As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course…

Mike Vanderjagt for MVP? … he's got a better shot than Torry Holt!
A look at the history of the NFL MVP Award

The NFL regular season is quickly coming to a close, with just three weeks to play. One of the more spirited topics of debate in recent weeks (on the Footballguys message boards and office coolers the world over) has been who is likely to win the NFL MVP Award. Now, for many people this debate forks into two separate issues: Who deserves to win the award and Who WILL win the award? Regardless of which road you've decided to drive down, I thought this week would be a good time to profile the history of the MVP award, as I believe it's fairly telling in terms of whittling down the likely winner.

First, let's lay some ground rules. When most people refer to the MVP Award, they are referring to the Associated Press (AP) NFL Most Valuable Player Award. The AP asks a panel of 48 journalists and broadcasters to cast their votes each year. It's an important distinction because while the AP is generally regarded as the "official" MVP award, it's quite common for other organizations (e.g., The Maxwell Club and The Sporting News) to name their own recipients. However, the AP is the only group that has consistently named an MVP year in, year out since the AFL-NFL merger.

NFL MVP (AP) recipients dating back to 1970 (post AFL-NFL merger):

Next, let's look at some truisms regarding the award based on its history…

1. A winning record is a must - No league MVP, since the merger, has ever played for a team without a winning record. On average, the league MVP has a team winning percentage of 77.8% (403 wins, 114 losses, 2 ties). Of the 34 winners since 1970, only Barry Sanders (1997) won less than 60% of his games. 26 of the winners (77%) won at least 70% of their games. And 16 (47%) won more than 80% of their games.
2. It pays to be a Quarterback - 21 of the 34 recipients since 1970 have been signal callers. That's a whopping 62% of the time, with the trend continuing in recent years. Seven of the last ten years have seen a QB win the award.
3. If you're not a QB, you better be part of the backfield anyway - When a QB hasn't won the award, it's generally gone to a running back. 10 of the 34 winners (29%) have been running backs including two of the last five recipients.
4. Wide receivers don't win MVPs - While it's admirable to hear John Clayton mention Torry Holt as someone getting mild MVP consideration, history dictates that he's no real threat to win the award, even if he were to overtake Jerry Rice's single season yardage mark. At no point in the post merger era has a WR won the award, even during Jerry Rice's absurdly good 1995 season.
5. Mike Vanderjagt has a better shot than Holt - As incredulous as this may seem, a place kicker has won the NFL MVP award. Mark Moseley, the Washington Redskins PK, won the MVP award in 1982, the first and only time a PK won the award; which is one more time than any tight end, wide receiver, offensive linemen, cornerback or defensive end have ever been honored.
6. Ray Lewis is also a possibility - In all seriousness, the talk of Ray Lewis winning the award has more merit than some of the other media-based hopefuls (i.e., Jon Kitna, Torry Holt and Randy Moss). While Ray seems a shoo-in for the Defensive Player of the Year, he also has history on his side in the name of LT. Lawrence Taylor is the only linebacker to win the MVP award, having done so in 1986. It's worth noting that LT had otherworldly statistics that year, which Lewis does not have this season, but the historical precedent exists nevertheless.
7. 49ers have struck gold more than any other team - The San Francisco 49ers have been home to the league MVP on five occasions, each going to a QB. While most of us remember Joe Montana (twice) and Steve Young (twice), don't forget about John Brodie, who won the award way back in 1970. Other teams that have struck gold more than twice include: Washington (three times), the Raiders (three times), Green Bay (three times) and St. Louis (three times).
8. 2,000 yards rushing equals MVP (usually) - With one exception (Eric Dickerson), RBs who eclipse 2,000 yards rushing in a season win the NFL MVP award. O.J. Simpson (1973), Barry Sanders (1997) and Terrell Davis (1998) all achieved the feat and were justly rewarded.
9. Brett Favre is the MVP of the ages - Brett Favre is the only 3-time recipient of the award, having won three in a row from 1995-1997. Interestingly, Kurt Warner nearly matched that feat in 1999-2001 but was beaten out by his own backfield mate; Marshall Faulk deservedly won the award in 2000.

Looking a little deeper into the trends

With the exceptions of the two defensive MVPs, what do these other players have in common, if anything? Well, it appears that being part of a "good" offense isn't enough, even if you are perceived as being the best player in the game. In fact, over the last 15 years, the MVP has gone to someone on an elite offensive team each and every year.

NFL MVPs and respective team offensive rankings

Team Offensive Ranking is a MAJOR Factor

You'll note that with few exceptions, the MVP comes from a team that has one of the league's best offenses. And this has become more pronounced over the last fifteen years, as each winner has been in the top 5 in at least one of the two offensive categories listed (yardage and points).

• 14 of 34 (41%) winners were part of a number one ranked offense
• 8 of 17 (47%) of the winners since 1987 have been atop the league offensive rankings
• 16 of 17 (94%) winners since 1987 were on teams that finished in the top 3 offensively; only Brett Favre's first MVP in 1995 was for a team outside the top 3, and his team ranked 5th that year in total offense
• 26 of 34 (77%) winners have ranked in the top five in at least one of the two major offensive team categories
• 17 of 17 (100%) winners since 1987 have been among the top 5 team offenses

Quarterbacks: A Closer Look

Below we list the QBs who have been named MVP as well as their individual rankings in four major passing categories for that year (note: N/A means they finished outside the top 10 for that metric).

Of the 21 times a QB was awarded the MVP, two glaring commonalities present themselves:

1. Eighteen of 21 (86%) ranked in the top 5 in passing yards
2. Sixteen of 21 (76%) ranked in the top 2 in passing touchdowns
3. Nineteen of 21 (91%) ranked in the top 3 in at least yards or touchdowns

The second metric is quite telling, as it shows that MVP voters value a quarterback's ability to put points on the board above all else. Until last year, when Rich Gannon won the award despite finishing 5th in TD passes, seven straight QB MVPs had been ranked 1st in passing touchdowns.

Running Backs: A Closer Look

Below we list the RBs who have been named MVP as well as their individual rankings in five major categories for that year (note: N/A means they finished outside the top 10 for that metric).

Of the 10 RBs named NFL MVP since 1970, yardage has proven the major factor in differentiating their performance versus scoring (which plays a bigger role for QBs).

1. Seven of 10 (70%) led the league in rushing during their MVP year, while only five lead the league in rushing TDs. Interestingly, Thurman Thomas won the award despite finishing outside the top ten in rushing TDs in 1991.
2. Only Marshall Faulk finished outside the top 3 in rushing (he finished 8th), but that was an unusual year because…
3. He scored an NFL record for touchdowns that season and had over 2,000 yards from scrimmage, a rare feat.
4. 'Yards from scrimmage' is equally telling (7 of 10 lead the league), with no one ranking worse than 4th.
5. Touchdowns scored remain important, although only four backs lead the league in that category during their MVP year.
6. EVERY RUNNING BACK NAMED MVP LEAD THE LEAGUE IN EITHER YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE OR TOUCHDOWNS SCORED, WITH NO EXCEPTIONS

Putting It All Together, And Handicapping This Year's MVP Race

Let's quickly review what we've learned and see if we can use historical context to frame this year's MVP candidates and their respective chances.

• The award typically goes to an offensive player in the backfield, with three out of five awards going to the quarterback position
• The winner is almost assuredly from a team with not just a winning record, but one of the better records in the league (60%+ winning percentage at a minimum) - That implies that a 10-6 record is a minimum cutoff in today's game
• MVPs are recognized from an elite offensive team, it's practically mandatory that the team ranks among the five best offensive units in the league, with most winners coming from one of the top three offenses
• Great emphasis is put on passing touchdowns, as more than three-fourths of the winners have been 1st or 2nd in that statistic. Nearly every QB to win the award has been among the league's top 3 in either passing yards or passing TDs
• Among RBs, every winner has lead the league in either yards from scrimmage or touchdowns, the MVP voters appropriately recognize scrimmage yards (rushing and receiving) as a more important measure than rushing alone. With that said, anyone amassing 2,000 yards rushing is nearly a shoo-in for league MVP.

2003 NFL MVP Award Candidates

• Ranking the offenses - Through Week 14, here are the league's leading offenses, both in terms of scoring and yardage. Remember that it's virtually a lock that the MVP will come from a top 5 offensive team, at least in one of the two categories…

  Team Offense, Yardage (through Week 14) & Potential MVP Candidates

  1. Minnesota (5,090 yards) - Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss
  2. Indianapolis (4,806 yards) - Peyton Manning
  3. Kansas City (4,772 yards) - Priest Holmes, Trent Green
  4. St. Louis (4,576 yards) - Torry Holt, Marc Bulger
  5. Seattle (4,530 yards) - Matt Hasselbeck
  6. Green Bay (4,521 yards) - Brett Favre, Ahman Green
  7. Denver (4,501 yards) - Clinton Portis
  8. San Francisco (4,481 yards)
  9. Cincinnati (4,389 yards) - Jon Kitna
  10. Tennessee (4,385 yards) - Steve McNair
      
      

  You'll note that I listed the top 10 in recognition of the fact that one or two of the second tier group could conceivably sneak into the top 5 over the last three weeks. Special focus on three names: Peyton Manning, Priest Holmes & Steve McNair. Manning and Holmes are the marquee names among the top three offensive teams and get a leg up in our first criteria. Steve McNair, who many have pegged an MVP favorite, is actually piloting the 10th most prolific offense. No QB since Terry Bradshaw (1978) has won the award at the helm of a team ranked so low in the offensive yardage.

  Team Offense, Points (through Week 14) & Potential MVP Candidates

  1. Kansas City (388 points) - Priest Holmes, Trent Green
  2. St. Louis (373 points) - Torry Holt, Marc Bulger
  3. Indianapolis (372 points) - Peyton Manning
  4. Tennessee (347 points) - Steve McNair
  5. Minnesota (344 points) - Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss
  6. Green Bay (332 points) - Brett Favre, Ahman Green
  7. Baltimore (331 points) - Jamal Lewis
  8. Seattle (330 points) - Matt Hasselbeck
  9. Denver (324 points) - Clinton Portis
  10. San Francisco (298 points)
      
      

  Not many surprises here, although it should be noted that once again Kansas City and Indianapolis are among the top three. Teams that rank in the top 3 of both offensive categories are that much more likely to produce a league MVP, which again heavily favors Priest Holmes and Peyton Manning. McNair looks a bit better as Tennessee ranks 4th in scoring, although it won't be easy to crack the top three with just three games to go (trailing Indy by 25 points). Jamal Lewis makes his first entry as Baltimore has been surprisingly efficient in scoring, thanks to back-to-back 44 point outings. And dark horse Cincinnati candidate Jon Kitna is nowhere to be found on this list, a dubious harbinger.

• Ranking the quarterbacks - Through Week 14, here are the league leaders in passing touchdowns and yardage, recall that nearly every QB to win the award has been among the top 3 in at least one, if not both categories; with special emphasis on passing touchdowns (3/4ths have finished 1st or 2nd in TD passes)…

  Passing TD Leaders (through Week 14)

  1. Tie - Peyton Manning (IND), Jon Kitna (CIN), Brett Favre (GB) - 23 TDs
  4. Tie - Matt Hasselbeck (SEA), Steve McNair (TEN), Brad Johnson (TB) - 22 TDs
  7. Tie - Trent Green (KC), Daunte Culpepper (MIN) - 20 TDs
  9. Marc Bulger - 18 TDs
  10. Aaron Brooks - 16 TDs

  There are realistically eight QBs who could end up leading the league, with Manning, Kitna, Favre, Hasselbeck, McNair, Johnson, Green and Culpepper all within three touchdowns of one another. Not much differentiates this group yet, but in the context of team offense, certainly Manning steps to the forefront and McNair's case continues to get a bit better despite his team's modest offensive production.

  Passing Yardage Leaders (through Week 14)

  1. Peyton Manning, IND (3,611 yards)
  2. Trent Green, KC (3,312 yards)
  3. Marc Bulger, STL (3,210 yards)
  4. Brad Johnson, TB (3,132 yards)
  5. Kerry Collins, NYG (3,110 yards)
  6. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA (3,101 yards)
  7. Tom Brady, NE (3,050 yards)
  8. Jon Kitna, CIN (3,025 yards)
  9. Tommy Maddox (3,009 yards)
  10. Steve McNair (2,947 yards)
      
      

  Surprise, surprise, Peyton Manning sits atop the list by a comfortable margin. He certainly looks assured of finishing among the top three if not leading the league. Trent Green deserves mention as he's 2nd in the league and in contention for the TD lead as well while piloting one of the best offenses in the NFL. It seems the media has downplayed his chances in favor of Priest Holmes, but Green's numbers match up with almost anyone aside from Manning. Take note that McNair again finds himself on the outside looking in as he ranks just 10th and would need to hurdle quite a few passers to crack the top three.

• Ranking the running backs - Through Week 14, here are the leading running backs in terms of yards from scrimmage and total touchdowns. Recall that every RB to win the MVP has LEAD the league in at least one of the two categories, with no exceptions…

  Yards from Scrimmage Leaders (through Week 14)

  1. Deuce McAllister, NO (1,844 yards)
  2. Ahman Green, GB (1,818 yards)
  3. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD (1,816 yards)
  4. Priest Holmes, KC (1,813 yards)
  5. Jamal Lewis, BAL (1,790 yards)
  6. Clinton Portis, DEN (1,760 yards)
     
     

  I cut the list off at sixth because seventh place (Fred Taylor, 1,503 yards) has very little chance of overtaking all six of these guys to lead the league. It's way too close to call among these six players with three games left, but one of them will lead the league. Notice Deuce McAllister with the lead currently, but also recognize that his team's losing record and the lack of prominence for the team's offense as a whole makes an him an extreme long shot for MVP. The same can be said for Tomlinson; who is probably the best player on a team assured of finishing the season with a losing record.

  Touchdowns from Scrimmage (through Week 14)

  1. Priest Holmes, KC (19 Touchdowns)
  2. Ahman Green, GB (15 TDs)
  3. Randy Moss, Min (13 TDs)
  4. Clinton Portis, DEN (12 TDs)
  4. Shaun Alexander, SEA (12 TDs)
  6. Travis Henry, BUF (11 TDs)
  6. Jamal Lewis, BAL (11 TDs)
  6. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD (11 TDs)

  Priest Holmes steps to the forefront of RB MVP candidates. With 19 touchdowns, he's a solid bet to win the scoring title, although Ahman Green has an outside chance particularly if Priest gets significant rest in the final week or two of the season.

The Handicapper's List of MVP Candidates

1. Peyton Manning - Manning is the heavy favorite. One, he's a quarterback. Two, he's a virtual lock to finish among the top three in passing yardage and touchdowns, with a very real shot of leading the league in both metrics. Three, the Colts are one of the top offenses in the league. Four, the Colts have one of the best records in the league. Barring a major setback in the final three games, Manning has to be considered the favorite to be named 2003 NFL MVP.
2. Priest Holmes - Holmes will most likely be the top vote getter among running backs, as he looks to be in position to lead the league in touchdowns, and be extremely close to the lead in yardage. Adding that to the fact that he's widely considered the best back in football and plays on a team that has had the best record for most of the season, he is the most viable threat to Manning's crown.
3. Trent Green - Green deserves more credit than he's gotten. He's second in the league in passing yards and just three touchdowns shy of leading the league with three games to play. Add to that the Chiefs having the best record in the league, and the best offense, and Green has all the makings of an MVP finalist. Not sure he's got the goods to beat out Manning or his own backfield mate, but he's certainly deserving of a top five finish. And to those who worry that Green won't get votes because Priest will, remember that Kurt Warner won two MVPs while Marshall Faulk was tearing up the NFL record books.
4. Steve McNair - I'm fairly confident that McNair will not win the MVP award, although he could very well finish 2nd. Although historical context shows very strong trends in terms of who wins the award, it's quite common for someone to finish among the top five (without winning) even though they don't meet the winning criteria. McNair will get recognition for his efficiency (he remains one of the highest rated passers), intangibles (he's perceived to be the toughest QB on the planet), and is among the league leaders in touchdown passes. However, Tennessee's offensive mediocrity and his own moderate passing numbers will be enough to keep him from beating out Manning.
5. Ahman Green - Ahman hasn't gotten mentioned much in the media, and when the votes are counted, he may well finish behind others such as Steve McNair and Jamal Lewis; even though he's probably more deserving. Green could lead the league in yardage and looks like a solid bet to finish 2nd to Holmes in touchdowns. Unfortunately, most voters when looking to Green Bay are too quick to think of Brett Favre. Additionally, the Packers have struggled to stay above .500 for most of the season, and that historically has detracted from a candidate's chances.

Others worth mentioning, but not threats to win:

• Jamal Lewis - Lewis will receive some recognition, particularly if he finishes with a strong push toward the rushing crown. He's the lone elite player on an offense that has been just good enough to make the Ravens an AFC playoff team.
• Ray Lewis - Ray Lewis will probably get more attention and more votes than his fellow Raven, and is a lock for Defensive Player of the Year. Lewis' individual stats and the Ravens' team defensive stats aren't otherworldly enough to make him the third defensive MVP in recent NFL history, but he'll get some votes for sure.
• Torry Holt - When Torry Holt was on pace to beat Jerry Rice's yardage record, he might have gotten some consideration as a top five finalist. However he's tailed off a bit but still probably gets a vote or two from Midwestern writers as he's been the most consistent fixture on a St. Louis offense that is right up there with KC and Indianapolis in terms of production. Combine that with St. Louis' gleaming won/loss record and Holt probably gets a complimentary vote or two.

I hope you enjoyed this look at the MVP award and its history. I would be very surprised if Peyton Manning or Priest Holmes didn't walk away with the award this year, with Manning the heavy favorite. But as any fantasy football player knows, rules are meant to be broken, and this could be the year when someone like McNair pulls a "Bradshaw" and is recognized for his intangibles. It hasn't happened in more than 15 years, but you never know.

Cheers!

Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:

• 1 point per 25 yards passing
• 1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing
• 4 points per passing TD
• 6 points per rushing or receiving TD
• -1 per interception thrown

2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen and Ken Maxwell for providing the relevant statistical databases

3) Feel free to contact me ([email protected]) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues.