As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course…

Priest Holmes. Curtis Martin. Terrell Davis. What do these running backs have in common? Aside from being three of the RBs of their generation, none were selected on the first day of the NFL draft. It's their success, along with the struggles of recent first round draft picks like Ron Dayne, Thomas Jones and John Avery that have sparked debate about whether NFL franchises are better off focusing on other positions in the first and second rounds of their drafts, because there are valuable running backs to be found later in the process. While it's easy to point to players like Holmes and Martin as evidence in support of this contention, does the body of NFL history really support the idea that NFL franchises can afford eschew RB as a premier draft position?

A Look At The Best of All Time…

It's always best to "start at the top," so I thought we would first look at the collection of RBs most consider the "best of all time." Now, this list is certainly not all-inclusive as it primarily spans the modern era, but I had to start someplace. For the record, those included in the list had to meet at least one of the following criteria:

• Rank in the top 40 all-time for rushing yards (through the 2002 season)



• Rank in the top 40 all-time for rushing TDs (through the 2002 season)



• Be named Gayle Sayers (Sayers' career was too short lived to make either list, but his HOF status dictated he be included, in my opinion)

As one would expect, many RBs were among the top 40 all-time in both yardage and touchdowns. As a result, we are left with what I call the "Prolific 49", the 49 running backs that have, to date, been the most prolific in league history.

The "Prolific 49"

** - Holmes was signed as an undrafted free agent

Now let's take a look at where these RBs were drafted. In the following table, where applicable, we denote:

• Round Selected



• Positional Ranking (i.e., how many other RBs were drafted ahead of them)



• Overall Ranking (i.e., what was their draft position)

** - Holmes was signed as an undrafted free agent

You'll note that the earliest entries among the "Prolific 49" are grayed out. This is to acknowledge that the data for their draft years is somewhat incomplete, partially due to the much less structured nature (and size) of the drafts back then. For the sake of this conversation, I have focused on all the RBs in the list from 1968 to the present, because the draft data is complete.

Results Summary:

• 26 of 40 (65%) were first round picks. That's a huge number when you consider that we're talking about the best of all time.



• If we define "high draft picks" as first and second rounders, 32 of 40 (80%) of the most prolific RBs in league history fit the bill.



• Looking at this another way, only 8 of the 40 most prolific backs in modern history have come later in the draft (i.e., 3rd round or later).

This makes what players like Priest Holmes and Curtis Martin have done all the more impressive. Not only did these guys defy the odds, but they managed to become two of the best of their generation in doing so.

Now, all this tells us is that, by and large, the best RB prospects rarely fall through the cracks of the majority of talent evaluators. If you're good enough to be an NFL great, there's a good chance more than a few teams have figured that out. HOWEVER, what this does NOT say is that NFL talent scouts knew most of these guys would be the very best in their class.

• Of the 26 RBs taken in the first round among our most prolific, only 13 were the first RBs selected in their respective drafts



• However, it's not as egregious as we may think at first glance. On average, the RBs on our list were selected 2nd among the position, hardly a major oversight

A few other tidbits to consider

• 13 of the backs were the first overall RB selected



• 19 of the our most prolific backs were top 10 overall selections (at any position)



• 23 were among the top 3 RBs selected (and first rounders)

Have GMs lost their touch in recent years?

As overwhelming the evidence appears that elite RBs are usually snatched up in the first round, or at the very latest the first two rounds, it's worth noting the chronological progression.

• 1968-1977: In this ten year span, the first of our study group, nine of the 10 most prolific backs drafted during that time were first round picks (90%). Only Pete Johnson fell out of the first round, and he was a 2nd rounder (49th overall). Six (60%) were the top RB selected, and all but Pete Johnson were among the top 3 RBs off the board.



• 1978-1987: In this span, twelve RB from our list were drafted, starting with Earl Campbell in 1978 and ending with Herschel Walker in 1985. Nine of the 12 backs (75%) were first rounders, although it should be noted that it was the last three (Roger Craig, Earnest Byner and Herschel Walker) that lowered the curve. Notably, only four of the 12 (33%) were the first RB selected, indicating a higher occurrence of missed opportunity by NFL talent evaluators. As many RBs (four) were taken fifth or later as were the top picks among this group.



• 1988-1997: In this final span, only 8 of 18 (44%) RBs on our list were first round picks. Think about this for a moment, after 20 years of virtually getting it right, more than half of this era's most prolific RBs were taken AFTER THE FIRST ROUND. Only 3 (17%) were the first RB selected and only 7 (39%) were among the top 3 RBs off the draft board.

Looking at this, it would certainly suggest that GMs have been less effective at evaluating the incoming RB talent, letting some of the best to ever play the game slip out of the first round. As many RBs were selected on after round 2 (including Priest Holmes, who wasn't selected at all) as were first round picks.

So how do we rationalize what appears to be a very dramatic dropoff in the ability to identify the cream of the RB crop? After all, haven't the last fifteen years brought about a more comprehensive evaluation process? Don't NFL teams have much larger scouting departments now? Don't they have comprehensive access to game film? The NFL Combine and individual workouts allow them to know just about every nuance of a player today, ranging from one's mental aptitude to the state of past injuries. And aren't teams better able to evaluate "character risks" in today's era because of liberal use of private investigators and background checks? With all this "advancement", how do we explain the drop off in correctly predicting which RBs would turn out to be the great ones?

Well, there are several explanations, and I'm certainly not in the position to answer the question definitively. But here are a few thoughts, which certainly help rationalize the data we've been presented with:

1. Paralysis by Analysis - I would say that NFL personnel executives may have too much information these days. There is a deluge of information on literally hundreds of prospects and it can often cloud the ultimate picture, "can this guy play the game of football?"



2. Expanded NCAA Competitive Field - The NCAA football environment has changed dramatically as limits were put on scholarships, regional cable networks began broadcasting formerly second tier teams and leagues, and the bowl system expanded to its current bloated state. It used to be the very best players wanted to play for a few select teams, and certainly most were at the major conferences. Such is not the case now, and it's more likely that someone with major NFL talent could have slipped through the cracks to play for a smaller program.



3. Ignorance is Bliss - Clinton Portis fell to the 2nd round because of rumors about his health and character. Curtis Martin fell into the 3rd round because of rumors of substance abuse. I guarantee you that in the days when O.J. Simpson was being scouted, teams didn't lower a guy with his talent because of the fact that he may have drank too much or wasn't a model citizen. Maybe such insights help NFL teams avoid disasters more often than not, but on those occasions when they pass over a player, it's most notable (e.g., Randy Moss, Warren Sapp, Curtis Martin).



4. More Opportunity - The NFL salary cap era has changed things. Teams put a premium on affordable depth, guys who are willing to play for the league minimum or close to it. As a result, teams are always looking to upgrade their depth and are much more likely to assess a low round draft pick in camp and give them a shot, whereas in days past teams would probably have stuck with a proven veteran backup because salaries weren't an issue. That's how players like Terrell Davis and Priest Holmes were able to establish beachheads in the NFL. Both were primarily backups to premier college tailbacks, but were given shots because they came cheaply.

Has recent performance shown any improvement?

You'll note that the most recent players on the list entered the league in 1997, which makes sense given that this is a list of the most prolific careers, and anyone drafted more recently hasn't quite had the time to crack the top 40 in yardage or TDs. That said, below is a list of all the RBs (not FBs) who made at least one Pro Bowl appearance over the last five years.

• Of the 22 RBs who've made at least one Pro Bowl appearance in the last five years, 13 of them were first round picks (59%), a fairly high number



• Six (27%) of the 22 were the top RB selected in their draft class, while 13 (59%) were among the first 3 RBs off the board



• Interestingly, two RBs from the Class of '99 have made the Pro Bowl, and they were the top two RBs taken in their draft. The same can be said of the top three RBs from the class of 2001. Oddly, no RBs from the class of 2000 have yet made the Pro Bowl, although that certainly looks to change with the likes of Jamal Lewis (first RB selected), and Shaun Alexander (4th RB selected) having such strong starts to their careers.

Concluding Thoughts

For much of the NFL's history, it was a fairly safe bet that if you wanted a premier RB, you had better take him in the first round, and early in the first round to boot. While there were plenty of 1st round RB busts, it was highly unusual for an elite tailback to get passed over by more than a few teams.

However, in recent years that appears to have changed. Less than half of the great backs of the last fifteen years were first round selections, and less than 1/5th were the first RB taken in their draft year. It seems ironic given how much more "advanced" the scouting and evaluation process has become. Maybe NFL talent evaluators have to remember it's not about 40 times and bench press, it's about whether a guy can hit the hole, has patience to wait for his blockers, and can take the pounding and give you solid carries game in, game out. Yes, to be fair, recent Pro Bowlers have been among the elite, with the majority of younger backs coming from the top part of the RB draft class.

Remember this when you're debating which rookie RBs are the most likely to break out. It's going to be as much about opportunity, situation, coaching and supporting cast as it is about where they were drafted and how much they're getting paid.

Cheers!

Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:

• 1 point per 25 yards passing



• 1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing



• 4 points per passing TD



• 6 points per rushing or receiving TD



• -1 per interception thrown

2) Special thanks to Draft History, Doug Drinen and Ken Maxwell for providing the relevant statistical databases

3) Feel free to contact me ([email protected]) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues.