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Offensive Sleepers of the Week

A look at players who are generally ranked outside of the starter ranks on a weekly basis. The players listed below are those which you may gamble on depending on conditions such as a favorable matchup or an opportunity created by injury. On the other hand, the player may be considered a normal starter with a bad matchup or high risk which makes him a reach. Generally, each position is covered beginning with those who are better bets and finishing with those who are certifiable reaches or long shots. Your mileage may vary, but the idea is to discuss these players and provide you with some analysis that might help you make those difficult lineup decisions a bit easier.

Quarterbacks

David Carr, Hou at DET
The Lions lost Pro Bowl corner and playmaker Dre' Bly to injury last week and he'll miss the next few games. Andre Goodman replaces him in the starting lineup, while Fernando Bryant should play after suffering a concussion last week. Andre Goodman fills in for Bly, but make no mistake about it, the Lions secondary is thin and reeling somewhat. Bracy Walker did a solid job replacing Walker and came up with the big plays in last week's win over the Bears, helping the Lions end a NFL record 24 game losing streak on the road. This week the Lions will hope for more turnovers and game-changing plays defensively to slow the Texans offense led by David Carr and Domanick Davis. The Lions did a solid job defending the run and appear to be fairly solid in the front seven. However, Davis is a multi-purpose back and can actually be more dangerous as a receiver with the Lions starting rookie Ted Lehman and James Davis at WLB. These two are athletic but still learning the ropes. Carr was on his way to a solid box score last week before turning the ball over twice. Look for Andre Johnson to bust loose this week going against either Goodman or Bryant, while Jabar Gaffney and Corey Bradford could also get in the act, too. This game makes for a nice discussion of Joey Harrington vs. David Carr, but I fully expect both QBs to produce solid, if not middle of the road fantasy stats. The key for Carr boils down to eliminating mistakes and keeping the Texans offense from self-destructing. If he can do that, he's a solid sleeper to finish near this week's top 10 fantasy QBs. Realistically, he'll throw 1 or 2 INTs due to the Ford Field factor and playing on the road, so temper your enthusiasm a bit and expect Carr to be no worse than 200+ yds, 1-2 TDs with a turnover or two. As a baseline, that's not a terrible reach, but certainly you'd be much better off with one of the handful of stud QBs.

Drew Brees, SD vs NYJ
I may be among the minority, but I still believe Drew Brees has what it takes to be a solid NFL QB. Unfortunately, his tenure as the Chargers starting QB will be short-lived and Philip Rivers will replace him sooner or later, but if he continues to play well like he did in week 1, it could wind up being later.. we shall see. Last week provided some good signs for Brees. Antonio Gates, as I've written about since last season, is emerging as a true go-to WR from the tight end position while Eric Parker and Reche Caldwell took some positive steps forward in week 1 as well. The Jets were carved up by "rookie" QB Carson Palmer last week and this week travel cross-country to contend with the Chargers up-and-coming offense. Obviously, they'll need to deal with LT first and foremost, which promises to open things up for Gates, Parker and Caldwell to make plays downfield and off the play-action. Brees looks like another sneaky play and I would not be surprised to see him once again show a decent command of the offense, limit his turnovers and produce 200+ yds and a pair of TDs. Folks, Antonio Gates is the real deal Holyfield. I can't stress it enough. Brees will utilize his superior athleticism and ability to get open downfield frequently to keep the chains moving. Certainly, Brees is not a slam dunk, but no one in this space ever is.. so, if you're looking for a reach, take a chance on the former Boilermaker even if he's running the Marty Ball show. You could do much worse.

Mark Brunell, Was at NYG
The Giants secondary was shredded last week by Donovan McNabb (and Terrell Owens) to the tune of 4 TDs and 330 yards. The Giants pass rush sacked McNabb twice, but lost FS Omar Stoutmire for the season. Meanwhile, the Redskins offense didn't exactly catch fire against the Bucs as Mark Brunell threw for only 125 yards on 13 completions, mostly because they had great success running the football with Clinton Portis. As a solid veteran NFL quarterback, Brunell isn't a terrible reach if you need to dig a little for a starter. Perhaps Gibbs will try to pick on the Giants secondary and follow the Eagles path to success. After all, it's a copy cat league and the Redskins have the offensive firepower in place to pull it off. The biggest pitfall I see here is the potential for Kurt Warner to succumb to blitzes and turn the ball over creating an early deficit, in which case I believe the Redskins offensive tendencies and production could be similar to last week. Run the clock and more classic Gibbs football - aggressive defense and a strong running attack. However, let's not forget Gibbs also had some terrific passing attacks, too, so Brunell could certainly be a viable option if you are weak at the position.

Jake Delhomme, Car at KC
The Chiefs have long been a haven for opposing QBs, but they are also a team that can be vastly different on the road compared to at home in front of the rabid Arrowhead fans - one of the better home field advantages in the league - if not the best. That could prove to be problematic for Delhomme and the Panthers passing attack. The Chiefs DE Vonnie Holiday is questionable this week with a groin injury, and while he's a streaky player, he's arguably their best pass rusher. The Chiefs also have some issues to deal with when it comes to defending the run. Look for the Panthers to work extra hard this week to get Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster going strong. The Broncos ran all over the Chiefs at Mile High last week, so this one will be interesting to see who wins the battle of the trenches, because the Panthers run defense was equally embarrassed by the Packers on MNF. Whoever defends the run better will ultimately take control of this game. If the Panthers can't get it going, they'll need Delhomme to be productive. Without explosive WR Steve Smith, that may prove to be a bit of a challenge. I like Delhomme, but I'm hesitant to recommend going with him this week. As I mentioned, I'm a bit concerned by the Chiefs defense in their home opener and the absence of Smith. Keary Colbert appears poised to slide into Smith's spot and produce, despite being a rookie, so I'm not going to write off Delhomme completely.

Joey Harrington, DET vs. Hou
The Texans were beaten last week by the Chargers in front of their home crowd. That hurt. Now, they hit the road to Motown and will face a Lions team that is looking to ride the wave of enthusiasm following their first road victory in 3+ years. The Lions are a solid team at home but lost their top WR Charles Rogers for the season - for the 2nd straight year - to a broken collarbone. Un-freaking-believable. While the loss of Rogers hurts, it's not the end of the world. Rookie Roy Williams stepped up and made some nice plays including an incredible one-handed grab that featured his top-shelf talent and ability. Joey should be fine because unlike last year the Lions actually have some true pros behind Rogers. Tai Streets slides into Rogers spot while Az Hakim will operate out of the slot, where he can be a difference maker. Aaron Glenn will likely draw Roy Williams with rookie Dunta Robinson sticking on Tai Streets. I expect Joey to produce this week. He didn't look particularly good last week against the Bears, but he's back at home and the pressure is building for him to lead this team to victory and into the playoffs. This week will go a long way towards defining his season and ultimate success this year as a fantasy QB.  

Ken Dorsey, SF at NO
Dorsey is an interesting candidate for sleeper duty this week, though admittedly, he's more of the extreme long shot variety for several reasons. He's making his first NFL start. He's on the road. And the receivers he's working with are also still getting their feet wet as starters in the league. Combine that with a very mediocre running attack last week and you have the potential for a bust situation or a mildly productive afternoon. The Saints secondary is nothing to fear, but they can bring the heat with their front seven. Dorsey completed 9 of 15 passes for 111 yards last week in less than half the game. I wouldn't recommend sticking your neck out this far and starting him this week, but he deserves a spot in the column as my "long shot of the week".

Running Backs

Lamar Gordon, Mia at CIN
Keeping this one short and to the point.. The Bengals were obliviated by the Jets and Curtis Martin last week. Gordon will start for the Dolphins struggling offense while Travis Minor is out and Sammy Morris is doubtful. Leonard Henry could get activated and see some time in relief of Gordon, but ultimately the table is set for Gordon to show his value this week. No real competition to take touches away from him and a defense that needs to rebound badly after getting their lunch handed to them last week. I expect the Bengals to rebound at home, and the Dolphins offensive line remains a work in progress (hey, I'm being nice here), so expect mediocre to very good numbers from Gordon. I think 100 total yards, a handful of catches and a possible TD are easily within reach making him perhaps this week's #1 sleeper RB that's not traditionally ranked within the realm of the starters. Depending on his production this week, that might change.

Kevin Jones, DET vs Hou
Jones flashed some of his vast potential last week but never really got on track. At home, on the fast track of Ford Field and buoyed by the fans, I expect him to maybe break loose for a few long gains this week and lay his claim to the starting job more firmly. Artose Pinner remains firmly in the picture at this point, and as Mooch describes the situation.. it's Jones as RB1a and Pinner as RB1b. Until something changes, expect more of the same. The Texans defense isn't particularly good, nor is it a particularly good matchup either. It's probably more middle of the road, but I like the home factor here and expect the Lions offense to roar a bit more, despite the loss of C-Rogers. KJ is going to be a heckuva back in this league, and we could get the first real flashes of his upside in this game. I'd recommend starting him, but only if you don't have a more servicable or reliable choice ahead of him. Sometimes you just gotta roll the dice.

Emmitt Smith, Ari at NE
Ole bluehair Emmitt proved to be a handful last week for the Rams. The Patriots were surprisingly steamrolled by the Colts and Edgerrin James last week, so what transpires in the desert this week could be the start of a trend or a rebound led by the inspired coaching of Bill Belichick. Either way, the key will be the play of NT Keith Traylor, who didn't live up to expectations last week and certainly didn't match the play of Ted Washington from the same spot last year. The Patriots will put every effort to stop the run this week and with Belichick's schemes should prove to be quite a stiff challenge for Josh McCown and the passing game of Arizona. For me, this matchup boils down completely to Emmitt vs. the Pats run defense.. Honestly, I'm not sure what to expect either. My gut says the Patriots will rebound and Emmitt will regress to the mean - so to speak. However, I'm not completely sold on that take either. Starting Emmitt is a gamble, but I did like what I saw from him last week and I won't write him off without giving him a chance to do it again. You know how it goes.. one week could be an aberration, two weeks begins a trend.. three weeks? Well, let's see what happens here first, then we'll cross that bridge.

Maurice Morris, Sea at TB
Obviously, Mo Mo is an injury play, because if Shaun Alexander is able to practice and play Sunday, his chances of being a productive fantasy RB decline drastically. That said, I suspect Holmgren will give Morris mo' carries either way to help Alexander get back to 100% and avoid the possibility of hurting his sprained knee further. As of the time of this writing, I don't know if Alexander was able to practice on Thursday or not. The Bucs run defense was beaten badly by the Redskins and Clinton Portis last week. They failed to register a sack, too. Seattle's offensive line is much better than Washington's, so if Mo Mo gets mo' playing time or if Alexander sits this one out, I really like him as a situational play for this week only.

Duce Staley, Pit at BAL
Staley may seem like more of a reach for two reasons. The most glaring deficiency in his fantasy game is his lack of touches near the goal line where Jerome Bettis snipered three TDs last week, but not far behind is a potentially rough matchup against Ray Lewis and the Ravens. Staley, though, contributes so much as a receiver that he could very well be productive despite the fact Bettis is likely to get those carries at the goal line. Then again, Staley could produce more than expected. Terrell Suggs is an excellent pass rusher, but he's still learning the ropes in coverage and defending the flats against the pass. Staley could give him fits this week with the Steelers running frequent short passing plays to Hines Ward to further supplement the ground game as well. Ultimately, Staley is the long shot of the RB though. Ray Lewis will see to it that he earns every year on the ground, but to me, the potential for Staley is his combined yardage and the long-shot he could break off a decent play in the red zone before Bettis takes the field - but I'd say that's more of the long-shot variety than something to take to the bank.

Chris Brown, TEN vs Ind (inj)
If Brown is deemed able to play and start, then I like his chances to produce. That said, I'm hesitant to start him myself in my money league simply because I have options with Edgerrin and Thomas Jones - both of which have tougher matchups. Brown strutted his stuff last week against the Dolphins gaining 100 yds in one half, most of which came on one play - a 52 yarder that also put him on the sidelines with a sprained ankle. It's hard to get a read on the severity of his sprain, but it sure sounds like he's going to play and he did manage to practice already, so I'd say he's looking more on the half-full side as opposed to half-empty. Your mileage may, of course, vary, but depending on the news I hear from now until Sunday morning, I may indeed put him in the lineup myself and take my chances.

Steven Jackson, Stl at ATL
Jackson has carved out a nice role for himself in the Rams offensive attack and figures to be featured near the goal line and frequently as a change-of-pace for Marshall Faulk. He showed his array of power and cut back abilities last week, and figures to be even more of a sleeper this week. The real value with Jackson hinges on whether or not he gets to sniff the goal line each week. I'm sticking my neck out and saying that I think he gets in the end zone against the Falcons. Kevan Barlow never got a chance last week - shame on you Dennis Erickson - but while Martz is a flake with his play-calling at times - I really think he knows what kind of talent he has here and will do everything he can to maximize that when he can.. so don't expect a 1st and goal and 4 straight passing plays from the Rams. Jackson could be a solid, if not deep sleeper, this week considering he's not even a starter on his own team (yet).

Wide Receivers

Brandon Lloyd, SF at NO
Targeted 13 times last week, we were hoping for better production, but let's hope for a rebound this time around against the Saints less-than-stellar secondary. That said, I highlighted Lloyd last week, but also reminded you not to overlook his counterpart Cedrick Wilson. The same applies this week. It's hard to gauge which one, if not both, will produce more this week, but going by the targets, I suspect we haven't seen the first nor the last of Mr. Lloyd and his acrobatic play-making ability.

Larry Fitzgerald, ARI vs NE
Yes, he's a rookie and yes he's likely going to draw Pro Bowl corner Ty Law. So what.. Fitz showed last week he's capable of producing great plays with his hands, size and incredible body control. He also showed he's likely going to be McCowns most targeted WR. With the Patriots offense firing on all cylinders and a high probability that the Pats run defense wakes up this week, I fully expect the Cards to be playing chase sooner rather than later in this game.. which means more opportunity for Fitz and likely even more targets than last week. Bryant Johnson could provide a spark or two as well, but if you're going to gamble on a Cardinals WR this week, despite the Law matchup, take your chances with the 2nd pick in the draft.

Muhsin Muhammad & Keary Colbert, Car at KC
Muhammy is back in the spot light for the Panthers aerial attack while Colbert slides into the lineup replacing the injured Steve Smith. The Chiefs corners have proven to be a productive matchup in years past and didn't do much to deflect that line of thinking last week. Heck, even Ashley Lelie looked pretty good at times. Expect Muhammy to be the most targeted WR here, but I really like the "chutzpah" that Colbert has displayed all season long going back to mini-camps. He's going to be a player in this league for a long time, and I wouldn't be surprised if he got off to a decent start this week against the Chiefs.

Roy Williams & Tai Streets, DET vs Hou
You read the script in my analysis above for Joey. Now let's apply it to the Lions WRs. Roy Boy will likely draw the coverage of Aaron Glenn, possibly even some double coverage despite his rookie status. While Tai Streets is more likely to draw the Texans rookie and more single-coverage. Streets is the REAL sleeper here because we all know that Roy Will is the real deal and will ultimately rise through the ranks to be a top-notch fantasy WR, but this is just his 2nd game as a pro, so he's still a bit of a gamble by all means. Lastly, don't forget about Az Hakim, who could be a playmaker in the slot where he's always been far more productive and comfortable.

David Givens, David Patten and Deion Branch, NE at ARI
I don't know how much I classify Branch as a sleeper. Quite honestly, I don't.. but due to how much Brady spreads the ball and the emergence of their double TEs and Daniel Graham as the potential "go to" guy in the offense in the red zone, I think all three of these WRs stand out as players who could either jump up into the top 20 any given week or fall back out of the top 40. The pecking order, though quite fuzzy for me, goes something like this: Branch, Givens then Patten. That's my take anyway.. I like Patten a lot and know his merits, but I prefer the size of Givens and the explosiveness of Branch. That said, I punt when picking anyone to be a sure-fire starter, thus I list all three as solid sleepers - each is perfectly capable of delivering the goods, especially with a soft matchup against the Cardinals D.

Donald Driver, GB vs Chi
Javon Walker gets most of the love. If not, Robert Ferguson seems to be the 2nd most talked about Packers WR. Somewhere lost in the shuffle is Driver, who is the only one of these three to actually have a 1,000 yard season and a Pro Bowl under his belt. Go figure. Similar to the Pats WRs above, anything can happen here and likely will... The Bears secondary is likely to get roasted here. They are without Jerry Azumah and R.W. McQuarters appears to still be quite gimpy with his hamstring. Look for Driver to be the sneaky play here.. Maybe my best reason, don't laugh, is that I've been in Green Bay all week and I can't help but get good vibes from the famous "painted fence" across the street from Lambeau, which for the time being features Driver's name, as in they are in the Driver's seat. Ok, you can stop laughing now. In all seriousness, Driver did have the most targets last week and I think he's a decent sleeper player here with the other two getting more love from the fantasy world.

Tight Ends

Billy Miller, Hou at DET
Miller hasn't exactly been a marvel of TE production over the last year, but I reiterate as I did last week, the Lions are a haven for TE success. Desmond Clark came close to making a big play last week, but bumbled it. Miller could prove to be a sleeper of the deeper variety this week, so if you are going to really stretch it, why not take a chance here. Ted Lehman is going to be a marvelous LB in the league for a long time, but he's learning the ropes so to speak and Miller has the kind of pass catching ability that could prove to be a stiff challenge for the rookie backer.

Bubba Franks, GB vs Chi
Just when you want to write off Bubba, he scores 2 TDs. The Packers, curiously, didn't feature their vintage play-action at the goal line last week, so I fully expect them to exploit their long-standing rivals with it this week. Everyone will be geared up to stop Ahman, then Favre's ego comes into play, and the quirkiness of the Packers playbook. The Bears have been beaten over their head with TEs last season, and I would not be the least bit surprised to see Franks have the typical 2 catches for 3 yards with 2 TDs stat line this week making him the Jerome Bettis of TEs.

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Sorry I'm going to have to cut this week's article a little short. I've been on the road for the real job this week and it's taken much of my time away from my fantasy efforts, but don't worry. I'll be back in the saddle with the customizable projections/cheats next week and the full array of my regular weekly duties here at FBG. Thanks for understanding and sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused.

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