A number of wide receivers had pretty disappointing opening weeks. Jerry Porter, Troy Brown, and Quincy Morgan had only one catch each; Todd Pinkston, David Boston, Curtis Conway, and Peerless Price had two catches each. Marvin Harrison had nine catches, but for only 44 yards.

How worried should the owners of those receivers be, if at all? How much does a poor showing in week 1 matter?

For a preliminary, statistical answer to that question, review Doug Drinen's column from a year ago. Doug looked at all the WRs from 1995 through 2001 who (a) had been a top 20 WR in the previous year, and (b) got at least one reception in the first week of the season. Doug ended up with 121 WR-seasons and concluded from them that "an established WR's week 1 performance should not affect your opinion of him." Among the WRs in the sample, the ones who performed well (fantasy-wise) in week 1 did about the same over the rest of the season, on average, as the ones who performed poorly in week 1. The trend did not reverse itself in 2002. If you were overly discouraged by the poor week 1 performances of Jerry Rice (2 catches, 25 yards) or Terrell Owens (4 catches, 41 yards) - or, for that matter, overly excited about the performance of Qadry Ismail (6 catches, 84 yards, 2 TDs) - you shouldn't have been.

One year's worth results is too small a sample to mean anything by itself, but in case you're interested: using the same method Doug used in last year's article, the results for 2001 were as follows:

The complete data set is at the bottom of this page.

With that in mind, I will now look at the WRs with the most disappointing week 1 performances from this year and offer some opinions on which guys you should be concerned about and which guys you shouldn't. (Note that of the following group of WRs, only Marvin Harrison and Peerless Price finished in the top 20 last year; so, strictly speaking, the others do not qualify as "established WRs" under the criteria used in Doug Drinen's study referred to above. However, I believe the general principle involved - that week 1 performances by WRs should do little to change your mind about their prospects for the rest of the season - is also true for highly-regarded WRs who did not finish in the top 20 in the previous year.)

Jerry Porter: WR Jerry Porter took himself out of the game in the first quarter due to a re-aggravation of his strained abdominal muscle. He was listed as questionable for week 2's game on Wednesday, but will likely be downgraded to doubtful on Friday's injury report. The Raiders' medical staff reportedly thinks Porter should be ready to play this week, but Porter disagrees and flew to Tampa Bay on Wednesday to receive a second opinion from a doctor of his own choosing. Porter was widely expected to become the Raiders #2 target this year, if not #1, but this is an injury that has the potential to linger. When healthy, Porter is a big, fast receiver with excellent quickness and overall athleticism who has improved his footwork and route-running skills. However, Porter owners should be concerned about the possibility that he could miss extended time during the first part of the season.

Todd Pinkston: Pinkston took a few years to get comfortable in the Eagles' somewhat complicated pass offense, but many people are expecting a breakout season for him in 2003. He established himself in the latter part of last year as the Eagles' #1 WR, and will try to build on that performance this year. He has a frail build, but has good hands, long arms, and the speed to make plays downfield. He is also a precise route-runner who excels at beating man-to-man coverage. He got off to a poor start this year against the NFL's toughest defense, but it's fair to give any offensive player a mulligan against Buccaneers. The fact that Pinkston had only half as many receiving yards last week as Warren Sapp did is no reason to panic. When QB Donovan McNabb is on his game (he completed only 11 passes for 90 yards to his WRs last week), Pinkston will prove to be a legitimate fantasy WR. The preseason FBG projection of 9.1 fantasy points per game still appears to be about right.

Troy Brown: The Patriots' whole offense was shut down last week by the Bills, and Troy Brown was no exception, hauling in a single pass for ten yards. Brown is a quick WR who excels on short routes, finding soft spots against short zones. He has excelled in the past on short slant patterns and WR screens; and it is possible that NFL defenses are defending those plays better now than they did in the previous few seasons. If so, Brown's effectiveness may be partially limited. Another concern is that Brown tends to take a lot of hits after the catch and has had trouble staying healthy for a full season at a time. Nonetheless, I would expect Troy Brown to rebound from his poor week 1 performance this weekend as he faces an Eagle defense that is not at full strength, missing S Brian Dawkins and CB Bobby Taylor. Overall, I think the FBG projections of 9 fantasy points per game for Troy Brown still look like a good bet.

Quincy Morgan: Quincy Morgan caught only one ball for 14 yards against the Colts. He and the Browns are hoping to rebound this week against a Raven defense that surrendered 34 points to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Morgan played with an injured hip last week but it does not appear to be serious. He is listed as probable on Wednesday's injury report and is practicing this week at full speed. Morgan is most feared as a deep threat, and has the athleticism to make big plays down the field. He is also an effective runner after the catch. His route-running and his hands must become more consistent, but he has the physical tools to develop into one of the league's most dangerous receivers. Consider his poor week one performance an aberration; I would still expect him to be the Browns' #1 WR this year and to finish the season with over 1,000 receiving yards.

Curtis Conway: Conway was working well with Chad Pennington throughout training camp and the preseason, but Vinny Testaverde did not look his way much in the first regular season game. Conway runs good patterns, has good speed and hands, and is a fine runner after the catch. His biggest problem over the course of his career has been staying healthy. He is at his best on deep routes, but it remains to be seen how that will mesh with Vinny Testaverde's style of play. Testaverde has the strong arm to go downfield, but looked very hesitant and conservative in the opener against the Redskins. Also, Testaverde has the tendency to lock onto a single receiver, and he appears to be most comfortable throwing to Wayne Chrebet. Conway owners should be concerned about the Jets' inability or unwillingness to attack the Redskins downfield with Testaverde at the helm, and will have to hope that Testaverde plays more to his own strength - throwing the deep ball - in the future. I expect Conway to have a productive second half of the season, but his overall stats will suffer while he and Testaverde take a few weeks to get in sync with each other's games.

David Boston: Boston managed just two catches for 20 yards in the opener against what was supposed to be a weak Chiefs secondary. He was not listed on the injury report during week 1, but was not at full strength, suffering from a sore heel that made it hard to plant his weight on his left foot. It appears as of this writing that Boston will sit out this week's practices and the week 2 game against the Broncos, and try to be 100% for the week 3 game against the Ravens. The several doctors who have checked Boston out agree that his heel has no structural damage - it is just a soft tissue injury. Nonetheless, it is not a good sign that the injury has lasted as long as it has, after hindering Boston throughout training camp and the preseason. After the game against the Chiefs, CB Eric Warfield remarked that he thought Boston lacked speed. Meanwhile, Boston attributed his inability to separate from defenders to his heel injury. Even if Boston returns at full strength in week 3 (as he should), I still have substantial concerns about him this year as a wide receiver. He is not a complete WR who can run every pattern and catch the ball consistently. Rather, he seems to do will with just two types of routes: (a) short hitches and slants where he can run with the ball after the catch, and (b) deep fly patterns. (Yes, Eric Warfield, Boston still has plenty of straight-ahead speed when he is healthy.) However, Boston does not get out of his cuts quickly and does not have great lateral quickness. Despite his size, he can be bumped at the line; and he will never be great at running the 15-yard out or other intermediate patterns that require precision rather than speed and strength. At this point, it is very difficult to make any projections for Boston without seeing how the Chargers will use him when he is at full speed, but there is a good chance that he will fail to live up to his fantasy draft position in most leagues.

Peerless Price: Peerless Price had only two catches in the opener against the Cowboys, although one was a highlight-worthy grab along the sideline near scoring territory. Price has fine speed and quickness and is one of the league's premier deep threats. His main weakness is defeating the jam at the line of scrimmage, and rookie CB Terence Newman stayed in his face for much of the day. With Brian Finneran sidelined with a broken hand for the next four to six weeks, Price can expect to receive extra attention from opposing defenses that may include a lot of press coverage. Price, who has never been his team's #1 WR in the NFL before, will have to learn to escape the jam and beat the occasional double-team if he is going to put up good fantasy numbers this year. He is a hard worker and has the athleticism to do it, so Price owners should not be in a panic at this point. QB Doug Johnson is a fine passer who will find ways to get Price the ball until Vick gets back - after which the mere presence of Vick will open up the passing game a bit as opposing defenses must devote a linebacker or safety to "spying" on Vick to contain him when he runs. If you have other good options at WR, you might consider resting Price for a week or two until you are more comfortable with his role in the Falcons' offense, but I think his projected 9.6 fantasy points per game over the course of the season is still on the mark.

Marvin Harrison: Marvin Harrison had 9 receptions in week one, but they went for only 44 yards. There should be no concern here at all: in fact, his 44 yards in week 1 of this year is better than the 34 yards he had in week 1 of last year, when he finished the season with 1,772 yards. Harrison rivals Jerry Rice for the title of Best Route-Runner in the NFL, and he has better quickness and speed than Rice. Whoever drafted Harrison in your league probably knows better than to panic at this point, but if he doesn't, go ahead and try to trade for him. Harrison is a true fantasy stud and is a consistent performer year-in and year-out; and 2003 will be no exception.

2002 WR Data

*Peerless Price was the 21st-ranked WR in 2001. Bill Schroeder was 20th, but did not catch a pass in the opening week of 2002.

Numbers are rounded to the nearest integer for display only; the numbers used in the calculations were not rounded.