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Week 9 Rushing Matchups

By Mark Wimer with Joe Bryant

Bye Weeks:

Buffalo's Travis Henry is on bye.
Cleveland's William Green is on bye.
Tennessee's Eddie George/Robert Holcombe are on bye.
Kansas City's Priest Holmes is on bye.

New York Giants' Tiki Barber vs. The New York Jets Defense (Great Matchup)

Tiki Barber's numbers from last Sunday: 20/75/1 rushing with 5/47/0 receiving in the victory over Minnesota. He has been a very solid start in most leagues of late, with 61/225/1 rushing and 18/129/0 receiving (he is only mediocre in a basic-scoring league) during the past 3 weeks. As a team, the Giants have amassed 191/747 yards this season (a respectable 3.9 ypc), good enough for 18th in the league in terms of total yards rushing.

The Jets are pathetic in this phase of the game: vs. Philadelphia week 8 they allowed 34/192 and 2 TD's, while in week 7 vs. Houston the Jets coughed up 36/169 and 2 TD's. Not surprisingly, the Jets are 31st in the league allowing an average of 158.9 rushing yards per game, with 8 rushing scores allowed so far. DE John Abraham was a stud IDP DL player last week, with 5 solo tackles, 3 assists, and 3.5 sacks (best DL starter last week).

However, Abraham sustained a groin injury in the last game that will keep him out of this game, and starting LB Mo Lewis may be sidelined as well due to hip/back pain (questionable). The Giants managed to not lose any more offensive linemen last week, and T Luke Petitgout is probable to play despite his sore foot.

The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 69F and a low of 52F with a 20% chance for rain. It should be a fine day to run the football up and down the field.

The Jets are already bad at defending the run, and come into this game down one, and possibly two starters to boot. Barber and company should have plenty of room to roam this weekend.

Philadelphia's Correll Buckhalter / Duce Staley vs. The Atlanta Defense (Great Matchup)

Last week, Brian Westbrook went down with a high ankle sprain, which may keep him sidelined for several weeks - it looks almost positive that he will be on the sidelines this weekend (all indications from Philadelphia point that way at midweek). Thus, Correll Buckhalter and Duce Staley will need to carry the load this weekend. Buckhalter had a great game in relief of Westbrook last week (15/100/2 rushing), and Staley chipped in too (9/47/0 rushing). This season, Buckhalter has amassed 44/199/4 rushing and 2/23/0 receiving (a very robust 4.4 ypc average rushing the ball), so he has been able to get the job done when given a chance. It looks like he'll start the game vs. Atlanta.

New Orleans racked up 36/165/3 rushing in week 7, and the Rams 39/119/1 in the game week 6 - Atlanta hasn't been able to stop anybody, lately. In fact, DC Wade Phillips has benched the entire secondary in an attempt to shake up the defense - sending a signal that play better improve, or more changes are on the way. Unfortunately, due to injuries, there just aren't that many changes he can make along the defensive front (LB's Sam Rogers and Will Overstreet are on IR, and Keith Brooking is sidelined indefinitely with a back injury). The Falcons are 30th in the league averaging 149.7 rushing yards allowed per game, and have coughed up a league-worst 12 rushing TD's this season. It's ugly, no doubt about that.

Philadelphia is listing Westbrook as out on the injury report, while Atlanta (despite coming off a bye week) reports LB Keith Brooking as questionable and DE Brady Smith (ankle) as questionable.

This game is being played in the Georgia Dome, so weather is not a factor.

Atlanta is terrible at run defense, while the Eagles have been coming on in this phase lately, regardless of which back starts (or ends up with the most carries) in any given game - Advantage, Philadelphia.

Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman vs. The New Orleans Defense (Great Matchup)

Tampa's Michael Pittman was excellent in the game vs. Dallas, putting up 30/113/0 rushing (1/4/0 receiving) and helped his team control the clock to grind out the victory. He has been a steady-if-unspectacular producer ever since being named the team's starter (53/204/0 rushing and 14/97/0 receiving over the past 3 games). As a team, the Buccaneers have amassed 197/728 yards this season (a 3.7 ypc average).

New Orleans was ground into the dust by the Panthers last week, allowing a whopping 39/223/2 to Stephen Davis (31/178/2) and friends. In week 7, they were less of a door-mat, but not by much, lying down for 22/130/1 vs. the anemic Falcons. This season, they are among the league's worst at defending the run, allowing an average of 138.6 yards per game in this phase (28th in the league) with 7 rushing scores allowed. Charles Grant was among the best IDP DL last week, with 7 solo tackles, 1 sack, and 2 passes defensed (3rd best DL last week).

New Orleans continues to miss starting DE Darren Howard (wrist - out), but starting LB Sedrick Hodge may be back (knee - probable). Starting DT Grady Jackson was suspended for one game for "conduct detrimental to the team" after he angered coach Haslett by refusing to play due to a torn ligament in his left pinkie. The ligament was surgically re-attached this week. Also listed this week for the Saints were LB James Allen (knee) and DT's Jonathan Sullivan (calf) and DT Kenny Smith (knee) - Allen and Sullivan are questionable, while Smith is probable. Tampa Bay's starting lineup comes into the game in relatively good health, G Jason Whittle (shoulder) and Pittman (hamstring) are probable to play.

The forecast for Raymond James Stadium calls for a high of 85F and a low of 68F with a 20% chance for rain. It should be a great day to play football.

Michael Pittman has been steadily productive in recent weeks, while the Saints have been blown out in this phase of the game all year. Advantage, Tampa.

Arizona's Marcel Shipp vs. The Cincinnati Defense (Good Matchup)

Marcel Shipp is definitely getting comfortable as the team's featured running back again - all he did vs. San Francisco was rush for 35/165/0 (a 4.7 ypc average) - the 49ers didn't slow him down until he was well past the line of scrimmage for the better part of the game. Over the past 3 weeks, Shipp has put up 49/226/0 rushing and 7/51/0 receiving in only 2 games - he's the 11th best fantasy back in FP per game during that span. Not too shabby.

Cincinnati allowed 24/121/0 to the Seahawks' rushers last week, and 28/120/1 to Jamal Lewis and company 2 weeks ago, so they have been soft in this phase lately. Cincinnati fields the league's 23rd ranked rush D, averaging 120.9 yards allowed per game, with 6 scores surrendered so far this season, so they are performing right in line with their season average right now - not too good. Brian Simmons was a monster IDP LB last week, with 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery and 2 passes defensed last week (5th best fantasy LB last week).

Both teams come into this game relatively healthy.

The forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 76F and a low of 55F with a 30% chance for rain. If the rain comes down hard at game time, the field could get sloppy and slow, especially since it saw 2 pro games last week on consecutive days.

Shipp and company are actually playing very well in the recent past, while the Bengals are vulnerable in the rushing phase right now (and have been all year). Advantage, Cardinals.

Atlanta's T.J. Duckett / Warrick Dunn vs. The Philadelphia Defense (Good Matchup)

In the most recent game, T.J. Duckett got the start, and the lion's share of the carries (14/42/0), but Warrick Dunn scored the most FP (6/82/1 rushing, with 2/8/0 receiving). Over the last two games played, Dunn has racked up 11/105/1 rushing with 5/26/0 receiving (27th among all fantasy backs in FP per game), while Duckett has managed 30/92/0 rushing and 1/7/0 receiving (48th). With Kurt Kittner under center, though, Dunn's chances to catch a lot of balls in the passing phase have diminished (Kittner completed 9/29 passes in the game vs. New Orleans).

Philadelphia's defense has been less than impressive in this phase in recent weeks, allowing 24/125/1 to the Jets' stable of backs last week and 41/180/0 to the Giants' squad two weeks ago. This season, the Eagles are the league's 7th ranked rush defense, allowing only 92.3 rushing yards per game on average, with 4 TD's given away so far on the ground. As you can see, they have been performing significantly worse than that average would indicate in recent weeks. They are heading in the wrong direction in the rushing phase right now. The Eagles' DL just keeps taking more hits as the weeks go by - in the last game, Hollis Thomas tore his biceps tendon, ending his season. Backup DL Jerome McDougle still has yet to play a snap in regular season due to his never-ending high ankle sprain. To replace Thomas, the Eagles have signed DT Jim Flanigan, most recently with the 49ers (who cut him in August). Thomas joins DL Paul Grasmanis (torn left Achilles), defensive ends Derrick Burges!
s (torn Achilles) and Jamaal Green
This game is being played in the Georgia Dome, so weather is not a factor.

Against the wounded Eagles, Duckett and Dunn stand a decent chance for a nice game - just remember that Dunn's chances to break a big gainer may be limited thanks to a less-than-impressive aerial attack.

Baltimore's Jamal Lewis vs. The Jacksonville Defense (Good Matchup)

Jamal Lewis just keeps on pounding the football down the opposition's collective throat - last week, Denver was the team gagging on the football, allowing him to rack up 32/134/1 rushing (3/28/0 receiving). The team is tops in the league rushing the football this year, with 236/1269 yards (a stellar 5.4 ypc average) - Lewis is at #10 among all fantasy running backs over the past 3 weeks in FP per game, with 72/366/1 rushing and 4/36/0 receiving. He is getting tons of yardage, but the team's low-scoring style is hampering his fantasy potential a bit right now.

Jacksonville allowed 38/133/2 to Tennessee's unimpressive tandem of Eddie George and Robert Holcombe in week 8, and 24/91/1 to Miami week 6 in this phase, so they have been rather porous of late. The D currently ranks as the 6th best unit in the NFL at defending the rush, allowing an average of 91.6 yards per game (with 8 rushing scores allowed this year, though - towards the bottom of the NFL pack) - the Tennessee game sticks out as an unusually poor performance.

The Ravens list Jamal Lewis as probable to play despite a sore shoulder. Jacksonville released LB T.J. Slaughter on Tuesday following his arrest for threatening two motorists with a gun. They also list DE Lionel Barnes (calf - out) and LB Keith Mitchell (neck - questionable).

The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 72F and a low of 56F with a 20% chance for rain. That's just about ideal football weather, if the rain holds off.

Lewis sees tons of carries every game, and he makes good things happen with his chances more often than not. Jacksonville plays solid defense in this phase of the game, but will be sorely tested by Lewis on his home field - and the Jaguars have stumbled in recent weeks. Advantage, Baltimore.

Carolina's Stephen Davis vs. The Houston Defense (Good Matchup)

The Panthers went back to Plan A last week, and Stephen Davis set career and Panthers' franchise records with 31 rushes for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns against the hapless Saints' defensive front. In fact, the Panthers as a team went over 200 yards rushing on the day (39/223/2, to be exact) - it was total domination in the rushing phase last Sunday. When he gets a head of steam up, Davis sheds tacklers with ease.

Houston has not exactly been stout defending the run lately, allowing 27/122/0 to the Colts last week, and 27/136/1 to the Jets two weeks ago. The team ranks 20th in the NFL allowing an average of 117 rushing yards per contest (with 7 rushing scores allowed to date in 2003). Look for that average to go up once Stephen Davis is done with this middling defense.

Carolina's squad comes into this game with backup FB Nick Goings (concussion) questionable, while the Texans list starting DE Gary Walker (toe - doubtful) and starting LB Charlie Clemons (ankle - questionable) on the initial injury report.

The forecast for Reliant Stadium calls for a high of 81F and a low of 65F with a 20% chance for rain. That's just about perfect football weather.

Houston is outmatched by the Panther's great offensive line and star running back. Advantage, Carolina.

Detroit's Olandis Gary / Shawn Bryson vs. The Oakland Defense (Good Matchup)

Detroit can't seem to muster more than 90 yards rushing per game as a team this year, having checked in at 23/86/0 vs. Chicago last week; they managed 21/83/0 vs. Dallas, and amassed 20/84/1 vs. San Francisco the game before that. There just isn't much to get excited about here folks. Bryson checks in at 41st in FP per game on the fantasy RB list for the last 3 weeks, with 20/87/0 rushing and 6/30/0 receiving in 2 games. Olandis Gary has been an even worse fantasy play in that span, with 19/55/0 and 1/5/0.

Oakland's rushing defense is pathetic in 2003. They are dead last in the NFL, allowing an average of 159 yards per game, with 9 rushing TD's surrendered so far. K.C. put up 31/125/2 vs. this group week 7, while William Green and the Browns fared about the same, with 32/171/1 in their matchup.

Oakland is coming off a bye, so their unit should be in relatively good health (but it isn't) - DT John Parrella (groin) and DE Sam Williams (knee) are both doubtful, while DT Dana Stubblefield (ankle) and LB Eric Barton (shoulder) are questionable. Detroit says T Victor Rogers is doubtful due to his sore back.

This game is being played at Ford Field, so weather won't be a factor.

This one is a battle of a flaccid attack vs. a turnstile defense - not real pretty. We have a hard time promoting any Lion running back but if you've been dying to play Bryson or Gary, it likely won't get much better than this.

Houston's Domanick Davis vs. The Carolina Defense (Good Matchup)

Over the past 3 games, Domanick Davis has racked up 59/297/2 rushing and 23/167/0 receiving (4th best fantasy running back in FP scored during that span) - think coach Capers was right to insert him into the starting lineup? The youngster is running with patience and explosiveness, hitting holes with authority and catching just about everything thrown his way. Domanick Davis will be the best waiver wire acquisition of the year if he can keep up this pace.

Carolina has been up and down in this phase recently, limiting Deuce McAllister to 26/101/0 rushing (and 3/32/0 receiving) last week. However, during week 7 the Tennessee tandem of George/Holcombe put up 36/134/1 in the Titan's blowout victory. The Panthers currently rank in the middle of the NFL pack in rushing yards allowed per game, with 106.9 on average (14th), but they are tied for first in TD's allowed, with only 3 scores surrendered in this phase to date. Mike Rucker was the 5th best IDP DL last week, with 5 solo tackles and 2 sacks.

Both units come into this game with a few injury problems. The Panthers may be without starting MLB Dan Morgan, thanks to his second concussion in as many weeks, and fellow LB's Brian Allen (groin) and Mike Caldwell (hamstring) are also questionable. Starting DT Brentson Buckner has struggled to play through a gimpy knee in recent weeks (probable), and DT Shane Burton has a sore groin (probable). DE Kemp Rasmussen (neck) is questionable, while DE Al Wallace is probable (wrist). Houston's starting OG Milford Brown hasn't been able to play in the recent past (knee), but isn't on the injury report.

The forecast for Reliant Stadium calls for a high of 81F and a low of 65F with a 20% chance for rain. That's just about perfect football weather.

Davis is proving to be a very valuable fantasy back, and he should rack up a respectable amount of yardage this week against a middle-of-the-road Panther's defense missing some key players. Just don't expect an explosion of scoring and you won't be disappointed.

Miami's Ricky Williams vs. The Indianapolis Defense (Good Matchup)

Williams managed only 23/69/0 rushing and 5/26/0 receiving vs. San Diego on Monday Night Football this past week - hardly numbers to get really excited about. Despite an improved aerial attack, compliments of Brian Griese, Williams never got rolling last Sunday - which has been the story for him in recent weeks. Over the past 3 weeks, Williams is the 21st ranked fantasy back in terms of FP per game, with 69/238/1 rushing and 7/35/0 receiving in 3 games. His 3.44 ypc average is very poor, considering that the team is averaging 3.8 ypc this season (220/842 yards). However, Williams has done well vs. the Colts in the past, with 252 rushing yards and 110 receiving yards in 2 games against the team.

Indianapolis was trampled by Houston's Domanick Davis and company last week (28/131/2), and the Panthers beat them about the head and shoulders to the tune of 41/189/1 in week 6 - the Colts aren't slowing people down in this phase of the game right now. They rank near the bottom of the NFL in terms of rushing yards allowed per game (27th-ranked surrendering 131 yards per game on average) - they had been hard to score on in the early going this season (only 4 TD's allowed all year), but that seems to be changing in recent weeks.

Indianapolis has missed backup LB Jim Nelson in recent weeks (clavicle - out), and DT Montae Raegor is doubtful with a chest injury. Miami's unit is in good shape coming into the game, although Mark Dixon still can't play (ankle - out), while T Wade Smith (ankle) and FB Rob Konrad (knee) are probable to go.

The forecast for Pro Player Stadium calls for a high of 86F and a low of 71F with a 30% chance for rain. If the rain comes down hard, footing and ball handling could be an issue.

Williams has been under-performing in recent weeks, but the soft Colts' defensive front should help him return to better fantasy production this week. Advantage, Miami.

Minnesota's Moe Williams / Onterrio Smith / Michael Bennett vs. The Green Bay Defense (Good Matchup)

Minnesota welcomes back starter Michael Bennett to the lineup this week (barring any set-backs with his foot later in the week), but he is expected to just dip his toes into the water with a few carries this week. Onterrio Smith and Moe Williams will be asked to do most of the heavy lifting again this week - Smith saw 16/61/1 rushing and 1/17/0 in the team's 2 most recent games, while Moe Williams has racked up 25/111/0 rushing and 6/69/1 receiving during that span. Both backs got 11 carries in the loss to the Giants (32 yards for Smith, 69 yards for Williams in that game). Minnesota has one of the best rushing attacks in the league as a team, with 215/960 yards (a 4.5 ypc average), good for 7th in the NFL - only 13 yards behind Green Bay at #6. In week 1, Minnesota ran for 36/154/0 as a team (Smith didn't touch the ball in that early game, but Moe Williams had 22/80/0, and Culpepper chipped in 50 rushing yards, too).

Green Bay has been in the middle of the NFL pack defending the run this year, currently 16th in the league allowing an average of 116.1 rushing yards per game, with 6 rushing scores allowed all season. The Rams put up 27/131/1 against them in week 7, while Priest Holmes and company hit them up for 26/82/1 in week 6 - they have bounced around their season average in recent weeks. The Packers are neither great nor pathetic in this phase of the game.

Green Bay comes out of the bye week in good health - DT Rod Walker's knee is sore (questionable). Minnesota's squad is getting healthier, not worse, coming into this game - injuries aren't a big factor in the matchup.

This one is in the Metrodome, so weather won't be a factor.

Minnesota is very good at running the ball, while Green Bay is only mediocre at rush defense. The advantage flows to the home team in this one.

New England's Kevin Faulk / Antowain Smith / Mike Cloud vs. The Denver Defense (Good Matchup)

Here's the story from New England this week:

Running back Mike Cloud was inactive Sunday. Antowain Smith, Kevin Faulk and Patrick Pass were the active tailbacks. "All three backs (Smith, Faulk and Cloud) have been productive," said coach Bill Belichick, "and I think they'll continue to be used game to game. There's no set formula. It's based on what we think the best combination is." (Providence Journal article, by Tom Curran, 10/28/03).

In this RBBC, it seems clear that Kevin Faulk is the primary ball-carrier from week to week (when he is healthy), with Cloud and Smith being used in situational roles as the coaching staff finds match-ups they'd like to exploit from week to week. The statistics bear this out, with Faulk at #23 among all fantasy backs in FP per game over the last 3 weeks (3 games for 55/221/0 rushing and 12/95/0 receiving); Cloud at #49 (2 games for 14/31/1 rushing); and Smith at #95 during that span (1 game for 3/9/0 rushing). As the team has reeled off 4 straight W's with that formula, don't expect Belichick to change anything in the near future. Last week, Faulk had an impressive day - 23/96 yards rushing and 6/58 yards receiving in the victory over Cleveland (0 scores, though).

Denver was punctured by Jamal Lewis and company for 37/151/1 last week, and the second of their trio of starting LB's went down - John Mobley suffered a scary spinal cord injury that is likely to sideline him this week, and may even end his career. That leaves Al Wilson as the lone top-shelf LB in the middle of the Denver defensive scheme - a scheme built around the LB's. Two weeks ago, Minnesota managed 22/71/1 against this unit. However, given the personnel challenges the Broncos face at the moment, they aren't anywhere near the top-10 D averaging 99.5 rushing yards allowed per game (with only 4 rushing scores surrendered in 2003) that they were just a few weeks ago.

Besides Mobley, the Broncos list LB Keith Burns (knee) and DT Daryl Gardener (wrist) as probable to play. The Patriots report G Joe Andruzzi (shoulder) as questionable.

The forecast for Mile-High Stadium calls for a high of 49F and a low of 27F with a 30% chance for precipitation. As this is a Monday Night game, any precipitation would likely be sleet or snow - footing and ball-handling could become issues in this game. However, keep in mind both teams are cold-weather franchises with experience handling the elements.

Faulk is coming on strong, while the Broncos are reeling due to another tough loss among their LB corps - advantage, New England.

San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs. The Chicago Defense (Good Matchup)

LaDainian Tomlinson came back down to earth after his 200 yard romp against the Browns, and managed to grind out a hard-fought 24/62/0 vs. the Miami defensive front (with 11/80/0 receiving). He still gave his fantasy owners a productive outing, but it wasn't a game-breaker type effort this week. However, Tomlinson remains among the most desirable fantasy backs in the league, with 50/262/2 rushing and 14/101/0 receiving in his most recent 2 games (tops among fantasy backs in FP per game over the past 3 weeks). His team fields the 8th most potent rushing attack in the NFL, with 185/940 yards and a ypc of 5.1.

Chicago's rush defense is very generous in 2003, allowing an average of 144.3 rushing yards per game (with 8 rushing scores surrendered so far this year). Two weeks ago Shaun Alexander and company hit them up for 28/124/2 on the ground, and last week Detroit's anemic stable managed 23/86/0. Some key guys may return from injury this week, so the D may get healthy in a hurry if the walking wounded are actually ready for action again.

Warrick Holdman (ankle) and Keith Traylor (knee) are two guys the Bears hope to have back in the lineup, both are questionable while DE Philip Daniels is probable despite his sore toe. Meanwhile, San Diego listed C's Cory Raymer (knee - probable) and Jason Bell (ankle - questionable).

The forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 53F and a low of 43F with a 20% chance for rain. Sounds like a nice autumn day to play a football game is on tap.

Tomlinson is an awesome back who gets a lot of touches every game. Chicago has struggled in this phase so far in 2003, and they will have some key players struggling to get their timing back on the field this week (if they are lucky, that is). Advantage, San Diego.

Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs. The Pittsburgh Defense (Good Matchup)

Shaun Alexander did his part vs. Cincinnati last week, with 20/86/0 rushing and 7/52/1 receiving in the losing effort. Over the past 3 weeks, Alexander ranks as the 5th best fantasy RB in the land, with 63/264/2 rushing and 14/119/1 receiving during that span. He's pretty hot.

Pittsburgh gave up 37/89/3 to the Rams last week - and they were starting a 3rd string, undrafted rookie named Arlen Harris. In week 6, they did manage to contain Clinton Portis and company (18/77/0), and overall this season the Steelers are 5th in the NFL in average rushing yards per game allowed (90.6), with 8 TD's given up so far. Joey Porter was the 3rd best IDP LB last week, with 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 sacks and 1 pass defensed.

Pittsburgh is fairly healthy at this stage of the year, as is Seattle. Injuries aren't a factor here.

The forecast for Seahawks' Stadium calls for a high of 45F and a low of 30F with a 30% chance for rain. If it is closer to 30F than 40F at game time, and raining, the field will get slick and the ball will be harder to handle, too.

Pittsburgh usually plays the run tough, but they were shown to be vulnerable by the Rams' third-stringer last week. Alexander has been red-hot lately - in his own house, we give the nod to Alexander and Seattle.

Chicago's Anthony Thomas / Adrian Peterson / Brock Forsey vs. The San Diego Defense (Neutral Matchup)

The early reports out of Chicago indicate that Anthony Thomas is optimistic about his chances to return to the starting lineup this week. In his and Peterson's absence, Brock Forsey managed to help the Bears to notch a "W" with his 19/56/1 rushing and 1/10/0 receiving effort last Sunday. Thomas has put up 72/397/1 so far this season (5.5 ypc average) - he is definitely returning to his rookie-season form (at least, he was before the most recent injury).

San Diego's defense started out poorly this year, currently allowing an average of 129.3 rushing yards per game, 25th in the NFL (they have given away 6 rushing scores so far). However, last week Miami only managed 27/81/0 against the Chargers, and they held to Browns to 22/101/0 in week 7 - they have improved on their season average in recent weeks, obviously.

Thomas and Peterson are both questionable to play this week. San Diego is in relatively good health at this point.

The forecast for Soldier Field calls for a high of 53F and a low of 43F with a 20% chance for rain. Sounds like a nice autumn day to play a football game is on tap.

Chicago has actually slapped down some impressive rushing statistics this season, while the Chargers have improved from sub-par to fairly stout in this phase in recent weeks. Look for the Bears to challenge the Chargers with a lot of rushes this weekend - it looks like an even matchup to us before the fact.

Cincinnati's Corey Dillon vs. The Arizona Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Unless Corey Dillon has another traffic incident on his way to this game, we expect to see Dillon actually play in the game this week. Got to hand it to the guy, though, he has good taste in vintage cars (a 1963 Impala -Too bad he bounced it off a guard rail on the interstate). The team did just fine without him last week, racking up 33/180/1 rushing on the day (Rudi Johnson had a nice day with 27/101/1; WR Peter Warrick gained 50 yards on one rushing play). Cincinnati had been struggling in Dillon's absence, up until last week, and is currently the league's 29th ranked rushing attack, with 194/623 yards this season (a 3.2 ypc average - way too low).

Arizona has played against some fine rushing attacks lately - Baltimore is tops in the league, and San Francisco is 4th in the NFL in total yardage - and they held their own - Jamal Lewis rang up 21/131/0 (and the team 38/213/0), but the Ravens had to settle for 4 field goals on offense (the 2 TD's came via the D). San Francisco put up 27/106/1, but lost the game in OT. On the season, the Cardinals are the 18th ranked rushing D allowing an average of 115.9 rushing yards per game, but they are tough in the red-zone, with only 5 rushing scores surrendered all year. Calvin Pace was a top IDP DL last week, with 6 solo tackles, 1 sack and 1 fumble recovery (4th best fantasy DL last week).

Arizona lists reserve DL Derrick Ransom as probable for the game on Sunday. Cincinnati has reserve OL Matt O'Dwyer down as probable with his foot injury, while Dillon (groin) and Brandon Bennett (back) are questionable on the initial injury report. Injuries aren't a major factor in this matchup, unless Dillon can't go.

The forecast for Sun Devil Stadium calls for a high of 76F and a low of 55F with a 30% chance for rain. If the rain comes down hard at game time, the field could get sloppy and slow, especially since it saw 2 pro games last week on consecutive days.

Dillon and the Bengals have started to win games, and their rushing attack seems to finally be getting on track, Dillon or no Dillon. Arizona gives up yardage, but is tough to score on this season. This looks like an even matchup from where we stand.

Dallas' Troy Hambrick / Aveion Cason vs. The Washington Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Troy Hambrick didn't get the job done vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, rushing for 25 yards on 11 carries (2.3 ypc average), with one reception for 11 yards. Nobody else in the stable had much luck either, and the team ended up with 22/60/0 on the day in this phase. Hambrick has been up and down in recent weeks with 53/145/2 rushing and 5/40/0 receiving in 3 games (24th among all fantasy RB's in FP per game over that span). For the season, the Cowboys mount the 12th best rushing attack in the league, with 238/868 yards (a low 3.6 ypc average).

Washington comes into this game off a bye week, having dropped 2 straight before their break. In those games, Travis Henry and company nuked the Redskins for 39/196/2 in week 7, while Michael Pittman and company enjoyed good success with 25/111/0 during the game week 6. Washington is currently ranked as the 21st rush D in the league, allowing an average of 117.9 yards per contest, with 6 rushing scores surrendered so far this year.

The Redskins enjoy relatively good health after their off-week, with DT Martin Chase (calf) and DT Jermaine Haley (hand) listed as questionable . Dallas' Larry Allen had trouble with his balky knee in the game vs. Tampa last week, and C Gennaro DiNapoli (ankle) is out this week, while RB Richie Anderson is questionable with a back injury.

The forecast for Texas Stadium calls for a high of 83F and a low of 62F with a 20% chance for rain. That's very good weather for a football game.

The Cowboys are a mediocre squad at running the ball, while the Redskins tend to be soft against the rush. Sounds like an even matchup between two sub-par units to us.

Green Bay's Ahman Green vs. The Minnesota Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Ahman Green struggled to run the ball against the Rams in week 7 (20/35/0), but led the Packers in receiving with 6/62/1 during the game. In his last two games, Green has put up 46/174/1 rushing, with 12/113/2 receiving - he's found ways to be productive, whether it be on hand-offs, or quick dump passes (3rd best RB in FP per game over the last 3 weeks). Najeh Davenport has supplemented Green's efforts nicely in recent weeks, with 1 TD in each of the last two games (11/117/2 rushing with 1/10/0 receiving) - he busted a big 74 yard run to earn one of those scores. The Packers own the 6th best rush attack in the NFL, with 198/973 yards (a robust 4.9 ypc average) - their OL sure knows how to run-block. This game is crucial to both teams, so the intensity level should be sky-high - and Green Bay has the advantage of coming off a bye week (but the disadvantage of playing in the unfriendly environs of the Metrodome). In their last meeting, Green put up over 100 combined yards and !
2 scores (15/53/2 rushing and 7/62/
Minnesota has been stout vs. the run this season, ranking 9th in the league allowing only 98.4 rushing yards per contest (with 6 rushing scores surrendered so far in 2003). In their last two games, the Vikings allowed 28/83/1 to Tiki Barber and company last week, and 27/138/1 to Clinton Portis' Broncos in week 7. Their defense's play is in line with their season average (if a little to one side or another) in recent weeks.

Both teams come into this game in good health on their starting team. Reserve LB Raonall Smith missed the last game for the Vikings due to his injured hamstring, and is listed as doubtful this week. RB's Tony Fisher (groin) and Nicholas Luchey are banged up (questionable and probable, respectively).

This one is in the Metrodome, so weather won't be a factor.

Green and company are some of the best in the business, while Minnesota is no slouch at defending against the run. The division rivalry is intense, and the play between these evenly matched squads will be intense too - this is a pretty even matchup.

New York Jets' Curtis Martin / LaMont Jordan vs. The New York Giants' Defense (Neutral Matchup)

One thing can be definitively said about the Jets - their rushing attack is finally on it's way back to health. Although the team is dead last in the NFL this season rushing the ball (only 592 yards gained so far, with a 3.7 ypc average), Curtis Martin has come alive in recent games, with 20/110/0 last week, and 57/275/0 in the most recent 3 games this year. LaMont Jordan plunged in the teams' score last week in limited duty (3/6/1 rushing and 1/12/0 receiving). It's not the world's most electrifying ground game, but at least the numbers are becoming respectable.

The Giants have been adequate at defending against opposing rushers recently, allowing 28/137/0 to Minnesota last week, and 23/87/1 to Philadelphia two weeks ago. They currently sport the league's 15th ranked rushing D, allowing an average of 108.3 yards per game, and have only given up 5 rushing scores all season. Michael Strahan was an IDP monster last week, with 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 sacks and 1 pass defensed - good for 2nd best among fantasy DL. Strahan has absolutely been on fire recently, with 15 tackles, 1 assist, 6 sacks, 1 forced fumble and 2 passes defensed in the last 3 games (tops among all fantasy DL).

The Giant's starting LDT Cornelius Griffen injured his right ankle last week (questionable), while DE Kenny Holmes is probable to play (knee). The Jets continue to enjoy good health among their offensive linemen and running backs.

The forecast for Giants' Stadium calls for a high of 69F and a low of 52F with a 20% chance for rain. It should be a fine day to run the football up and down the field.

Two middle-of-the-road units lock horns in this game - neither looks like it will dominate the other.

Oakland's Charlie Garner / Tyrone Wheatley / Zack Crockett vs. The Detroit Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Charlie Garner (10/32/0) and Tyrone Wheatley (5/32/0) each gained 32 yards against the Chiefs in week 7, but Zack Crockett got the lone TD (1/1/1). Nobody on this RBBC has generated much in the way of fantasy points in recent weeks, with Garner ranking 31st among all fantasy running backs in fantasy points per game over the last 3 weeks (19/60/0 rushing in 2 games, 17/122/0 receiving); Wheatley is 58th (8/47/0 and 1/20/0) while Crockett shows up at #57 (2/4/1 and 1/5/0).

Detroit's rushing defense is nothing to crow about, ranking 22nd in the NFL this season allowing an average of 120.7 rushing yards per game, with 6 rushing TD's given away so far. In week 8 they contained Chicago's third stringer, Brock Forsey, to 19/56/1 (26/68/1 rushing as a team for the Bears). The Cowboys managed 43/134/1 against them two weeks ago.

Oakland's OL is hurting: G Mo Collins (knee), T Lincoln Kennedy (calf), G Frank Middleton (quadriceps) and C Matt Stinchcomb (shoulder) are all questionable to play. Detroit's defensive front is ready to play.

This game is being played at Ford Field, so weather won't be a factor.

If Tuiasosopo can breathe some life into the Raider's passing attack, maybe the running backs will find a way to make something happen in their phase of the game. Against the mediocre Lions, the Raiders have a shot at rejuvenating their rushing attack, anyway.

Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis / Amos Zereoue vs. The Seattle Defense (Neutral Matchup)

In an attempt to jump-start the Pittsburgh rushing attack, coach Cowher named Jerome Bettis the starter again last week, and watched as his big back eked out 12/42/0 rushing against the surging Rams. Zereoue, in a much reduced third-down role, rushed for 2/6/0 and caught 2 passes for 14 yards. There just isn't much good happening in this phase for the Steelers in 2003 - they are the 31st ranked rushing attack in the NFL, with 179/594 yards (a paltry 3.3 ypc average).

Last week, Rudi Johnson and the Bengals rang up the Seahawks for 33/180/1 rushing, and in week 7 the Anthony Thomas-less Bears managed 28/87/1. From the perspective of the season so far, the Seahawks are the 17th ranked rushing D in the land, allowing an average of 115.4 yards per game, with 8 rushing scores given up in 2003. They are a mediocre-to-bad defense in this phase, from week to week.

The Steelers are going into the game without starting OT Marvel Smith (shoulder - doubtful). Seattle has injury problems of their own, with starting LB Chad Brown (foot -- questionable) and backup LB Tracey White (foot - out) missing out on the game. Starting LB Randall Godfrey also strained his neck in the game last week, but is to play this week.

The forecast for Seahawks' Stadium calls for a high of 45F and a low of 30F with a 30% chance for rain. If it is closer to 30F than 40F at game time, and raining, the field will get slick and the ball will be harder to handle, too.

Seattle plays mediocre rush defense at full-strength, and they may be well below full-strength in personnel on Sunday. The Steelers are a bottom-tier attack, with injury problems of their own on the OL. That sounds like an even matchup to us.

St. Louis' Marshall Faulk / Arlen Harris / Lamar Gordon vs. The San Francisco Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Last week, despite the lack of both Faulk and Gordon, the Rams punched in 3 rushing scores, cradled in the hands of undrafted rookie Arlen Harris (34/81/3). This week, long-suffering Marshall Faulk owners finally get to see him back on the field - the only question is, will Mike Martz let Faulk tote the ball 34 times (like he had Harris do last week), or will the head coach and staff once again begin to exhibit their inexplicable pattern of under-utilizing their star RB? The most carries Faulk received in one game this season was week 2, vs. San Francisco (18/57/1 rushing, with 4/33/0 receiving). Stay tuned to find out the answer.

San Francisco got stomped by Marcel Shipp and company last week - the Cardinals nuked the 49ers for 44/221/1 on the day. This, after the 49ers had frozen out the Buccaneers just one week earlier (14/68/0). Last week was highly unusual for this unit, which averages only 102 rushing yards per game allowed in 2003, and has only surrendered 5 rushing scores all year long.

Gordon is doubtful to play, Faulk is listed as questionable. DT Travis Kirschke (knee) is doubtful for SF, while DT Anthony Adams (toe) and Bryant Young (toe) are probable.

The forecast for 3COM Park calls for a high of 53F and a low of 42F with a 20% chance for rain. A nice, cool day to play a game of football is coming up by the Bay, if the forecast holds up.

Faulk has a shot at a decent day, but the 49ers will make him work for it. We'll see how much work the Rams give him on Sunday - we call the matchup neutral.

San Francisco's Garrison Hearst / Kevan Barlow vs. The St. Louis Defense (Neutral Matchup)

The Hearst / Barlow tandem managed only 23/62/0 rushing vs. the Cardinals last week - Hearst rushed 14/43/0 while Barlow eked out 9/19/ on the ground (4/26/0 receiving for Barlow, 1/25/0 for Hearst). It was a disappointing afternoon coming on the heels of the big win (and big day rushing the ball) vs. Tampa Bay. Over the past three weeks, Hearst is the 13th best fantasy back in FP per game, with 50/222/2 rushing and 5/67/0 receiving. Barlow is 43rd, with 33/134/0 rushing and 4/26/0 receiving. As a team, the 49ers are 4th in the league with 1101 yards rushing to their credit (a 4.4 ypc average). Last week was an atypically bad day for this unit.

Pittsburgh put up 18/94/0 vs. St. Louis last week, but 39 yards of that were via Hines Ward end-arounds - Jerome Bettis managed a mere 12/42/0 as the featured RB. In week 7, the Packers put up 26/116/1 - but once again, a big play inflated the statistics, with a single 76 yard run accounting for all but 40 yards gained on the ground that afternoon. Basically, running backs have really struggled to move the ball on the Rams lately. The club ranks 11th in the league allowing 101.7 rushing yards per game on average, but they have only surrendered 4 rushing scores in 2003. This is a tough run D, folks.

San Francisco will likely be without LT Derrick Deese (ankle - questionable), and lists C Jeremy Newberry (ankle) as probable. Saint Louis has injury problems, too - starting DE Leonard Little (chest - questionable) and DT Damione Lewis (ankle - doubtful) may not be able to go, while starting LB Tommy Polley is out due to his elbow injury. St. Louis has major injury issues right now.

The forecast for 3COM Park calls for a high of 53F and a low of 42F with a 20% chance for rain. A nice, cool day to play a game of football is coming up by the Bay, if the forecast holds up.

St. Louis has been tough on opposing backs in recent weeks, but they have major problems with injuries along the defensive front right now. San Francisco has a top attack, although they played poorly last week. .

Denver's Clinton Portis vs. The New England Defense (Tough Matchup)

Clinton Portis managed to go over 100 yards combined last week (20/86/0 rushing with 6/29/0 receiving (he led the team in receiving last week)), but he was clearly hampered by the lack of a complimentary passing attack - witness the lack of TDs for the Broncos last week (6 pts. on 2 Elam field goals). He's 14th among all backs in FP per game over the last 3 weeks with 62/250/1 rushing and 14/98/0 receiving - but he isn't able to generate top-5 numbers with limited opportunities to score in the diminished Bronco offense. Until Jake Plummer's foot is healed, the struggle to score is likely to continue with Danny Kanell is at the helm.

New England has allowed 19/84/0 to Cleveland in week 8, and 29/97/0 to Miami in week 7 - they are tough to score on in this phase recently. This season, the Patriots rank as the 4th best rush defense in the NFL, allowing only 89.8 yards per game on average (with 7 scores surrendered earlier in the year). They are tough to do much of anything on right now if you are an opposing back. LB Mike Vrabel returned to the lineup with a bang last week - he was the 2nd best fantasy LB in the game with 6 solo tackles, 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble and 1 pass defensed.

Starting T Ephraim Salaam is out for the Broncos due to his bum knee, and several others are on the injury report - RB Rueben Droughns (shoulder) and C Tom Nalen (ankle) are probable to play. New England has been battling through a host of injuries all season long, and lists: LB Ted Johnson and DT Ted Washington as out due to their broken legs; while LB Mike Vrabel (arm) is questionable and DT Richard Seymour (leg) is probable.

The forecast for Mile-High Stadium calls for a high of 49F and a low of 27F with a 30% chance for precipitation. As this is a Monday Night game, any precipitation would likely be sleet or snow - footing and ball-handling could become issues in this game. However, keep in mind both teams are cold-weather franchises with experience handling the elements.

Portis and company will fight to keep their playoff hopes alive, but he has a tough challenge in front of him in the Patriots on Monday Night Football.

Jacksonville's Fred Taylor vs. The Baltimore Defense (Tough Matchup)

Fred Taylor struggled against the top-shelf Titan's defensive front last week, managing a mere 9/48/0 rushing with 4/21/0 receiving last week. He also struggled against Miami in week 6, 16/35/0 rushing (with 8/64/0 receiving) - he just hasn't been able to burst loose lately. Those performances put him at 32nd among all fantasy running backs in FP per game over the last 3 weeks. As a team, the Jaguars have put up 175/666 yards this season (a 3.8 ypc average), good for 25th in the league in total rushing yards. He's definitely cold coming into this game.

Ray Lewis and the Ravens are not cold, coming off a 26-6 thrashing of the Broncos in which super-star running back Clinton Portis only managed to put up 22/86/0 rushing and 6/29/0 receiving on the day. Lewis was the 6th best fantasy LB last week, with 6 solo tackles, 4 assists, 1 sack and 2 passes defensed in the rout. Corey Dillon and company fared little better against the Ravens week 7, with 29/58/1 rushing as a team. Baltimore is now 8th in the league in terms of rushing yards allowed per game (94.6 on average), and is tied for the league lead with only 3 rushing scores allowed in the first half of the season. They are really getting a head of steam up at this point in the season.

Jacksonville enjoys good health on their squad, and the Ravens are also largely healthy (LB Bart Scott has a leg injury, but is probable to play). Injuries aren't a big factor in this matchup

The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium calls for a high of 72F and a low of 56F with a 20% chance for rain. That's just about ideal football weather, if the rain holds off.

Taylor and company have a hard time moving the ball against top-shelf rushing defenses, and the Ravens definitely qualify as one of those. Advantage, Baltimore.

New Orleans' Deuce McAllister vs. The Tampa Bay Defense (Tough Matchup)

Deuce McAllister was reliably productive in the game against Carolina, racking up 26/101/0 rushing and 3/32/0 receiving. He has definitely hit his stride in recent weeks, totaling 76/333/2 rushing and 6/46/0 receiving in the last 3 games. As a team, the Saints are in the league's top 10 rushing the ball, with 221/937 yards - that yields a solid 4.2 yards per carry average.

Tampa Bay avenged their embarrassment over the 212-rushing-yards-allowed-debacle against San Francisco by stuffing the Cowboys last Sunday (22/60/0 as a team). In what has become a hallmark of this squad's 2003 season, they were very "up" in the wake of their humiliating performance vs. the 49ers. The roller-coaster nature of their season is apparent in the statistics - overall, the Bucs are the 13th ranked rushing D this year, allowing an average of 105.0 rushing yards per game, with 5 rushing scores surrendered to date. When they are at the top of their game, these guys are very tough - but they haven't consistently performed at peak levels in the first half of the season.

This week, Tampa should be in good shape among the defensive front seven, plus S John Lynch will probably return to the lineup. New Orleans enjoys decent health on this unit, with only RB James Fenderson (foot - doubtful), and G Kendyl Jacox (knee - questionable) on the injury report.

The forecast for Raymond James Stadium calls for a high of 85F and a low of 68F with a 20% chance for rain. It should be a great day to play football.

This is a NFC South matchup, so we presume the Buccaneers will manage to get "up" for this game vs. New Orleans. That should make it tough on the Saints to generate a ton of production in this phase of the game.

Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs. The Miami Defense (Bad Matchup)

Edgerrin James had an excellent and encouraging return from his back injury last Sunday, putting up 23/104/0 rushing with 1/5/0 receiving last week against the Houston Texans. In his absence, the team has been merely adequate (27/76/1 vs. Carolina in week 6) - for the season, the Colts rank as the 27th rushing attack in the NFL, with 183/639 yards (a low 3.5 ypc average).

Miami held down LaDainian Tomlinson in the rushing phase last week, allowing only 24/62/1 to him on the ground (he did rack up 11/80/0 receiving, though). They smothered the Patriots' committee two weeks ago, allowing only 29/59/0 to them as a team. It should not come as a surprise to hear that the Dolphins sport the top rushing D in the league in terms of yards allowed per game (73.9 on average), and are tied for the league lead with only 3 rushing scores allowed. That's some stout run D, folks.

Miami has some bumps and bruises, but no serious injury issues, listing DT Larry Chester as questionable due to his sore hamstring, while LB Junior Seau is probable despite his tweaked hamstring. Indianapolis is missing some key OL, with T Ryan Diem doubtful (abdomen); T Tarik Glenn questionable with a knee problem - T Adam Meadows (knee) and G Steve Sciullo (knee) are both probable to play. Backup RB James Mungro is out due to his bad knee, while Ricky Williams (ankle - questionable) and Dominic Rhodes (knee - probable) are also on the injury report.

The forecast for Pro Player Stadium calls for a high of 86F and a low of 71F with a 30% chance for rain. If the rain comes down hard, footing and ball handling could be an issue.

James is one of the leagues' best when he is healthy (and he looks almost there now), but even at the top of his game (assuming more help from the OL, too) Miami would represent a tough challenge. Advantage, Miami.

Washington's Trung Canidate / Rock Cartwright vs. The Dallas Defense (Bad Matchup)

Ladell Betts fractured his arm in the Redskin's last game, so we expect to see Trung Canidate back in the role of starter this week, with Rock Cartwright stepping in on short-yardage and goal-line situations. In week 7, with Canidate out of the lineup and Betts sidelined during the game due to injury, the Redskins eked out a mere 22/56/0 against the Buffalo defense. The week before that, Tampa frustrated the backfield to the tune of 23/68/0 - Washington is not getting much done in this phase in recent weeks.

Tampa had a decent day running the ball against the Cowboys last week, rushing for 35/128/0 on the day; while Detroit put up 21/83/0 two weeks ago against the defensive front. This season, the Cowboys have been extremely hard to score on - they lead the league (along with Miami, Carolina and Baltimore) with only 3 rushing scores allowed all year. They are ranked 3rd in the league allowing only 82.4 rushing yards per contest - as noted above, Tampa did better than that last week, but failed to score on the ground. Dat Nguyen was big for his IDP owners last week, ranking as the 4th best fantasy LB with 12 solo tackles and 3 assists in the game.

The Redskins list Ladell Betts as doubtful; G Dave Fiore (knee) as doubtful; and Canidate (ankle) as questionable. Dallas comes into the game relatively healthy.

The forecast for Texas Stadium calls for a high of 83F and a low of 62F with a 20% chance for rain. That's very good weather for a football game.

Washington has an underwhelming rushing attack, and Dallas is one of the best at defending against the run. It looks like a long day is in store for Canidate and Cartwright.