After two weeks of NFL action, some of the fantasy leaders at each position are pretty much who we expected to see there, and some are total surprises. Historically, what percentage of players who were in the top 10 at their position after two weeks went on to remain top 10 performers over the rest of the season? Is the percentage much different for players who came out of nowhere versus players who did well the previous year? Are the first two weeks a better indicator of success than the previous year for any positions? If so, which ones?

Those are the types of questions this article will seek to address.

After two weeks, the current top ten lists for each position are as follows:

I've used the database available from Pro-Football-Reference.com to look at how the early top 10 performers from the past eight seasons have faired after their fast starts. Those eight seasons give us 40 top five players (after two weeks) at each position and 80 top ten players at each position to consider. What percentage of them went on to become top performers through weeks 3-17?

The first column shows the percentage of top 5 players at each position in weeks 1-2 who continued on as top 5 players at their position from weeks 3-17. The second column shows the percentage of top 5 players at each position in weeks 1-2 who continued on as top 10 players at their position from weeks 3-17. The third column shows the percentage of top 10 players at each position in weeks 1-2 who continued on as top 10 players at their position from weeks 3-17. The fourth column shows the percentage of top 10 players at each position in weeks 1-2 who continued on as top 20 players at their position from weeks 3-17.

At first glance, it appears that TEs who get off to a fast start hold their value better than players from other positions, while WRs who get off to a fast start retain their value the least well. However, comparisons across positions are not quite as simple as they may seem since there are more starting NFL RBs and WRs than there are QBs and TEs. If we therefore comparing the 5-5 and 5-10 columns for TEs with the 10-10 and 10-20 columns for WRs, we see that TEs still retain their value better than WRs, but the gap is narrowed. Moreover, if we consider the top 5 QBs and TEs and the top 10 RBs and WRs to be high-quality starters, it looks like it's the high-quality RBs, rather than the TEs, who actually retain their value the best over the remainder of the season.

Does a high-quality start this year mean as much as a high-quality season last year? The next chart is similar to the last one, except it substitutes the previous year's finish for the subject year's first two weeks. For example, the first column shows the percentage of top 5 players at each position from the previous season who became top 5 players at their position from weeks 3-17 of the next season.

For QBs, a fast start in the first two weeks of the season looks like about as good a predictor of success as a solid previous year was. For the other positions, the previous year is generally a better predictor than the first two weeks.

How about players who were top finishers the previous season and off to a fast start in the first two weeks of the following season?

The first two numbers in the headings of each column indicate ranks from the previous year and from the first two weeks of the following year. The third number indicates rank from weeks 3-17 of the following year. For example, 50% of the QBs who finished in the top 5 at their position the previous year and got off to a top 5 start the following year continued on as top 5 QBs in weeks 3-17; 71.42% of those same players continued on as top 10 QBs in weeks 3-17; 58.82% of the RBs who finished in the top 10 at their position the previous year and got off to a top 10 start the following year continued on as top 10 RBs in weeks 3-17.

Not surprisingly, the players who did well both the previous year and the first two weeks of the next year held their value better than players from either of the preceding charts.

One more chart before we finish up. I'm going to use "high-quality" to mean top 5 for QBs and TEs, and top 10 for RBs and WRs. In the chart below, "Last Year Only" refers to players who were high-quality last year, but not in the first two weeks of the following year. "First 2 Weeks Only" refers to players who were high-quality in the first two weeks, but were not high-quality the previous year. "Both" refers to players who were high-quality both the previous year and the first two weeks of the following year. The following chart shows the percentage of the relevant groups who continued on to give high-quality performances in weeks 3-17 of the season.

For each position, the players who were high-quality performers the previous year, but not in the first two weeks of the following season (e.g., Rich Gannon this year), held their value better on average than the players who were high-quality performers in the first two weeks of one season, but not over the course of the previous season (e.g., Jay Fiedler this year). The difference, however, is less pronounced with QBs than with other positions.

Conclusions: Frankly, it is impossible to draw any firm conclusions about individual players from a study like this. The numbers above can provide some perspective or provide a context in which to consider questions such as: Is Rich Gannon still more valuable than Jay Fiedler, and if so by how much? But to actually answer that question satisfactorily, you must take into account specific information about those individual players, and not just group averages. Nonetheless, awareness of overall patterns or trends can often help inform one's analysis of individual players. I will conclude with lists of players who fit into each of the categories from the last chart.

QBs

Last Year Only: Rich Gannon, Peyton Manning

Two Weeks Only: Jeff Garcia, Jay Fiedler, Tommy Maddox, Patrick Ramsey

Both: Daunte Culpepper, Drew Bledsoe

RBs

Last Year Only: LaDainian Tomlinson, Tiki Barber, Charlie Garner, Eddie George

Two Weeks Only: Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, Garrison Hearst, Moe Williams

Both: Priest Holmes, Travis Henry, Ricky Williams, Clinton Portis, Shaun Alexander, Deuce McAllister

WRs

Last Year only: Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Peerless Price, Joe Horn, Donald Driver

Two Weeks Only: Anquan Boldin, Laveranues Coles, Chris Chambers, Darrell Jackson, Torry Holt, Chad Johnson

Both: Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Eric Moulds,

TEs

Last Year Only: Todd Heap, Tony Gonzalez, Jeremy Shockey, Bubba Franks

Two Weeks Only: Alge Crumpler, Freddie Jones, Jim Kleinsasser, Christian Fauria

Both: Shannon Sharpe

Scoring System:
4 pts = TD pass
6 pts = TD run/catch
1 pt = 20 YD pass
1 pt = 10 YD run/catch
-1 pt = INT