Rushing Matchups

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Priest Holmes is playing the toughest rush defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter. In the same way, if the worst RB on your roster has a “great” matchup, that doesn’t necessarily mean you start him, it just means he’ll likely fare better this week than he normally would.

Bottom line, the cheatsheets are the final word.

Let's jump to it.

Joe

Bye Weeks:
Atlanta: Warrick Dunn/T.J. Duckett are on bye this week.
Green Bay: Ahman Green is on bye this week.
Oakland: Charlie Garner/Tyrone Wheatley/Zack Crockett are on bye this week.
Washington: Trung Canidate/Ladell Betts/Sultan McCullough/Rock Cartwright are on bye this week.

Buffalo’s Travis Henry vs. The Kansas City Defense (Great Matchup)

Travis Henry blew up week 7 vs. Washington with 31/167/2 rushing (39/196/2 as a team). Do you think the ballyhoo surrounding Willis McGahee’s return to practice served to motivate him? Anyway, Henry has been a good-to-great fantasy start in his last 3 games, with 74/305/3 rushing and 10/62/1 receiving during that span (2^nd in FP per week among all RB’s). His 4.1 ypc average over that 3 week span is 1 yard per carry better than the team’s average for the 2003 season – sounds like the OL is starting to do their job run-blocking again.

The run D was decent vs. Oakland on Monday night (25/100/1) this past week, but awful 2 weeks ago vs. Green Bay (35/183/2). This season, the Chiefs rank as the 24^th rushing D in the league, allowing 127.4 yards per game and 5 TD’s so far this season. The linebacking corps enjoyed an awesome IDP evening on Monday night, with Scott Fujita ranking #1 among all fantasy LB (11 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack) and Shawn Barber at #2 (8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble).

Buffalo is still waiting for backup RB Sammy Morris to recover from hernia surgery (questionable) and T Mike Williams has a sore neck (probable). KC lists LB Fred Jones (foot) and DE R-Kal Truluck (ankle) as questionable, while LBs Shawn Barber (knee) and Kawika Mitchell (hamstring) and DT John Browning (shoulder) are all probable to play.

Arrowhead Stadium expects a high of 53F and a low of 34F with a 10% chance of precipitation on Sunday – it should be fine weather for running backs to pound the ball.

Henry is playing at the top of his game right now, and the Chiefs are mediocre to poor in this phase (depending on the week). A big edge goes to the visitors in this game.

Carolina’s Stephen Davis vs. The New Orleans Defense (Good Matchup)

Carolina suffered a power outage vs. Tennessee: Stephen Davis eked out 11/20/0 rushing and 1/9/0 receiving, (while DeShaun Foster had 2/10/0 rushing and 4/20/0 receiving in limited duty). It was totally atypical for an offense used to rushing the ball 40+ times a game (the team ranks 6^th in the league with 203/904 yards and a 4.5 ypc average this season). Over the past 3 weeks, in fact, Davis is the 16^th ranked fantasy back with 56/255/2 rushing and 2/12/0 receiving (including last week’s dismal outing). We think it was an aberration, not a trend – largely due to the Titan’s very quick surge of scoring in the first quarter last week, which put the Panthers out of their game plan from the get-go.

In week 7 vs. Atlanta, the Saints gave up 22/130/1 (with a long of 69 by Dunn for the TD); while in week 6 the Chicago Bears slapped down 32/140/0. As you can see, the Saints aren’t very stout in this phase – as a matter of fact, they rank 23^rd in the NFL currently, allowing an average of 126.6 rushing yards per game and they have surrendered 5 rushing scores so far in 2003. The defense just doesn’t excel at stopping the run.

Carolina’s in good shape (Davis bruised arm is fine now), while the Saints continue to wait on LB Sedrick Hodge and DE Darren Howard – both aren’t expected back until sometime in November. DT Grady Jackson has a finger injury (questionable). FB Nick Goings is questionable for the Panthers due to a concussion, while DeShaun Foster is probable despite a thumb injury.

This game is to be played in the Superdome, so weather won’t be a factor.

Carolina usually mounts a dominating attack, and New Orleans is not a strong rush defense. Advantage, Carolina.

Chicago’s Anthony Thomas / Adrian Peterson / Stanley Pritchett / Rabih Abdullah vs. The Detroit Defense (Good Matchup)

Things are very dicey in the Chicago offense right now – will Thomas be ready to play on Sunday, will Adrian Peterson? Both are listed as questionable. Or will the Bears be forced to go with the tandem of journeyman RB Rabih Abdullah and FB Stanley Pritchett? As of this writing, no one is sure who will be carrying the ball come Sunday – keep an eye on our email updates as the week progresses. Abdullah, BTW, has 6 years of NFL experience with Tampa Bay and Chicago, and goes 6’0” and 220 pounds (he played college ball at Lehigh). One thing is certain – Kordell Stewart will be on the sidelines, while Chris Chandler tries to spark the passing game. That should help out whoever ends up carrying the ball come game time.

Detroit is almost as bad at defending the run as Chicago is: in week 7 vs. Dallas the Cowboys bashed them for 43/134/1. Week 5 vs. San Francisco’s Garrison Hearst and company the Lions gave up 39/142/1. They are soft up front in Detroit this year (currently ranking 25^th in the league allowing 129.5 rushing yards per game with 5 scores allowed).

Chicago’s injury problems are detailed above. Detroit will come into the game with their starting lineup intact.

The current forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 53F and a low of 39F with a 60% chance of precipitation – depending on whether rain or sleet falls, and how hard the wind blows, conditions at game time could be miserable. Keep an eye on the forecast as the game approaches.

The Bears were actually doing well before Thomas and Peterson went down (160/743 yards rushing this season, a robust 4.6 yards per carry) – run blocking is where their OL excels. Detroit is soft, so we expect whoever carries the ball on Sunday to enjoy good success in the game.

Dallas’ Troy Hambrick vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Good Matchup)

Troy Hambrick had a workmanlike outing vs. Detroit last week – 24/74/1 rushing (2/15/0 receiving), while the team pounded the ball 43 times for 134 yards and 1 score. The Cowboy’s offense has been firing on all cylinders in this phase in 2003, and stands as the 10^th best rushing team in the league, with 216/808 yards, for a 3.7 ypc average.

Tampa Bay was flattened by San Francisco last week for 41/212/1. Their old team-mate Chidi Ahanotu had this advice for his 49’er brethren before the game – “Man, keep running right at them. Run it down their throat. They want to dance. They want to look pretty. When you run it right at them, you really get into their psyche and take them out of everything they want to do.”

From the results of last week, that was pretty darn good advice, wouldn’t you say? In week 6 vs. Washington the Bucs fared better, allowing only 23/68/0 to the opposition. Tampa has been remarkably vulnerable in the rushing phase of the game this season, allowing an average of 112.5 yards per game (17^th in the league this season), and coughing up 5 TD’s so far. No Tampa player appeared in the top 10 among IDP DL or LB players last week, either.

Tampa’s starting DE Simeon Rice injured his back last week, and is listed as this week. Dallas is in good shape coming into the game.

This game is happening in Raymond James Stadium – the forecast calls for a high of 84F and a low of 68F with a 10% chance of precipitation. That sounds like perfect football weather to us.

Coach Parcells will have noticed the success the 49ers had last week against the Buccaneers, and they will no doubt get a heavy dose of rushing attempts from the Cowboy’s this week. Advantage, Dallas.

Indianapolis’ Edgerrin James / Ricky Williams vs. The Houston Defense (Good Matchup)

Will he or won’t he – Indianapolis is waiting to hear if Edgerrin James’ lower back is healthy enough for James to play (or not). If he can’t go, the Colts will hope to rely on Ricky Williams (17/57/0 rushing and 2/7/0 receiving week 6) – as they have been doing for some time now. However, Williams shows up as doubtful due to an ankle injury. If he can’t go, the Colts are down to Dominic Rhodes and Detron Smith in the absence of James. According to the Indy Star (10/22/03 issue, article by Phillip Wilson), Edgerrin James states: “I am playing this week. There's no doubt about it." However, head coach Dungy isn't sure that James is 100 percent. He said that he expects James to "really be ready to go. If not, we'll hold him out. We still want to look at this thing in the long run, the totality of the season." Stay tuned as game-day approaches, folks. James Mungro is out right now, due to a knee injury.

Houston allowed over 5.0 yards per carry to Curtis Martin (17/88/0) and LaMont Jordan (7/40/1) last week – the Jets average 3.4 yards per carry so far in 2003. That’s not good play on the defensive front. In week 6, the Titans didn’t need to run, but put up 33/114/1 anyway (McNair threw for 421 yards and 3 scores that day). Let’s just say that the defensive front is porous right now and leave it at that. This year the Texans are the 18^th ranked rush defense in the league, allowing 115.5 rushing yards per game and 7 rushing scores.

Indianapolis lists James as probable, as is Dominic Rhodes (ankle) and Detron Smith (head). OT’s Ryan Diem (ankle) and Tarik Glenn (knee) are questionable, while C Jeff Saturday if probable despite his bad back. Houston is concerned about starting ROLB Charlie Clemons’ sprained ankle (questionable). DE Gary Walker is probable to play through his sore toe.

This game is being played in the RCA Dome, so weather isn’t a factor.

The Colts will enjoy good success running the ball against the shaky Houston defense, but if James goes down they are very thin right now. Advantage, Indianapolis.

Kansas City’s Priest Holmes vs. The Buffalo Defense (Good Matchup)

Priest Holmes just keeps rolling along, with 27/123/1 rushing and 4/50/0 receiving vs. Oakland – he’s a fantasy points machine again. Over the last 3 weeks, Holmes has 66/301/2 rushing and 14/123 receiving -- #6 among all fantasy backs during that period. The team averages 4.4 yards per carry this year, thanks to their excellent OL. He’s a must start, every week (as if you didn’t know that).

Buffalo has been tough to score on recently – in week 7 vs. Washington they allowed only 22/56/0; while in week 6 vs. the NY Jets they bent for 33/118 but 0 scores. This year, the Bills are the 16^th ranked rush D allowing an average of 111.9 yards per game and 5 rushing scores. Lately, they are playing better than that season average indicates.

Both teams enjoy good health coming into this game. Holmes is listed as probable to play through his sore shoulder, while Derrick Blaylock has a sore hamstring (probable). DT Ron Edwards is the lone Bill on the report from this squad (shoulder, doubtful).

Arrowhead Stadium expects a high of 53F and a low of 34F with a 10% chance of precipitation on Sunday – it should be fine weather for running backs to pound the ball.

Holmes is one of the best backs in the business, while Buffalo is improving but still mediocre. Advantage, KC.

Minnesota’s Moe Williams/Onterrio Smith vs. The New York Giants’ Defense (Good Matchup)

Last week vs. Denver, Moe Williams ran for 14/42/0 and caught 4 balls for 50 yards with 0 TD’s; Onterrio Smith put up 5/29/1. Reports from the Twin Cities this week indicate that Michael Bennett’s return to action will probably be delayed until November 9^th, which means that Williams and Smith will continue to headline the rushing attack in Minnesota for 2 more weeks. Onterrio Smith leads all NFC rookies in rushing with 185 yards to date. Over the last 2 games, Moe Williams leads the tandem in fantasy points with 25/113/2 rushing and 6/65/1 receiving (8^th among all backs in average FP per week), while Smith has put up 18/92/1 rushing and 2/23/0 receiving (with a 2 pt. conversion) – good for 29^th in FP per game.

The Giant’s defense is in the middle of the NFL pack this season – 13^th – averaging 103.5 rushing yards per game allowed (with 5 rushing TD’s surrendered so far). In week 7 vs. Philly’s stable of backs the team contained the opposition to 23/87/1. In week 6 vs. NE the D allowed 31/129/1. The defensive front has been playing up to it’s average in recent weeks. Last week, Michael Strahan was the 2^nd best IDP DL in the league, racking up 5 solo tackles, 0 assists, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble and 1 pass defensed.

Both units come into this game in relatively good health.

This game is to be played in the Metrodome, so weather won’t be a factor.

Minnesota’s rushing attack ranks 9^th in the NFL, and has two potent weapons in Williams and Smith (not to mention Daunte Culpepper’s scrambling ability), while the Giants are a mediocre unit coming off a tough loss. Advantage, Minnesota.

New Orleans’ Deuce McAllister vs. The Carolina Defense (Good Matchup)

Deuce McAllister enjoyed a great game vs. Atlanta rushing for 21/116/2 (1/0/0) – he took the 4^th quarter off in the blowout. The team as a whole rushed for 36/165/3 (Ki-Jana Carter scored and put up 10/21/1 in relief of McAllister). Of course, they should have been able to beat up the wounded Falcons (coach Reeves was heard to say after the game that “We can’t stop anybody right now”), but it is still good to see McAllister excel when he should. Over the past 3 games McAllister is the 5^th best fantasy back in the land, putting up 73/356/2 rushing and 7/73/0 receiving in that span. He has 3 consecutive 100 yards games against the Panthers in the past 2 seasons.

Meanwhile, Carolina stumbled week 7 vs. Tennessee’s less-than-impressive unit, allowing 36/134/1. In week 6 vs. Indianapolis’ tandem of backups they allowed 27/76/1 – the unit is not living up to their tough reputation right now (2 of the 3 rushing scores they have allowed this year were given up in the past 2 weeks). The Panthers are currently the 15^th ranked defense in rushing yards allowed per game (107.3 on average). Last week, Mike Rucker was the 3^rd best IDP DL, with 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 sack and 1 pass defensed.

Carolina’s starting MLB Dan Morgan is struggling to stay on the field right now, and is questionable due to a concussion Others listed as questionable on the initial injury report include: LB Brian Allen (groin), DT Brentson Buckner (hip), DT Shane Burton (groin). The New Orleans unit is looking good coming into the game.

This game is to be played in the Superdome, so weather won’t be a factor.

McAllister is an explosive back, and the Panthers are showing signs of weakness in this phase in recent games. Advantage flows to the home-team Saints in this matchup.

Philadelphia’s Brian Westbrook / Duce Staley / Correll Buckhalter vs. The New York Jets’ Defense (Good Matchup)

Brian Westbrook strutted his stuff last Sunday, with 15/67/1 rushing (plus a punt return TD to seal the game). As a team, the Eagles gained 23/87/1 – not a spectacular outing, but good enough to win. Westbrook is definitely emerging as the star of this backfield. Staley and Buckhalter combined for 4/24/0 rushing, and 1/4/0 receiving last week. Westbrook is the 17^th best fantasy RB in FP per week over the last 3 weeks, with 34/168/3 rushing and 7/26/0 receiving during that span.

The Jets’ rush defense was little more than a speed bump last week, as Domanick Davis blew past them for 27/129/0 rushing (a 4.8 ypc average) while adding 9/70/0 receiving, Stacey Mack punched in both of the rushing scores on 4/13/2 worth of work. In week 6, Buffalo was held to 19/53/0. The Jets are generally terrible in this phase of the game in 2003, allowing an average of 153 rushing yards per contest (30^th in the NFL) and have given up 6 rushing scores so far.

Philadelphia will be without G Jermane Mayberry (elbow, out), while T Tra Thomas is questionable due to a wrist injury.

Lincoln Financial Field expects a high of 64F and a low of 52F with a 10% chance of precipitation on Sunday – it should be a fine day for football.

The Eagles’ are moving the ball fairly well in this phase, thanks to Westbrook, while the Jets are soft. Advantage, Philadelphia.

San Francisco’s Garrison Hearst / Kevan Barlow vs. The Arizona Defense (Good Matchup)

Garrison Hearst (20/117/1), Kevan Barlow (15/75/0), and the rest of the team (6/20/0) humiliated the Super Bowl champions last week (41/212/1). They are on a roll despite the absence of the starters on the left side of the OL (LT Derrick Deese and LG Eric Heitmann both missed the game vs. Tampa Bay). Over his past 3 games, Hearst is the 12^th-ranked fantasy back in the land in FP per game, with 55/253/2 rushing and 5/52/0 receiving, while Barlow is the junior partner at 49^th with 31/139/0 rushing and 2/33/0 receiving.

In week 6 Baltimore’s Jamal Lewis racked up 21/131/0 (38/213/0 rushing as a team) against Arizona. In week 5 Dallas as a team rushed for 36/97/0. This year the Cards are ranked 20^th in the league allowing 117.5 rushing yards per game, with 4 rushing scores allowed so far. They do seem to get some back-bone in the red-zone, as the statistics and recent games indicate.

Arizona is coming off their bye week, healthy and ready to play – DT Wendell Bryant (ankle) and DT Derrick Ransom (ankle) are probable to play. San Francisco’s OL is banged up – besides Deese (doubtful) and Heitmann (probable), they list C Jeremy Newberry (leg) and G Ron Stone (wrist) as probable to play.

The current forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 86F and a low of 64F with a 10% chance of precipitation. It sounds like a fine day to play a game of football is on tap.

Hearst and company are finding ways to move the ball despite their banged-up OL, and that shouldn’t change this week against the mediocre Cardinals’ front 7.

Seattle’s Shaun Alexander vs. The Cincinnati Defense (Good Matchup)

Shaun Alexander had his way with Chicago last week, racking up 21/101/2 rushing and 4/21/0 receiving as the Seahawks advanced to 5-1 this season. He’s had his way a lot recently, and ranks as the 7^th best fantasy back in fantasy points scored in the last 3 weeks, with 63/280/3 rushing and 10/80/0 receiving during that span. Seattle averages 4.6 yards per carry this season – their OL is definitely giving Alexander and company a fine surge when rushing plays are called.

Cincinnati has been decent but not spectacular at rush defense recently: in week 7 vs. Baltimore they held Jamal Lewis and company to 28/120/1 (pretty good, considering the Ravens are #1 in the league at running the ball), while in week 5 vs. Travis Henry they contained him to 25/85/1. For the 2003 season so far, the Bengals are the 22^nd ranked rush defense allowing 119.2 yards per game (with 6 rushing scores allowed this year) – not great, but not terrible, either.

Seattle is still waiting on OT Floyd Womack to get his toe healthy (questionable). Cincinnati’s defense is in good health, currently.

The current forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 65F and a low of 47F with a 30% chance of precipitation. If the rain comes down hard at game time, the field could get sloppy and ball-handling becomes a bigger issue.

Alexander is a top performer, while the Bengals are a very vanilla, mediocre bunch. Advantage, Seattle.

Baltimore’s Jamal Lewis vs. The Denver Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Jamal Lewis was his usual self vs. Cincinnati last week, gaining 19/101/0 on the ground and he added 1/8/0 receiving. The Ravens are tops in the league rushing the ball this season, with 199/1108 as a team (a 5.6 ypc average). This is one great back, and one great OL. Start him if you’ve got him.

Denver remained tough to run on during week 7 vs. Minnesota (22/72/1), despite the loss of Ian Gold. In week 6 vs. Pittsburgh they allowed 30/85/1 – this year, the Broncos have allowed only 3 rushing scores (2 in the last two games, though) and average 92.1 rushing yards allowed per game. The Broncos are one of the best in the league right now in this phase.

Both teams come into this one fairly healthy, although Baltimore’s G Bennie Anderson and RB Jamal Lewis are both probable despite sore shoulders. Denver says DT Daryl Gardener (wrist), DT Mario Fatafehi (knee) and LB Keith Burns (knee) are all probable to play. Denver lists DE Bryant McNeal as out with a back ailment.

The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 66F and a low of 55F with a 10% chance of precipitation – in a nutshell, great football weather.

Strength vs. strength is what we see in this matchup – sounds even to us.

Cincinnati’s Corey Dillon vs. The Seattle Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Corey Dillon got back into the game last week, but with mixed results – he only managed 39 yards on 18 carries vs. the tough Baltimore defensive front, but he scored a TD and added 2/16/0 in the passing phase of the game – it wasn’t a fantasy owner’s dream game, but it all added up to some solid points. Some rust is to be expected when a guy misses as much time as Dillon has in recent weeks.

Seattle has been up and down in recent weeks. Week 7 vs. Chicago’s backfield they held the opposition to 28/87/1, but in week 6 vs. San Francisco’s attack they coughed up 29/111/2. This year the Seahawks are squarely in the middle of the league at defending the run, allowing an average of 104.7 yards per game and surrendering 7 rushing scores so far.

Both units are in relatively good health coming into the game – Dillon is listed as probable despite his groin injury. Seattle lists LB Tracy White (ankle) as doubtful and LB Chad Brown (foot) as questionable.

Dillon and company form an inconsistent unit at best – but so are the Seattle defenders. Sounds even to us.

Denver’s Clinton Portis vs. The Baltimore Defense (Neutral Matchup)

All Clinton Portis did last week vs. Minnesota was to rush for 25/117/1 and to put up 3/43/0 receiving – it’s fair to say, the loss was not his fault. Portis is among the top 5 best fantasy backs in the last 3 weeks (63/305/2 rushing and 13/148/0 receiving) – he’s a must-start every week (as if you needed us to tell you that).

Baltimore is improving in this phase of the game. Last week, vs. Corey Dillon and company, they allowed only 28/59/1. In week 6 vs. Arizona they held Marcel Shipp and others to 20/90/0 – even better performances than their 10^th ranked average of 93.0 rushing yards allowed per game would indicate (3 rushing scores allowed this season, tied for 2^nd-least in the league). LDE Anthony Weaver was the 4^th best IDP DL last week, with 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, and 2 sacks in the game.

Denver’s starting LT Ephraim Salaam continues to have trouble with his bum knee, and is out. Baltimore’s unit is in good shape heading into the game.

The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 66F and a low of 55F with a 10% chance of precipitation – in a nutshell, great football weather.

Portis is a top-shelf back, but his offense may be one-dimensional with Danny Kanell under center this week. Baltimore plays stout rush defense – we call this a neutral matchup.

Detroit’s Olandis Gary / Shawn Bryson vs. The Chicago Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Last week the Detroit tandem of Olandis Gary (11/37/0) and Shawn Bryson (6/20/0) had a rough time getting much going vs. the Dallas Cowboys. In fact, they haven’t gotten much going in terms of fantasy points at all in recent weeks, with Bryson showing up at #63 in fantasy points per week, and Gary at 28^th. There just isn’t much happening on the Detroit offense since the loss of Charles Rogers.

Chicago is pretty pathetic at rush defense, ranking 31^st in the NFL right now allowing an average of 154 yards per game (with 8 rushing scores allowed so far in 2003). In week 7 vs. Seattle they gave up 28/124/2, while week 6 vs. New Orleans they were plowed under to the tune of 34/130/0. Yards and scores are easy to come by when you play the Bears in 2003.

Starting WLB Warrick Holdman (ankle) and starting DT Keith Traylor (knee) are 50-50 to be in the lineup this week for Chicago – both are listed as questionable, as is DE Phillip Daniels (toe). The Lions’ OL and RB’s are fairly healthy, just not productive – T Stockar McDougle is questionable with a sore shoulder.

Detroit is weak at running the ball, Chicago is poor at stopping the run. That’s an ugly but even matchup in our book.

Houston’s Domanick Davis / Stacey Mack vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Stacey Mack had to feel like Michael J. Fox last week, as he went “Back to the Future” and once again resumed the role of second-fiddle/plunge back – this time to Houston’s Domanick Davis. Look at the statistics: Davis did all the heavy lifting (27/129/0 rushing (a 4.8 ypc average) with 9/70/0 receiving), but Mack vultured both of the rushing scores on 4/13/2 worth of work. All Glory, no Guts. Anyway, the Texan’s new starting back’s career got an auspicious start. As a team, the Texans are the 17^th ranked rushing attack in the league, with 173/679 yards, a 3.9 ypc average this year.

Indianapolis was trampled by the Panthers week 6 (41/189/1), and generous to the Buccaneers (33/139/0) – let’s just say they aren’t too stout in this phase recently. In fact, the Colts are the 26^th ranked rush D in terms of yards allowed per game (131 per game), but tied for 1^st in the league with only 2 rushing scores allowed all season. Bend-but-don’t-break, indeed.

Indianapolis comes out of the bye with LB Marcus Washington (foot) and DT Montae Reagor (knee) still dinged up – both are probable to play. Houston lists starting RT Greg Randall as to play despite shoulder/neck injuries, while starting LG Milford Brown has missed a couple of starts due to his bum knee (probable).

This game is being played in the RCA Dome, so weather isn’t a factor.

Davis has a good chance to rack up a lot of yards again this week, but Mack owners may want to look elsewhere as he isn’t likely to plunge in 2 scores again in this game. We call it a neutral matchup in general, but if you play in a basic scoring league this is actually a bad matchup for Davis/Mack.

Miami’s Ricky Williams vs. The San Diego Defense (Neutral Matchup)

In week 7 vs. New England, Williams managed 27/94/0 rushing and 2/9/0 receiving – not the FP explosion owners love to see, but not chopped liver, either. However, it is strange to see 2 other Williams (Moe and the Colt’s Ricky) ahead of the dread-locked one on the fantasy back’s board – currently, Miami’s Ricky Williams is the 19^th ranked fantasy back in the land, with 68/208/2 rushing and 4/29/0 receiving in his last 3 games. Not exactly what owners had in mind when they spent a first-round draft selection to acquire Williams’ services.

San Diego finally managed to stop somebody in this phase of the game, last week vs. Cleveland (22/101/0). In week 5 vs. Jacksonville they held Taylor and company to 37/123/1. Both performances bettered their season average of 137.3 rushing yards allowed per game (6 scores given up so far in 2003) – the unit is headed in the right direction, at least. Donnie Edwards was the 6^th best IDP LB in the land last week, with 9 solo tackles, 2 assists and 2 passes defensed.

Miami’s OT Mark Dixon remains on the sidelines for now (questionable), while FB Rob Konrad is hurting (knee – questionable). San Diego’s defensive front is relatively healthy, at the moment.

Qualcomm Stadium expects a high of 71F and a low of 58F with a 10% chance of precipitation on Monday – just about perfect weather for a football game.

Williams is underperforming right now, while the Chargers are threatening to yank their rush defense out of the NFL’s cellar in recent weeks. Home field advantage evens the scales in this Monday night matchup – we call it a neutral matchup.

New England’s Kevin Faulk/Mike Cloud/Antowain Smith vs. The Cleveland Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Last week vs. Miami, Kevin Faulk had a rough day (18/38/0 rushing and 5/31/0 receiving), while Mike Cloud (5/8/0) was a non-entity. Faulk has been the best fantasy option over the last two games (32/125/0 rushing and 6/37/0 receiving – 33^rd among all fantasy backs in FP per week), but no-one has really been exciting in recent games. The Patriots had been running well as a team before this lull, and currently rank 12^th in the league with 204/769 yards (a 3.8 ypc average this year).

Cleveland looked stout in week 6 vs. Oakland (21/90/0), but got embarrassed last week vs. LaDainian Tomlinson and company to the tune of 36/228/1 (Tomlinson had the lion’s share with 26/200/1). This season, the Browns are in the bottom tier of run defenses in terms of yards per game allowed (134.7, 27^th in the NFL), but have only surrendered 4 rushing scores despite their vulnerability.

The Patriots released FB Larry Centers last week, and placed starting OT Adrian Klemm on IR due to his injured ankle, so they have absorbed some losses in this phase over the past week or so. G Joe Andruzzi’s shoulder is acting up (questionable). Cleveland’s defense is healthy at this point in the season, with only DT Gerard Warren on the injury report (thumb-probable).

This game will be played in Gillette Stadium – the forecast calls for a high of 62F and a low of 47F with a 10% chance of precipitation. It should be a great day for a football game.

New England has hit a rough spot recently in this phase, while the Browns are reeling from a heavy dose of LaDainian Tomlinson last week – it looks like an even matchup between struggling units to us.

New York Jets’ Curtis Martin / LaMont Jordan vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Neutral Matchup)

The Jets finally managed to get their running game off the ground, with both Curtis Martin (17/88/0) and LaMont Jordan (7/40/1) running well last week against the Houston Texans. The Texans aren’t exactly a tough rush defense, but it was still encouraging to see the Jets make something happen in this phase of the game. Of course, the offense is expecting Chad Pennington back this week, so an improved pass attack could help open up some room for Martin and Jordan this week.

Philadelphia was trampled by Tiki Barber and company last week (41/180/0), and surrendered 36/119/1 to Dallas week 6. They haven’t been so easy all year long, currently averaging 86.8 rushing yards allowed per game in 2003 (6^th in the league) with only 3 rushing scores allowed all season long. However, it is definitely the case that the Eagles’ defensive front is on a downward slop lately. Corey Simon led the NFL among IDP DL last week, with 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, and 1 fumble recovery. LB Mark Simoneau had 8 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 sack and 1 forced fumble (8^th among IDP LB last week).

Philadelphia lists starting WLB Nate Wayne as probable with his injured hip, while DL Jerome McDougle continues to languish on the sidelines (ankle – questionable). DT Corey Simon has a sore chest (probable). The Jets’ unit is in fine fettle.

Lincoln Financial Field expects a high of 64F and a low of 52F with a 10% chance of precipitation on Sunday – it should be a fine day for football.

Philadelphia has been softer than usual in this phase recently, while the Jets are finally finding a way to move the ball after an abysmal start this year. We call it an even matchup.

St. Louis’ Arlen Harris / Lamar Gordon / Marshall Faulk vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Mike Martz on the possibility that Marshall Faulk might play this weekend:

"It's up to Marshall, really, just if there was a need at that point, But I'm just not sure it's worth it. We'll see. If he's not strong, no, I won't do that. If he's strong enough, and he feels good, and he's running well enough, then that's something that we could consider." (10/20/03 article in the Post-Dispatch by Jim Thomas)

Arlen Harris’ performance vs. Green Bay: 18/85/1 rushing, 2/2/0 receiving – not too shabby. Word is that Lamar Gordon’s ankle sprain is a mild one, so he may be available come game time, too.

Pittsburgh comes off their bye this week – in week’s 6 contest vs. Clinton Portis and company they allowed 18/77/0; while in week 5 vs. Cleveland they were more generous surrendering 40/124/1. This year, the Steelers are 8^th in the league allowing an average of 90.8 yards per game (with 5 rushing scores given up so far). They are a pretty tough defensive front.

Besides Faulk and Gordon’s problems, the Rams are pretty healthy coming into the game. Starting T Kyle Turley has a slight concussion (probable). Pittsburgh is rested and ready to play football, with only LB Clint Kriewaldt on the injury report (hamstring – probable).

The current forecast for Heinz Field calls for a high of 60F and a low of 49F with a 30% chance of precipitation. If the rain comes down hard, the field will get soggy and the ball will be harder to handle.

St. Louis’ offense is on a roll, while the Steelers are rested and tough to run the ball on. We call it an even matchup before the fact.

Arizona’s Marcel Shipp vs. The San Francisco Defense (Tough Matchup)

Last year, Marcel Shipp had a mere 42 combined yards vs. San Francisco in week 8 – but he scored 2 TD’s. In week 16, he put up 20/84 yards rushing and 31 yards receiving – but didn’t score. In his last game this year, week 6, Shipp had over 100 yards of combined offense (14/61/0 rushing, 5/47/0 receiving) so he is quickly getting back into the groove of being the team’s featured back.

San Francisco throttled the Tampa rushing attack last week, holding starter Michael Pittman to 6/29/0 rushing (and the team only managed 14/68/0). In week 6 Shaun Alexander and company rushed for 34/147/1 vs. the 49’ers. For the season, the 49’ers are the 5^th best rush defense, averaging only 85 yards per game allowed, and they have surrendered only 4 rushing scores to date.

Arizona is rested and ready to play, while San Francisco’s defensive front looks good right now, too – DT Anthony Adams has a sore toe (questionable). Injuries aren’t a major factor in this matchup.

The current forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 86F and a low of 64F with a 10% chance of precipitation. It sounds like a fine day to play a game of football is on tap.

Shipp is a decent back, but he will find the going tough against the stout 49’er defensive front.

Cleveland’s William Green vs. The New England Defense (Tough Matchup)

In week 7, William Green rushed for 14/65/0 and had 1/4/0 receiving before exiting the game due to a shoulder injury. James Jackson had 5/27/0 and 2/22/0 vs San Diego in relief of Green. After the game, Green indicated that the injury wasn’t serious and that he felt he’d be fine to play against New England this week. Over the last 3 weeks, he has put up 73/325/1 rushing (with 3/7/0 receiving), so he is averaging a stout 100+ yards per game. The Cleveland rushing attack ranks 19^th in the league right now with 181/674 yards rushing (a 3.7 ypc average) to their credit.

During the past two weeks, scoring has been hard to come by against New England’s defensive front. In week 7 vs. Ricky Williams and company they allowed 29/97/0; vs. Tiki Barber in week 6 they contained the Giants’ back to 22/71/0 rushing and 8/48/0 receiving. This season, the Patriots rank 7^th in the league allowing only 90.4 yards per game on average (with 7 scores surrendered in the early going – but none recently, as noted above).

Cleveland’s OL is in injury trouble right now, with starting C Jeff Faine (knee) and starting LT Barry Stokes (ankle) banged up and dicey to play this week. Starting LT Shaun O’Hara has been sidelined indefinitely after his knee surgery last week, but is listed as questionable on the initial injury report. Green is listed as probable to play, as is OT Ryan Tucker (chest). New England has been dealing with a injury epidemic of their own, with LB Ted Johnson (foot) and DT Ted Washington (leg) sidelined for many weeks, while starting LB Mike Vrabel is nursing an arm injury (questionable), starting LB Willie McGinest has a neck injury (questionable), starting LB Roman Phifer is nursing a sore leg (questionable) and backup LB Matt Chatham has a sore leg (questionable).

This game will be played in Gillette Stadium – the forecast calls for a high of 62F and a low of 47F with a 10% chance of precipitation. It should be a great day for a football game.

Two injury-depleted units face off in this game – but New England has been finding a way to work around their problems, while the Browns seemed to struggle last week. Advantage, New England.

Jacksonville’s Fred Taylor vs. The Tennessee Defense (Tough Matchup)

Fred Taylor had a hard time vs. Miami in week 6, putting up 16/35/0 rushing and 8/64/0 receiving – not too bad from a total yardage view-point, but the lack of scoring limited his fantasy impact. Over his past two games, Taylor has 43/122/1 rushing, with 11/141/1 receiving, so he has been very valuable recently (3^rd in FP per game over the last 3 weeks).

Tennessee has been very effective in this phase in recent weeks, limiting the potent Carolina attack to 17/44/0 (2.6 ypc average) last week, and in week 6 vs. Houston they only allowed 16/91/0. This season, in fact, the Titans are the 3^rd ranked rush D in the land allowing an average of only 78.4 yards per game on the ground (5 rushing scores allowed so far).

Tennessee’s starting DE Jevon Kearse strained some ribs last week, and starting RDT Albert Haynesworth aggravated his elbow injury in the game (questionable). Jacksonville comes out of the bye week healthy.

The forecast for ALLTEL Stadium calls for a high of 79F and a low of 64F with a 30% chance of precipitation – if the rain comes down hard at game time, look for slick conditions to cause problems with footing – and for the football to get slippery in the muck.

Taylor is always a threat to take one to the house, but it will be harder than usual for him to do so against the tough Titan’s defensive front. The advantage flows to the visitors in this matchup.

New York Giant’s Tiki Barber vs. The Minnesota Defense (Tough Matchup)

In the heart-breaking loss to Philadelphia week 7, Tiki Barber rushed for 19/79/0 and added 5/34/0 receiving – a decent fantasy outing in a yardage or combinational scoring league. Over the last 3 weeks, he has 61/221/1 rushing and 17/110/0 receiving – despite the personnel problems on the OL, Barber is continuing to be productive in the rushing phase of the game. Last week, though, he lost a significant amount of playing time to Dorsey Levens at the end of the game (16/64/0 rushing) – keep an eye on this developing situation to determine if Levens is a threat to vulture significant amounts of touches in the weeks to come.

Minnesota’s defensive front faced Clinton Portis and company last week, allowing 27/138/1 rushing. In week 5 vs. Atlanta they gave up 17/104/1 (T. J. Duckett had a long of 55 yards in that game). The team averages 101 rushing yards allowed per game this season, and has given up 5 scores in this phase so far in 2003. That puts them right in the middle of the league (11^th ranked in terms of yards per game allowed). Lance Johnstone was the 5^th ranked IDP DL last week, with 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 interception, and 2 passes defensed in the game vs. Denver. Chris Claiborne was the 3^rd ranked IDP LB last week with 9 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble and 1 pass defensed. The Vikings have got it going on D this season, no doubt.

Of course, the major concern for the Giants this week is the loss of starting LG Rich Seubert for the season (surgery to repair a broken leg). If Jeff Roehl replaces him on the OL, the interior of the line will be composed of 3 rookies. Minnesota’s reserve LB Raonall Smith continues to struggle with a sore hamstring (doubtful), while reserve DL Billy Lyon missed last week due to his injured leg (probable).

This game is to be played in the Metrodome, so weather won’t be a factor.

The Giants’ line is green in the middle, and will have to adjust to yet another new member this week. Barber keeps making good things happen, but the attrition on the OL combined with a solid Minnesota defense will make things hard for him this week.

Pittsburgh’s Jerome Bettis / Amos Zereoue vs. The St. Louis Defense (Tough Matchup)

In their last game, week 6 vs. Denver, the Pittsburgh Steelers managed to put up 30/85/1 as a team. Jerome Bettis got the TD (14/34/1), while Amos Zereoue was limited to 10/15/0 rushing and 2/9/0 receiving. It was an underwhelming performance, without a doubt. So underwhelming, in fact, that coach Cowher decided to make a change this week – Jerome Bettis is now officially the starter for the Steelers. Cowher noted “Like I told Amos, it isn't anything he didn't do. I think right now where we are and the flux with the offensive line and the status of our running game and the ways Jerome has run, it's just more conducive to the power running style that he has right now.” (10/22/03 Tribune-Review article by Jerry DiPaola).

Zereoue is slated to resume his old role as primarily a third-down back. Over the past 2 games, Bettis has racked up 17/42/2 rushing and 1/7/0 receiving – he’s not a bad play in a basic scoring league, and Bettis may be poised to emerge as a viable general-purpose fantasy back.

St. Louis easily handled Green Bay last week, giving up 26/116/1 (most of it on a long TD romp by Najeh Davenport). In week 6 vs. Atlanta they strangled the flightless Falcons 21/73/0. The Rams have only given away 4 scores all season long, and currently rank 12^th in the league averaging 103 rushing yards allowed per game.

St. Louis has lost starting LB Tommy Polley for a few weeks due to an elbow injury. LB Robert Thomas has a sore shoulder (probable).Pittsburgh is rested after their bye week, but still lists T Mathias Nkwenti as out (back), while T Marvel Smith is doubtful due to his shoulder injury.

Pittsburgh is fighting to get their offense out of neutral, while the Rams defense is starting to fuse into a very tough run D. Advantage, St. Louis.

San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson vs. The Miami Defense (Tough Matchup)

26/200/1 – that’s what LaDainian Tomlinson did to the Cleveland Browns last week. He absolutely dominated the entire game (Drew Brees only threw for 74 yards on the day and the Chargers won 26-20). It helped move Tomlinson back into the top 10 among all fantasy backs in average FP per game during the past 3 weeks (he had that horrible game vs. Jacksonville week 5). This year the Chargers average 5.4 yards per carry as a team (154/836 yards) so the OL is doing their part, generally speaking.

Miami is getting back to top form on the defensive side of the ball: week 7 vs. New England they allowed 29/59/0; while in week 6 vs. Jacksonville they limited the Jags to 30/88/1. Miami is the top rush defense in the league, averaging only 68.8 rushing yards allowed per game (1^st in the NFL) and they have given up 2 rushing scores all year (tied for 1^st in the NFL). They are flat-out stout in this phase of the game.

Both teams are in relatively good health for this matchup – DT’s Larry Chester (neck/shoulder – questionable) and Tim Bowens (hand – probable) show up, as doe LB’s Junior Seau (hamstring, probable) and Zach Thomas (calf, probable). Jason Taylor is probable for action despite his sore elbow. C Jason Ball is questionable due to an ankle injury.

Qualcomm Stadium expects a high of 71F and a low of 58F with a 10% chance of precipitation on Monday – just about perfect weather for a football game.

Tomlinson is a top back, playing at home. Miami is the top rush D in the league, on the road. He’s probably a must start for most teams but it’s still a tough, almost bad matchup.

Tampa Bay’s Michael Pittman vs. The Dallas Defense (Tough Matchup)

Michael Pittman was frustrated in week 7 by San Francisco – he had 6/29/0 rushing and 10/60/0 receiving in the loss. Over the past 3 weeks, Pittman has compiled 39/197/0 rushing and 17/128/0 receiving – he’s getting decent yardage totals each week, but the lack of scoring is depressing his fantasy value (24^th among all fantasy backs in FP per week during that span).

Dallas handled Detroit last week (21/83/0), but struggled week 6 vs. Philly’s tandem of backs, and coughed up 31/122/2. It’s fair to say they’ve been inconsistent in this phase of the game recently. For 2003, the Cowboys rank as the 2^nd best rush D in the land, allowing only 74.8 yards per game, with only 3 TD’s allowed all season – the game vs. Philadelphia sticks out as atypically bad, to be sure.

Both teams are in relatively good health coming into the game.

This game is happening in Raymond James Stadium – the forecast calls for a high of 84F and a low of 68F with a 10% chance of precipitation. That sounds like perfect football weather to us.

Pittman and company have been struggling to make good things happen on a regular basis in recent weeks – expect him to find the going rough against the top-shelf Dallas defense.

Tennessee’s Eddie George / Robert Holcombe vs. The Jacksonville Defense (Bad Matchup)

Tennessee as a team managed a 100+ yard outing last week – Robert Holcombe (16/53/0 and 1/3/0) and Eddie George (18/51/0) combined to turn the trick last week vs. the Panthers. However, the running backs are not generating much in the way of fantasy points over the past 3 weeks (George ranks 44^th in the league in FP in that span, while Holcombe is 45^th), so there just isn’t much to get excited about from a fantasy owner’s point of view about this RBBC.

Jacksonville cooled their heels last week – in week 6 vs. Miami they allowed 24/91/1; and they smothered LaDainian Tomlinson in week 5 holding him to 10/38/0 (team 13/69/0). That’s some stout play against two top running backs, folks. This season, the Jags are the 4^th best rush D in the league, averaging only 84.7 yards per game this season, though they have allowed 6 rushing scores in ’03. They are definitely doing a good job vs. the opposition in this phase.

Jacksonville is healthy and ready to play, for the most part – LB Keith Mitchell has a sore neck (questionable). Tennessee is also in fairly good shape (backup RB Chris Brown is questionable due to a lingering hamstring injury)– injuries aren’t a big concern in this matchup.

Tennessee sports a weak attack, while the Jags are a strong rushing defense. This is a bad week to start a Titan back.