As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that
take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed
in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the
draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune
our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can,
when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be
useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address
some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant
of course…
A walk through some statistical trivia …
This week I've decided to put the studies aside (have no fear, next week I'll
be back with an extensive look at tight ends and why they never seem to be worth
their preseason draft ranking) and look at a few statistical tidbits that caught
my eye over the first quarter of the season…at worst I hope these tidbit
make for a decent read as you eat your lunch at your desk.
- Peyton Manning's 6 Touchdown Game - Peyton Manning threw six touchdowns
against the woeful New Orleans Saints in Week 4; giving him nine for the season
and vaulting Manning back into the upper echelon of fantasy contributors.
But did you also realize that?
- It was the first time since 1991 that a QB threw at six touchdown passes.
The QB in question? None other than Mark Rypien of the Washington Redskins.
Colts faithful should take heart; it was a magical year for the Redskins
as Rypien marched them to a Super Bowl victory. Coincidentally, it was
also a career year for Rypien (3,564 yards, 28 touchdowns and 11 INTs)
on his way to a 2nd place finish among fantasy QBs.
- The NFL record for touchdown passes in a game: Seven (7), held by five
men (Sid Luckman, Adrian Burk, George Blanda, Y.A. Tittle, and Joe Kapp).
Whoever said they never passed the ball before the 70's never watched
these guys.
- Even though Manning is among the league's most prolific passers since
entering the league, this was only his fourth game with 4+ touchdown passes.
The active leader in that category? Brett Favre, with 14 games of 4 or
more TD passes.
- Manning went from the 26th ranked fantasy passer (9.7 PPG) to the top
rated passer (19.7) in one game. Don't forget that he's hurt you three
times and helped you once; full year stats can be misleading.
- Reggie Kelly's Week 4 Box Score (1 rec for 1 yard and 1 touchdown)
- Reggie Kelly's one catch for a touchdown (on the one yard line) marked the
lowest aggregate production someone can amass in fantasy gaming and still
score a touchdown. One can only imagine how livid someone would have been
facing off against him with, say, Todd Heap. Kelly outscored Heap on one play
from scrimmage.
- Kelly wasn't the only one to score a touchdown on their only catch of
the game last week. Four other players caught touchdowns despite having
just one reception (Drew Brees, Dallas Clark, Scotty Anderson, and Antonio
Bryant).
- For the season, 15 players have scored a touchdown on their lone reception
of a game.
- Since 1995, there have been 66 times when a player caught a pass for
one yard and scored.
- Patrick Hape, the fullback/halfback, is the league leader over the last
decade with four such instances.
- The Quest for Four - Through four weeks, Oakland is the only team
with at least three receivers with a 100-yard receiving game (Brown, Rice,
Garner). Given the impending return of Jerry Porter, it's quite possible,
if not likely that Porter will surpass the century mark; which would give
the Raiders four players with at least one 100+ yard receiving game this season.
That's a fairly uncommon occurrence.
- Only 20 teams in the last decade have had four or more receivers with
at least one "100-yard" game in the same season. Oakland, as
you might expect, also made the list last year, as well as 1997.
- Only two teams have had FIVE receivers with at least one "100 yard
game" in the past ten years, and they are: Kansas City '02 and the
Rams '01.
- Here is the complete team list…
- Kansas City '02 (Holmes, Hall, Boerigter, Gonzalez, Kennison)
- St. Louis '01 (Proehl, Holt, Bruce, Faulk, Canidate)
- Buffalo '96 (Thomas, Tasker, Reed, Early)
- Chicago '99 (Robinson, Booker, Engram, Conway)
- Cleveland '95 (Smith, Rison, McCardell, Jackson)
- Green Bay '96 (Freeman, Rison, Beebe, Brooks)
- Miami '98 (McDuffie, Gadsen, Martin, Thomas)
- New Orleans '98 (Poole, Hastings, Cleeland, Bech)
- New England '02 (Patten, Faulk, Brown, Branch)
- New England '99 (Simmons, Jefferson, Glenn, Brown)
- New England '98 (Simmons, Jefferson, Glenn, Coates)
- New York Jets '00 (Ward, Coles, Chrebet, Anderson)
- New York Jets '96 (Ward, Johnson, Graham, Chrebet)
- Oakland '02 (Rice, Porter, Jolley, Brown)
- Oakland '97 (Kaufman, Jett, Dudley, Brown)
- St. Louis '00 (Holt, Hakim, Faulk, Bruce)
- St. Louis '99 (Holt, Hakim, Faulk, Bruce)
- San Diego '00 (F. Jones, R. Jones, Graham, Conway)
- San Francisco '98 (Stokes, Rice, Owens, Hearst)
- Tennessee Titans '00 (Pickens, Mason, George, Dyson)
That's all for now, it's a short week but I'll see you next week and we'll
take a healthy look at tight ends and why they frustrate you so much, no matter
what the end of the year production says.
Cheers!
Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:
- 1 point per 25 yards passing
- 1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing
- 4 points per passing TD
- 6 points per rushing or receiving TD
- -1 per interception thrown
2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen
and Ken Maxwell
for providing the relevant statistical databases
3) Feel free to contact me ([email protected]) if you wish to
discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues
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