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Rushing Matchups - Week 7

Hi Folks,

Here's our look at the Rushing Matchups for this week.

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Priest Holmes is playing the toughest rush defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter. In the same way, if the worst RB on your roster has a "great" matchup, that doesn't necessarily mean you start him, it just means he'll likely fare better this week than he normally would.

Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.

Let's jump to it.

Joe



Bye Weeks:

Indianapolis: Edgerrin James/Ricky Williams/James Mungro are on bye.
Arizona: Marcel Shipp is on bye.
Pittsburgh: Amos Zereoue/Jerome Bettis are on bye.
Jacksonville: Fred Taylor/Chris Fuamatu Ma'afala are on bye.

Kansas City's Priest Holmes vs. The Oakland Defense (Great Matchup)

Priest Holmes must be licking his chops in anticipation of this game. Last week, Oakland made William Green look like the second coming of Mike Pruitt, surrendering 32/171/1 to the Browns, and two weeks ago, the Bears trampled the Raiders for 35/200/1. What will Holmes, running behind his fine line, be able to do? Good things, man - start him if you've got him (like we needed to tell you that). Last week, Holmes finally got back into the end-zone after 2 dry weeks (22/81/1 with 6/59/0 receiving) - that trend should continue this week.

The Raider's struggles, detailed above, have not suddenly occurred - they've been soft all season, and are dead last in rush defense this year with an average of 164.7 rushing yards allowed per game (with 7 scores surrendered). They just aren't getting the job done.

Oakland's starting SLB Bill Romanowski is sitting at home due to post-concussion complications, and starting DT John Parrella has a groin injury (doubtful), while backup DL Sam Williams is hobbled by an injured knee (questionable). DT Dana Stubblefield has a sore ankle (questionable) and LB Eric Johnson a bruised chest (probable). Kansas City's OL is healthy, although Holmes has various aches and pains at this point in the season.

The forecast for Network Associate Stadium calls for a high of 70F and a low of 53F, with a 10% chance for rain - it should be fine football weather Monday Night if the forecast holds up.

Holmes should have a lot of fun with the Raiders Monday night. If we had a higher ranking than "Great Matchup", we'd use it to describe this one.



New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The Atlanta Defense (Great Matchup)

Deuce McAllister is playing well. He's posted 69/341/1 rushing and 10/98/0 receiving over the last 3 weeks - anytime you gain 439 combined yards in 3 games, you're doing something right. If he could only find the red-zone more often, McAllister would be a top-5 back (but 7th among all fantasy backs for the last 3 weeks isn't too shabby, anyway). Last week he put up 29/116/0 and 2/14/0 in the win over Chicago. The Saints as a team are the 10th best attack in the NFL, with 156/669 this season (a 4.3 ypc average).

Atlanta's defense is reeling in this phase of the game, ranking 29th among all rush defenses allowing 147.3 yards per game on average, and rock bottom in the league with 9 rushing scores surrendered (2 worse than Oakland and New England). Mark Bulger snuck one in on them last week (39/119/1 for the Rams as a team), and Moe Williams waltzed in for 2 TDs (Onterrio Smith punched in a 2pt conversion, too) on Atlanta two weeks ago (38/166/2 for the Vikings as a team). Things are bad enough that the team may make a mid-season switch to the 4-3 from Wade Phillips' usual 3-4 defensive front.

Injuries continue to mount for the Falcons, who recently lost LB Will Overstreet to the IR, and starting LB Sam Rogers is have a knee scoped this week and may not be available for the rest of the season. DE Travis Hall has a shin injury (questionable). New Orleans is in good shape in this phase of the game, with only G Montrae Holland (foot - questionable) on the injury report.

This game is being played in a dome, so weather is not an issue.

Atlanta can't stop anybody from executing their offense at will. Advantage, New Orleans.



Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The Chicago Defense (Great Matchup)

Shaun Alexander is running strong for Seattle, with 42/179/1 rushing and 6/59/0 receiving in his two most recent games. He was a key to defeating San Francisco last week (22/77/0 rushing and 3/46/0 receiving), and ran strong all afternoon. For the season, the Seahawks have the 13th ranked rushing attack in the NFL, 142/652 for a strong 4.6 ypc average. The OL has played very well in this phase all year long.

The Bears, meanwhile, give away real-estate like an 1870's land agent in 2003, allowing a staggering 160.8 rushing yards per game on average, and they have coughed up 6 rushing TDs so far in 2003. Oakland rushed for 27/123/1 two weeks ago against them, and last week the Saints racked up 34/130/0 - that's a little better than the Bears' season average would indicate, but its still not very stout rush D.

Starting WLB Warrick Holdman missed last week with an ankle injury (doubtful), and starting LDT Keith Traylor is sidelined due to knee surgery. LB Lance Briggs has a sore hip (probable).Seattle's backup OT Floyd Womack remains sidelined due to his injured toe. RB Shaun Alexander's ankle is sore (questionable), as is FB Mack Strong's knee (probable).

The forecast for Seahawk's Stadium calls for a high of 65F and a low of 53F, with a 50% chance for rain - the FieldTurf and the football could get slick and tricky if the rains come down hard.

Bottom line is that Alexander and company should enjoy a fine day running the ball against the Bears.



Baltimore's Jamal Lewis vs. The Cincinnati Defense (Good Matchup)

Jamal Lewis is proving just how elite an NFL back he is this year. There is no credible passing game to help him out (Kyle Boller averages less than 100 yards per game), and yet Baltimore has rushed for more yardage than any other team in the league (170/998 with a stellar 5.9 ypc average). Last week, Lewis ran for 131 yards on 21 carries against the Cardinals. In the past 2 games he has 47/246/1 rushing and 4/44/0 receiving. There is no back more featured in his team's attack in 2003 than Jamal Lewis.

Cincinnati's defense is pretty soft this season, allowing an average of 121 rushing yards per game and 5 TDs so far in 2003. Lately, though, they've stiffened up the front - William Green and the Browns managed only 22/69/0 in week 4, and Travis Henry managed 25/85/1 in week 5 - much better play than their season average suggests.

Cincinnati is coming off a bye week, and lists only backup LB Riall Johnson (calf) as questionable. Baltimore's starting LG Edwin Mulitalo hurt his right ankle last week (questionable), G-C Casey Rabach has a sore hip (questionable), while T Orlando Brown (shoulder) and RB Jamal Lewis (shoulder) are both probable to play.

The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 64F and a low of 46F, with a 10% chance for rain - a nice, cool day for a football game.

Lewis and company are at the top of their game - while Cincinnati has improved in recent games, they are still in the middle of the NFL pack in this phase. Advantage, Baltimore.



Carolina's Stephen Davis/DeShaun Foster vs. The Tennessee Defense (Good Matchup)

Carolina had 40 carries in their game against New Orleans (for 185 yards and 1 score) and 41 carries (for 189 yards and 1 score) in their game vs. Indianapolis last week. While DeShaun Foster actually out-gained Stephen Davis last week, it was due to a bruised forearm that Davis suffered (the trainers had to hide his helmet to keep him from going back in the game). There is a lot of talk this week about how the 2 backs are going to split time - but guess what, when a team runs the ball ~40 times per game, it's not a bad thing fantasy-wise if one guy gets 25-30 and the other players touch the ball 10-15 times. Davis is still the featured back in Carolina, and Foster is the role player/back-up. We don't see that changing in the near future, barring injury. Reports indicate that Davis' bruised arm isn't expected to cost him any playing time. He's been able to handle close to 30 carries a game with no problem, until last week's forearm bruise.

Tennessee started the season fairly strongly in this phase of the game, allowing an average of only 84.2 rushing yards per game so far, but they have allowed 5 rushing scores in 2003. Houston managed 16/91/0 against the Titans last week, and New England put up 27/161/3 two weeks ago - both teams averaged almost 6 yards a carry against the Titans. As you can see, Tennessee's rush defense hasn't been stout lately. RILB Jamie Sharper led the team last week with 7 solo tackles, 3 assists and 1 sack.

Tennessee is still waiting on LOLB Peter Sirmon to return from a back injury (questionable), while Carolina looks good in this phase (setting aside Davis' bruised forearm - probable).

The forecast for Ericsson Stadium calls for a high of 64F and a low of 44F, with a 10% chance for rain - perfect football weather.

Carolina has one of the strongest rushing attacks in the NFL (3rd in the league this season in rushing yardage), while Tennessee has been fairly vulnerable in this stage lately. Advantage, Carolina.



Chicago's Anthony Thomas / Adrian Peterson vs. The Seattle Defense (Good Matchup)

Unfortunately, Anthony Thomas showed up on the injury report as doubtful with a foot injury - if he has to sit, Adrian Peterson will start. We'll keep an eye on this for you all week.

The A-Train has overcome his sophomore slump, and is making good gains again in his third NFL season - over the last 3 weeks, he has 56/329/1 rushing and 2/4/0 receiving, despite the Bear's struggles in the W column. Kordell Stewart was replaced this week in the lineup with Chris "Crystal Chandelier" Chandler, which should no doubt serve to increase the running back's carries and increase his chances to score in the red-zone, too.

Seattle, meanwhile, has been struggling in this phase lately - they got totally shellacked by Ahman Green and company two weeks ago (35/159/3), and coughed up 29/111/2 to Garrison Hearst and company last week. This year, the Seahawks are the league's 17th ranked rush defense, allowing an average of 106.2 rushing yards per game, with 6 rushing scores allowed -but they haven't been playing up to that standard lately. Anthony Simmons was the 6th best IDP linebacker last week, with 9 solo tackles, 1 assist and 1 sack vs. San Francisco.

Seattle's backup LB Orlando Huff has been struggling with a high ankle sprain - he's to play this week. LB Tracy White (foot - doubtful), LB Anthony Simmons (chest - questionable) and LB Isaiah Kacyvenski (ankle - probable) all show up on the injury report. Anthony Thomas has a foot injury that flared up (he's doubtful on the initial injury report), so watch his status as the game approaches. T Mike Gandy has a sore knee (probable).

The forecast for Seahawk's Stadium calls for a high of 65F and a low of 53F, with a 50% chance for rain - the field and the football could get slick and tricky if the rains come down hard.

It appears that Anthony Thomas/Adrian Peterson has a good shot at a productive game vs. the middle of the road Seahawks' defense.



Cleveland's William Green vs. The San Diego Defense (Good Matchup)

William Green is finally coming to life, with 26/145/1 rushing and 1/-2-0 receiving last week vs. Oakland and 75/307/1 with 5/20/0 over the last three weeks. Oakland does deploy the league's worst run defense, but it is good to see Green trampling a team that he should be able to trample, none-the-less.

Excellent news for Green owners arrives in Cleveland in the form of the San Diego rush defense, which is just barely better than Oakland - they allow 144.6 rushing yards per game on average, and have coughed up 6 scores so far in 2003. The last two teams to face San Diego, Jacksonville and Oakland, put up 37/123/1 and 24/120/1 in their games against the Chargers. They just can't stop the run very well.

Bad news for Green came on Tuesday when word went out that starting C Jeff Faine and starting LG Shaun O'Hara will miss the game vs. San Diego due to knee injuries suffered in the win over Oakland. Team officials have so far declined to comment on the severity of the injuries (both are listed as doubtful), while T Barry Stokes (ankle) is probable to play. DE Adrian Dingle (knee) and LB Carlos Polk (knee) are questionable for the Chargers.

The forecast for Cleveland Browns' Stadium calls for a high of 57F and a low of 42F, with a 10% chance for rain - a nice, cool day for a football game.

Green is finally hitting his stride, but another shuffle of the OL will impede his momentum. However, San Diego is soft enough that Green should still get his chances for a productive day, if the OL can compensate for the loss of Faine and O'Hara in practice this week.



Dallas' Troy Hambrick / Aveion Cason vs. The Detroit Defense (Good Matchup)

Dallas has a top-ten rushing attack as a team, with 173/674 (a 3.9 ypc average) this season so far. Troy Hambrick has been a respectable #2 fantasy back at points during the last 3 weeks, with 65/232/2 rushing and 4/28/0 receiving to his credit, although he had a hard time gaining yards last week vs. Philly (18/46/1 rushing and 2/14/0 receiving). Aveion Cason added 7/31/0 rushing and 1/-1/0 receiving on the day.

Detroit, on the other hand, has a poor rushing D that has allowed an average of 128.6 rushing yards per game and 4 rushing scores so far in 2003. The Portis-less Broncos only managed 23/79/0 against them week 4, but San Francisco galloped for 39/142/1 in week 5 - the Lions are just as inept right now as their average indicates they should be.

Both units come into the game relatively healthy.

This game is being played in a dome, so weather isn't an issue.

Detroit is very generous, and the Cowboys know how to pound the pigskin. Advantage, Dallas.



Denver's Clinton Portis vs. The Minnesota Defense (Good Matchup)

Clinton Portis had an off-week last week, with 15/47/0 rushing and 5/26/0 receiving in the game vs. Pittsburgh. Over his past two games, Portis has put up 38/188/1 with 10 receptions for 105 yards, and he is the 8th ranked fantasy back in 2003 (despite missing parts of games due to his early-season chest injury) - we think the bad day vs. Pittsburgh was an aberration, rather than the rule . As a team, the Broncos are 2nd in the league with 184/903 (a 4.9 ypc average) - the OL is definitely doing its' job so far in 2003.

Minnesota plays pretty stout run defense in 2003, allowing an average of 93.6 yards per game (10th in the NFL) and has surrendered only 4 scores all year in this phase. However, in recent games they've been more vulnerable, surrendering 25/145/0 to the 49ers and 17/104/1 to the Falcons in recent weeks. That's right at 6 yards per carry allowed, on average - not too good, folks.

Minnesota comes into this one off a bye week, so they are in good health - DT Billy Lyon is questionable due to his leg injury, and LB's Chris Claiborne (shoulder) and E.J. Henderson (shoulder) are probable. Denver's unit also enjoys relatively good health, with C Tom Nalen (ankle) and T Ephraim Salaam (knee) probable to play.

This game is being played in the Metrodome, so weather won't be a factor.

Portis and the Broncos usually run the ball well, while Minnesota's defense has slipped a couple of notches in recent games. This one looks like a good matchup for Portis, even in the hostile environs of the Metrodome.



Houston's Domanick Davis / Stacey Mack vs. The New York Jets Defense (Good Matchup)

It looks like Houston's Domanick Davis is shoving Stacey Mack to the bench, and is poised to become the Texans' featured back. In comments this week, head coach Dom Capers indicated that roles in the Texans' backfield will be decided on the basis of production - something that Davis has been doing lately, and Mack hasn't. In the team's last two games, Davis has 23 rushes for 112 yards, with 11 receptions for 108 yards. Mack has 20 carries for 52 yards and 1 TD, with 1 catch for 6 yards. This season, Davis has been thrown to 23 times for 14/150/0, while Mack has seen 13 chances yielding 10/61/0. Most tellingly, Mack had 4 carries for 13 yards and 1 reception for 6 yards last week, while Davis went 7/59/0 rushing with 7/70/0 receiving on the day. Even Tony Hollings had more carries than Mack last week (5/19/0).

The Jets are very weak in this phase, ranking 30th in the NFL allowing 149.8 rushing yards per game and 4 rushing scores so far in 2003. Dallas slapped them around for 41/202/1 in week 4 - but the Bills were held to 19/53/0 in the game last week. Of course, the Bills are the 31st ranked rushing attack in the NFL this season, so they are struggling in their own right - don't be too impressed by the Jets' success against Henry and company last week. Jason Ferguson was 4th among all IDP DL last week, with 6 solo tackles, 2 sacks, and a forced fumble.

Houston is having trouble at the LG spot right now - Milford Brown couldn't play last week due to his injured knee, and Todd Washington injured his right shoulder in the game (he was in to replace Brown). C Steve McKinney has a sore shoulder too - all three are probable to play this week. The Jets' reserve LB Victor Hobson injured his ribs last week, but is considered probable to play Sunday.

The forecast for Reliant Stadium calls for a high of 80F and a low of 59F, with a 10% chance for rain - sounds like a great day to play football.

Davis has a good shot to cement his hold on the top job this week - he should enjoy a productive day against the flaccid Jets' defensive front.



Minnesota's Moe Williams / Onterrio Smith vs. The Denver Defense (Good Matchup)

Onterrio Smith didn't get the 100 yards his coach predicted before the week 5 game, but he is becoming a bigger part of the Minnesota attack in recent weeks (and he caught a 2-pt. conversion in the team's most recent game). The work was basically split down the middle between the two backs in week 5, with Williams getting 11/71/2 and 2/15 (rushing and receiving, respectively), while Smith rushed 13 times for 63 yards and caught 2/23/0. In aggregate, an awesome game - fantasy-wise, Williams was more valuable week 5 due to his TDs. Expect to see more sharing of the load this week - as a team, the Vikings sport the league's 7th ranked rushing attack, with 165/751 (a 4.6 ypc average).

Denver is hard to rush on, ranking 11th in the NFL allowing only 95.5 yards per game on average, and is tied for the league-lead with only 2 scores allowed. However, they suffered a major blow to their defensive scheme (built around their stellar core of LB's), when Ian Gold blew out his right knee (torn ACL). Donnie Spragan, a player who has bounced around to 4 teams in the NFL during his 2 years in the league (and who was out of football for a while between '99 and '03, partially due to his own torn ACL suffered in 99 as a undrafted free-agent signee with the Saints), is Gold's replacement. Needless to say, it remains to be seen how well Spragan will fill the void - he's been mainly a special-teams player for the Broncos up to this point. If you are an Al Wilson owner in an IDP league, note that the loss of Gold may pump up Wilson's stats somewhat.

Minnesota comes into the game healthy, while the Broncos also list DT Daryl Gardener (wrist) and LB Keith Burns (knee) as probable to play.

This game is being played in the Metrodome, so weather won't be a factor.

Minnesota is very proficient at running the ball, and the Bronco's defensive scheme and personnel will be in adjustment this week after the loss of Gold. The advantage lies with the home-team in this game.



Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook / Duce Staley / Correll Buckhalter vs. The New York Giants' Defense (Good Matchup)

Brian Westbrook missed the second half of last week's game with a hip pointer (after a nice first-half effort with 8/37/1 rushing), while Duce Staley (7/28/0 rushing with 3/66/1 receiving) and Correll Buckhalter (11/52/1 rushing and 1/2/0 receiving) made a nice 1-2 punch with Westbrook sidelined in the second half. All the backs averaged 4.0 per carry or better, a vast improvement over earlier weeks and an accomplishment against the usually-stout Dallas defensive front. Now, if the Eagles could only get their passing game going, the running game could start producing some quality fantasy numbers.

The New York Giants got clobbered 17-6 on a mucky field last week, and they were trampled by New England's attack for 31/129/1 in the rushing phase. 2 weeks ago, they were lit up for a 68 yard end-around TD by James McKnight and were crunched into submission by Ricky Williams (22/39/1) - as a team, the Dolphins put up 30/134/2 vs. the Giants. For the season, the Giants are right in the middle of the NFL pack, allowing 106.8 yards per game on the ground (16th) and have coughed up 4 rushing TDs so far. Their recent performances are not up to that standard, though, as detailed above. Michael Strahan was 5th in scoring among IDP defensive linemen last week, with 5 solo tackles and 2 sacks.

Philly is listing Westbrook as questionable with his hip pointer, while starting RG Jermane Mayberry is to play despite his elbow injury (probable). G Jon Welbourn (leg) and FB Jon Ritchie (hamstring) are probable to play. New York's defense is relatively healthy coming into the game.

The forecast calls for a high of 57F, with 43F for a low and a 50% chance for rain - sounds like another slippery, sloppy day is heading for Giants' stadium.

The Giants aren't playing well in this phase of the game, and the Eagles are finally finding some sort of running game for their bevy of backs. This looks like a good matchup for the Eagles.



St. Louis' Lamar Gordon vs. The Green Bay Defense (Good Matchup)

Lamar Gordon is stolidly grinding out the yards in recent weeks, with 40 rushes for 173 yards and 1 score in his last 2 games (1/8/0 receiving). He was 19/92/0 last week, averaging 4.8 yards per carry, with a long run of 20 yards. That's not a fantasy bonanza, but it will serve to score points in yardage leagues. As a team, the Rams rank near the bottom of the league in 2003, with 137 rushes for 462 yards, a 3.4 ypc average, so Gordon is making more happen in his chances than Marshall Faulk did with his shots.

Green Bay's defense is in the middle tier of NFL rush defenses this season, averaging 113.7 rushing yards allowed per game (19th), while giving up 5 rushing scores so far. Priest Holmes managed 22/81/1 vs. the Packers last week (3.7 ypc average), while the Seahawks slapped down 23/128/1 two weeks ago (5.6 ypc average) - the bottom line is that this unit is mediocre vs. the run. MLB Nick Barnett led the defensive front with 7 solo tackles and 4 assists last week.

Green Bay's DL is in trouble, having just lost starting LDE Joe Johnson for the season with a torn quadriceps muscle. Backup DL Aaron Kampman (ankle) and Chuckie Nwokorie (knee) haven't been able to play in recent games, so the DL is thin in Green Bay. St. Louis is in good shape in this phase of the game, although Gordon's wrist is still sore (probable) - and Faulk remains out.

The game is being played in the Edward Jones Dome, so weather isn't a factor.

Gordon gains ground effectively for the Rams, and the Packers are limping into this game with a wounded defensive front. Advantage flows to the home-team Rams in this matchup.



Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman vs. The San Francisco Defense (Good Matchup)

Michael Pittman had a decent game vs. the Redskins, racking up 17/62/0 rushing and 3/33/0 receiving during the course of the rout. In his last two games, he had put up 33/168/0 rushing and 7/68/0 receiving, so he is having success in his role as the team's featured back. Tampa Bay is the 21st ranked rushing attack in the NFL this season, with 148/532 (a 3.6 ypc average) - Pittman has been the best RB on the team by far in 2003.

San Francisco was trampled by Seattle last week, surrendering 34/147/1, and didn't look too strong vs. Detroit either (20/84/1). This year, the 49ers are allowing 87.8 rushing yards per game on average, and have surrendered 4 rushing scores so far - as the above numbers illustrate, the defensive front is definitely headed in the wrong direction right now.

Tampa Bay's starting RG Jason Whittle suffered a shoulder injury last week (questionable). San Francisco's defensive unit is in good health at this point in the season, with only DT Anthony Adams nursing a sore toe (probable).

The forecast for 3COM Park calls for a high of 69F and a low of 53F, with a 10% chance for rain - very good football weather.

Pittman and the Buccaneers are running the ball well lately, while the 49ers defense has been very vulnerable lately. Advantage, Tampa Bay.



Washington's Ladell Betts / Sultan McCullough / Rock Cartwright vs. The Buffalo Defense (Good Matchup)

Trung Canidate is wearing a protective boot around his sprained ankle, and acknowledged on Tuesday that he probably will sit out the Buffalo game to allow his ankle time to heal properly (the Washington bye week is week 8, so skipping this game would give him ~2 1/2 weeks to heal up). Ladell Betts has a sprained ankle, but will try to play through it this week - coach Spurrier has indicated that rookie RB Sultan McCullough (out of USC) might get the first action of his NFL career in rotation with Betts and FB Rock Cartwright. Only Spurrier knows how many carries they may end up splitting among themselves as he tries to protect Patrick Ramsey more in the passing game - but it's a good bet the RB's will be asked to stay in and block pass rushers more this week, limiting their role in the aerial phase of the game.

Buffalo staggers into this game the 23rd ranked rush D in the league, allowing an average of 121.2 yards per game and 5 rushing scores so far in 2003. Last week, the lowly Jets (sporting the worst rushing attack in the NFL this season) slapped down 33/118/0 against the Bills, and the week before that 3rd-stringer Rudi Johnson helped the Bengals to a 27/67/1 performance. Nobody is getting the job done for the Bills right now.

Washington's starting LG Dave Fiore (doubtful) can't seem to get his injured right knee into game-shape, and Randy Thomas is having knee trouble, too (probable). Buffalo's starting LDT Sam Adams (ankle) and backup DT Ron Edwards (shoulder) missed the game last week, and may stand on the sidelines again this week (both are questionable).

The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 58F and a low of 38F, with a 10% chance for rain - a nice, cool day for a football game.

Washington moves the ball well in this phase when they want to, and Buffalo is very vulnerable so far in 2003. Don't look for any of the Redskins' backs to tear up the fantasy world individually, but the group has a good chance to be effective vs. Buffalo.



Atlanta's T.J. Duckett/Warrick Dunn vs. The New Orleans Defense (Neutral Matchup)

The Falcons stunk up the joint on Monday Night Football last week, and got blanked by the Rams. The tandem of Duckett and Dunn managed only 21/73/0 (16/50 for Duckett and 5/23 for Dunn), while adding 4/25 receiving (3/18 for Dunn, 1/7 for Duckett). It was disappointing, after they showed signs of life vs. Minnesota two weeks ago (11/69/0 rushing and 2/10/0 for Duckett, and 3/15/1 with 6/83/0 for Dunn). The team is in a shambles at this point, and the coaching staff doesn't seem to have any answers except waiting for Mike Vick to return to the lineup.

QB Doug Johnson has been benched for Kurt Kittner but it's hard for folks to get excited there about that improving the running game.

New Orleans found a cure for what ailed them in their game against the lowly Bears, and managed to win a game again this season. One week after Stephen Davis trampled them for 30/159/1, the Bears ran everywhere but the end-zone racking up 32/140/0. The Saints as a team rank 24th in the NFL allowing an average of 126 yards per game (and have surrendered 4 rushing scores so far), but haven't played up to even that mediocre standard lately. DL Charles Grant (3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles) and LB Fred Thomas (8 solo tackles, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble and 2 passes defensed) were both in the top 10 among IDP's at their positions last week (7th and 4th, respectively).

LB Sedrick Hodge and DE Darren Howard remain sidelined for the Saints. Atlanta's squad is healthy in this phase of the game.

This game is being played in a dome, so weather is not an issue.

Atlanta has trouble on offense in a big way, and New Orleans isn't defending the run worth beans lately. That sounds like an ugly but neutral matchup to us.



Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The St. Louis Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Nobody is hotter in fantasy football right now than Ahman Green - 72/433/5 rushing and 11/62/1 receiving in the last 3 weeks puts him at the top of the RB chart. Last week, he exploded for 26/139/1 and 6/51/1 vs. the Kansas City defense - he's is simply tearing up opposing fantasy teams lately. As a team, the Packers have rushed 172 times for 857 yards - an average of 5 yards per carry - the big guys upfront have been opening wide holes for everybody this season.

Saint Louis comes into this game hot, having just blanked the Falcons on Monday Night Football. Their rush D was outstanding last week, allowing only 21/73/0 to the Falcon's backs - and they were strong week 4 too, holding Arizona to 14/36/1 as a team. That's significantly better play than their season average (100.4 rushing yards per game), although they have been tough to score on all season (only 3 scores allowed in this phase so far). Jamie Duncan led the defensive front seven last week, with 2 solo tackles, 3 assists and 1 sack for 5 yards.

Backup RB Tony Fisher aggravated his groin injury in the last game, so he may miss this one (questionable) - FB William Henderson is probable to go despite a sore neck. St. Louis came out of the laugher vs. the Falcons in good shape, although DE Courtland Bullard is questionable with a tweaked hamstring, while LB Robert Thomas has a sore groin (probable).

The game is being played in the Edward Jones Dome, so weather isn't a factor.

Green and the Packers are running the ball really well lately, but the Rams' defense has been very stout in this phase, too. Sounds like an even contest to us.



Miami's Ricky Williams vs. The New England Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Ricky Williams has collected 2 TDs in the last 2 games, and is definitely the man in Miami as far as rushing the ball is concerned. Unfortunately, his fantasy value has been depressed in recent weeks by a very poor yardage total - 41/114 in 2 games, or about 57 yards rushing per contest (with 2/20 receiving in 2 contests). Last week, he managed 19/75/1 rushing (0 receptions), which was good for 7th among all fantasy football backs, but it isn't the high production we expect to see from this offense. The passing game has struggled in recent weeks (with very few throws deep down the field), which is allowing defenses to concentrate on containing Williams.

New England, on the other hand, plays mediocre in this phase of the game, limiting yardage (89.3 yards per contest on average), but allowing a lot of rushing scores (7 so far in 2003, near the bottom of the league). They did keep the Giants out of the end-zone (24/75/0 as a team last week), but the field conditions were very poor in that game. In week 5, Tennessee's attack put up 27/70/2 (both TDs were McNair scores). The Pats are tough to rack up a gaudy yardage total against, but vulnerable in the red-zone.

Miami's starting LT Mark Dixon remains sidelined due to an ankle surgery that he is rehabbing. FB Rob Konrad has a knee injury (doubtful). New England's defensive front is really banged up, with starting DT Ted Washington (broken leg) and starting LB Ted Johnson (foot) out, while starting WLB Mike Vrabel is nursing an arm injury (doubtful) and starting MLB Tedy Bruschi limping due to a leg injury.

The weather forecast for South Florida is for muggy conditions -- 86F for a high, 70F for a low with a 30% chance for rain. If the rain comes down hard, the field could get sloppy and slow, and ball handling will become more of an issue.

Williams and the Dolphins are struggling to get things rolling smoothly right now, while New England has injury-issues and gives up TDs in bunches at points. That sounds like a neutral matchup to us (it's a good one if you play in a basic-scoring league, though).



New York Giants' Tiki Barber vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Tiki Barber continues to contribute roughly 100 yards of combined offense to his team week in, and week out. Over the last 2 games, he has 52/142/1 rushing and 12/76/0 receiving - last week, the numbers were 22/71/0 rushing and 8/48/0 receiving. As is usual, he rarely scores TDs (he's scored just one this season, and 2002 was the only season in his career featuring double-digit TDs), which depresses his value in basic scoring leagues quite a bit. The Giants as a whole have the league's 25th ranked rushing attack (122/483, a 4.0 ypc average), but in this case Barber gets almost all the carries, so his touches are comparable to other backs on teams with stronger attacks (but more backs sharing the pie).

Philadelphia's rush defense tops the league, allowing only 68.2 yards per game on average, and they have only allowed 3 scores in 2003. Part of their statistical strength stems from the injury woes/ineffectiveness of their secondary, though, rather than overwhelming play along the DL. That being said, they have surrendered 36/119/1 to the Cowboy's, and 21/49/1 to the Redskins in their two most recent games - they've been up and down in this phase, as you can see.

Philadelphia's reserve DL Jerome McDougle continues to miss time with his injured ankle (doubtful). The Eagles also list DT Corey Simon (foot) and DE Brandon Whiting (hamstring) as probable. New York is relatively healthy coming into this game.

The forecast calls for a high of 57F, with 43F for a low and a 50% chance for rain - sounds like another slippery, sloppy day is heading for Giants' stadium.

Barber is a dual-threat back, and he will likely have more success catching the ball than running it this weekend. But yards are yards. We see this as a neutral matchup.



Oakland's Charlie Garner / Justin Fargas / Tyrone Wheatley vs. The Kansas City Defense (Neutral Matchup)

The RBBC continues to get more muddled as the Raiders' losses mount - last week, Justin Fargas led the team with 6/33/0 rushing, while Charlie Garner led the team in receiving (9/51/0). All told, the Raiders rushed for 21/90/0 vs. Cleveland. Not too shabby as a team, but no one guy got a lions' share of that pie, which is bad news for fantasy owners still praying that Oakland can resurrect their moribund offense. Over the last 3 weeks, Garner is the top Oakland back, with 36/190/1 rushing and 11/62/0 receiving, but an ill wind is starting to blow his way out West by the Bay.

Kansas City, meanwhile, won a dramatic shootout vs. Green Bay last week, and gave up a lot or real estate to Ahman Green and company in the course of the game (35/183/2) just one week after laying down for Clinton Portis and the Broncos (31/176/1). The Chiefs may be winning, but it is not thanks to their defensive front's efforts lately -- they are 27th in the NFL allowing 132 yards per game (with 4 TDs allowed), and have played worse that that in the last two weeks. LB's Scott Fujita (9 solo tackles and 2 sacks) and Shawn Barber (9 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 sack) both cracked the top 5 among all IDP linebackers last week (3rd and 5th, respectively).

Oakland's OL took a major blow last week, when starting LG Frank Middleton tore his quadriceps muscle (likely out for the season). Starting RG Mo Collins (knee - questionable) and Starting RT Lincoln Kennedy (calf - questionable) missed last week's game. C Matt Stinchcomb has a sore shoulder (questionable). The Raiders' line is in shreds right now. Starting DT John Browning (toe sprain -- probable) and starting DE Vonnie Holliday (groin - probable) are dinged up, backup LB Quinton Caver (left thumb injury) was hurt last week, while reserve LB's Kawika Mitchell (hamstring - questionable) and Fred Jones (foot - questionable) and backup DL R-Kal Truluck (ankle - doubtful) missed the game last week. LB Shawn Barber has a sore quadriceps (probable). Both teams are pretty banged up, as you can see.

The forecast for Network Associate Stadium calls for a high of 70F and a low of 53F, with a 10% chance for rain - it should be fine football weather Monday Night if the forecast holds up.

Two injury-riddled and sub-par units lock horns in this game - it looks like a neutral matchup to us from here.



San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs. The Cleveland Defense (Neutral Matchup)

LaDainian Tomlinson is doing everything he can to carry his team. In the past two games he's played in, the guy has thrown 1/21/1, rushed for 38/225/1, and caught 11/54/0. Those are excellent fantasy numbers by any yardstick. He comes into this game rested after a bye week.

Cleveland has started winning games, and it's due to their defense. Right now they rank 21st in rushing yards allowed per game, at 119.2 - but they've only allowed 3 rushing scores so far. In their past two games, the D has played much better, allowing 18/60/1 to Pittsburgh, and 21/90/0 to Oakland last week. LB Ben Taylor led the way last week with 9 solo tackles and 3 assists.

Cleveland enjoys good health among their defenders, and the Chargers are rested up (G Solomon Page's ankle is sore (probable) - injuries aren't a major factor in the matchup.

The forecast for Cleveland Browns' Stadium calls for a high of 57F and a low of 42F, with a 10% chance for rain - a nice, cool day for a football game.

Tomlinson is an elite back, while the Browns' defense is playing at an elite level lately in this phase. This looks like a neutral matchup to be played in the Browns' house.



Buffalo's Travis Henry vs. The Washington Defense (Tough Matchup)

The offense is sputtering in Buffalo, and they couldn't even come to life against one of the leagues' worst run defenses (NYJ) last week. Travis Henry was 18/53/0 rushing with 7/35/0 receiving - and the Jets won by 27 points. Over the past 2 games, Henry has 43/138/1 rushing, and 9/49/1 receiving - he's up and down from week to week, with no rhyme or reason to the flux.

Washington, on the other side of the coin, is solidly mediocre in this phase of the game, allowing an average of 103.8 yards rushing per game, and surrendering 4 rushing scores this season. Philly put up 30/121/1 against them 2 weeks ago, and then Tampa galloped for 25/111/0 last week - 4+ yards per carry on average, lately. WLB Jesse Armstead led the way last week with 7 solo tackles and 1 assist in the losing effort.

Buffalo's starting LT Jonas Jennings injured his hip last week (probable), while Sammy Morris (abdomen) is questionable to play. Washington's defensive front is in good shape, health-wise - DT Jermane Haley has a hand injury (questionable).

The forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium calls for a high of 58F and a low of 38F, with a 10% chance for rain - a nice, cool day for a football game.

Buffalo's attack just isn't very consistent, and is coming off a bad game. Washington's defense is reliably mediocre, and doesn't give up a lot of TDs. Advantage, Washington.



Cincinnati's Corey Dillon vs. The Baltimore Defense (Tough Matchup)

Corey Dillon practiced on Tuesday and Wednesday but Marvin Lewis still seems unsure how much he'll be able to do Sunday. Stay tuned. The Bengals' offense struggles without their #1 RB in the lineup. So far in 2003, he has 44/164/1 rushing with 3/13/0 receiving, so his fantasy owners are basically holding their breath, waiting for Dillon to get on track.

Baltimore's rush defense is on the cusp of the top ten in the NFL (99.8 yards per game allowed (12th) and tied for first with only 2 TDs surrendered so far). They gave up 20/90/0 to the Cardinals last week, and 28/129/0 to the Chiefs in week 4 - they bend, but rarely break, even in the face of the best rushing attacks. Ray Lewis had 6 tackles and 5 assists last week.

Cincinnati is coming off a bye week, is in good health outside of Dillon. The Ravens' defense is also in good shape. Injuries aren't much of a factor in this game.

The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 64F and a low of 46F, with a 10% chance for rain - a nice, cool day for a football game.

Dillon is one of the better backs in the NFL, but hasn't shown a whole lot this year due to injuries. Baltimore has a strong defense - this looks like a tough matchup, at Cincinnati's house.



New England's Kevin Faulk / Mike Cloud / Antowain Smith vs. The Miami Defense (Tough Matchup)

Mike Cloud got the start and the lone rushing score last week (9/23/1), but Kevin Faulk was the most effective back in the game for New England (14/87/0 rushing with 1/6/0 receiving). With Antowain Smith questionable this week, the most likely scenario is that Faulk will get a majority of the work, while Smith and Cloud get looks in short-yardage and goal-line situations. It's a RBBC from the nether realms (from a fantasy owner's perspective, anyway) in New England right now.

Miami's defense feasted on Fred Taylor last week (16/35/0) in this phase, but coughed up a TD to Byron Leftwich (5/24/1) - Jacksonville rang up 30/88/1 as a team rushing the ball. Tiki Barber and company put up 23/77/1 two weeks ago - the Dolphins are limiting rushing yardage but giving up a score here and there lately. The 2 scores in the last two weeks represent all the TDs this unit has given up, and they average only 70.8 rushing yards allowed per game - Miami ranks as the 2nd best NFL defense in rushing yardage allowed in 2003. The recent spate of TDs allowed indicates a small chink in their otherwise solid armor.

New England continues to wait for starting RT Adrian Klemm to get back in the game, and FB Larry Centers has a knee injury (doubtful) and Antowain Smith is questionable with his sore shoulder. Miami missed starting WLB Junior Seau (hamstring) and starting LDT Tim Bowens (hand) last week - both are questionable to play. DE's Jason Taylor (quadriceps) and Adewale Ogunleye (hip) and LB Zach Thomas (foot) are all probable to play.

The weather forecast for South Florida is for muggy conditions -- 86F for a high, 70F for a low with a 30% chance for rain. If the rain comes down hard, the field could get sloppy and slow, and ball handling will become more of an issue.

New England's attack is 8th in the league in terms of yards gained so far in 2003 (710), but no one is really the focus of the team's efforts. Miami is tough to run on - this looks like a tall order for the visitors.



New York Jets' Curtis Martin vs. The Houston Defense (Tough Matchup)

Curtis Martin finally showed some of his ability last week, rushing 20 times for 77 yards in the win over Buffalo. It wasn't a dominating performance, but it was much better than early in the season - in his last two games, Martin has rushed 41/141/0 and snagged 5 catches for 51 yards and 0 scores, so he is showing signs of resuscitating his role in the Jets' attack. This year, the Jets sport the league's worst rushing attack, gaining a paltry 327 yards on 109 carries (a 3.0 ypc average), so don't get too excited just yet - but it does look like the Jets' rushing attack is slowly getting back to form.

Houston's rush defense is solidly mediocre this year, ranking 18th in the league allowing 111.4 yards per game and 6 rushing scores so far in 2003. In their last two games, the Texans have coughed up 33/114/1 to the Titans last week, and 22/79/1 to the Jags two weeks ago - they are holding down the average ypc to around 3.5 which is good, but are vulnerable in the red-zone. RILB Jamie Sharper led the team vs. Tennessee with 7 solo tackles, 3 assists and 1 sack.

Both teams come into this game relatively healthy - injuries aren't a major factor in this matchup.

The forecast for Reliant Stadium calls for a high of 80F and a low of 59F, with a 10% chance for rain - sounds like a great day to play football.

Martin and the Jets mount an improving but still anemic charge in the rushing phase, while the Texans are solidly in the middle of the NFL pack defending the run. As they are playing in their home stadium, we give the nod to Houston.



San Francisco's Garrison Hearst / Kevan Barlow vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Tough Matchup)

Garrison Hearst continues to see approximately twice as many carries each week as Kevan Barlow, and has significantly outscored Barlow in fantasy points during the last 3 weeks (48/192/1 rushing and 8/45/0 receiving, vs. 27/136 rushing and 2/33/0 receiving for Barlow). Last week, Hearst was 16/62/1 with 1/4/0 receiving, while Barlow carried the ball 9 times for 40 yards. As a team, the 49ers have the 6th best rushing attack in the NFL, with 185/783 (a 4.2 ypc average).

Tampa Bay's rush D is in the top 10 this season, allowing 92.6 yards per game on average, with 4 rushing scores allowed so far this year. However, Indianapolis rang them up for 3 rushing scores just two weeks ago (22/74/3), while Washington was stuffed last week (23/68/0). The recent statistics indicate that the defensive front is tightening in terms of yards allowed per game.

Last week, MLB Nate Webster led the team with 4 solo tackles and 4 assists. DE Simeon Rice was an IDP monster with 6 solo tackles, 4 sacks, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery last week (#1 among fantasy DL).

The left side of San Francisco's line is limping again - starting LT Derrick Deese and starting LG Eric Heitmann both aggravated their ankle injuries last week and may not be able to play this week (questionable). C Jeremy Newberry (ankle) and G Ron Stone (wrist) are probable to play. Tampa Bay continues to wait on backup LB Shelton Quarles to return to the lineup after healing up his broken forearm.

The forecast for 3COM Park calls for a high of 69F and a low of 53F, with a 10% chance for rain - very good football weather.

The problems on the left side of San Francisco's line couldn't come at a worse time, with one of the finest defenses in the NFL coming to town. This looks like a tough matchup for the home-team 49ers.



Detroit's Shawn Bryson / Olandis Gary vs. The Dallas Defense (Bad Matchup)

Shawn Bryson (19/93/0 rushing and 5/16/0 receiving) and Olandis Gary (21/106/1 and 3/12/0) have between the two of them provided Detroit with a credible running game in their last two outings. Bryson led the way week 4 (13/73/0 rushing with 4/7/0 receiving), while Gary was tops week 5 (14/64/1 and 2/14/0). One big problem this week is that Charles Rogers is out of the lineup, leaving Az-Zahir Hakim and Bill Schroeder as the starting tandem at WR - neither is as explosive as Rogers.

Dallas is currently the 3rd ranked rush defense in the league, allowing a mere 74.2 yards per game with only 3 rushing scores surrendered so far in 2003. Last week, the Eagles found a chink in the armor, putting up 31/122/2 as a team, but Arizona was crushed like a worm 2 weeks ago (18/32/0). The Eagles' outing was atypical of how Dallas performs in this phase of the game.

Both units come into the game healthy, although Dallas lists DT Daleroy Stewart as questionable with a leg injury.

This game is being played in a dome, so weather isn't an issue.

The Cowboys are tough to run on, and the Detroit tandem will be the focus of their efforts until Harrington and company prove they can pass effectively (if they can). Advantage, Dallas.



Tennessee's Eddie George / Steve McNair vs. The Carolina Defense (Bad Matchup)

Steve McNair sure can throw the ball well, and he's no slouch at scrambling around, either. Too bad he gets little to no help from his formerly stalwart RB Eddie George these days. George is the 51st ranked fantasy RB over the past 3 weeks, with 45/116/0 rushing and 4/32/0 receiving. That's a 2.5 yards-per-carry average that George is sporting - a very poor showing from the former Pro-Bowler. No wonder McNair is throwing the ball all over the place. Robert Holcombe got the teams' rushing score last week (3/25/1), and rookie Chris Brown saw a few carries, too (4/15/0).

Carolina plays bend but don't break defense in this phase, allowing an average of 102 rushing yards per game (14th in the NFL) - they are tied for the NFL lead with only 2 rushing scores allowed. 27/76/1 was what the Colts managed last week, while Deuce McAllister and company gained 155 yards on 29 carries two weeks ago - but failed to run one into the end-zone. MLB Dan Morgan led the way with 6 solo tackles, 4 assists and 1 fumble recovery last week.

Carolina's starting LDT Brentson Buckner missed the game last week with a knee injury (probable this week), while Tennessee comes into the game relatively healthy in this phase of the game - RB Chris Brown is still struggling with his sore hamstring (questionable).

The forecast for Ericsson Stadium calls for a high of 64F and a low of 44F, with a 10% chance for rain - perfect football weather.

Eddie George has lost a step or two this season, and Carolina has a top-notch defensive front. A big advantage flows to home-team Carolina in this matchup.

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