As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course…

E Tu, QB?

Earlier this season, I took a look at top rated running backs and where they were in terms of fantasy production versus our preseason expectations. This week, I'm turning the attention to the QB position, which is arguably the most variable year-to-year and possibly the least predictable (WR may in fact take that cake, but we'll cross that bridge next week).

In any event, this season has been a "normal" one for fantasy QBs; in others words, completely unpredictable. For every QB who's churning out the expected level of greatness (e.g., Peyton Manning), there are two 'studs' who haven't delivered on our expectations.

The following is a list of the projected top 12 QBs, according to our final preseason projections, along with their expected points per game, actual PPG through Week 9, and the differential:

At first glance, the results aren't that telling:

• 6 of our preseason QBs are producing greater than expected points-per-game
• 6 of our preseason QBs are producing less than expected points-per-game

But as you can see, the magnitude of the differential (both on the upside and the downside) makes all the difference in the world. For example, Donovan McNabb, ranked 2nd in the preseason, has been atrocious, averaging more than 40% less per game than we projected. Almost any other starting QB has been a better option on a week-to-week basis. On the other hand, while Brett Favre is technically falling short of expectations, the 0.6 fantasy points-per-game is hardly going to make a difference in terms of his value to your team.

So let's drill down into each player individually, to understand the context of their production through midseason:

Daunte Culpepper, Minnesota Vikings

Some people questioned our ranking Culpepper #1 among fantasy QBs this season, despite the fact that he's clearly been the most productive fantasy QB since he entered the league. Yet, halfway through the season Culpepper has more than lived up to his billing. Culpepper is averaging 22.8 points-per-game, which is almost 2 points per game BETTER than expected. What's interesting is that Culpepper has accomplished his production in a slightly different manner than expected. He's not rushed as much as projected, but that's been positively offset by his newfound ability to minimize turnovers. The only problem with Culpepper this season has been that he sat out two games due to a broken back, but he's returned with a vengeance and looks poised to continue his productivity the rest of the year.

Key Stats

• Culpepper is averaging 7.7 yards per attempt, significantly higher than our projected 7.0 yards per attempt. The 10% differential in actual YPA vs. expected YPA is the main reason for C-Pep being ahead of projected pace.
• Culpepper's 62.5% completion percentage is right in line with his career mark (62.3%), he's always been an accurate passer.
• Remarkably, Daunte has thrown 11 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions after leading the league in INTs last year (23). His +9 TD-to-Int ratio puts him on pace for a career best.
• Although some have contended that Culpepper isn't running as much since his return from injury, he's actually on pace (projected over a 16 game season) for 400 yards and 8 rushing touchdowns versus his career average (over 16 games) of 500 yards and 7.7 TDs.
• Despite talk of abandoning the "Randy Ratio", Culpepper is actually utilizing Moss more than ever. In Culpepper's six games, Moss has accounted for 51% of Culpepper's yardage, 39% of his completions, and 36% of his TDs. Moss' stats with Culpepper under center this year project to 104 receptions, 1667 yards and 11 touchdowns over a full 16 game season.
• OUTLOOK: Culpepper is probably a lock to have more than 2 INTs in the second half, if for no other reason than the fact that OC Scott Linehan calls an aggressive game plan. That said, barring a major regression, Culpepper should finish the year with a very solid TD-to-Int ratio, be among the league leaders in TDs passing, and contribute on the ground more than most. There's no reason he should be any less of an elite performer the rest of the way. One word of caution, Minnesota's schedule against the pass gets harder as the season goes along, with the last four weeks potentially difficult matchups.

Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles

Ironically, while many people questioned our ranking of Culpepper, very few questioned our ranking of McNabb. In fact, we got more people complaining that McNabb should've been ranked number one than people who felt he was over rated. I guess that's why we play the game. Everyone is aware that McNabb has had a dreadful start to the season, averaging just 12.0 fantasy points per game, good for 33rd best. As an Eagles season ticket holder, I can tell you that his lackluster performance is one of the most perplexing stories of the 2003 football season. Despite not being on the injury report this season (until this week), McNabb appears to have been bothered by a thumb injury all year; at least that's the story for the "McNabb Faithful" among us.

Key Stats

• You don't have to look too deeply into McNabb's statistics to see where he's struggling. His 5.3 yards per attempt would be his worst since 1999 (his rookie season) and one of the worst in recent league history. McNabb simply hasn't been completing passes downfield, which is a combination of an erratic touch on his part, and probably the worst group of receivers in the league failing to make plays for him.
• His completion percentage (52.4%) would also be his worst since he was a rookie. On a more promising note, the last two games (which coincidentally have been games without a thumb splint) he's gone 38 for 56 (67%), which may be a hallmark of better times. McNabb's never been a high percentage passer, but look for him to settle back into the 56%-58% range the rest of the way.
• The one area that should remain a concern for fantasy owners is McNabb's lack of rushing production. Through eight games, he's averaging just 27 yards per game. But more importantly, he's yet to score a rushing touchdown.
• OUTLOOK: The Eagles have righted the ship after a rough start and are 5-3 and in the thick of the NFC playoff hunt. Andy Reid has proven himself an excellent coach, and there's no question that McNabb is capable of much better performance. It would be downright inexplicable of McNabb to continue at such a horrid pace, even with his less-than-impressive supporting cast. Remember, there is little difference between this year's offensive cast and years past. That said, it's going to be nearly impossible to recoup your investment in McNabb. Your best bet is that he sets the world on fire over the next few weeks so you have a potential "secret weapon" come time for your fantasy playoffs. But don't insert him back into your lineup until he has another solid game or two; last week's showing was impressive, but also against the worst secondary in the league.

Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts

Although Manning got off to a rough start this year, Manning is now on pace for his best statistical season, impressive for a guy who has been a fixture in the top five for years. At 20.7 points-per-game, Manning is slightly ahead of his projected pace and is giving owners excellent return on their early draft picks.

Key Stats

• Manning is on pace to set career best marks in completion percentage (68.1%) and yards per attempt (7.9).
• More impressive has been Manning's ability to limit turnovers (just six Ints through 8 games), something that has plagued him at times during his career.
• OUTLOOK: There's not much to say about Manning other than he's likely to continue to be one of the premier fantasy QBs in the second half of the season. On top of playing at career best levels, it's worth noting how easy his schedule appears in the 2nd half, particularly in Weeks 14-17. If there were any way you can trade for Manning, it would probably behoove you to do so ASAP.

Rich Gannon, Oakland Raiders

Gannon rivals McNabb for most disappointing fantasy QB of 2003. Coming off an MVP season saw Gannon set the fantasy world on fire (set an NFL record for most 300+ yard passing games in a season), and returning virtually the same team, it was felt that Gannon would step right back into his productive ways. But a half season later and Gannon hasn't been worth starting in nearly any league format, amounting to a wasted early round pick.

Key Stats

• Where to begin? It all starts with passing productivity. Gannon's YPA is a paltry 5.7 through half the season, substantially below any point of his tenure in Oakland. Whether it's something in his mechanics, the game plan, the lack of Jerry Porter, aging skill players or the offensive line, clearly this offense is nowhere near what it once was.
• Gannon's completion percentage (55.4%) is nearly five percentage points lower than his career mark and down from 67.7% last year. Meanwhile, he has thrown 6 TDs in 7 games, which projects to 14 touchdown passes; 10 less than his worst season in Oakland.
• Another area of concern for fantasy owners is Gannon's failure to gain yardage with his feet. While not to be confused with Mike Vick, Gannon has been good for a couple hundred yards and 3-4 rushing touchdowns a year. This year he's rushed for just 18 yards in seven games.
• OUTLOOK: The entire team is in disarray, with players calling out the coaching staff. Oakland now looks like one of the worst teams in the league and it's difficult to see any quick fix on the horizon. Gannon was arguably in line to be benched anyway, but then he fell prey to an injury and his status remains uncertain for the next few weeks. Right now, Gannon is the worst kind of fantasy player; someone who you can't get much for in a trade, isn't good enough to put in your starting lineup, but is probably better than anyone on your waiver wire. Don't count on Gannon turning things around; the Raiders' circus has too many negative variables at play.

Aaron Brooks, New Orleans Saints

Brooks is another highly ranked QB who has gotten off to a slower-than-expected start. Specifically, Brooks has averaged 16.5 points per game through Week 9, just 17th among fantasy QBs.

Key Stats

• Aaron Brooks has thrown for less than 200 yards in seven (7) of nine (9) games this year, and is on pace for a rather pedestrian 3,270 yards passing.
• The shortfall in yardage is directly attributable to a lower-than-expected YPA. Brooks' YPA of 6.6, while respectable (and in line with his career average), is well short of our projected 7.1 YPA. Clearly we were projecting another step up for the Saints passing offense and instead it's stayed relatively flat with last year.
• From a touchdown perspective, Brooks 13 TDs puts him on pace for 23 on the season, which would be a step down from his last two seasons (26.5 per season) and less than our projected 25. However, he's taken better care of the ball by throwing only 6 Ints, putting him on pace for a much lower total that the 18 picks we expected.
• OUTLOOK: What a difference a few points make. When you get right down to it, there doesn't seem to be much different between a 3,300 yard, 23 TD, 11 Int season and a 3,700 yard, 25 TD, 18 Int season, but that's essentially what's separating Brooks from being the top 10 player we expected. He's played slightly better of late, although the team has yet to put up monster passing numbers save for week 7 against ATL, and everyone dominates the ATL secondary this year. Looking ahead to the second half, Brooks' strength of schedule is nearly equal to the first half. If Joe Horn and Donte Stallworth both come back from injury as expected, Brooks could be a serviceable starter but probably isn't going to win you many H2H matchups if you're counting on winning the QB slot.

Kurt Warner, St. Louis Rams

Sometimes fantasy points gained in NO WAY reflect the play on the field, and nowhere is that more in evidence than with Kurt Warner this season. As you can see from the chart above, Warner actually scored over 20 fantasy points as a starter, which puts him 10.5% above our expectation. In fact, Warner's 20.1 PPG ranks 6th, in line with our preseason expectations. However, as you all know, Warner was a fumbling machine in that game, which coupled with a 'concussion', put him on the sidelines, most likely permanently.

• OUTLOOK: The only question you should be asking yourself is, is Warner worth keeping as your 3rd QB, and that depends on roster size and other lineup requirements. Marc Bulger has stepped into the lineup and been All-World. In fact, Bulger is currently the highest scoring fantasy QB (on a PPG basis) under our scoring system. Bulger's stats projected over a 16-game season equate to 4,800 yards passing, 27 touchdowns, 21 Ints, 90 yards rushing and 7 rushing touchdowns. For those keeping score, that equates to 330 fantasy points, and probably amounts to a top three finish at his position.

Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers

Someday, Favre won't a reliable fantasy starter, but it looks like 2003 isn't that year. Even with a broken finger, Favre continues to deliver quality numbers, for a reasonable draft price (mid rounds this year). At 17.5 PPG, Favre is within shouting distance of our preseason expectations. While some might point out that Favre has had a few stinker games this year, when hasn't he had a few? But more often than not, he's played well enough to help you win.

Key Stats

• Favre is on pace for 3,450 yards passing, which would be his lowest total since 1993 and has yet to cross the 300 yard mark. However, he's thrown for at least 2 TDs in six of his last seven contests, and hasn't been intercepted more than once sine his 4 Int game to start the season.
• It's been an oddly efficient first half for Favre, who is completing 66.8% of his passes (versus his 61.2% career mark)
• Another reason Favre is holding his own despite throwing for less-than-expected yardage is that he's on pace for 32 touchdown passes, versus our expectation of 26. Favre is only two years removed from his last 32 TD effort, but we were being conservative given what looks to be his worst receiving corps in recent memory
• OUTLOOK: Despite losing Terry Glenn to Dallas, despite Donald Driver crashing back to Earth, and despite Robert Ferguson and Javon Walker failing to live up to their considerable potential, Favre is somehow having another top tier season. While he's not on pace to be one of the best fantasy QBs in the land, he's certainly not hurting owners who are deep at other positions and count on Favre to simply hold his own. By all accounts, most QBs wouldn't be playing with the finger fracture that Favre has on his throwing hand, but there's no indication that Favre isn't planning on toughing it out. His schedule looks benign in the second half, and you could do worse than count on him to give you just enough to win your H2H matchups.

Steve McNair, Tennessee Titans

There's been no better QB in real life and arguably in fantasy football this season than Steve McNair. What McNair has been able to do (22 PPG) despite having no semblance of a receiving game and a ragtag bunch of receivers is nothing short of amazing. While we forecast McNair to have a solid 17.9 PPG (8th best), his 22 PPG makes him a must start, week in, week out.

Key Stats

• McNair is completing 65.1% of his passes, which would shatter his previous career best (62.9%) but more impressive is his 8.7 YPA, among the league leaders and substantially better than his career average of 7.1 YPA.
• McNair is also on pace to throw a career-high 26 touchdown passes, versus our modest estimate of 19. Along with what looks to be a career best in TDs thrown, McNair has thrown only 3 Ints thus far, which puts him on pace for an otherworldly six Ints for the season.
• From a rushing perspective, McNair isn't amassing the traditional yardage (10 yards per game versus a career average of almost 30 YPG), but his 3 rushing TDs equal his output for all of last season.
• OUTLOOK: Newflash, the guy is this year's NFL MVP. He's on pace for career marks in yardage, touchdowns, TD-to-Int ratio, completion percentage, completions and yards-per-attempt. If that's not enough reason for him to be a must start, consider that the Titans running game remains a non factor to the point that McNair has to air it out to win games. And he's probably the team's best goal line threat now that Eddie George has seen his best years come and go. One word of caution, McNair has a statistically difficult final four weeks of the season, which could somewhat temper his production. But even at a slightly reduced level of output, McNair would still be putting up numbers that more than justified his draft position.

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks

Admit it, you figured Hasselbeck would step into this season at the blistering pace he finished 2002, and 4,000 yards passing would be a reasonable goal, right? Well, while he's not quite on that pace, he has been as good as predicted, putting up an impressive 18.2 PPG. 18.2 PPG puts Hasselbeck in the 10th spot (excluding Kurt Warner), in line with his 9th place preseason ranking.

Key Stats

• Hasselbeck is on pace for 3,550 yards passing, versus the projected 3,666 yards. One point of note on that front, after starting the season out with back-to-back games under the 200-yard mark (137 and 175 yards, to be exact), he has thrown for over 200 yards in six straight contests.
• Both his yards-per-attempt (7.2) and attempt per game (31) are virtually identical to expectation, with only his completion percentage falling short of projection (58.5% vs. 60.4%).
• Although not a big-time rusher, he's on pace for almost 200 yards and a couple of rushing touchdowns, in line with expectations.
• For the season, Hasselbeck has thrown 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions, which obviously projects to 24 and 14; again nearly identical to our preseason expectation of 24 and 16.
• OUTLOOK: With Hasselbeck you get what you asked for, a mid round selection that is putting up solid, top 10 numbers. While not a world beater, he's not hurting you either, which is all you can ask for from a guy that probably went later in your draft than many other top QBs. Ironically, he would probably be on pace for 3,800-4,000 yards were it not for the unbelievably inconsistent play and dropped balls from his starting WR tandem (Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson). One word of caution, Seattle has a more difficult schedule against the pass in the 2nd half, but nothing that qualifies as difficult using Clayton Gray's Strength of Schedule.

Trent Green, Kansas City Chiefs

Trent Green is another guy who has basically delivered to expectations, not a world beater by any stretch but a solid contributor, particularly if you've been able to spot start him with another mid tier starter. To be fair, aside from a monster 400 yard, 3-touchdown game, Green has been average, but no one questions the explosive potential of the KC offense. At 17.5 PPG, Green is nearly at our preseason projections, but he ranks 13th right now, which may be good enough to help you win if you're stacked at other positions, but not good enough to put your over the top against the top tier signal callers.

Key Stats

• Green is on pace for 3,670 yards passing, 22 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 90 yards rushing and 2 rushing touchdowns; which equates to 279 fantasy points. This compares to Green's projected total of 283 fantasy points; in other words, in line with expectations.
• Green's YPA is 7.7, even better than our expectations (7.4), which has been slightly offset by a modestly lower-than-expected completion percentage (59.4% versus 60.4%).
• OUTLOOK: It's no secret that the Chiefs are standing at 8-0 and the second half schedule looks very favorable; 13-3 or 14-2 are very reasonable goals. From a fantasy perspective, KC's second half is a bit more difficult in terms of passing production but Green has a favorable last four weeks of the season. In any event, anyone who has watched the Chiefs understands that the offense has yet to hit its stride, which means that Green has some upside to his current numbers, which have been "just good enough." I wouldn't say Green is a must start, but he's certainly someone that you should feel comfortable putting in your lineup most weeks.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Had I been writing this article two weeks ago, Tom Brady might have looked like more of a disappointment. However, after throwing for 609 yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks, Brady has brought his fantasy production back up to a respectable 16.4 PPG. However, 16.4 PPG is good for 17th (excluding Warner), hardly a fantasy goldmine or someone worthy of starting most weeks.

Key Stats

• Brady is completing 59.7% of his passes, which is slightly better than forecast (59.1%) but below his career mark (62.1%).
• By virtue of attaining a higher-than-expected YPA (7.1 versus 6.4 projected), Brady is on pace for almost 3,700 yards, which would equal last season but is ahead of his projected pace.
• Offsetting that to a large extent has been his downturn in touchdown production. Brady is on pace for 19-20 touchdowns, after leading the league last year with 28.
• OUTLOOK: There's not much to say about Tom Brady, other than he's going to give you some excellent games and some downright horrible ones. He's generally safe with the ball but appears to be taking fewer chances than last season, perhaps because of the injury and ineffectiveness of Troy Brown. In any event, the Patriots coaching staff has another contender on its hands and, absent a complete revamp of the running game, look for Brady to continue to throw the ball with great frequency. One very important note, particularly considering that Brady has been subpar thus far, he has a very difficult schedule remaining. Four of his remaining games warrant difficult ratings using Clayton Gray's SOS, and Brady has one of the hardest schedules of all the preseason top 12. I wouldn't count on Brady winning you too many weeks, and given his 17th place ranking thus far, you probably aren't either.

Jeff Garcia, San Francisco 49ers

Jeff Garcia is an odd character because his 18.2 PPG is well ahead of preseason expectations, but that's more a reflection of our haircutting his usual production for fear of a back injury. Statistically, his 18.2 PPG is well ahead of the projected 16.8, and he ranks 5th (excluding Warner) among fantasy QBs. But poor overall play by the 49ers and a newfound injury have sidelined Garcia and called into question the possibility of backup Tim Rattay playing.

Key Stats

• If there's any wonder why Garcia has come under fire this season, witness his completion percentage (54.9% vs. 62% for his career), which may have been related to his injury. It's difficult to understand how Garcia could become so inaccurate without being injured given his consistently accurate play leading into 2003.
• Garcia has thrown for less than 200 yards five times, and has only passed for more than 250 yards once. As startling, he's failed to throw a TD in four of eight games.
• From a yardage perspective, Garcia is on pace to throw for slightly more than 3,000 yards, which would be the lowest total by a 49er in decades.
• So how is Garcia ahead of his projected fantasy PPG given his struggles? It's the rushing production. Through eight games, Garcia has 4 rushing TDs and 207 yards. The projected 8 rushing TDs (which isn't likely to happen) makes up where his passing left off to some degree.
• OUTLOOK: Garcia's outlook is cloudy. The team is on the bye this week, and the assumption is that Garcia will get his job back as long as he's healthy enough to play. But clearly there are reasons to be concerned, because it would seem more likely that his rushing production would regress to normal before he'd suddenly turn back on the Pro Bowl form, which has escaped him all year. Either way, Garcia was an uncharacteristically late draft pick thanks to fears about his back this preseason, so chances are he's not someone that you counted on to really carry your team. If he comes back from his injury with guns blazing, you can feel good about playing him in the playoffs. San Fran enjoys one of the largest jumps in ease of pass defense in the 2nd half, as opposing teams are allowing almost 2 PPG more to QBs than the teams San Fran faced through the first nine games.

Concluding Thoughts

If you're a proponent of the Stud RB theory, as so many fantasy footballers are, than you usually look for value at the QB position in the mid to late rounds. This year, that strategy has likely served you well as players like Steve McNair and Matt Hasselbeck have been better than some of the 'can't miss' guys like McNabb, Vick, Warner and Gannon. And we didn't even touch on the outstanding play of guys like Marc Bulger (preseason ranked #45), Brad Johnson (#19), Kerry Collins (#18) and Jon Kitna (#21), all of whom are putting up top 12 numbers through the first half of the season. Hopefully you were able to resolve your QB issues by now, but sometimes it pays to review a player's progression to better understand whether to fish (i.e., trade FOR him) or cut bait (i.e., waive or trade him away).

See you all next week,

Cheers!

Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:

• 1 point per 25 yards passing
• 1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing
• 4 points per passing TD
• 6 points per rushing or receiving TD
• -1 per interception thrown

2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen and Ken Maxwell for providing the relevant statistical databases

3) Feel free to contact me ([email protected]) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues