Quarterbacks

Tim Rattay, SF vs Atl
Every week I'll try to cover at least one or two players that really are a stretch to use as a starter. Nevertheless, Rattay is the week one poster boy. We're not completely confident he'll be a great option this year, but he sure has a nice matchup to begin the season at home. The Falcons defense is lacking their playmaking rookie corner DeAngelo Hall. It's also worth pointing out the Falcons were the most QB friendly team in the league last year. Honestly, this could turn out to be the best week to start Rattay all year, but that doesn't mean you should expect top 10 numbers either. The Falcons defense is suspect until proven otherwise, but the 49ers offense lost a TON of talent from last year so Rattay deserves a look, but doesn't have my complete confidence as a bon-a-fide fantasy starter. To open the season, it's hard to believe you wouldn't have a better option, but if you have a mediocre starter and Rattay's nice matchup is causing you to tempt fate - it might be worth rolling the dice.

Jake Delhomme, CAR vs GB
The Panthers passing offense could start off right where they ended last season - on a roll. The Packers defense is lacking a strong pass rush and their best cover corner is holding out. This isn't good news for a team who allowed the 2nd most fantasy pts to opposing QBs in 2003. Meanwhile, Delhomme's offensive line has taken a beating in the off-season but the Panthers return with all of their skilled players intact - plus rookie Keary Colbert to provide depth and playmaking ability when they spread the field. Despite his relative lack of experience, Delhomme is a solid sleeper and someone you should have some confidence in - he's battle-tested through the playoffs and he's playing at home. Compared to Rattay - I definitely have more confidence in Delhomme to produce starter-quality numbers at the end of the day.

David Carr, HOU vs SD
Looking for a QB who could outperform their average week to week performance? Carr is a good candidate. He's facing a Chargers defense that allowed the 3rd most fantasy pts to QB a year ago. The Bolts defense has a different look as they switched over to a 3-4 scheme for this year, but there's little turnover or new blood so we're not sure what to expect from Marty Ball. On the other hand, Carr's surrounding talent is coming together nicely and the offensive line appears to be improved also. I wouldn't expect top 10 numbers necessarily, but... Carr could easily throw for 200+ yards and a pair of TDs, which would put him within that range. If you followed the "load up on RBs and WRs" draft script and are left managing QBs generally outside of the top 10 -- then Carr is a decent choice this week all things considered.

Josh McCown, Ari at StL
McCown is a risky play in week 1, but with that risk comes the possibility of a big reward. The negative factors begin with the Cardinals injury-depleted offense - Shipp and Boldin are out for a while, Fitz and Bryant Johnson just started practicing and according to Denny Green appear a little "rusty". They are playing on the road and McCown has just a handful of NFL starts under his belt. If that doesn't deter you then keep reading.. The Rams defense also have a plethora of injuries and defections heading into 2004. Grant Wistrom was their best all-around DE and he's gone. That puts a lot of pressure on Leonard Little to maintain a good pass rush, only he'll have to do it quickly.. because the Rams corners are also banged up. Travis Fisher is out for a long while and he was their best corner. It's gotten so bad they brought back Jason Sehorn, who promptly failed his physical. McCown adds a little something to his fantasy stats because he's not afraid to run with the ball. That's fine and helps the bottom line, but in the long run it also puts McCown in the line of fire and dramatically increases his chance of getting hurt. McCown looks like a "middle of the road" option for week 1 - so he's a definite reach on many levels, but if you can live with the risk you might get rewarded because he could be throwing an awful lot if the Rams offense jumps out to an early lead.

Drew Bledsoe, BUF vs Jax
Drew Bledsoe and the Bills offense didn't exactly tear up their pre-season competition and there are signs that the new offense implemented by Mike Mularkey could take time to get off the ground. So, I'm taking a bit of a cautiously optimistic approach here. Bledsoe has better weapons around him and finally will have a healthy Eric Moulds to keep the defense honest - something he lacked most of last season. The Jags defense has the talent to be very good, but they are lacking a pair of true DEs who can rush the passer with authority and their corners are either underwhelming (Washington) or unproven (Mathis). If Drew has the time to setup and find his targets, then he could be worthwhile. Playing at home for a season-opener never hurts either.

Rex Grossman, CHI vs Det
Now, we're really getting to the bottom of the barrel. No disrespect to you Bears fans, but color me doubtful. I'm not a believer of Rex Grossman at this point. I'm not saying he won't be successful, but I'm hesitant to stick my neck out for the guy until he shows me a little more than he has to this point. Then again, they are facing the divisional rival Li-downs to start the season - at home nonetheless. Detroit finished 2003 as the 3rd best matchup for opposing fantasy QBs allowing 235+ ypg and almost 2 TDs/gm. The Bears offensive line is improved, but we're talking about a greenhorn QB with a new offensive system and a lot of new pieces to the puzzle - which means question marks galore. I approach the Bears/Lions game with nervousness - I anticipate some big performances coming out of this game, but good luck trying to put your finger on who they'll be.. Grossman or Harrington? Maybe both? That's why we're talking serious reaches.. there are easily 12 better options at QB this week, but either of these guys conceivable could approach that production level.. but don't bet the farm on it.

Running Backs

Kevin Jones, Det at CHI
The Bears defensive scheme has changed and the Lions offense has undergone a serious face lift since last season. The Lions finally have some talented WRs to work with - and no shortage of speed to keep the Bears defense honest. Kevin Jones will benefit from the improvements in the Lions offense - of which he's a key factor obviously. I suspect Jones will get off to a good start on the season and finish around the top 20 RBs this week - making him a potentially strong, but likely average #2 RB.

Thomas Jones, CHI vs Det
Detroit's run defense wasn't terrible last year, but it wasn't anything to fear either. The front four are solid against the run with Shaun Rogers and Dan Wilkinson giving them a solid 1-2 combination at DT. The d-line isn't an issue. It's the LBs and secondary that draw our attention. Boss Bailey is out for perhaps the entire year and James Davis, Brock Marion and Fernando Bryant have all been slowed by injuries during the pre-season as well. Bottom line - the Lions defense has better talent than a year ago but with all the question marks and injuries if could take a while before they get on the same page. The positive thing to note here is that Dick Jauron is the Lions defensive coordinator and he's VERY FAMILIAR with the Bears offensive personnel - at least those still there anyway. Jones was the hand-picked back for Terry Shea's offensive system which is expected to feature Jones in both the running and passing attack. The downside for Jones begins with goal line opportunities - will A-Train take over there? All signs point towards a productive day for Jones, but we've all walked down this path before with him -- so it's ok to be skeptical, but don't be afraid to gamble on him this week. He's in a good situation against a defense that won't hit their stride for a few weeks probably.

Warrick Dunn, Atl at SF
The Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy RBs. It's a good thing James Stewart isn't around now.. Dunn has the title all to himself now. The 49ers defense was beaten badly on the ground last season to the tune of 144 ypg. T.J. Duckett will get more love from the average fantasy guy because of his size and double-digit TDs last year, but make no mistake about it - Dunn is a better all-around back who can run, catch and make more big plays. As the dual-purpose back, he could easily top 100 yds this week and he's a solid #2 back especially if your leagues scores pts for receptions. In TD only leagues, you want to go with Duckett and Dunn becomes a definite reach.

Julius Jones / Richie Anderson, Dal at MIN
We're not entirely sure what Tuna is going to do with his RBs this week. Eddie is the starter on paper, but I'm having a difficult time buying that he's going to see a majority of the carries. Until we get a clear picture (if ever) regarding the Cowboys running attack, I'm going on the expectation that Jones, Richie Anderson and Eddie George will likely get around 10-15 opportunities to touch the ball as a runner or receiver - give or take some either way. Look for Anderson to get the goal line touches and 3rd down receptions while George is the "starter" and Jones the "change of pace" guy. I know Tuna has said otherwise, but he says a lot of things that are motivational or simply for entertainment purposes. I gotta believe Jones will get more carries than Eddie, for my money, and if you forced my hand to make a decision - I'd gamble on starting JJ over George, with Anderson as my choice in TD only leagues. Either way, starting one of the Cowboys backs comes with HIGH risk this early in the season, so put this down in the deep sleeper category until the picture clears up.

Moe Williams / Onterrio Smith, MIN vs Dal
On the flip-side of the Cowboys mess of a running back attack is the Vikings own version muddied by the injury to Michael Bennett (who is out this week) and the pending suspension of Onterrio Smith. The expected pecking order this week begins with Moe Williams, who will start and likely get around half the carries - but probably the most meaningful ones near the goal line as well as 3rd down opportunities. I won't be surprised to see rookie Mewelde Moore log some time in that capacity as well while Onterrio Smith could figure more prominently in the 2nd half if the Vikings hold the lead. All said, Williams is a decent bet to finish with around 50 to 80 combined yards and a TD. Smith is a bigger gamble as he could yield more yardage but isn't as good of a bet to find the end zone.

Wide Receivers

Brandon Lloyd, SF vs Atl
If you ask some people, Lloyd probably shouldn't be among those listed as "sleepers".. and those people are probably right, or at least I would tend to agree with them. If you are looking for a WR with a golden opportunity to get off to a fast start -- Lloyd is your man. He's the #1 receiving option for the 49ers going up against a Falcons secondary that has a lot to prove. Much improvement was expected this season but that has been tempered by the injury to playmaking rookie corner DeAngelo Hall. The Falcons were the 3rd best matchup for opposing WRs a year ago and appear to be a favorable matchup for Lloyd and the 49ers beginning this season as well. I would have no qualms with Lloyd in my lineup this week. You probably drafted him with the hope he would be a player to emerge this year. So, throw him right into the fire because this matchup should be a great indicator for the rest of the season. Pssssssstt... don't forget about Cedrick Wilson, if we want to be purists about the term "sleeper", he probably fits the bill better and certainly has less fanfare than Lloyd.

Andre' Davis, CLE vs Bal
The Ravens defense is an intimidating matchup if you own any of the Browns players. However, if I were to gamble on any one of them having a decent game I'd put my money down on Davis first and probably Dennis Northcutt second. I'm just not a big believer in Quincy Morgan after being burned numerous times by him in the past, so count me on the skeptical side. Morgan is a boom/bust type with the emphasis unfortunately on the bust more often than not. Davis, on the other hand, is a more reliable option and a player who has yet to reach his potential. The Ravens defense is aggressive and forces turnovers but if there is a weakness it's giving up the big pass play - something Davis or Morgan bring to the table for Cleveland. I wouldn't annoint Davis as a sure-fire starter, but if you want to gamble on him as a #3 he's worth it. I'm not looking for much from the Browns running game this week and I expect they'll be throwing frequently in the 2nd half utilizing more spread formations or 3 WR sets. So beyond Davis you could take a real reach and try Northcutt, but honestly none of these guys are great plays - I just happen to like Davis and think he could be the one to hit pay dirt - if anyone does for the Browns.

Justin Gage / Bobby Wade / David Terrell, CHI vs Det
As mentioned above in Grossman's analysis, the Lions secondary appears vulnerable. Dre' Bly is a gambler. He makes a lot of big plays and forces turnovers, but he also gives up his share of plays, too. Fernando Bryant is also a bit of a gambler. Neither corner has tremendous size which gives both Terrell and Gage an advantage in the red zone. Look for Grossman to toss 1 or 2 TDs this week and if I had to guess who will catch them, I'd go in this order: 1. Terrell 2. TE Desmond Clark 3. Gage. Bobby Wade also deserves a serious look. He's starting and could ultimately prove to be the most consistent WR option amongst these three. He's smaller, but more polished in his route running and might have the most receptions, but Terrell or Gage are more likely to score a TD.

Nate Burleson, MIN vs Dal
For the record, Kelly Campbell should be in this conversation also, but he's much more of a reach unless you are in a TD only league, where he then becomes a little more palatable. The Cowboys defense was more than solid a year ago, but heading into this year there are some questions emanating from the secondary. Mario Edwards gone. Darren Woodson hurt. Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss will draw much if not ALL of their attention leaving Burleson and to a lesser extent Campbell (working from the slot) in more single coverage. Burleson has looked good to me in the pre-season and was already on my short-sleeper list at WR heading into the season. Moss can't catch all the TDs, well on second thought.. yeh, he CAN.

Larry Fitzgerald, Ari at STL
Yeh, I know Fitz is looking rusty... the Cardinals offense is a scary proposition.. Fitz is just a rookie. He hardly has much practice under his belt, much less game experience from the pre-season. blahblahblah.. Call me crazy, but I think the Nutty Professor has something up his sleeve. If/when the Cardinals get into the red zone, don't think for a second Green won't try to deploy Fitzgerald and get him a TD in their first game. I hate to base stuff like this on gut instincts, but I'll call a spade a spade.. and that's exactly what this is - so take it with a grain of salt if you will. If you want a serious sleeper from the Cardinals this week, then consider Bryant Johnson or Nate Poole. Otherwise, I'll go with Fitz as a potential #3/#4 WR who could catch 3-5 passes and score - if he's lucky.

Eric Parker, SD at HOU
Depending on who you talk to, Parker is either a worthwhile sleeper WRs or not worth the gamble. I happen to fall into the former category and think the guy has some solid potential if the Chargers offense ever evolves into something other than Tomlinson being the one-man marching band. Parker is certainly the best bet amongst the Chargers receivers - though I still consider him a 2nd option behind TE Antonio Gates. The Texans allowed the 5th most fantasy pts to opposing WRs last year and appear to have more work ahead of them before they emerge as a viable unit to be reckoned with. Parker is best used as a 4th WR, someone you can plug in during bye weeks or utilize in good matchups over your more talented #3 who has a horrible matchup. So, if you have Parker and the shoe fits, try it on.. you might be pleasantly surprised.

Some situational reaches you may consider also include:

Dante Hall - If you are still hanging your hat on Johnnie Morton then I'm sorry.. I've moved on a long time ago. As a Lions fan, I was never a big Morton guy when he was wearing the Honolulu Blue and Silver. His hands drive me nuts. He drops the easy 3rd down conversions but lays out an makes the spectacular over the shoulder diving catch. I don't buy whatever he's selling. I am, however, intrigued by Hall this week. He has a chance to make a big play already on special teams, but now he could potentially add 3-5 catches and an end around to his repertoire. All in all, not a terrible reach once you consider that Eddie Kennison will likely draw Champ Bailey.

Kevin Johnson - Johnson has a chance to face his former teammates to start the season. Outside of TE Todd Heap, Johnson is quite likely the most reliable, if not consistent WR on the Ravens roster. If you're still waiting for Travis Taylor to breakout, you probably have a license plate that says something like, "gotta love those 5th year receivers".. The reality of the situation is that either Taylor or Johnson could produce decent, though probably not great numbers. The whole idea of gambling on a player within this realm of sleepers or reaches is to utilize their upside in terms of talent and big play potential against a favorable matchup. Therein lies the problem with Johnson and Taylor - the upside is limited. Both could be serviceable players most weeks, but rarely will they ever breakout with one of those games that reward you for gambling on them, thus they are down here and not up at the top with guys like Davis, Burleson, Fitz, etc. The Browns defense was among the more stingy regarding fantasy pts scored by opposing WRs last year but that's also partially attributed to their poor run defense, but not completely. I'd lean towards Johnson over Taylor because I think he's a better possession WR and more likely to get open consistently, as opposed to Taylor who simply disappears from games without any real reason other than maybe he's a total bust? Ok, I'll try to be nicer to those former Gator WRs, but it is what it is..

Tight Ends

Billy Miller, HOU vs SD
The Chargers were horrible at covering TEs a year ago. I'm not sure that changing to the 3-4 scheme will help or hurt that trend, but try these numbers on for size -- 11 TDs. That's right. The Bolts allowed 11 TDs to opposing TEs a year ago - 4 more than the next defense. If the Texans coaching staff has any idea on how to game plan against the Chargers defense, one would have to think it would involve sending Billy Miller down the seams with Andre Johnson and Corey Bradford stretching the field and Domanick Davis softening up the middle of the defense with his running and receiving. Miller hasn't been too consistent since 2002, but he's lost weight this off-season and got back to what he does best - concentrate on being a receiving TE. This is simply a matchup you cannot ignore.

Desmond Clark, CHI vs Det
Let's keep this one pretty simple.. the Lions have been a hotbed for the past few seasons to start your TE against. Once their LB corps gets healthier and more experienced, this will likely change, but for now we gotta stick with the trend - start your TEs against the Lions. They allowed 7 TDs last year and 44 ypg to TEs - both 2nd highest in the league amongst defenses.

Others worth a reach....

Anthony Becht, NYJ vs Cin - Not a personal favorite of mine, but he can be a problem in the red zone. Pennington is healthy and primed for a big season and the Bengals were the 4th best matchup for TEs a year ago allowing 40 ypg and 5 TDs on the season.

Stephen Alexander, Det at Chi - If you are ever going to use Stephen Alexander, you better strike while the iron is hot. I mean... the guy might not be healthy by halftime so get IN while you can. Seriously, the Bears are another team that for whatever reason have allowed a lot of TDs to tight ends - 6 last year. Alexander is a solid player with skills, but he's like a china doll. With Roy Williams, Kevin Jones and Charles Rogers demanding attention, Alexander could sneak in a TD or at least produce 30 to 40 yards when you least suspect it.