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Volume 4 Issue 104a (August 28th)



We've got Bob Harris' weekly Fantasy Notebook ready for you but first a quick word about our Footballguys and Myfantasyleague.com League Management

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Hi Folks,

Of all the stuff we do at Footballguys.com, one of the things I'm most excited about this year is that we'll be featuring my good friend Bob Harris. All season long Harris will bring you some of the most detailed insights you'll find anywhere. Bob's always done a few things for us, throwing out a teaser here and there. But to get the full stories, you had to subscribe to his Flashupdate Report.

But now, Footballguys.com readers are getting the total package from Bob as he's our Senior NFL Analyst. We'll be holding nothing back as he brings to you all the Team Notes, Matchup Info and Breaking News that used to be just for his Flashupdate subscribers. I personally would pay twice our subscription cost just for Harris' stuff (And I used to do just that for several years before we started working together)

Sample of the Team Notes Subscribers will receive in season
Sample of the Matchup Info Subscribers will receive in season
Sample of the Late Breaking Updates Subscribers will receive in season

But we couldn't wait until September to start hitting you with Bob's stuff. Here's a small taste of what we'll be doing. I asked him to throw together some random thoughts and opinions he sees each week and here's what happens. Let me know what you think by sending an email to [email protected].

Let's get right to it. Take it away, Bob.

Joe

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Fantasy Reporter's Notebook with Bob Harris/August 28, 2003
A weekly review of Fantasy-specific news and notes of interest

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I know many of you are trying to get a better handle on Minnesota's running back situation and where exactly Onterrio Smith fits into the picture.

And I believe the answer to that question can be found by reviewing Michael Bennett's rookie season. Not that I necessarily think Smith will be limited to posting the same totals, but I do think you'll see similarities in the way they're brought along.

For the record, Bennett started 13 games in 2001, racking up 682 yards and two touchdowns on 172 carries. He added another 226 yards and a TD on 29 receptions.

So why can't Smith be the guy from day one?

Pro Football Weekly hit the nail on the head in an article published Monday, when they suggested head coach Mike Tice is not going to stand for turnovers. Period.

The piece went on to note that unable to decide which running back he wants as his starter, Tice is taking a hard look at ball security. Larry Ned, the frontrunner early in training camp, already has multiple fumbles in preseason action. Doug Chapman recovered his only bobble. In a preseason game vs. Oakland, favorite Onterrio Smith put the ball on the ground and was immediately removed from the game, though the Vikings recovered.

"I'm not going to worry about fumbles," Smith said.

But as PFW pointed out, he doesn't have to, because Tice will worry enough for both of them.

Tice already has announced that he is not comfortable starting Smith in the season opener at Green Bay on Sept. 7. Which is why Moe Williams will line up as the opening day starter.

Minneapolis Star Tribune staffer Kent Youngblood further illuminated the situation in an article published Wednesday, when he wrote:

"Scott Linehan was sweating. Hands on his hips, he was trying to regain his breath. Practice had just ended and Linehan, the Vikings' offensive coordinator, had just finished his daily exercise -- sprints on the field in the hot, late-summer sun.

"'Here's the way I look at it,' Linehan said, between gasps. 'Moe Williams is a guy who will not be standing there on the first play, opening day, breathing fast.'

"This was not a comment on Williams' physical condition, but his mental makeup -- and what that means for a coach's peace of mind.

"Williams might not take your breath away, but he's easy on the nerves."

And that single line explains the team's outlook in a nutshell.

With an offense boasting two of the top skill players in the league in Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss, you don't necessarily need a running back to win you games. You do, however, need one that won't lose any.

That's why Tice said he was planning on starting Williams ahead of Doug Chapman, even before a severe right ankle sprain knocked Chapman out of the opening-day picture. To a coach such as Tice, Williams is a 6-1, 205-pound security blanket.

"You talk about insurance policies," Tice said. "Thank God he's here right now. ... He doesn't make many mistakes. He's just a pro. He's not a big talker. He's very fit, very strong, has very, very strong hands. He does everything well. Nothing great -- but nothing bad."

And sometimes, nothing bad is the best thing possible.

Does that mean Smith won't see just as much -- if not more -- action that Williams, as early as Week 1. No. It just means that Smith won't be an every-down back until Tice feels comfortable in his ability to protect the football, and perhaps more importantly, protect Daunte Culpepper from opposing blitzers.

Bottom line? I suspect the presence of a less-experienced replacement bodes well for Williams, who faced the prospect of Bennett getting more goal line work this fall than he did a year ago. And even if Smith comes on fast enough to supplant Williams as the starter before the end of September, it's hard to imagine him playing well enough to earn the level of confidence coaches already have in the reliable Williams -- especially in vital scoring situations.

(JOE'S NOTE: if you're mixed on the Onterrio Smith situation, join the crowd. For what it's worth, even on our own staff, we've got some sharply divided opinions. Bob makes his case above. My partner, David Dodds falls pretty much in line with Bob. I personally feel Smith will do quite a bit better. You'll often hear the line "Speed Kills" thrown out when describing why one team dominates another. I think you can just as easily put "Talent Kills" into that same category of truths. Sure, you have the Ryan Leafs and the Lawrence Phillips but in most cases, the guy with talent is tough to keep off the field all things being equal. Moe Williams is a nice security blanket but I just don't think they'll be able to keep Onterrio Smith off the field. I don't see a 2003 version of Clinton Portis but personally I see more than a rookie Michael Bennett. Who's right? That's why they play the games. I just wanted to clear that up as we're not in unison on that one as a staff.)

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According to the Sports XChange, Jeff Blake appears comfortable with the offense and some potential head-turning no-names are on the verge of surfacing among an inexperienced receiving corps: Larry Foster and Bryan Gilmore appear to be locked in as the starters, with Anquan Boldin and Jason McAddley working at Nos. 3 and 4.

The major disappointment has been the failure of first-round pick Bryant Johnson, chosen 17th overall, to make a mark either in the receiving rotation, where he is No. 5 at the moment, or as the punt returner, where fellow rookie Boldin appears headed for the job.

(JOE'S NOTE: Jeff Blake left the Thursday night game with what's being described as a mild concussion he suffered on his first play. More updates coming soon)

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Just keeping you in the loop here: The Athens Banner-Herald reported early this week that Mike Vick continues to get good reports in his visits with Falcons orthopedist Andrew Bishop. His ligaments are holding his bones in place, which Bishop said was critical to Vick avoiding surgery.

Bishop indicated last week that Vick could return as early as Week 5 for Atlanta's home game with Minnesota.

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The Bears continued to be discouraged by third-year receiver David Terrell. One source told PFW: "He looks like a first-round pick one day, and a waterboy the next."

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Also according to PFW: Jason Elam nailed 62-of-65 field-goal attempts during live practice drills in training camp, missing only from 42, 56 and 65 yards out.

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According to the Washington Post, the Saints haven't abandoned efforts to work out a trade with the Redskins for either Ladell Betts or Kenny Watson.

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While they didn't offer him a contract, the fact that team officials had veteran place-kicker Todd Peterson in for a workout Wednesday afternoon served as a clear-cut message to Jeff Chandler: Shape up or we'll ship you out.

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Following up on an item in last night's Footballguys e-mail update. ... Carroll County Times staff writer Aaron Wilson advised readers this morning that the impending decision at quarterback will hinge heavily on what transpires in the tonight's preseason finale tonight against the New York Giants.

"It's one more evaluation," said head coach Brian Billick, who has yet to have the same quarterback begin consecutive seasons entering his fifth year in Baltimore. "I'm looking for the same thing that I was looking for before: efficiency and a certain ability to orchestrate the offense and the ability to make a play down the field."

A week after Kyle Boller's subdued starting debut against the Washington Redskins, indicators again point toward the first-round draft pick opening the game under center. Boller has taken the majority of the repetitions with the first offense all week with Chris Redman running the second team, according to reserve quarterback Anthony Wright and several other offensive players.

Traditionally, the quarterback who starts the final preseason game will open the season in the top spot and by golly, tonight Boller was that man.

Which reminds me of something I wrote in this spot back on July 16, when I asked:

"Anybody else out there get the feeling Billick would kill for an excuse to throw Kyle Boller into the fray immediately?"

Okay. ... He didn't have to kill anybody, but otherwise I was pretty close

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There you have it boys and girls. This was the final Fantasy Reporter's Notebook of the preseason. Those of you wise enough to purchase regular season subscriptions this year will see me next week -- in a HUGE way. I wish the rest of you the best of luck. You're going to need it -- especially if there are any Footballguys in your league.

Bob Harris
Senior NFL Analyst - www.Footballguys.com

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