As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course…

Well, Week One is in the books and some of you are feeling great, secure in the knowledge that you drafted masterfully and are one week into a run to the league title. Others are wondering what went wrong, and uncomfortably hoping that you didn't draft 'that guy' who is doomed for a disappointing season.

The good news is that help could be on the way. As any fantasy football veteran can attest, there are ALWAYS waiver wire pickups in the first week or two that can absolutely change the dynamics of your fantasy season. But not every waiver wire claim is going to be manna from heaven, in fact, more than likely; some of those "can't wait to get my hands on them" pickups will be nothing more than one week wonders.

In this week's issue of the Stategist, we'll be taking a look at a one of the most surprising performances EVER; Anquan Boldin, the rookie who is likely to be at the top of the waiver wire claims in most leagues.

Anquan Boldin, WR, Arizona Cardinals

In case you missed it, Anquan Boldin caught 10 passes for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns on Sunday; quite a feat for a guy who is available on waivers in almost every league in America. While some pundits had pointed out that Boldin, a rookie from Florida State, was going to be an important part of the Cardinals passing attack, no one saw that performance coming. This week Boldin is almost certainly going to be the top waiver wire selection and the question becomes, is he worth it? I'm not sure we can truly answer that question, but I know one thing, if you want him, you're going to have to grab him THIS week.

Consider:

• It was the best opening weekend performance of ANY rookie receiver in NFL history.
  No rookie receiver in NFL history has ever had as good an opening game. Obviously that's lofty praise, particularly in the context of some of the rookie sensations like Randy Moss and Terry Glenn, who were studly fantasy contributors right out of the gate. Does this mean anything in and of itself? Not really, but it IS important to note that this simply wasn't an impressive opening salvo that won't be duplicated, it was THE most impressive opening salvo of all time.





• It was THE best Week 1 fantasy performance for a receiver in recent history
  Using FBG scoring, Boldin's Week 1 totaled 33.7 fantasy points. That's the best Week 1 for any receiver since 1997, when Tim Brown had 158 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Titans. Dating back to 1995 (as far back as our weekly game database allows), Boldin's performance is the second best.

  Does that stat mean anything though? Let's take a look at the top 20 Week One fantasy totals for the WR position since 1995, and how they faired for the remainder of the season:

** Note: Irvin's season lasted just four games

As you can see, the results for these receivers after Week 1 were fairly impressive. To put the numbers in perspective, anything greater than 9.0 points per game is equivalent to a top 20 fantasy WR performance in a given year. In other words, of the top Week 1 performers in question, 56% (10 of 18) went on to be at least top 20 performers for the rest of the season. Only two of the eighteen (the other two are Boldin and Chambers from this year) went on to be busts the rest of the way, Willie Davis and Kevin Dyson. If you include Michael Irvin (who was suffered a career ending injury in game four of that season), you're looking at a 17% failure rate (i.e., a per game average that wouldn't have been productive). This doesn't answer the question in and of itself, but it certainly does give some credence to the notion that Boldin's performance could be a hallmark of consistent production.

• It was the 23rd time someone has recorded at least 200 yards receiving (1995-present)
  Not only was Boldin's production impressive for a rookie, and for Week 1, it was also one of the best yardage games of the last nine years. One would think that anyone capable of 200 yards receiving in a given week has to be talented enough to sustain a reasonably high level of performance. But are the numbers there to back that up? Let's look at all the receivers who have enjoyed 200 yard receiving games at least once since 1995:

** Note: Faulk's statistics include his rushing numbers, as well

This data is far less conclusive as the range is considerable. Remember that 9.0 points per game or better is roughly equivalent to top 20 production. Excluding Marshall Faulk, whose running stats skew his production, 52% (11 of 21) enjoyed top 20-caliber production the rest of the season. In other words, 200 yards receiving is not necessarily indicative of top 20 production the rest of the season; you're basically talking about a flip of coin empirically.

"Great Woodrow, so should I pick up Boldin this week or not?"
That depends on the parameters of your league, roster size, and the process by which you procure players from the waiver wire. But when you consider the confluence of positive indicators, it would be difficult to argue against making a claim for him.

• The most impressive rookie WR debut in NFL history



• The second most productive Week One of any fantasy receiver in the last nine years



• Targeted 15 times, one of the highest totals in the league



• Only the 22nd WR to net over 200 yards receiving in a game over the last decade



• On a team that will pass the ball a ton given the porous defense and questionable running game



• He has an offensive coordinator (Jerry Sullivan) who built his career as a receivers coach



• There is little proven competition for touches on the Cardinals roster

If you're in the position to pick up Boldin for no cost and/or you have a roster spot being occupied by someone that has little to no discernible value, you should absolutely take a flier on this guy. While 200 yards receiving or 30+ fantasy points in the first week aren't guarantees in and of themselves, the fact that he accomplished both in his FIRST NFL GAME should increase the significance of the accomplishment in my opinion. We don't know if he'll be the next Isaac Bruce or the next Don Beebe for awhile, but the fact that he's got a better than 50% chance of being a stud certainly justifies the claim.

CHEERS!

Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:

• 1 point per 25 yards passing



• 1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing



• 4 points per passing TD



• 6 points per rushing or receiving TD



• -1 per interception thrown

2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen (www.pro-football-reference.com) and Ken Maxwell (http://www.footballguys.com/insidethestats/stats.asp) for providing the relevant statistical databases

3) Feel free to contact me ([email protected]) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues