As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course…

The "Dud" Running Back Theory

Well, through three weeks one of the most basic tenets of fantasy football, The Stud Running Back Theory, is being tested to its extremes thanks to a combination of injuries and sub-standard on-field performances. For the uninitiated, the Stud RB Theory is the idea that you load up on good (and potentially good) running backs early in your fantasy draft because RB production is extremely difficult to replace during the season. It's one of the most basic and popular practices of our hobby. Just think about how many RBs are drafted in the first two rounds of your draft and you'll understand what the "Stud RB Theory" is all about.

Unfortunately for many owners, the top rated running backs have fallen short of expectations through three weeks of the season, and it's causing quite a panic amongst owners wondering: a) what exactly is happening and b) how do they get past it?

The following is a list of the projected top 20 RBs, according to our final preseason projections, along with their expected points per game, actual PPG through Week 3, and the differential:

The results are staggeringly disappointing:

• Sixteen (16) of the preseason top 20 (80%) are currently performing short of our preseason expectations



• Nine (9) are currently averaging at least 25% less per game



• Four (4) have generated approximately 50% or less fantasy points than expected through the early part of the year

In other words, it hasn't been easy being a productive fantasy running back through Week 3 of the 2003 season, and it certainly hasn't been easy owning a lot of these guys and having them in your starting lineups.

Now, of course there are the exceptions. Priest Holmes is smashing through our projections and looks every bit the league's best player. Jamal Lewis, care of his 295-yard effort in Week 2 is also well ahead of preseason expectations. And Ricky Williams and Ahman Green are both outperforming lofty preseason expectations thus far.

So why are these backs falling short of expectations, and which of them are more likely to break out of their slumps? More importantly, which backs look to be finished to the point where it'd be best to trade them and cut bait now while they still have some perceived value? Below I endeavor to answer those questions on a case-by-case basis; looking at all 16 RBs from our preseason top 20 who are falling short of expectations to date.

LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers

Tomlinson has averaged 13.2 points per game, which projects to 212 points for the season. While good enough for a top 10 fantasy finish; LT was the top draft choice in the majority of leagues this year and he's not been the difference maker many hoped for.

Key Stats:

• Tomlinson is averaging 4.5 yards per carry, slightly AHEAD of our projected 4.4 yards per carry. The difference is that LT is on pace to amass just 277 carries this year, well short of his projected 340 carries. Credit the team's inability to pass effectively combined with a poor showing from the Chargers' defense.



• On a receiving front, LT is currently on pace to exceed his preseason projections. With 18 receptions for 105 yards through three weeks, he's on pace for 96 receptions and 560 yards (versus 70 for 476).



• LT also needs to find the end zone more frequently, scoring just one touchdown in three games (which projects to just 5 touchdowns on the season, well short of the 18 touchdowns we projected for him).



• The passing game has also been, from a yardage standpoint, exactly as projected. However, Brees has thrown six interceptions (double his projected rate), which has curtailed the team's ability to press into the red zone efficiently.



• The Chargers defense is allowing opposing teams to rush for 160 yards per game, third worst in the league. The opposition is controlling the time of possession and sustaining long drives, limiting LT's opportunities.



• OUTLOOK: Through three games LT is still producing top 10 fantasy stats despite being on an 0-3 team with major defensive issues. He's proven capable of producing fantastic stats in difficult situations before, and should continue to pile on the yards through the air and on the ground. Unfortunately, with OT Vaughn Parker lost for the year and no help in sight for the defensive front, it might be difficult if not impossible for LT to come close to those preseason TD expectations.

Clinton Portis, Denver Broncos

Portis has averaged 15.0 points per game, which projects to 240 points for the season, only slightly short of his projected total of 298 points. Chances are Portis owners aren't that disappointed for two reasons. One, his relative shortfall has been less severe than other top backs. Two, Portis has been taken out of the last two games at or before the half because Denver was comfortably ahead and Portis is nursing an injured sternum.

Key Stats:

• When in the game, Portis has been better than advertised. He's averaged a whopping 6.3-yards per carry; well ahead of his projected 4.7 YPC. The only reason Portis has fallen short of expectations is because of his 2nd half no-shows. Portis' 46 carries were accumulated over four halves (rather than the six we'd normally associate with three games), and on that basis he's on pace to meet our projected rushes per game. The question is simply whether or not he can play the lion's share of the season?



• Portis has only caught six receptions for 39 yards, well short of our projected pace of 54 receptions (3.4 per game) for 470 yards (29 yards per game). Credit that more with Denver's ability to get out to early leads in each of its games; Plummer hasn't been asked to throw for many yards particularly in the 2nd half.



• If Denver's defense can sustain the current pace (11 points and 70 yards rushing allowed per game), it bodes well for Portis and the Denver RBs to get quite a few carries over the course of the season.



• OUTLOOK: Portis is technically falling short of expectations; but plenty of owners (me included) are 3-0 with Portis in their lineups. He's been a yardage machine who has been given a lighter-than-expected workload because of his sternum injury and the team's early dominance. While Portis is uncertain for this weekend's game; it's expected that he'll be fine beyond this Sunday. To that end, Portis could easily finish as this year's top fantasy back and should remain an integral part of your fantasy plans if you've been lucky enough to roster him.

Marshall Faulk, St. Louis Rams

Marshall Faulk simply hasn't been himself this season, accruing less than half the projected fantasy point production. His 8.1 points per game projects to just 130 fantasy points this season; making him a fringe player in anyone's lineup. This week Faulk underwent knee surgery having already been sidelined for three to four weeks with a broken hand.

Key Stats:

• Faulk was averaging just 2.7 yards per carry this season, a career worst.



• He was also on pace to catch just 64 passes, despite having caught at least 80 receptions in each of his last five seasons



• OUTLOOK: Faulk will miss a good portion of the fantasy season, and given his age and lack of effectiveness prior to his injury, it's unclear whether he'll garner you any return on your high draft pick this season. If anyone is willing to part ways with a second tier RB who's capable of putting up 10 or more fantasy points per game this year; I would recommend you take the offer. It's a shame because we could be looking at the end of an AMAZING career.

Deuce McAllister, New Orleans Saints

Deuce has averaged just 11.2 points per game, 35% less than his projected production of 17.2 points per game. While Deuce currently stands as the 15th best fantasy back, he's not producing numbers commensurate with a RB1 that many expected, particularly since he was a first round selection in nearly every draft this year.

Key Stats:

• McAllister is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry; well short of the 4.4 yards we projected. How much that has to do with him versus the effectiveness of his line versus the team's overall inability to generate offense remains unclear.



• Deuce is on pace for slightly more than 280 carries. This is short of our projected total of 315, but not enough to account for the 35% shortfall in fantasy point production. Much has to do with his less-than-projected yards-per-touch.



• Perhaps endemic of the broader Saints' passing attack, Deuce is on pace to substantially exceed his projected reception total (he's on pace for 80 catches versus a projected 51 receptions), HOWEVER, he's slightly behind pace for total receiving yards. In other words, Deuce is catching a lot more balls than we thought, but he's getting a lot less per reception than expected.



• OUTLOOK: The Saints are in the middle of the pack for team defense and offensive production. Yet, both the running game and passing attacks are projected to fall short of expectations (many expected the Saints to be near the top of the league in total offense). Part of the problem stems from an offensive line that hasn't jelled yet, having lost Kyle Turley this offseason. The other part of the problem is Aaron Brooks' inability to lead the offense, much the same problem that befell the Saints in the last month of last season. Monitor Deuce's YPC carefully, that could be the difference between a fantastic season and an OK one, but he's done enough in limited touches to not worry about him yet.

Edgerrin James, Indianapolis Colts

Admit it; you thought the "Edge" would be back this year. I know I did (heck, I wrote an article about that very subject in the FBG magazine.) Through three games, Edge looks nothing like the RB who led the NFL in rushing a few years ago. Now, Edge's 13.0 points per game isn't terrible, but it's a far cry from the 16.9 points per game expected of him. The 23% shortfall is the difference between Edge being the right selection at the end of the first round and being a reach that caused you to pass over someone else.

Key Stats:

• For a guy who is finally supposed to be back to form, his 3.7 yards per carry this season is strikingly similar to last season's 3.6 yards per carry and nothing at all like the 4.4 yards per carry he averaged in his first three seasons.



• Edge is not the only troubled cog in the Indy offensive machine. The Colts offense is averaging just 284 yards per game; which projects to 4,540 yards for the season. That would rank near the bottom of the league and would be more than 1,300 yards less than the Colts' 5-year average offensive production. Can you say Dungification?



• Edge is also not making plays in the passing game. Edge averaged almost 10 yards per reception prior to his ACL injury, but is now averaging just 6.6 yards per catch; perhaps indicating he's lost a step?



• OUTLOOK: It's hard to believe that the Colts' offense will continue to languish as it had through the first three weeks of the season. Even with Edge injured, the Colts' produced substantially more yards per game in 2001-2002. The personnel are essentially the same, and Dallas Clark appears to be a great asset at TE. So it stands to reason that Edge will continue to produce, albeit not at the elite level we once came to expect. There is an issue of injury that is currently being discussed which bears watching, but resign yourself to the fact that Edge is more suited as a RB2 than a top tier RB1.

Travis Henry, Buffalo Bills

It's hard to call anyone averaging 15.0 points per game a disappointment and clearly given the magnitude of other RBs' shortfalls, Henry has been a bright spot in the early going for many fantasy owners. However, he IS running 8% behind our projected 16.3 PPG and produced literally NOTHING in Week 3 failing to break 10 yards rushing while throwing an interception.

Key Stats:

• The good news is that T. Henry has five touchdowns already, second only to Priest Holmes. Obviously that puts Henry on pace for 27 touchdowns this year, which would be among the all time greats. Hopefully you realize that he's likely going to fall well short of that projected mark but looks like a good bet to hit our preseason projection of 12 and then some.



• The bad news is that Henry is averaging 2.3 yards per carry, which makes Eddie George look like game breaker. Most of Henry's production came in Week 1 from a yardage standpoint, and he's had two HORRIBLE rushing games in a row (buoyed artificially by three goal line TD rushes in Week 2). Simply put, Henry cannot continue to rush for only 2.3 yards per carry. Neither the Buffalo offense nor he can sustain a high level of production in that scenario.



• With only four receptions in three games (a projected 21 receptions), Henry has thus far not been involved in the passing game anywhere near the degree that the Bills coaching staff promised during the preseason. While Henry has never been regarded as a receiver akin to Priest Holmes or Marshall Faulk, he did have 43 receptions last year and should be targeted even more this season with the departure of Larry Centers.



• Buffalo has the 3rd worst rushing attack in the NFL thus far, doing little to support the idea that Buffalo would be more balanced between the run and the pass this year. Put a lot of that squarely on the back of Henry and the offensive line's run blocking. Without better production on a per-carry basis, opposing defenses will start keying on the passing game more intently which could derail the Bills' early season success, much as it did last year.



• OUTLOOK: Henry has been a better fantasy back thus far than NFL player, but his goose egg in Week 3 hurt quite a bit. It's difficult to imagine that such a prolific set of offensive weapons will continue to languish, particularly with the Bills defense playing so well. Presuming Henry's rib injury isn't chronic, look for him to put in a workhorse effort the rest of the year and earn his keep on the goal line.

Shaun Alexander, Seattle Seahawks

Shaun Alexander is another of those backs who hasn't felt like a disappointment because he's fallen short of his projections by a lesser amount than so many of his RB brethren. Nevertheless, his 14.4 PPG is 10% short of our 16.0 PPG projection.

Key Stats:

• Alexander has been effective running the ball. His 4.3 yards per carry is right in line with his career marks and slightly ahead of our preseason projection (4.2 YPC). Alexander's current shortfall is DIRECTLY correlated to a lower-than-projected number of carries. Alexander's 51 carries projects to 272 carries versus our expectation of 305. Part of the shortfall lies in the fact that Maurice Morris is an uber-talented backup and warrants a few series of his own; but considering Alexander missed almost a half of football because his wife was in labor, SA is on track thus far in terms of rushing yardage.



• Alexander only has seven receptions for 35 yards this season, which projects to about half of the yardage we expected (and less than half of what Alexander has amassed in each of the last two seasons). Whether that's a conscious effort to get the ball to other receiving options or simply a three-week anomaly remains to be seen, but bears watching.



• S.A. has three touchdowns through three games, on pace for 16 scores which is directly in line with his prior years' production and our preseason expectation of 15 scores.



• OUTLOOK: The Seahawks are executing well, starting the season 3-0 with Hasselbeck showing the poise that many expected when Holmgren acquired him from Green Bay. Alexander has been as good as advertised, other than getting a few less touches per game than projected. We're going to assume that balances out over the course of the season. There's no reason to think Alexander shouldn't continue to excel, as his underlying metrics are nearly identical to his career marks.

Fred Taylor, Jacksonville Jaguars

Who would've thought that "Fragile Fred" would be one of the healthier top tier backs in the NFL? That's been the case, as Taylor has shown no signs of injury or reduced effectiveness this season. That said, from a fantasy standpoint Taylor has fallen 25% short of projected points. His 11.3 points per game projects to 180 points, which is well short of the 242 points we expected of him.

Key Stats:

• Taylor is averaging 5.1 yards per carry; substantially better than the 4.4 yards we expected and well ahead of his career average (4.6 YPC). What's so impressive about this feat is that Taylor is rushing against eight men in the box consistently, behind an offensive line that was decimated this offseason. Anyone that doubted whether Taylor was a special RB should take a look at what he's doing this year with no offensive help.



• Taylor is on pace for over 280 rushes, nearly in line with our preseason expectations of 290 rushes.



• Fred has already caught 15 passes, which projects to 69 receptions for the year, which would smash his previous career high of 49 receptions, set in 2002.



• So if Taylor is on pace for total rushes, is getting more out of each rush, and is also on pace to substantially exceed his projected receiving totals, how is he running 25% short of his expected fantasy points production? Touchdowns. Taylor hasn't found the end zone yet this season yet was projected to score 12 touchdowns.



• OUTLOOK: Taylor is doing more with less this year, except he's yet to score a touchdown. Taylor's inability to score stems from two things. One, the Jaguars offense has been ineffective in the red zone with no proven receiving threats and a shaky offensive line. Two, Taylor has been pulled on the goal line several times already, not dissimilar to years past. Many thought that with Stacey Mack gone to Houston and a new head coach on board, Taylor would be the workhorse, but we haven't seen evidence of that YET. Bottom line, Taylor is getting a lot done in yardage leagues thus far and the return of WR Jimmy Smith (and the possible insertion of Leftwich at QB) can only help open up the offense. Taylor is worth keeping and playing regularly; he'll get his share of touchdowns.

Corey Dillon, Cincinnati Bengals

Corey Dillon has been an outright bust thus far. Virtually no one expected him to be a top tier RB this year, but there's no reason he shouldn't be putting up solid RB2 numbers again this year. The team has a new coach and is playing more disciplined football, so logic would dictate that Dillon could be primed for one of his best seasons. Through three weeks, not only has he fallen massively short of expectations, Dillon's 7.2 PPG barely qualifies as a RB3.

Key Stats:

• In two consecutive games, Dillon left early with an injury. In Week 2, he barely played the 2nd half (3 carries) and was pulled in the first few minutes of the second quarter in Week 3. That helps explain why Dillon has just 40 carries through three games. Were he to sustain that level, Dillon would end the season with less carries (213) than his rookie year when he played in just 11 games. If you adjust for the lost time, Dillon is on pace for well over 300 carries, so the key for him is to STAY HEALTHY.



• Unfortunately, Dillon has been unable to find his rhythm and his YPC has suffered as a result. Through three games he's averaging just 3.6 yards per carry which well short of his career mark (4.4 YPC) and our expectation (4.2 YPC).



• Dillon has never been considered a good receiving back, but he did catch a career-high 43 balls last year for 298 yards. This season he has just 3 catches for 13 yards, playing almost no role in the Bengals' passing attack.



• OUTLOOK: Dillon has taken a lot of hits in his young career, averaging 323 carries in the last three seasons. This year he's already had to miss game time due to a hyper-extended knee and a severe groin pull. It remains unclear whether he'll play and how effective he'll be this week, but clearly something is wrong. Dillon has help now in the form of Chad Johnson, Jon Kitna, Peter Warrick and eventually, Carson Palmer. This should be the year Dillon emerges to the rest of the world as one of THE best RBs in the NFL, but only if these early heath issues are resolved quickly. If at all possible, stash Dillon on your bench until he shows you the old flash in a game situation.

Tiki Barber, New York Giants

Through three games, Tiki is the league's 3rd leading rusher with 313 yards yet his 11.9 PPG is 16% short of the 14.2 PPG we projected for him this season. Much of that shortfall can be attributed to one bad game out of three, but let's look a bit closer at Tiki's start to the 2003 season.

Key Stats:

• 313 yards on 67 carries is fantastic any way you slice it. Barber is on pace to rush for almost 1,700 yards on 357 carries; a workload that would've seemed absurd to most a few years ago when Tiki was regarded as a 3rd down back. It would be unreasonable to assume that Tiki will continue carrying such a heavy workload, but 300 carries (as projected) seems quite feasible.



• Barber is making the most of his carries, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, slightly ahead of his career YPC (4.6) and well ahead of our projections (4.2 YPC).



• So despite being on pace for more than 20 carries a game, and averaging more yards-per-carry than expected, Barber is falling short of expectations; how can that be? For starters, his receiving yardage is well off the pace. Barber's 8 receptions for 44 yards (which projects to 43 receptions for 235 yards) are well short of our expectations (60 for 525).



• Barber has never been considered a major touchdown scorer, and we only projected 8 touchdowns for the all-purpose Giant. However, through three weeks Barber has failed to score a touchdown either rushing or receiving (he had 11 last year). Whether this is a regression to the times when Fassel chose other options (i.e., backup RBs and the passing game) in the red zone or simply a statistical quirk of the first three games remains to be seen.



• The passing game has been as good as advertised; ranking 8th in yardage and first in touchdowns, but QB Collins has been spreading the ball to his other players, particularly Ike Hilliard; who was injured for much of last year.



• OUTLOOK: At the end of the day we fantasy owners don't care how our players get their fantasy points, as long as they get them. Barber is on pace to smash expectations on the ground, in which case we can deal with a shortfall in his receiving metrics. If you've watched Barber play, you see he's explosive, and logic dictates that he'll find the end zone sooner rather than later. We don't expect Barber to continue seeing such a heavy rushing workload, particularly with three other tailbacks on the roster (Joyce, Levens, Dayne), but by the same token, look for Barber to be more involved in the receiving game; a skill that he's owned far longer than he's been an every down rusher.

Stephen Davis, Carolina Panthers

Stephen Davis barely made this list, and could easily smash through our preseason projections based on his accomplishments through two games (he enjoyed a bye week already). While Davis' 13.2 PPG is slightly lower than our projected 13.7 PPG, keep in mind that Davis has already rushed for 142 yards against the vaunted Tampa Bay Bucs.

Key Stats:

• Davis has always been a product of his workload, and the Panthers signed him with every intention of getting him the ball 20-25 times EVERY GAME. So far, so good. Davis has 55 carries through two games, which projects to an NFL record 440 carries through 16 games.



• Davis is 'on pace' for 2,024 rushing yards. While we'd be shocked if he approached that most revered of statistical milestones, his early season workload does bode extremely well for him to exceed our preseason expectations of 1,316 yards rushing.



• What's more impressive is that Davis is averaging 4.6 yards per carry; significantly better than expected (4.0) and his career average (4.2). Were he to maintain his current YPC, it would be his best mark since his breakout 1,400-yard/17 TD season in 1999.



• Credit the Panthers offensive line and a commitment to the power running game by offensive coordinator Dan Henning for the early season production. Carolina is 29th in the league in passing attempts per game but is 4th in rushing attempts. This team is committed to ball control, smash mouth football.



• What makes Davis' early work seem so encouraging despite the fact that he's slightly behind projected pace is that he's managed to score more than 13 points per game without scoring a touchdown or being involved in the passing game. Through two games Davis has no scores and only one reception for 11 yards.



• OUTLOOK: Davis has looked every bit the "power back" he was in his dominating years with Washington. The Panthers offense is built around him and he should be considered one of the more pleasant surprises in a wasteland of top tier RB performances. Barring injury, Davis looks to exceed our preseason PPG expectations after holding his own versus Tampa in the early going.

William Green, Cleveland Browns

William Green is right down there with Corey Dillon in terms of failing to meet expectations. Through three games the Browns' RB has averaged just 7.1 PPG, almost 50% short of his projected total of 13.6 (i.e., 218 fantasy points for the year).

Key Stats:

• Green is averaging 17 carries per game, which equates to approximately 280 carries on the season, slightly less than his projected total (310); but that 10% shortfall fails to explain the fact that WG is nearly 50% short of projections.



• Like so many other "duds", we have to start with Green's yards-per-carry. At 3.6 YPC, Green is averaging less that he did in 2002, when half of his year was an utter disaster. The team is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry suggesting that Green's shortfall is as much a function of the offensive line and play calling as his own struggles out of the gate.



• At the risk of repeating common themes, Green hasn't scored yet AND he's woefully under represented in the receiving game. To date, Green has caught just 4 passes for 26 yards (which projects to 21 receptions for 139 yards.) Much of that can be blamed on the ineffectiveness of Kelly Holcomb; as CLE has averaged just 166 passing yards and 1 TD pass per game.



• While the young Cleveland defense has done well from a scoring standpoint (only 2 TDs allowed through three games), it has allowed the 2nd most rushing yards in the league (including the embarrassment against the Ravens) and must do a better job of stopping the run for the offensive unit to have enough opportunities.



• OUTLOOK: Green is a talented young back who had a solid second half last year. Clearly the offensive line injuries and Kelly Holcomb's rough start are limiting the entire Cleveland offense. Either Holcomb must improve OR Tim Couch will be given a chance. Unfortunately Tim Couch hasn't been a poster boy for offensive effectiveness either. Nothing is working for the Browns offensively, yet there's talent and they proved capable of putting up some big numbers last year. Green certainly shouldn't be in your starting lineup except as a bye week replacement until he strings together some effective performances.

Charlie Garner, Oakland Raiders

Despite finishing in the top 10 three of his last four seasons, Garner was projected to finish just 17th this year, with 214 points. After all, even in his worst season as a starter (2001), Garner finished 17th largely because of scoring only 3 TDs. Yet three weeks into the 2003 season Garner is substantially under performing our conservative expectations.

Key Stats:

• Garner has only rushed the ball 24 times through three games; meaning he's on pace for just 128 carries which would be his lowest total since 1998 (when he missed six games in Philly). Oakland, as a team, has rushed a league low 46 times in three games, which would project to just 245 rushes for the year and would be an NFL record low for a 16-game season.



• Garner, along with the rest of the Raiders offense, simply isn't making plays when he does get the opportunity. His 3.9 YPC would mark a career low, and it's well short of last year's 5.3 YPC or our projected 4.7 YPC.



• Garner is contributing in the passing game, catching 14 passes for 149 yards and a touchdown. That projects to 75 receptions for 795 yards and 5 touchdowns, ahead of our projections (70 receptions for 602 yards and 3 TDs).



• Oakland is on pace to generate 3,800 yards of total offense this year, which would not only put it near the bottom of the league, it would be less than the team's PASSING yards alone in each of the last two years. The Raiders are 1-2 and clearly perplexed after returning the majority of players from last year's Super Bowl team. It's hard to believe that WR Jerry Porter makes that much of a difference.



• OUTLOOK: Garner isn't the kind of RB who is going to get 20 carries a game, but he's arguably the most important weapon at league MVP Rich Gannon's disposal and must do a better job on the ground. He appears to be making plays in the passing game, but hasn't found his rhythm behind the mammoth Oakland line. Every year the Raiders' offense has defied the critics who suggested the key players were too old, perhaps this is the year the lie becomes the truth? I wouldn't give up on Garner yet, because it's tough to gauge him when the entire team has under performed. Give him a few weeks to see a) if the Raiders can turn it around collectively and b) how his performance gels with a more consistent Raiders' attack.

Curtis Martin, New York Jets

Of all the backs in our preseason top 20, Curtis Martin's start to the season has been the most disappointing. His 18th place ranking indicated that not a lot of improvement was expected from Martin's subpar 2002 campaign, but he was still expected to contribute 13.3 PPG (213 fantasy points for the season). Yet, through three games Martin has been one of the least effective starting tailbacks in the game, producing just 5.3 PPG, contributing to quite a few 0-3 starts to the fantasy season.

Key Stats:

• As maligned as Vinny Testeverde and Paul Hackett (the Jets' offensive coordinator) have been during the team's 0-3 start, it's the play of Martin and the offensive line, which deserves the most scrutiny. Martin has been a shell of his former self, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry.



• The coaching staff has not committed to Martin and the running game either. The Jets' rank 30th in the league in attempts per game with Martin getting 40 of the team's 50 carries. With Chad Pennington being hurt, one would expect the opposite to occur, that the Jets would rely on Martin and backup Lamont Jordan, but such is not the case, at least thus far.



• Further pointing the finger directly at Martin is his woeful showing in the receiving game. While Martin will never be confused with Priest Holmes, he has averaged 47 receptions a season over his eight-year career. This year Martin is on pace for 43 receptions, essentially on track, but he's averaging just 3.1 yards-per-catch. That would be one of the lowest yards per catch for ANY player in NFL history with at least 40 receptions and clearly shows that Martin simply isn't making plays when he gets the ball.



• OUTLOOK: Curtis Martin doesn't look like he has much left in the tank. After taking off most of the preseason for the first time in his career (supposedly to reinvigorate him and let his body heal), he appears tentative and sluggish with the ball. The Jets are definitely out of synch offensively and the team lacks playmakers at any skill position, however Martin is clearly one of the main reasons for the team's poor showing. With Lamont Jordan on the sidelines, it makes sense for the Jets to work him into the mix, which means it makes sense for you to keep CMart on your bench.

Amos Zereoue, Pittsburgh Steelers

Having been given the starting job this offseason, Zereoue was supposed to break into the top 20 with a solid season (197 fantasy points) and serve as a capable fantasy RB2. However, through three weeks Zero has fallen short of expectations and has basically played more like an RB3 than an RB2, which can make quite a difference if you start only two RBs in your lineup.

Key Stats:

• Zero is doing the job on a per carry basis. He is averaging 4.1 yards per carry, exactly in line with our preseason expectations.



• Unfortunately for Zero owners, he's getting just 14 carries per game, and lost nearly all the touches in the 2nd half of Week 3 to Jerome Bettis. His 225 carry pace would put him at 925 yards rushing, nothing great in and of itself.



• The Steelers have been ineffective running the ball, with Zero being one of the lone bright spots. The team has averaged just 3.3 YPC while Zero has averaged 4.1 YPC. However, the question of durability has been raised (whether warranted or not), as Zero hasn't shown himself to be as effective when carrying a full workload in the past.



• Zero has fallen short of projections on the receiving side with just 4 receptions for 45 yards through three games. Zero caught 42 passes last year and was projected to match that total this year but seems to be less involved with the passing game for two reasons. One, because Zero has been the primary back, he hasn't been given the 3rd down role as a receiver out of the backfield. Two, the Steelers are going vertical with the passing game thus far, focusing on the talented WR tandem of Burress and Ward.



• OUTLOOK: Zero has done well on a per-carry basis, but the fact that the Steelers ground game has been so anemic coupled with Bettis' heavy workload in the 2nd half of last week bodes ill for Amos getting out of a RBBC situation. He needs to work himself back into the passing game in order to come close to meeting our fantasy projections, particularly if he isn't in line to score as many touchdowns in the red zone as we had projected. Zero looks like a spot starter the rest of the way barring an injury to Bettis.

Eddie George, Tennessee Titans

If Eddie George keeps up his current pace (9.2 PPG), he will finish outside the top 20 for first time in his storied career. George has been productive the last few years only when he finds the end zone, as his yards-per-carry continue to decline.

Key Stats:

• Eddie is getting the ball at a prodigious rate, showing no signs of being less of a workhorse. His 64 carries through three games projects to 341 carries for the season; inline with last year and expectations.



• The problem is that Eddie keeps doing less with each carry. This year he's averaging just 2.9 YPC meaning he could be the first person to ever have 340 carries but fail to gain 1,000 yards rushing.



• Through three games George has one touchdown, which came in Week 3. Obviously he, of all the projected top RBs, needs to score regularly to justify his fantasy ranking.



• It should be noted that the Titans are averaging LESS than 2.6 yards per carry on "non Eddie George" carries, which could indicate that the team simply doesn't have the blockers and scheme to effectively gain yards on the ground.



• OUTLOOK: No one expected Eddie George to ascend back into the elite ranks this year, but he was supposed to have enough left in the tank to put together another year like 2002, which was characterized by tons of carries and 14 touchdowns. The scoring hasn't emerged and his window may be closing provided that rookie Chris Brown, who has been sidelined by a hamstring injury, shows the same level of explosion that he showed early in training camp.
  
  Concluding Thoughts

If you subscribe to the "Stud RB Theory" like so many fantasy drafters, there's a good chance you've had a tough start out of the gate. With 80% of the top 20 crop falling short of expectations in the early going, it's difficult to smile at your RB situation unless you were fortunate enough to draft Priest Holmes or Ricky Williams in the first round and follow that up with Jamal Lewis or Ahman Green in the second round.

The good news is that barring a historically dismal year all around for RB production, some of these guys will pull it together and be very valuable the rest of the way. Hopefully this overview helps crystallize how and why each of these RBs is falling short, so that you can determine in your own mind which of these guys is worth trading for, keeping or letting loose. I wouldn't worry too much about players who are merely having trouble finding the end zone, that seems to have a way or normalizing over the course of a 16 game season. But the backs that are not getting it done on a per carry basis need to be watched carefully, particularly if their age or injury history suggests that the downturn could persist.

Best of luck the rest of the way, we'll see you next week.

Cheers!

Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:

• 1 point per 25 yards passing



• 1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing



• 4 points per passing TD



• 6 points per rushing or receiving TD



• -1 per interception thrown

2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen and Ken Maxwell for providing the relevant statistical databases

3) Feel free to contact me ([email protected]) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues