting DE Darren Howard, and starting DT Jonathan Sullivan are all out of the lineup right now, and starting LDT Kenny Smith sprained his right knee in the game last week (out). Reserve LB Cie Grant has yet to recover from his knee injury, and is doubtful to play again this week. Carolina is relatively healthy, with no major problems to report.

The forecast for Ericsson Stadium calls for a high of 73°F and a low of 51°F, with a 30% chance of precipitation. Heavy rain would slow down the game and make ball-handling an issue for McAllister and Brooks on hand-offs.

Davis has an excellent offensive line, and is playing like an elite NFL back - the Saints are injury riddled and none-too-good. A big edge goes to the home team in this matchup.

Chicago's Anthony Thomas / Kordell Stewart vs. The Oakland Defense (Great Matchup)

Kordell Stewart isn't much of a passer, but he is definitely option 1B in the rushing attack in Chicago. In fact, Stewart has carried the ball almost as often as Anthony Thomas (24 vs. 29 carries) and each has 1 rushing score. Thomas is 29/178/1 this year (6.1 ypc average) and Stewart is 24/117/1 (4.9 ypc average). As a team, the bears are the 26th ranked rushing team in the NFL in terms of total rushing yardage (316), but they have averaged almost 5 yards per carry on their 65 carries to get there. That's not too shabby, considering how banged up their line is - also, Thomas got his engine going vs. Green Bay (13/110/1 for a 8.5 ypc average with a long of 67 yards). There is reason for hope in this phase of the game, long-suffering Bears' fans.

Oakland's defense is pretty porous defending the run so far in 2003 - they rank 30th in the league allowing an average of 154.3 yards per game, with 5 rushing scores surrendered so far in 2003. Running behind a patched-up and make-shift line, in an offense almost devoid of receivers to catch passes for Drew Brees, LaDainian Tomlinson tore up the Raiders for 28/187/1 TD (a 6.7 ypc average with a long run of 55 yards). That's some pretty sorry play on the part of the Raiders.

LB Bill Romanowski is struggling to overcome a series of concussions and may not step on the field again. DT Dana Stubblefield (ankle) and DE Sam Williams (knee) are questionable. Offensive tackle Mark Colombo is still unable to play due to his bad knee, but G Chris Villarial made it back onto the field last week (good news for the Bears there - he's probable on the injury report). RB Anthony Thomas has a sore shoulder (probable).

The forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 56°F and a low of 45°F, with a 20% chance of precipitation. That sounds like great football weather to us.

Oakland has basically laid down for the opposing backs they have played this season, so far. There's a great opportunity here for Thomas and Stewart to enjoy success on Sunday.

Jacksonville's Fred Taylor vs. The San Diego Defense (Great Matchup)

Fred Taylor is playing hard in 2003, while his team has struggled with injuries (Mark Brunell, among others), a rookie QB (Byron Leftwich) and a suspension (Jimmy Smith). Despite the dearth of play-makers on the depleted roster, Taylor has still managed to put up 72/335/1 rushing and 17/99/0 receiving, which puts him inside the top ten among fantasy backs so far (9th). If his team-mates would help penetrate the red-zone more often, he could do even better. Help in the form of Jimmy Smith arrives this week - he's back from suspension - so that should help open up the running game for Taylor.

San Diego tried to remake its defense in the off-season, and looks to have failed utterly to improve the situation. Currently, the Chargers are an abysmal 29th in the NFL, allowing 150 rushing yards per game on average, and they have given up 5 rushing scores so far in 2003. Last week, Oakland's troubled offense managed to slap down 24/120/1 (a 5.0 ypc average) against the San Diego "doormat" defense in the rushing phase last week.

San Diego doesn't even have the bad excuse of injuries to point at - their defensive front is relatively healthy. Jacksonville is similarly healthy among this unit on their team.

The forecast for ALLTEL Stadium calls for a high of 84°F and a low of 66°F, with a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be a great day to play some football.

Taylor is a top-shelf back, and San Diego is a bottom-feeding defense. A big edge flows to the home team and Taylor in this matchup.

Minnesota's Moe Williams / Onterrio Smith vs. The Atlanta Defense (Great Matchup)

The Vikings' awesome offensive line (LT Bryant McKinnie, LG Chris Liwienski, C Matt Birk, RG David Dixon, and RT Mike Rosenthal) have really come together as an elite unit in 2003. Even without the teams' top back, Michael Bennett, the Vikings as a team are averaging 4.6 yards per carry (127/585) - no matter who is carrying the ball, the holes are gaping for the running backs. Last week, the Vikings' assault was more of a RBBC than it had been in weeks past, with rookie Onterrio Smith getting some quality touches - he produced 10/43/1 TD rushing, with a long of 11 yards. Smith was mainly in the game on first and second down, with Williams stepping in for third down situations/obvious passing downs (13/43/0 rushing, with 2/16/0 receiving on the day). In fact, the team used a power attack early in the game - 7 straight runs between the tackles in a row - that led to Smith's 5-yard rushing TD. After that point, the passing game became paramount (Frerotte threw for 4 scores and 0 Int. on the day) - but not because the Vikings couldn't run the ball. This week, expect to see more of the same, in fact, Mike Tice has said we may see Onterrio Smith gain 100 yards this week.

Atlanta's defense was busily getting trampled last week, allowing a whopping 153 yards to Stephen Davis (on only 21 carries - a 7+ yards-per-carry average) and 39/193/1 TD to the Panthers as a team (Davis got the TD, too). This season, the Falcons are the 28th ranked run defense in the NFL, allowing 149.8 yards per game on average - they have also coughed up 6 rushing TD's in 4 games.

A big part of Atlanta's problem is the mounting toll of injuries - starting LB Sam Rogers is having a lot of trouble with his injured knee (loose bodies in the joint keep causing swelling and pain - doubtful), and his backup Will Overstreet keeps re-injuring his surgically repaired left shoulder (doubtful). DE Travis Hall is probable with a sore elbow. A rash of injuries in the secondary has also increased the pressure on the LB corps to help out in pass coverage. Basically, teams can move the ball at will on the Falcons' defenders right now.

This game is being played in a dome, so weather is no factor.

Minnesota is firing on all cylinders (even without Daunte Culpepper), and the Falcons look just plain bad. Advantage, Minnesota.

Oakland's Charlie Garner / Tyrone Wheatley vs. The Chicago Defense (Great Matchup)

Just when the Raiders are struggling on offense, along comes the answer to their prayers. The Bears couldn't stop your grandma from running for a first down on them - they are dead last in the NFL, allowing an average of 183.7 rushing yards per game so far, and they have coughed up 5 rushing scores in only 3 games this season. Ahman Green totally humiliated the unit for 19/176/2 (9.3 ypc average, with a long run of 60 yards - stopped only by the end-zone) on Monday Night Football during the Bears' embarrassing home opener.

Oakland, meanwhile, just barely managed to squeak past the WR-deprived Chargers, with a 34-31 victory. Charlie Garner started to get his groove back, racking up 12/70/1 (a 5.8 ypc average with a long run of 24 yards), and added 1/8/0 receiving. Tyrone Wheatley was plugged in a few times (8/28/0 rushing and 1/1/0 receiving). Zack Crockett was 1/2/0 with 1/12/0 receiving in spot duty. So far, Garner is the 12th ranked fantasy back in the land, with 36/164/1 rushing and 15/157/1 receiving, despite the Raiders' offensive woes.

Oakland's OL is banged up: G Mo Collins (knee), T Lincoln Kennedy (ankle) and backup C Matt Stinchcomb (shoulder) are all questionable to play, as is RB/KR Ronney Jenkins (ankle). LB Bobbie Howard (hamstring) is out for the Bears, while DT Keith Traylor (knee) is questionable.

The forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 56°F and a low of 45°F, with a 20% chance of precipitation. That sounds like great football weather to us.

Oakland's offense has sputtered and gasped to begin the season, but the Bears are absolutely woeful on defense. Advantage, Oakland.

Dallas' Troy Hambrick vs. The Arizona Defense (Good Matchup)

Troy Hambrick did a good job carrying the ball last week - 24/127/1 (a 5.3 ypc average with a long of 31), with 1/6/0 receiving. Dallas as a team spanked the Jets for 41/202/1 on the day - but let's be honest here: the Jets' rushing defense is among the worst in the NFL. The Cowboys should have shredded the Jets - so doing so was no great achievement. For the season, the Cowboys are 10th in the NFL with 101 rushes for 458 yards (a 4.5 ypc average) - their offensive line is opening up some good lanes for the running backs, that much is clear.

Arizona's run defense is made of slightly sterner stuff than the Jets', ranking right in the middle of the NFL pack at 15th, allowing 98.8 rushing yards per game on average, and they have surrendered 4 rushing scores so far in 2003. Last week against the Rams, they coughed up 41/133/2 (a 3.2 ypc average) on the ground, so they are definitely headed the wrong direction in this department at the moment. MLB Ronald McKinnon led the defensive front with 8 solo tackles and 2 assists.

Dallas' starting RT Ryan Young missed the game last week due to his injured knee (questionable). Arizona missed starting LDT Wendell Bryant last week (ankle - questionable), and backup DL Kenny King (toe). King isn't likely to play again this week (out).

The forecast for Texas Stadium calls for a high of 80°F and a low of 62°F, with a 30% chance of precipitation. If the rain comes down hard, the field could get slick and the ball will be slick, making ball handling an issue.

Hambrick and the Cowboys bring a solid rushing attack to the table, while the Cardinals are luke-warm in this department and coming off a bad performance vs. the Rams. We give the nod to the home team in this matchup - advantage, Dallas.

San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs. The Jacksonville Defense (Good Matchup)

You can't blame LaDainian Tomlinson for the loss last week - all he did was pass a 21 yard TD to Drew Brees, rush 28 times for 187 yards and a score, while adding 7 receptions for 24 yards to the team effort. It makes you tired just thinking about it, doesn't it? After 4 weeks, Tomlinson is the 4th best fantasy back in the land, with 80/419/2 rushing with 25/129/0 receiving and the lone 21 yard touchdown pass. All this, while running behind a patchwork offensive line - how scary would he be behind, say, Minnesota's line?

Jacksonville is sinking fast, partly because of how many points they are surrendering. Last week they lost to Houston (24 points), after dropping games to Indianapolis (23 points), Buffalo (38 points) and Carolina (24 points). In the rushing phase, they rank as the 7th best defense, only allowing 87 rushing yards per game on average - but they have coughed up 5 rushing TD's in 4 weeks.

Part of the Jaguars' problem is the injury bug - starting SLB Keith Mitchell (neck - probable), and backup LB's Shannon Tyler (calf - probable) and Eric Westmoreland (knee - doubtful) all missed last week's game. San Diego lost RT Vaughn Parker for the season a week ago, and RG Solomon Page was unable to play last week due to an ankle injury (questionable). Tomlinson and FB Lorenzo Neal are probable to play through minor complaints (tweaked calf muscles). Also, the Charger's receiving stable is hard hit, leaving Brees with few targets to throw at.

The forecast for ALLTEL Stadium calls for a high of 84°F and a low of 66°F, with a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be a great day to play some football.

Look for Tomlinson to enjoy a productive day against the injury-burdened Jaguars.

San Francisco's Garrison Hearst / Kevan Barlow vs. The Detroit Defense (Good Matchup)

As usual, the tandem of Hearst/Barlow ranks high in the NFL in terms of production - the team as a whole is 6th in the league with 530 yards on 117 carries (a 4.5 ypc average). As usual, the two distribute the carries fairly evenly between them, making for 2 mediocre fantasy backs rather than 1 really great player. Last week, Hearst was the 22nd best fantasy back, with 23/56/0 in the rushing department and 6/31/0 receiving, while Barlow checked in at 30th, with 11 carries for 72 yards and 0 scores. The team was 25/148/0 averaging 5.8 yards per carry.

Detroit's defense, meanwhile, put a scare into the Bronco's limping unit (sans Portis, with a gimpy Mike Anderson struggling to stay in the game) - they held the Broncos to
23/79/0 on the day (a 3.4 ypc average) and Jake Plummer led the team in rushing (6/40/0). For the season, the Lions are in the bottom tier of NFL defenses vs. the run, allowing 125.3 yards rushing per game on average, with 3 rushing scores allowed to date.

MLB Earl Holmes led the defensive front seven with 7 solo tackles and 1 sack.

San Francisco's Kevan Barlow is probable to play despite his strained neck. Starting G Eric Heitmann is doubtful (ankle). T's Derrick Deese (ankle), Scott Gragg (ankle) and Kwame Harris (shoulder), C Jeremy Newberry (ankle) are all probable to play.Detroit's defense is fairly healthy, and lists only

The forecast for 3COM Park calls for a high of 66°F and a low of 55°F, with a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be a great day for some football.

Detroit played a good game against a wounded foe last week. This week, they play one of the league's elite rushing attacks - and they are outgunned. Advantage, San Francisco.

Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The Green Bay Defense (Good Matchup)

Shaun Alexander and the Seahawks are on a roll, opening the season 3-0 - plus, they are coming off a bye week, so they should be well rested for this game. Alexander currently ranks 15th among all fantasy backs, with 51/217/2 rushing and 7/35/1 receiving - but remember, he missed part of the last game due to his wife giving birth to daughter Heaven, so he has only 2 ½ games under his belt - most of the other backs have 4. He has looked very sharp and explosive in his time on the field. Seattle is averaging 4.4 yards per carry as a team (85/377).

Green Bay won a laugher vs. the Bears Monday night, but their defense lost containment on Anthony Thomas to the tune of a 67-yard TD run (Thomas ended the night 13/110/1, while the Bears slapped down 28/181/2 vs. the Pack - a 6.5 ypc average). Green Bay is in the bottom third of the NFL defending the run this season, allowing an average of 118 yards per game on average, with 3 rushing scores allowed to date. WLB Na'il Diggs led the defense with 9 solo tackles, 1 assist (and 2 Int.).

Seattle is rested and ready to play. Green Bay escaped Chicago with no new injuries of note, although DE Joe Johnson tweaked his Achilles (probable) and Aaron Kampmann continues to struggle with his bad ankle (questionable).

The forecast for Lambeau Field calls for a high of 49°F and a low of 42°F, with a 30% chance of precipitation. If the rain comes down hard, it could get cold and miserable on the field - footing could be an issue, even on the heated turf (natural Kentucky bluegrass).

Seattle sports a powerful offense that is starting out of the blocks strong in 2003, while Green Bay's rush defense is less-than-impressive. Even with a huge home-field advantage working for the Packers, we have to give the nod to Seattle in this phase of the game.

Buffalo's Travis Henry / Joe Burns vs. The Cincinnati Defense (Neutral Matchup)

The early word out of Buffalo is that coach Williams is optimistic about Henry's chances to practice this week and to play on Sunday. "He had a real good workout today. He has worked so hard. He was really dejected that he didn't get a chance to play. I'd hope that he would be able to get right back into practice and get started for this week. That's our plan anyway." William's hopes aside, torn rib cartilage usually takes longer to heal than one week, so keep a close eye on Henry's status as the game approaches. If Henry can't go (questionable), the onus would probably fall on Joe Burns again, as Sammy Morris continues to recover from hernia surgery (out). 8/17/0 rushing and 3/34/0 receiving is not exactly a stellar day, but Burns is the only uninjured back besides NFL Europe star Ken Simonton (2/4/0 last week) on the roster. Olandis Gary, where are you? If you are a Bills fan, hope that the Bills draft someone good with the draft pick Gary netted them.

Cincinnati's rush defense is not exactly robust this year (25th in the NFL, allowing 131.3 rushing yards per game on average), and has allowed 4 rushing scores so far. However, last week they stuffed William Green and his poor run-blocking compatriots on the Browns' OL (22/69/0 on the day as a team). Don't be too impressed, though, as the way the Browns are playing right now they would have trouble opening holes against a high school defense.

Buffalo's line is healthy (but only averaging 2.3 yards per carry on the season), while the Cincinnati defense is missing backup LB Riall Johnson currently (questionable).

The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 55°F and a low of 41°F, with a 30% chance of precipitation. If the rains do come, the field could get sloppy and the ball will be slick - that could be a problem for the quarterback/running back exchange, since Bledsoe hasn't had a ton of reps with either Burns or Simonton.

An inept defense squares off against a bottom-feeding attack in this ugly matchup. They both look equally pathetic from where we sit. If Henry can play, he'll still have trouble finding holes to run through.

Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson / Brandon Bennett vs. The Buffalo Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Corey Dillon's injured groin limited him to only 4/20/0 last week, and he looked very tentative and in pain while trying to play. Word out of Cincinnati is that Dillon will take this week off (their bye week is week 6), so that he can heal the injury up properly before attempting to play again. Therefore, expect to see a lot of Rudi Johnson this week - he was the most effective player against the Browns last week at the running back position (15/51/0 rushing and 4/11/0 receiving) and showed some flashes of potential while playing (his long gain of the day was an 11 yard rush). Bennett was an ineffective 5/7/0 rushing with 1/8/0 receiving. Johnson had 17/67/0 rushing (3.9 ypc average) and 6/34/0 receiving in limited action last season (spot duty in 4 games).

Buffalo's defense started the season with great promise, but has faded badly in the last few weeks, allowing Philadelphia's formerly-inept rushing attack to parade all over the field (34/177/2 TD's last week). They now rank 26th in the NFL, allowing an average of 135.8 rushing yards per game on average, and have surrendered 4 rushing TD's so far. Takeo Spikes did his best to stem the tide (4 solo tackles and 5 assists, to lead the team), but he and his team-mates allowed Philly to convert 9 of 16 third downs and generally failed to stop the Eagles, period.

Aside from Dillon's woes (questionable), the Bengals' unit is in fairly good shape. Buffalo's defense is also very healthy.

The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 55°F and a low of 41°F, with a 30% chance of precipitation. If the rains do come, the field could get sloppy and the ball will be slick - especially a problem for the quarterback/running back exchange, since Kitna hasn't had a ton of reps with either Johnson or Bennett.

Buffalo's run defense is fairly inept, but the Bengals will be fielding back-up talent to attack the unit. This looks like an even matchup before the fact to us.

Denver's Clinton Portis vs. The Kansas City Defense (Neutral Matchup)

As of this writing, Clinton Portis is still working on getting his injured chest/ribs into game shape. However, in an AFC West showdown of this magnitude, we're going to assume that he will do everything possible to get into the game on Sunday. Before sitting out the game vs. Detroit, Portis was the 6th-ranked fantasy football running back in the land. This week, even after missing a game, he is 11th, with 46/291/2 rushing and 6/39/0 receiving. When he isn't injured, Portis regularly makes the oppositions' defenses look foolish.

Kansas City has come a long way with their project of improving the defense. So far this year, they rank 20th in the NFL allowing an average of 108.3 rushing yards per game, but have only allowed 1 rushing touchdown all year. Last week, they allowed the insanely productive Jamal Lewis 26/115/1 TD (a 4.4 ypc average) - which doesn't sound like a great performance, until you know that Lewis and the Ravens have rolled for 785 yards on 132 carries (an astronomical 5.9 ypc average so far) this season. All told, the Chiefs gave up 36/202/1 on the ground - but only allowed the lone rushing score in the bend-but-don't-break performance. MLB Mike Maslowski led the charge with 9 solo tackles and 2 assists.

Besides Portis' rib problems (questionable), Mike Anderson is trying to play through a very sore knee. C Tom Nalen's ankle is sore (questionable). T Matt Lepsis (knee) and Ephraim Salaam (knee) are both probable to play. Kansas City's starting RDE Vonnie Holliday injured his groin last week (questionable), and backup LB Kawika Mitchell (doubtful) missed the game due last week due to a sore hamstring. DT John Browning's shoulder is still sore (questionable). LB's Shawn Barber (forearm), Fred Jones (foot) and Mike Maslowski (knee) are probable to play.

The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium calls for a high of 68°F and a low of 48°F, with a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be a great day to play some football.

Watch Portis' status as the game approaches - if he can play, this is a neutral matchup in the hostile environs of Arrowhead stadium. If he can't play, things look a lot harder for the Broncos.

Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The Seattle Defense (Neutral Matchup)

The only bad thing we can say about Green's game vs. the Bears is - well, we can't really find anything bad to say. 19/176/2 rushing (a 9.3 ypc average with a long of 60 that went for a TD) coupled with 4/4/0 receiving is a really elite performance. The Bears were completely outmatched by Green, who made them look flat-footed on numerous occasions. For the season, Green is the 3rd best fantasy running back in the land, with 78/442/5 rushing and 17/109/0 receiving - Green is one of 3 NFL backs with 5 or more rushing scores this season (Priest Holmes and Jamal Lewis are the other 2).

Seattle isn't playing at all like the turnstile defense of 2002 - they rank 9th in the NFL while allowing only 90.3 rushing yards per game on average (and have surrendered only 1 rushing score this season). Before the bye week, they bested divisional-rival St. Louis 24-23, and held the Rams to 28/82/1 (a 2.9 ypc average) day rushing the football. They have only allowed 33 points in 3 games, by the way - that's a very solid defense in Seattle.

Seattle is coming off a bye week, with DT Norman Hand still nursing a sore toe (questionable) and the Packers are in good health - injuries aren't a major issue in this matchup, although backup RB's Najeh Davenport (hamstring) and Nicolas Luchey (thumb) are listed as questionable.

Two top units lock horns in this game - neither looks like it is in a position to dominate the other.

Kansas City's Priest Holmes vs. The Denver Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Priest Holmes had an off-day vs. the stout Raven defense, with a mere 22/90/0 rushing and 1/13/0 receiving. It is a mark of his high level of performance that a 100 - combined yards day is considered an "off-day". He is still the top fantasy back in the NFL, with 84/386/7 rushing and 17/184/0 receiving this season - last week was his first non-touchdown game of 2003. His line remains healthy and among the league's best at run-blocking.

Denver's defense has struggled in this phase a little, lately - they allowed 24/144/0 to the lowly Lions last week (6.0 ypc average), after stuffing the Raiders for 16/39/1 in week 3. Still, the Broncos are the 8th ranked run defense in the NFL right now, allowing an average of 88.8 yards per game, with only 1 rushing score allowed so far. LB's Al Wilson (7 solo tackles and 1 assist) and Ian Gold (8 solo tackles) led the defensive front and the team in the winning cause.

Denver is still waiting on starting LDT Daryl Gardener to get on the field due to his wrist injury. Kansas City lists Holmes as probable to play despite a sore hip.

The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium calls for a high of 68°F and a low of 48°F, with a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be a great day to play some football.

Two top units face off in this game, with neither looking dominant over the other.

Miami's Ricky Williams vs. The New York Giants' Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Miami has cruised in the rushing phase of the game lately (and are coming off a bye-week rest, to boot) - Williams had 125 yards rushing in week 2 vs. NYJ, and 153 vs. Buffalo in week 3. So far, the team is 11th in the NFL with 439 yards on 110 carries (for a healthy 4.0 ypc average). The Dolphins look like a well-oiled machine right now.

The Giants are also coming off a bye this week, but they went into the rest on a sour note in this phase of the game, allowing 22/124/0 for a 5.6 ypc average to the Redskins week 3. For the season they have played much better than that, ranking 9th in the league allowing 90.3 rushing yards per game, with only 1 rushing score surrendered.

Both teams come into the game after a rest week, but Miami's starting C Tim Ruddy had a knee scoped during the bye week (out), and T Mark Dixon is still trying to get back on the field with a bad ankle (questionable). DT Keith Hamilton's sore hammy is still bothering him (questionable).

The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 65°F and a low of 51°F, with a 30% chance of precipitation. If the rain comes down hard, both the field and the ball could become slick, slowing down play and increasing the likelihood of turnovers.

Miami's running back is among the league's elite, while the Giants' defense is in the top ten in this phase. Sounds like a pretty even matchup to us.

New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The Carolina Defense (Neutral Matchup)

McAllister's season has been fairly decent so far (he's the 6th ranked fantasy RB through 4 weeks, with 70/304/2 rushing and 19/99/0 receiving), but in the last two weeks he's up and down (11/8/0 rushing and 3/23 receiving two weeks ago vs. Ten, but 17/101/1 rushing and 4/25 receiving in the blow-out loss to Indy last week). New Orleans' offense as a whole has been in something of a doldrums recently, and it is limiting McAllister's scoring opportunities.

This week, McAllister and company face the defense that shut down Atlanta 23-3 last week, and beat Tampa Bay 12-9 two weeks ago. The Panthers have been very tough to score on (only 1 rushing TD allowed in 3 games), but have been fairly giving in the yardage department (93 rushing yards per game allowed on average, 12th in the NFL) - last week, Atlanta piled up 144 yards rushing. RDE Mike Rucker was very disruptive against the Falcons last week, with 5 solo tackles and 2 sacks to his credit (the top DL in IDP scoring last week).

Carolina is expecting their starting MLB Dan Morgan back in the lineup (hamstring injury), but backup Mike Caldwell may not be able to go (knee- questionable). New Orleans' line is in trouble, with starting LT Wayne Gandy nursing a pulled hamstring (doubtful), and starting RG LeCharles Bentley hobbled by a knee injury (not listed). If both the OL can't play, the injury quotient favors the Panthers.

The Panthers play very solid rush defense, and are tough to score on in the red-zone. McAllister has a good shot at a nice day, yardage-wise, but may find pay-dirt hard to find. We'll call it a neutral matchup - if Gandy and/or Bentley is out, things become tougher for the Saints.

Philadelphia's Duce Staley / Correll Buckhalter / Brian Westbrook vs. The Washington Defense (Neutral Matchup)

The Eagles found their legs last week as a team, putting up 34/177/2 against the Buffalo Bills. Staley was mostly a decoy/blocker in the running game (2/4/0 with 3/16/0 receiving), while Buckhalter carried in short-yardage situations, and first and second down (11/25/1). Westbrook was the change-of-pace, big-play man (11/96/1 TD, with a long of 62 that went for the game-icing TD). It's a three-headed monster, but it helped the Eagles notch a mark in the W column.

Washington's defense is pretty mediocre in this phase of the game, ranking 14th in the NFL after 4 weeks, averaging 97.8 rushing yards per game while surrendering 5 rushing TD's. Last week, the Patriots' RBBC cracked 100 yards rushing vs. the 'Skins - 30/106/0 - the Redskins stuffed the Patriots early on in the game, but gave up ground later on as they concentrated on stopping Brady and the passing game. Scat back Kevin Faulk was ineffective before leaving with an injury (10/12/0), while bruiser Antowain Smith had better luck (14/56/0) later in the game. MLB Jeremiah Trotter led the defense with 7 solo tackles and 1 assist.

Washington and Philadelphia enjoy good health on these units right now - injuries aren't a factor in the matchup. Philly's C Hank Fraley has a tweaked foot (probable), while Washington's DE Renaldo Wynn has a sore ankle (probable).

The forecast for Lincoln Financial Field calls for a high of 68°F and a low of 51°F, with a 30% chance of precipitation. If the rain comes down hard, slick footballs would make for ball-handling issues during the game. How the new grass field (no more seams!) will behave in foul weather is an unknown at this point.

Two not-so-great units match up in this division rivalry - neither looks dominant over the other at this point.

Pittsburgh's Amos Zereoue vs. The Cleveland Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Amos Zereoue had a good game last week, ranking as the 7th best fantasy back in the land by rushing 18 times for 51 yards and a score, while adding 6/48/0 through the air. His strong performance kept Jerome Bettis on the sidelines, 3/6/0, and chased away the RBBC specter, for a week at least. This year, the Steelers rank as the 20th rushing attack in the NFL, with 113 rushes for 355 yards (a 3.1 ypc average), so there is clearly a problem with the run-blocking up front - a 3.1 ypc average is not going to get the job done in the NFL very often.

Cleveland's rush defense is one of the softest in the NFL, giving up 141.3 yards per game on average (27th in the NFL), while surrendering only 2 scores so far. Last week, they contained the Dillon-less Bengals to 29/80/0 - but they were mostly playing against 3rd-stringer Rudi Johnson. Second-year MLB Andra Davis led the defense with 6 solo tackles and 1 assist.

Both teams are enjoying relatively good health currently, with Pittsburgh's starting T Marvel Smith questionable due to a sore shoulder, while T Todd Fordham is probable despite his sore knee. Cleveland is good to go.

The forecast for Heinz Field calls for a high of 60°F and a low of 48°F, with a 30% chance of precipitation. If the rain comes down hard, slick footballs would make for ball-handling issues during the game, and the field could get tricky to make cuts on.

Two anemic units battle it out in a divisional contest - neither looks measurably better than the other before the fact.

Washington's Trung Canidate / Ladell Betts / Rock Cartwright vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Washington rushed the ball more times (29) than it passed the ball (22) last week. No, that is not a mis-print. What's more, they won the game. Trung Canidate averaged 5.6 yards per carry (12/67/0), but stood on the sidelines while Ladell Betts (11/35/1) and Rock Cartwright (1/3/1) got the glory carrying the ball into the end-zone. It's enough to make Canidate owners cry foul, but don't look for coach Spurrier to change a winning formula anytime soon. We're stuck with an Oakland-style RBBC in Washington this season. As a team, the Redskins rate as the 7th best rushing attack in the NFL, with 525 yards on 116 carries for a robust 4.5 ypc average.

Philadelphia woke up from their early-season nightmare and remembered how to play football last week. They drilled the Bills 23-13 and it wasn't that close - Buffalo's depleted RB corps managed 12/21/1 on the day (Bledsoe plunged in the TD from the 1). Ouch. For the year, Philadelphia is the top ranked rush defense in the league, allowing only 57.7 rushing yards per game and they have surrendered only 1 rushing TD. Of course, part of the reason that the numbers are so good in this phase is that the injury-riddled secondary was porous as could be in games 1 and 2.

Philadelphia is still waiting on DL's Jerome McDougle (ankle - doubtful) and Brandon Whiting (hamstring - probable) to bolster their defensive front, and reserve LB Keith Adams suffered a concussion last week (doubtful). DT Corey Simon has sore ribs (probable). Washington's unit is in decent health, listing starting G Dave Fiore (knee) as questionable.

Washington is making strides in this phase of the game, and enjoying strong production. Philly is still injury riddled, but playing tough - we call it a toss up.

Detroit's Shawn Bryson / Olandis Gary vs. The San Francisco Defense (Tough Matchup)

At the beginning of the season, after James Stewart went down, it looked like the Detroit rushing game was moribund. However, things are looking up for the Lions in this phase of the game, after their committee of Bryson and Gary helped put together a respectable day (24/144/0) in Detroit's near miss vs. the mighty Broncos. Bryson looks like he is emerging as the every-down back (13/73/0), while Gary is taking over in spot duty and to spell Bryson. Bryson made most of his runs up the gut, tending to barely make it to the line of scrimmage when he bounced the ball outside.

San Francisco, meanwhile, was unable to stop the Vikings last week - they were trampled for 30/102/1 in the rushing phase, and watched Randy Moss haul in 3 of the 4 passing TD's that Gus Frerotte distributed in the course of a 35-7 drubbing. For the season, the 49ers average 74 rushing yards per game allowed, 5th in the NFL, and have given up only 2 rushing scores so far - the Vikings' success looks more like an aberration than a trend, at this point. LOLB Julian Peterson led the team with 2 solo tackles and 4 assists.

San Francisco's backup LB Saleem Rasheed (bruised thigh) and starting LDE John Engelberger (bruised knee) are both probable to play on Sunday. LB Derek Smith is also probable to play through a sore ankle and elbow. Detroit's unit is good to go.

The forecast for 3COM Park calls for a high of 66°F and a low of 55°F, with a 20% chance of precipitation. It should be a great day for some football.

The 49ers are usually stout in this phase, but stumbled somewhat last week. The Lions are improving, but the 49ers should make for a tough challenge.

New England's Kevin Faulk/Antowain Smith vs. The Tennessee Defense (Tough Matchup)

Kevin Faulk had to leave last week's game with what has been described as a "leg injury" - and he was also apparently already nursing a sore arm/hand before he got knocked out of the game. As Faulk has been the starting (and more-or-less featured) back over the past couple of weeks, pay attention to his status (currently questionable) as the game gets closer if you have either Faulk or Antowain Smith on your squad. So far this season, the Patriots' attack is 12th in the NFL with 117 rushes for 420 yards (a less-than-ideal 3.6 ypc average) - they aren't spectacular as a unit, but they are making some good things happen now and then. Last week, Faulk played pretty poorly before exiting the game (10/12/0 rushing with 1/7/0 receiving), while Smith had better luck (14/56/0 and 1/16/0 respectively).

Tennessee, meanwhile, was busy squelching the Steelers' backs - Amos Zereoue managed 18/51/1 rushing (2.8 ypc average) with 6/48/0 receiving while Jerome Bettis eked out 3/6/0 in limited action. For the season, the Titans rank 3rd in the NFL with 63.3 rushing yards per game allowed on average, and only 2 rushing TD's surrendered in 2003. The big guys up front were in the Steeler's backfield all afternoon (including forcing a safety from Maddox), and Pittsburgh only attempted 5 rushes in the second half of the game. ROLB Keith Bulluck was the top defender, with 8 tackles and 4 assists on the day.

Besides Faulk's injury problems, starting FB Fred McCrary missed last week due to his injured knee (doubtful), as did starting C Damien Woody (knee - questionable) and starting RT Adrian Klemm (ankle - doubtful). Tennessee is to be without starting LOLB Peter Sirmon (fractures in his lower back - out 2-4 weeks), while RDT Albert Haynesworth missed the game due to his injured left elbow. RDE Jevon Kearse got nicked up (shoulder and ankle) in the game, but played through the pain. As you can see, both teams have some voids due to injury at this point.

Gillette Stadium expects a high of 64°F with a low of 46°F on Sunday, with a 30% chance of precipitation. If the rains come, ball-handling will be crucial - it's easier to fumble a slick ball.

New England has a mediocre rushing attack with part of the starting line and it's top back limited by injury. Tennessee has a top-flight rush defense, with part of their defensive front limited by injury. Advantage, Tennessee.

New York Giants' Tiki Barber vs. The Miami Defense (Tough Matchup)

Tiki Barber is having a fine season, with 67 rushes for 313 yards (4.6 ypc average) and 8 receptions for 44 yards - but, he has yet to hit pay dirt, which is holding down his fantasy value, at least so far. Coming off a week of rest, Barber and his offensive line should be ready to go - good news, as the line was pretty banged up heading into the bye, and was at one point playing 5 very inexperienced players in the trenches. The team hopes that '99 first round pick LT Luke Petitgout can be ready to go this week (back spasms).

Miami's defense really came alive against the Bills, knocking Travis Henry out of the game and limiting his replacement, Joe Burns, to 6/22/0 on the day. For the season, the Dolphins rank 2nd in the NFL with 63 rushing yards per game allowed, on average, and they have yet to surrender a rushing TD. Zach Thomas led the way two weeks ago with 4 solo tackles and 6 assists.

Both teams come into the game after a rest week, so injuries aren't a big concern.

Barber is one of the better running backs in the NFL, and Miami plays elite-level rushing defense. Home-field advantage helps Barber out, but he'll still find running room tough to come by on Sunday.

Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Tough Matchup)

Tampa Bay announced during their bye week that Michael Pittman was going to be the featured back moving forward into the season - the RBBC is supposedly dead in Tampa. Pittman led the team with 82 rushing yards and 82 receiving yards week 3 vs. the injury-riddled Falcons. However, Mike Alstott remains in the mix as the starting FB, and he scored two times in the last game the team played (8/44/2 with a long of 29) - we'll believe this RBBC is dead when we see Pittman carry the ball 25+ times consistently (and at the goal-line). Anyway, for the season, the Bucs are the 28th ranked rushing attack in the NFL, with 90/282 on the ground - a 3.1 ypc average. That's usually not going to get you too far in the NFL (unless you have a superlative defense like Tampa Bay does).

Indianapolis is playing tough defense in this phase, allowing 114.5 yards per game on average (22nd in the NFL) but only 1 rushing TD so far in 2003 - tied for second in the NFL. Last week, they coughed up 17/101/1 to Deuce McAllister, and 25/155/1 to the Saints as a team (a terrible 6.2 yards per carry), but the Colts were so far up to begin the 4th quarter (48-13) that they called off the dogs early in this one, content to let New Orleans run out the clock.

Indianapolis lists LB Jim Nelson (head) as questionable; DE Raheen Brock (ankle); starting DE Dwight Freeney (ankle/abdomen) and starting LB David Thornton (ankle) as probable coming into the game. Tampa is coming off a bye-week and is good to go in this phase.

The weather for Raymond James Stadium is expected to be warm, a high of 81°F and a low of 70°F on Monday, with a 30% chance of rain. If rain comes down hard, ball-handling could become an issue in this phase of the game.

Tampa's rushing attack is near the bottom of the NFL, and the Colts play fairly stout rush defense, at least in the red-zone. Advantage, Indianapolis.

Tennessee's Eddie George vs. The New England Defense (Tough Matchup)

Tennessee is 30th in the NFL this season with 104 rushes for 274 yards (~2.6 ypc average). That is the picture of an anemic rushing attack. Eddie George returned to his less-than-impressive production this week, 11/21/0 rushing (an abysmal 1.9 ypc average) and 1/-3/0 receiving. Robert Holcombe fared little better in his chances, 3/11/0 and 1/3/0. Somehow, Steve McNair found a way to be almost perfect on the day, even without a credible rushing attack - but the Titans' running game is in serious trouble, folks. No surge from the OL, no explosion from the running backs - saying that this unit is sluggish and ineffective would be understating the situation, frankly.

New England's rushing defense wasn't very impressive last week, basically serving as turnstiles for Trung Canidate (12/67/0 - a 5.6 ypc average) while he was in the game. Betts and Cartwright were less effective yardage-wise, but each punched in a score when the team was in the red-zone. For the season, New England ranks as the 13th run defense, allowing 97 rushing yards per game, but they have surrendered 5 rushing scores - among the highest in the NFL (Atlanta is the worst with 6 so far, but New England is tied with 5 other teams at 5 rushing scores allowed). MLB Tedy Bruschi led the team with 6 solo tackles and 1 assist last week.

Part of New England's problem is injuries - starting WLB Mike Vrabel has an arm injury keeping him out (doubtful), and starting MLB Ted Johnson (broken foot) and starting LDT Ted Washington (broken leg) are out indefinitely. LB Willie McGinest is questionable due to a neck injury. Tennessee's line is back to full strength now that RG Benji Olson is back in action.

Gillette Stadium expects a high of 64°F with a low of 46°F on Sunday, with a 30% chance of precipitation. If the rains come, ball-handling will be crucial - it's easier to fumble a slick ball.

Tennessee's rushing attack is among the leagues worst, while New England's rushing defense is pretty soft. However, Tennessee looks like they are struggling even worse than New England right now, and the game is at New England's home field, so we'll call it a tough matchup for the visitors.

Arizona's Emmitt Smith vs. The Dallas Defense (Bad Matchup)

It feels weird to write "Arizona's Emmitt Smith vs. The Dallas Defense" - however, given his production this season, you have to say that Dallas looks fairly wise for allowing Smith to move on. Smith ranks 28th among fantasy backs in 2003, with 59/193/1 rushing (3.2 ypc average) and 4/25/0 receiving so far - running behind a line that is supposedly one of the better units in pro football. Arizona ranks 27th in the NFL rushing the ball - 89 carries for 305 yards (3.4 ypc average) is what they have managed to date. Last week, Smith stumbled to a 12/25/1 performance (it took him 4 tries to get into the end-zone from the 2-yard line). There just doesn't seem to be much gas left in the tank.

Dallas, on the other hand, frustrated the Jets' attempt to renew their rushing attack, holding Curtis Martin and company to 26/66/0 (a 2.5 ypc average). The Cowboys are currently 4th in the NFL, allowing only 72.3 rushing yards per game on average, and have allowed only a single rushing score all season. MLB Dat Nguyen was the sparkplug of the Dallas defense last week with 7 solo tackles and 3 assists on the day.

Arizona's starting RG Leonard Davis is having trouble rehabbing his foot injury (questionable), and missed last week's game. Dallas' defensive front is ready to go.

This looks like a steep hill for Smith to climb, even given his emotional boost at playing his old team.

Atlanta's T.J. Duckett / Warrick Dunn vs. The Minnesota Defense (Bad Matchup)

T.J. Duckett put up some nice yardage numbers last week (14/100/0 for a 7+ ypc average - with a long of 41 yards), while Warrick Dunn saw only limited action (4/20/0 and 1/3/0). It was all for naught, however, as neither back got into the end-zone and the team lost to Carolina 23-3. It appears that whatever mix of backs the team throws at the opposition from week to week, scoring opportunities will be few and far between until the passing game comes back to life.

Minnesota was busy crushing the 49ers last week, 35-7, and they did so with some bend-but-don't-break defense (the team allowed 372 total yards, 145 of them on the ground) - they are pretty tough to score on. In the rushing phase so far this season, the Vikings average 91 yards per game allowed, with 3 rushing scores surrendered (11th in the NFL). Starting WLB Chris Claiborne was an absolute IDP point bonanza with 11 solo tackles (4th best fantasy LB in week 4).

Atlanta's OL is in pretty good shape, with backup C Roberto Garza nursing a sore left ankle (probable) and Kynan Forney also gimpy on a sore ankle (probable). Minnesota's defensive front is nursing a couple of backup players - DL Billy Lyon has an injured leg (questionable), and backup LB Raonall Smith (questionable) tweaked his right hamstring during the game. Starting LB Greg Biekert is probable to play despite sore ribs. Injuries aren't much of a direct factor in this matchup - but Atlanta's WR cupboard is almost bare, so Minnesota will likely key on the running game.

This game is being played in a dome, so weather is no factor.

Minnesota has been pretty tough against the run this season, but gave away a lot of ground last week to the 49ers. Atlanta's backs and coaching staff is trying to find some way to score points, but not having much luck. This looks like a very tough matchup for the Falcon's unit.

Cleveland's William Green vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Bad Matchup)

The Brown's OL is not getting the job done in either phase of the game. One of their QB's, Kelly Holcomb, is already out with a broken bone in one leg and a bad ankle on the other, while Tim Couch got pounded by Cincinnati last week - hurried 15 times, knocked down 11, sacked twice and intercepted once. The defensive penetration/pressure on the running backs is just as bad - William Green was 16/47/0 last week, and has managed only 69/243/0 rushing in 4 games (3.5 ypc average) - the team as a whole has 87/278 yards rushing (a 3.2 ypc average).

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has reclaimed their spot in the top 10 NFL rush defenses, ranking 6th so far this year while allowing only 86 yards per game on average - they have given up 4 rushing scores this year, though. Last week, they abused Eddie George and company (22/40/0 rushing as a team). RILB Kendrell Bell led the effort, with 6 solo tackles and 2 assists. There just wasn't anywhere for Tennessee's runners to go.

Cleveland and Pittsburgh's units both enjoy relative good health at this point in the season - Pittsburgh lists LB's Clint Kriewaldt (knee, questionable) and James Farrior (buttocks, probable) on the injury report.

The Browns are one of the leagues lamest attacks, while the Steelers sport a top rush defense that is coming on strong. The home team gets a huge edge in this matchup.

Indianapolis' Running Backs vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Bad Matchup)

Indianapolis rested Edgerrin James last week vs. New Orleans - and his backups did an admirable job, with 25/100 rushing and 2 receiving TD's amongst the three players - Ricky Williams, James Mungro and Dominic Rhodes. As of Wednesday, James is listed as questionable on the injury report. As a team in 2003, the Colts are doing a mediocre job of rushing the ball, with 107 carries for 367 yards, a 3.4 ypc average.

Of course, trying to get your rushing game to work in Raymond James Stadium is a daunting task. The Bucs have allowed an average of 107 rushing yards per game this season (17th in the league), but are tied for second with only 1 rushing score surrendered during that time. The Bucs are also coming off a bye week, rested and ready to play.

LB Shelton Quarles is questionable to play due to his injured arm/elbow. Indianapolis also lists starting RT Ryan Diem (ankle) as out, with RB Dominic Rhodes (knee), starting C Jeff Saturday (back) and starting G Steve Sciullo (foot) all probable to play.

Tampa Bay sports a strong run defense, while the Colts rank as a mediocre running team at this point in the season. Advantage, Tampa Bay.