Jason Wood - Stategist Week 3

As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course…

Rushing Records, Quirky Boxscores and Other Statistical Anomalies…

One of the great things about football is that on any given Sunday you're liable to see something you've never seen before. Whether it's Carolina blocking a potential game-winning extra point to send the game into overtime, Jamal Lewis setting the all-time single game rushing record, or a team owner wheeling around his franchise quarterback like a nursemaid, there's always something that makes you step back and say, "Wow, that's a new one on me."

Week 2 of this season was full of quirky occurrences, some relevant to the fantasy world, others not so relevant. In this week's issue, I'm going to take a look at a few of the occurrences that struck me as interesting, unusual or downright baffling, starting with…

Jamal Lewis' Record

If you aren't aware that Jamal Lewis broke the single-game rushing record this past Sunday against the Browns, then you're also not the type of person who would be reading my column. So I'll assume that you are all aware of Lewis' impressive feat which culminated in 30 rushes for 295 yards and 2 scores; breaking Corey Dillon's previous record of 278 yards rushing.

But here are a few additional points to consider about Lewis' place in history…

200-yard rushing games are a harbinger of sustained fantasy success
In the past nine years (1995-present), there have been exactly thirty (30) 200+ yard rushing games. The distribution is quite lumpy, with as many as eleven 200+ yard games in a season (2000) and as few as zero (1995 and 1999).
Seventeen (17) of twenty three (23) RBs finished in the top 10 the year they enjoyed a 200 yard rushing game; an astounding 74%. Three of the six who did not finish in the top ten were due to injury-related part time status.
Lewis did NOT set the record for most yards from scrimmage, but he came close
Lewis did not have any receiving yards in the game, and as a result he did not simultaneously attain the record for most yards from scrimmage while breaking the rushing record. In the last decade, his 295 yards are good for 3rd place, behind Priest Holmes and Jerry Rice.

Total Yards from Scrimmage, Single Game - 1995-Present

Rk	Player	Year	Team	Week	RshYd	RecYd	TotYd
1	Priest Holmes	2002	KC	12	197	110	307
2	Jerry Rice	1995	SF	16	10	289	299
3	Jamal Lewis	2003	Bal	2	295	0	295
4	Jimmy Smith	2000	Jac	2	0	291	291
5	Terrell Owens	2000	SF	16	5	283	288
6	Marshall Faulk	2000	StL	7	208	78	286
7	Corey Dillon	2000	Cin	8	278	0	278
8	Priest Holmes	2001	KC	13	168	109	277
9	Tiki Barber	2002	NYG	17	203	73	276
10	Corey Dillon	1997	Cin	15	246	30	276

Lewis' 9.8 yards per carry is the 3rd best mark in the last decade
It's not uncommon for a running back to break a long run or two in spot duty and finish a game with an unusually high yards-per-carry, but to average such a high mark over a full workload is very uncommon. In looking back at all the games where a RB had at least 20 carries, Lewis' 9.8 yards per carry ranks 3rd (since 1995, as far back as our database allows).

Highest Yards-per-carry, Single Game (Minimum 20 Carries) - 1995-Present

Rk	Player	Year	Team	Week	Opp	Rush	RshYd	YPC
1	Corey Dillon	2000	Cin	8	Den	22	278	12.6
2	LeShon Johnson	1996	Ari	4	NO	21	214	10.2
3	Jamal Lewis	2003	Bal	2	Cle	30	295	9.8
4	Warrick Dunn	2000	TB	14	Dal	22	210	9.5
5	Clinton Portis	2002	Den	17	Ari	24	228	9.5
6	Garrison Hearst	1998	SF	1	NYJ	20	187	9.4
7	Barry Sanders	1997	Det	13	Ind	24	216	9.0
8	Barry Sanders	1997	Det	7	TB	24	215	9.0
9	Ray Zellars	1996	NO	7	Chi	20	174	8.7
10	Priest Holmes	2002	KC	12	Sea	23	197	8.6
11	Anthony Thomas	2001	Chi	6	Cin	22	188	8.5
12	Trung Canidate	2001	StL	6	NYJ	23	195	8.5
13	Ricky Williams	2002	Mia	13	Buf	27	228	8.4
14	Terrell Davis	1998	Den	5	Phi	20	168	8.4
15	Marshall Faulk	2001	StL	17	Atl	20	168	8.4
16	Marshall Faulk	2000	StL	7	Atl	25	208	8.3
17	Olandis Gary	1999	Den	15	Sea	22	183	8.3
18	Terrell Davis	1998	Den	2	Dal	23	191	8.3
19	Garrison Hearst	1998	SF	13	NYG	20	166	8.3
20	Charlie Garner	1999	SF	9	Pit	20	166	8.3
21	Garrison Hearst	1998	SF	15	Det	24	198	8.3
22	Robert Edwards	1998	NE	15	StL	24	196	8.2
23	Napolean Kaufman	1997	Oak	8	Den	28	227	8.1
24	Jamal Anderson	1997	Atl	10	StL	20	162	8.1
25	LaDainian Tomlinson	2002	SD	4	NE	27	217	8.0
26	Barry Sanders	1997	Det	17	NYJ	23	184	8.0
27	Terrell Davis	1997	Den	4	Cin	27	215	8.0
28	Jamal Anderson	1998	Atl	9	StL	22	172	7.8
29	Fred Taylor	2000	Jac	12	Pit	30	234	7.8
30	Robert Smith	1998	Min	2	StL	23	179	7.8

Lewis' 41.5 fantasy points just missed the top 20 of the last decade
J. Lewis had one of those weeks that single handedly wins his owner a head-to-head weekly matchup regardless of how the other positions fared. Using FBG scoring, Lewis scored 41.5 fantasy points; impressive YES, but not quite up to snuff in terms of some of the other monster weeks we've come to enjoy in recent years. Looking back to 1995, Lewis' Week 2 score ranks 21st. Who takes the top honors? That would be Shaun Alexander, care of his five-touchdown extravaganza in Week 4 of the 2002 season.

Top Single Game Fantasy Point Production - 1995-Present

Rk	Player	Year	Team	Week	FFPs
1	Shaun Alexander	2002	Sea	4	53.1
2	Corey Dillon	1997	Cin	15	51.6
3	Mike Anderson	2000	Den	14	49.6
4	Fred Taylor	2000	Jac	12	48.8
5	Priest Holmes	2002	KC	12	48.7
6	Jerry Rice	1995	SF	16	47.9
7	Marshall Faulk	2002	StL	7	47.5
8	Jimmy Smith	2000	Jac	2	47.1
9	Shaun Alexander	2001	Sea	9	45.3
10	LaDainian Tomlinson	2002	SD	13	45.1
11	Clinton Portis	2002	Den	15	44.5
12	Marshall Faulk	2000	StL	17	44.1
13	Qadry Ismail	1999	Bal	14	43.8
14	Peyton Manning	2001	Ind	2	43.7
15	Kordell Stewart	1997	Pit	15	43.1
16	Daunte Culpepper	2002	Min	15	42.9
17	Trent Green	1998	StL	12	42.7
18	Steve Young	1998	SF	7	42.6
19	Marshall Faulk	2000	StL	15	41.8
20	Jeff Garcia	2001	SF	5	41.6
21	Jamal Lewis	2003	Bal	2	41.5
22	Trent Green	2002	KC	4	41.2
23	Kordell Stewart	1997	Pit	6	41.1
24	Michael Vick	2002	Atl	13	41.0
25	Dorsey Levens	1999	GB	17	40.9
26	Barry Sanders	1998	Det	2	40.9
27	James Stewart	1997	Jac	7	40.9
28	Edgerrin James	2000	Ind	7	40.8
29	Eddie Kennison	1996	StL	16	40.6
30	Marshall Faulk	2001	StL	16	40.5

Travis Henry's Not-So-Impressive YPC
On the surface, Travis Henry had yet another stellar fantasy week; 20.8 fantasy points using FBG performance scoring. However, 18 of those points were the result of three short touchdown runs, which masked one of the worst rushing performances I've ever seen in a long time; 21 rushing attempts for 26 yards!

21 rushes for 26 yards = 1.2 yards per carry
What struck me about this stat line was that usually if a RB is having trouble gaining yards, the coaching staff goes away from him. While it's not necessarily unusual to see a RB with a low YPC in a given week, it IS highly unusual to see someone sustain that level of ineptitude while amassing 20 or more carries. That got me thinking, this HAS to be a record, right?
WRONG, but by the SLIMMEST of margins
In looking back at all the RBs (1995-present) who averaged 2 yards per carry or less while getting 20 carries or more in a game, Henry's showing comes very close to setting the record. His 1.238 yards per carry is 0.056 yards more than the record holder. Fortunately for Henry, the record holder went on to have a pretty decent career…as you can see below:

Lowest Yards Per Carry Average, Single Game (Min of 20 Carries) - 1995-Present

Rk	Player	Year	Team	Week	Rush	RshYd	RecYd	TDs	FFPs	YPC
1	Emmitt Smith	1999	Dal	6	22	26	0	1	8.6	1.182
2	Errict Rhett	1996	TB	12	20	24	5	1	8.9	1.200
3	Travis Henry	2003	Buf	2	21	26	2	3	20.8	1.238
4	Lamar Smith	2000	Mia	17	20	26	21	2	16.7	1.300
5	Natrone Means	1995	SD	6	24	33	33	1	12.6	1.375
6	Curtis Martin	1998	NYJ	9	30	42	14	0	5.6	1.400
7	Karim Abdul-Jabbar	1996	Mia	7	25	37	30	1	12.7	1.480
8	Errict Rhett	1999	Bal	11	23	36	22	1	11.8	1.565
9	Ricky Watters	1996	Phi	9	21	33	9	1	10.2	1.571
10	Darick Holmes	1996	Buf	12	28	46	-4	0	4.2	1.643
11	Jamal Anderson	1997	Atl	1	20	33	26	1	11.9	1.650
12	Barry Sanders	1998	Det	13	20	33	20	0	5.3	1.650
13	Natrone Means	1997	Jac	4	24	40	0	1	10.0	1.667
14	Lamar Smith	2001	Mia	7	21	35	1	1	9.6	1.667
15	Bam Morris	1998	KC	12	23	39	0	3	21.9	1.696
16	Mario Bates	1995	NO	17	23	40	0	0	4.0	1.739
17	Stacey Mack	2000	Jac	3	20	35	0	0	3.5	1.750
18	Jerome Bettis	1998	Pit	1	23	41	5	0	4.6	1.783
19	Terry Allen	2001	Bal	1	20	37	6	1	10.3	1.850
20	Curtis Martin	1998	NYJ	16	20	38	7	0	4.5	1.900
21	Errict Rhett	1995	TB	7	22	42	7	1	10.9	1.909
22	Emmitt Smith	2000	Dal	16	24	46	0	1	10.6	1.917
23	Jerome Bettis	2000	Pit	17	26	51	10	0	6.1	1.962
24	Eddie George	2001	Ten	17	26	51	9	0	6.0	1.962
25	Warrick Dunn	2001	TB	12	21	42	5	0	4.7	2.000
26	Marshall Faulk	1996	Ind	14	23	46	78	1	18.4	2.000
27	Marshall Faulk	1998	StL	5	25	50	44	1	15.4	2.000
28	Edgerrin James	1999	Ind	7	26	52	33	2	20.5	2.000
29	Jonathan Linton	1999	Buf	16	20	40	4	1	10.4	2.000
30	Jamel White	2001	Cle	16	21	42	56	2	21.8	2.000

Seattle's Strange Passing Day
The Seahawks annihilated the Arizona Cardinals 38-0 in Week 2, and both Matt Hasselbeck and Darrell Jackson were among the fantasy leaders at their respective positions. But upon closer examination, you'll see that Seattle completed just eight passes.

That got me wondering, when was the last time someone completed so few passes and yet was not a fantasy liability? Trick question. Jake Plummer did virtually the same thing this very week, passing for just 94 yards on nine completions but throwing 3 TD passes.

For the record, Hasselbeck had the ninth best fantasy passing day in the last decade of QBs who completed 10 or less passes in a game (note: the following chart omits QB rushing stats as that wasn't germane to this discussion, clearly some QBs have had monster fantasy games thanks to rushing achievements in conjunction with modest passing statistics).

Total Passing Fantasy Points, Single Game (Max 10 Completions) - 1995-Present

Rk	Player	Year	Team	Week	Opp	Cmp	Att	PsYd	PdTD	INTs	PsFPt
1	Tony Banks	1999	Bal	14	Pit	8	26	268	3	0	25.4
2	Tony Banks	1996	StL	5	Ari	10	18	186	3	1	20.3
3	Jim Kelly	1996	Buf	13	NYJ	10	14	176	3	1	19.8
4	Trent Dilfer	1998	TB	11	Jac	9	23	189	3	2	19.5
5	Koy Detmer	1999	Phi	15	NE	10	29	181	3	2	19.1
6	Doug Flutie	1999	Buf	12	NE	9	16	207	2	0	18.4
7	Jeff George	1999	Min	6	Det	10	12	214	2	1	17.7
8	Charlie Batch	1999	Det	2	GB	9	16	219	2	2	17.0
9	Matt Hasselbeck	2003	Sea	2	Ari	8	19	175	2	0	16.8
10	Jake Plummer	2003	Den	2	SD	9	13	94	3	0	16.7
11	Donald Hollas	1998	Oak	8	Cin	9	21	173	2	0	16.7
12	Shawn King	2000	TB	2	Chi	9	21	173	2	0	16.7
13	Randall Cunningham	2000	Dal	3	Was	10	23	185	2	1	16.3
14	Trent Dilfer	1998	TB	14	GB	9	22	181	2	1	16.1
15	Gus Frerotte	1995	Was	1	Ari	9	15	157	2	0	15.9
16	Aaron Brooks	2002	NO	13	TB	9	25	155	2	0	15.8
17	Troy Aikman	2000	Dal	8	Ari	9	15	154	2	0	15.7
18	Vinny Testaverde	1995	Cle	3	Hou	10	23	147	2	0	15.4
19	Steve McNair	1997	Ten	9	Ari	9	17	146	2	0	15.3
20	Jeff Blake	1997	Cin	5	NYJ	10	21	166	2	1	15.3
21	Steve McNair	1996	Ten	14	NYJ	6	17	142	2	0	15.1
22	David Carr	2002	Hou	1	Dal	10	22	145	2	1	14.3
23	Steve Bono	1996	KC	11	GB	9	22	204	1	0	14.2
24	A.J. Feeley	2001	Phi	17	TB	10	14	143	2	1	14.2
25	Bubby Brister	1998	Den	3	Oak	10	17	140	2	1	14.0
26	Mark Brunell	1997	Jac	11	KC	9	20	199	1	0	14.0
27	Chris Chandler	1998	Atl	17	Mia	3	3	118	2	0	13.9
28	Billy Joe Hobert	1995	LA	14	KC	5	11	118	2	0	13.9
29	Jeff Blake	2002	Bal	13	Cin	10	19	115	2	0	13.8
30	Jonathan Quinn	1998	Jac	17	Pit	10	19	192	1	0	13.6

In the same game, Darrell Jackson caught just three receptions yet amassed 133 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns in the process. How rare a feat is that?

It's not entirely uncommon for a player to net 100 yards or more while catching three or fewer receptions. In fact, there have been 49 such instances since 1995, ranging from Torry Holt's 3 reception-189 yard outing in 2000 down to Bobby Shaw's 2 catch-100 yard outing in 2001.
Jackson's 25.3 fantasy points were the fifth most by a receiver in the subset (i.e., 3 receptions or less):

Highest Fantasy Point Production by WR (Maximum 3 Receptions) - 1995 to Present

Rk	Player	Year	Team	Week	Rec	RecYd	TDs	FFPs
1	Randy Moss	1998	Min	13	3	163	3	34.3
2	Torry Holt	2000	StL	4	3	189	2	30.9
3	Keith Poole	1998	NO	7	3	154	2	27.4
4	Az-Zahir Hakim	1999	StL	4	3	78	3	25.8
5	Darrell Jackson	2003	Sea	2	3	133	2	25.3
6	Reidel Anthony	1998	TB	11	2	126	2	24.6
7	Marcus Robinson	2000	Chi	5	2	126	2	24.6
8	Raghib Ismail	1995	Oak	8	3	125	2	24.5
9	Joey Galloway	1998	Sea	14	2	127	2	24.4
10	Derrick Mason	2001	Ten	12	3	122	2	24.2
11	Quincy Morgan	2002	Cle	14	3	118	2	23.8
12	Terrell Owens	2001	SF	17	2	116	2	23.6
13	Chris Chambers	2001	Mia	9	3	113	2	23.3
14	Irving Fryar	1995	Mia	2	3	113	2	23.3
15	Shawn Jefferson	1999	NE	8	3	113	2	23.3
16	Herman Moore	1996	Det	6	3	107	2	22.7
17	Leslie Sheppard	1996	Was	5	3	76	2	22.5
18	Chris Sanders	1995	Ten	4	2	104	2	22.4
19	Koren Robinson	2002	Sea	7	3	166	1	22.1
20	Jeff Graham	1997	NYJ	1	3	100	2	22.0

Jackson's 44.3 yards per reception was impressive and among the ten best of the decade, but nowhere close to the record set by Torry Holt in 2003:
Highest Yards Per Reception (Minimum 3 Receptions) - 1995-Present

Rk	Player	Year	Team	Week	Rec	RecYd	TDs	FFPs	YPR
1	Torry Holt	2000	StL	4	3	189	2	30.9	63.0
2	Koren Robinson	2002	Sea	7	3	166	1	22.1	55.3
3	Randy Moss	1998	Min	13	3	163	3	34.3	54.3
4	Keith Poole	1998	NO	7	3	154	2	27.4	51.3
5	Eddie Kennison	1996	StL	16	5	226	3	40.6	45.2
6	Joe Horn	2002	NO	11	3	134	1	19.4	44.7
7	Darrell Jackson	2003	Sea	2	3	133	2	25.3	44.3
8	Qadry Ismail	1999	Bal	14	6	258	3	43.8	43.0
9	Marcus Pollard	2001	Ind	10	3	126	1	18.6	42.0
10	Raghib Ismail	1995	Oak	8	3	125	2	24.5	41.7
11	Ricky Proehl	1997	Chi	14	4	164	1	22.4	41.0
12	Byron Chamberlain	1999	Den	6	3	123	0	12.3	41.0
13	Derrick Mason	2001	Ten	12	3	122	2	24.2	40.7
14	Torrance Small	1998	Phi	16	3	120	0	12.0	40.0
15	Brandon Bennett	1998	Cin	16	3	119	0	18.2	39.7
16	Derrick Mayes	1997	GB	12	3	119	0	11.9	39.7
17	Quincy Morgan	2002	Cle	14	3	118	2	23.8	39.3
18	Corey Bradford	2001	GB	10	3	117	0	11.7	39.0
19	Tony Martin	1997	SD	5	4	155	3	33.5	38.8
20	Randy Moss	1998	Min	5	5	190	2	31.0	38.0
21	Michael Westbrook	1999	Was	10	4	152	1	22.1	38.0
22	Michael Lewis	2002	NO	12	3	114	0	11.4	38.0
23	Chris Chambers	2001	Mia	9	3	113	2	23.3	37.7
24	Irving Fryar	1995	Mia	2	3	113	2	23.3	37.7
25	Shawn Jefferson	1999	NE	8	3	113	2	23.3	37.7
26	Quinny Early	1996	Buf	14	3	113	1	17.3	37.7
27	Jeff Graham	1999	SD	16	3	113	1	17.3	37.7
28	Jake Reed	1996	Min	2	4	148	0	14.8	37.0
29	Curtis Conway	1995	Chi	8	3	111	1	19.0	37.0
30	Corey Bradford	2001	GB	17	3	111	1	17.1	37.0
31	Curtis Conway	2001	SD	9	3	111	1	17.1	37.0
32	James McKnight	2002	Mia	12	3	111	1	17.1	37.0

Concluding Thoughts:

Since this column was all about looking at anomalistic occurrences, it's not surprising that I'm not leaving you with any major pearls of fantasy wisdom. However, exceptions make the rule and hopefully this helps put some perspective behind some of the more interesting statistical feats I've seen in quite some time. At the risk of stating the obvious, here are a few parting thoughts to take with you into the remainder of your fantasy season:

Jamal Lewis is very likely to be a fantasy stud. As long as he stays healthy, history says he's got an excellent chance of finishing in the top 10 at his position, if not higher. If you've got him on your roster, hold onto him. If you're trying to acquire him, be prepared to give up quite a bit to get him, he's probably worth it.
Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Plummer joined some odd company by completing less than 10 passes in a game but contributing reasonably strong fantasy production in the process. While it's never comforting to see your fantasy signal caller keeping company with the likes of Tony Banks, Trent Dilfer and Charlie Batch, you can take solace in the fact that Jim Kelly, Randall Cunningham and Troy Aikman are also on this list.
Darrell Jackson is a game-breaker and could easily out produce Koren Robinson this year. While we ranked (and continue to project) Koren Robinson to have the better season, there is no reason to think that DJax isn't capable of turning in an equally impressive fantasy campaign. His Week 2 performance highlights what a game breaker he can be if given the opportunity. Combine that with the fact that he's a more proven red zone target, has better hands at this stage of their careers, and isn't in his coach's doghouse, and it might be worth acquiring Jackson before his value gets too high.
Travis Henry will be just fine. It was an odd game that would probably be chalked up to "just a really bad day" were it not for the fact that Henry netted three TDs during his subpar rushing efforts. The real lesson of Henry's Week 2 performance is that the Bills are committed to their preseason promise of running the ball consistently, and the team isn't afraid to continue feeding Henry the ball as a matter of principal. Obviously this bodes EXTREMELY well for Henry owners this season.

CHEERS!

Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:

1 point per 25 yards passing
1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing
4 points per passing TD
6 points per rushing or receiving TD
-1 per interception thrown

2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen (www.pro-football-reference.com) and Ken Maxwell (http://www.footballguys.com/insidethestats/stats.asp) for providing the relevant statistical databases

3) Feel free to contact me ([email protected]) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues