As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course…

Minnesota Vikings: "D"on't Believe the Hype

With just six weeks left in the season, there are some surprising teams in contention, particularly in the NFC. If someone would have told you that Seattle, Dallas, Carolina and Minnesota would be leading their respective divisions midway through November, you probably would've smiled politely while figuring out how quickly you could get them back to the sanitarium. But in the immortal words of Grandpappy Wood, "that's why they play the game."

Unfortunately for Vikings fans, there's one very big difference between their team and the other unlikely division leaders; a semblance of a defense. Entering this weekend, Minnesota was the only one of these teams to rank in the bottom 10 in terms of total team defense, but it gets worse than that. Minnesota ranks in the bottom five in the following defensive categories:

• Total yards allowed (4th worst)
• Total passing yards allowed (4th worst)
• Total rushing yards allowed (5th worst)
• Yards per rush (Worst in the league)
• Rushing TDs allowed (3rd worst)

Minnesota is allowing a staggering 5.2 yards per rush, which would rank 2nd worst in the last decade. As disturbingly, the Vikings are on pace to allow almost 5,900 yards of total offense and approximately 2,150 yards rushing. Let's look at each of these metrics individually, to see how teams have fared while fielding similarly porous defenses.

Teams that allow 5,900+ Yards in a season

In the last ten years, 35 teams have allowed more than 5,900 yards and have a combined record of 211 Wins & 349 Losses (37.7%). Oddly enough, 10 of those teams had a .500 record or better, although none won more than 11 games. Of the teams allowing that much yardage, five made the playoffs (14%) and none advanced beyond the conference championship game. Coincidentally, the only team to advance that far despite allowing so many yards was the Minnesota Vikings in 2000.

W-L distribution for teams allowing at least 5,900 yards of offense (1993-2002):

Teams that allow 2,100 Rushing Yards in a season

As dreadful as the aforementioned numbers appear, it's an even worse outcome for teams that cannot stop the run. Over the last ten years, 38 teams have allowed at least 2,100 yards rushing. Those teams have a combined record of 192 Wins & 415 Losses & 1 Tie (31.6%)! Only six of those 38 teams had at least a .500 record and just one managed to make the playoffs (the 2001 NY Jets went 10-6 and lost in the divisional round).

W-L distribution for teams allowing at least 2,100 yards rushing (1993-2002):

Now remember, the Vikings are on pace to allow BOTH 5,900 total yards and 2,100 rushing yards. In the last decade, 14 teams have met both criteria and have a combined record of 64 Wins & 160 Losses (28.6%). Only one of these teams had a .500 record or better and NONE made the playoffs.

Conclusion

The Vikings are in a lot of trouble, unless they can reverse the course and find a way to stop opposing teams on defense. It should be considered a major accomplishment that the Vikings are even 6-4 at this point (and a testament to the Vikings offense) because history dictates otherwise.

• Teams that allow at least 5,900 yards have a winning percentage of 38%, and only five such teams have made the playoffs in the last decade
• Teams that allow at least 2,100 yards rushing have a winning percentage of 32%, and only one team has made the playoffs in the last decade
• Teams that allow BOTH 5,900 yards total offense and 2,100 yards rushing have a winning percentage of 29% and none have made the playoffs in the past decade

I would imagine quite a few beat writers would like back the early season proclamations that Vikings defensive coordinator George O'Leary had resurrected his career, his reputation and the Vikings franchise by instilling a better defensive system.

Take heart Panthers, Seahawks and Cowboys fans, history says you're very likely to make the playoffs. But Vikings fans, barring a major turnaround, your season is likely to get worse before it gets better. Thank goodness Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss are around to cure what ails you.

Cheers!

Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:

• 1 point per 25 yards passing
• 1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing
• 4 points per passing TD
• 6 points per rushing or receiving TD
• -1 per interception thrown

2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen and Ken Maxwell for providing the relevant statistical databases

3) Feel free to contact me ([email protected]) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues