Offensive
Sleepers of the Week |
by
Bob Henry, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
|
A look at players who are generally ranked
outside of the starter ranks on a weekly basis.
The players listed below are those which you may
gamble on depending on conditions such as a
favorable matchup or an opportunity created by injury.
On the other hand, the player may be considered
a normal starter with a bad matchup or high risk
which makes him a reach. Generally, each
position is covered beginning with those who are
better bets and finishing with those who are certifiable reaches
or long shots. Your mileage may vary, but the
idea is to discuss these players and provide you
with some analysis that might help you make
those difficult lineup decisions a bit easier.
Quarterbacks
David Carr, Hou at DET
The Lions lost Pro Bowl corner and playmaker
Dre' Bly to injury last week and he'll miss the
next few games. Andre Goodman replaces him in
the starting lineup, while Fernando Bryant
should play after suffering a concussion last
week. Andre Goodman fills in for Bly, but make
no mistake about it, the Lions secondary is thin
and reeling somewhat. Bracy Walker did a solid
job replacing Walker and came up with the big
plays in last week's win over the Bears, helping
the Lions end a NFL record 24 game losing streak
on the road. This week the Lions will hope for
more turnovers and game-changing plays
defensively to slow the Texans offense led by
David Carr and Domanick Davis. The Lions did a
solid job defending the run and appear to be
fairly solid in the front seven. However, Davis
is a multi-purpose back and can actually be more
dangerous as a receiver with the Lions starting
rookie Ted Lehman and James Davis at WLB. These
two are athletic but still learning the ropes.
Carr was on his way to a solid box score last
week before turning the ball over twice. Look
for Andre Johnson to bust loose this week going
against either Goodman or Bryant, while Jabar
Gaffney and Corey Bradford could also get in the
act, too. This game makes for a nice discussion
of Joey Harrington vs. David Carr, but I fully
expect both QBs to produce solid, if not middle
of the road fantasy stats. The key for Carr
boils down to eliminating mistakes and keeping
the Texans offense from self-destructing. If he
can do that, he's a solid sleeper to finish near
this week's top 10 fantasy QBs. Realistically,
he'll throw 1 or 2 INTs due to the Ford Field
factor and playing on the road, so temper your
enthusiasm a bit and expect Carr to be no worse
than 200+ yds, 1-2 TDs with a turnover or two.
As a baseline, that's not a terrible reach, but
certainly you'd be much better off with one of
the handful of stud QBs.
Drew Brees, SD vs NYJ
I may be among the minority, but I still believe
Drew Brees has what it takes to be a solid NFL
QB. Unfortunately, his tenure as the Chargers
starting QB will be short-lived and Philip
Rivers will replace him sooner or later, but if
he continues to play well like he did in week 1,
it could wind up being later.. we shall see.
Last week provided some good signs for Brees.
Antonio Gates, as I've written about since last
season, is emerging as a true go-to WR from the
tight end position while Eric Parker and Reche
Caldwell took some positive steps forward in
week 1 as well. The Jets were carved up by
"rookie" QB Carson Palmer last week and this
week travel cross-country to contend with the
Chargers up-and-coming offense. Obviously,
they'll need to deal with LT first and foremost,
which promises to open things up for Gates,
Parker and Caldwell to make plays downfield and
off the play-action. Brees looks like another
sneaky play and I would not be surprised to see
him once again show a decent command of the
offense, limit his turnovers and produce 200+
yds and a pair of TDs. Folks, Antonio Gates is
the real deal Holyfield. I can't stress it
enough. Brees will utilize his superior
athleticism and ability to get open downfield
frequently to keep the chains moving. Certainly,
Brees is not a slam dunk, but no one in this
space ever is.. so, if you're looking for a
reach, take a chance on the former Boilermaker
even if he's running the Marty Ball show. You
could do much worse.
Mark Brunell, Was at NYG
The Giants secondary was shredded last week
by Donovan McNabb (and Terrell Owens) to the
tune of 4 TDs and 330 yards. The Giants pass
rush sacked McNabb twice, but lost FS Omar
Stoutmire for the season. Meanwhile, the
Redskins offense didn't exactly catch fire
against the Bucs as Mark Brunell threw for only
125 yards on 13 completions, mostly because they
had great success running the football with
Clinton Portis. As a solid veteran NFL
quarterback, Brunell isn't a terrible reach if
you need to dig a little for a starter. Perhaps
Gibbs will try to pick on the Giants secondary
and follow the Eagles path to success. After
all, it's a copy cat league and the Redskins
have the offensive firepower in place to pull it
off. The biggest pitfall I see here is the
potential for Kurt Warner to succumb to blitzes
and turn the ball over creating an early
deficit, in which case I believe the Redskins
offensive tendencies and production could be
similar to last week. Run the clock and more
classic Gibbs football - aggressive defense and
a strong running attack. However, let's not
forget Gibbs also had some terrific passing
attacks, too, so Brunell could certainly be a
viable option if you are weak at the position.
Jake Delhomme, Car at KC
The Chiefs have long been a haven for
opposing QBs, but they are also a team that can
be vastly different on the road compared to at
home in front of the rabid Arrowhead fans - one
of the better home field advantages in the
league - if not the best. That could prove to be
problematic for Delhomme and the Panthers
passing attack. The Chiefs DE Vonnie Holiday is
questionable this week with a groin injury, and
while he's a streaky player, he's arguably their
best pass rusher. The Chiefs also have some
issues to deal with when it comes to defending
the run. Look for the Panthers to work extra
hard this week to get Stephen Davis and DeShaun
Foster going strong. The Broncos ran all over
the Chiefs at Mile High last week, so this one
will be interesting to see who wins the battle
of the trenches, because the Panthers run
defense was equally embarrassed by the Packers
on MNF. Whoever defends the run better will
ultimately take control of this game. If the
Panthers can't get it going, they'll need
Delhomme to be productive. Without explosive WR
Steve Smith, that may prove to be a bit of a
challenge. I like Delhomme, but I'm hesitant to
recommend going with him this week. As I
mentioned, I'm a bit concerned by the Chiefs
defense in their home opener and the absence of
Smith. Keary Colbert appears poised to slide
into Smith's spot and produce, despite being a
rookie, so I'm not going to write off Delhomme
completely.
Joey Harrington, DET vs. Hou
The Texans were beaten last week by the Chargers
in front of their home crowd. That hurt. Now,
they hit the road to Motown and will face a
Lions team that is looking to ride the wave of
enthusiasm following their first road victory in
3+ years. The Lions are a solid team at home but
lost their top WR Charles Rogers for the season
- for the 2nd straight year - to a broken
collarbone. Un-freaking-believable. While the
loss of Rogers hurts, it's not the end of the
world. Rookie Roy Williams stepped up and made
some nice plays including an incredible
one-handed grab that featured his top-shelf
talent and ability. Joey should be fine because
unlike last year the Lions actually have some
true pros behind Rogers. Tai Streets slides into
Rogers spot while Az Hakim will operate out of
the slot, where he can be a difference maker.
Aaron Glenn will likely draw Roy Williams with
rookie Dunta Robinson sticking on Tai Streets. I
expect Joey to produce this week. He didn't look
particularly good last week against the Bears,
but he's back at home and the pressure is
building for him to lead this team to victory
and into the playoffs. This week will go a long
way towards defining his season and ultimate
success this year as a fantasy QB.
Ken Dorsey, SF at NO
Dorsey is an interesting candidate for
sleeper duty this week, though admittedly, he's
more of the extreme long shot variety for
several reasons. He's making his first NFL
start. He's on the road. And the receivers he's
working with are also still getting their feet
wet as starters in the league. Combine that with
a very mediocre running attack last week and you
have the potential for a bust situation or a
mildly productive afternoon. The Saints
secondary is nothing to fear, but they can bring
the heat with their front seven. Dorsey
completed 9 of 15 passes for 111 yards last week
in less than half the game. I wouldn't recommend
sticking your neck out this far and starting him
this week, but he deserves a spot in the column
as my "long shot of the week".
Running Backs
Lamar Gordon, Mia at CIN
Keeping this one short and to the point..
The Bengals were obliviated by the Jets and
Curtis Martin last week. Gordon will start for
the Dolphins struggling offense while Travis
Minor is out and Sammy Morris is doubtful.
Leonard Henry could get activated and see some
time in relief of Gordon, but ultimately the
table is set for Gordon to show his value this
week. No real competition to take touches away
from him and a defense that needs to rebound
badly after getting their lunch handed to them
last week. I expect the Bengals to rebound at
home, and the Dolphins offensive line remains a
work in progress (hey, I'm being nice here), so
expect mediocre to very good numbers from
Gordon. I think 100 total yards, a handful of
catches and a possible TD are easily within
reach making him perhaps this week's #1 sleeper
RB that's not traditionally ranked within the
realm of the starters. Depending on his
production this week, that might change.
Kevin Jones, DET vs Hou
Jones flashed some of his vast potential
last week but never really got on track. At home, on the fast track of Ford
Field and buoyed by the fans, I expect him to maybe break loose for a few long
gains this week and lay his claim to the starting job more firmly. Artose Pinner
remains firmly in the picture at this point, and as Mooch describes the
situation.. it's Jones as RB1a and Pinner as RB1b. Until something changes,
expect more of the same. The Texans defense isn't particularly good, nor is it a
particularly good matchup either. It's probably more middle of the road, but I
like the home factor here and expect the Lions offense to roar a bit more,
despite the loss of C-Rogers. KJ is going to be a heckuva back in this league,
and we could get the first real flashes of his upside in this game. I'd
recommend starting him, but only if you don't have a more servicable or reliable
choice ahead of him. Sometimes you just gotta roll the dice.
Emmitt Smith, Ari at NE
Ole bluehair Emmitt proved to be a handful last week for the Rams. The
Patriots were surprisingly steamrolled by the
Colts and Edgerrin James last week, so what
transpires in the desert this week could be the
start of a trend or a rebound led by the
inspired coaching of Bill Belichick. Either way,
the key will be the play of NT Keith Traylor,
who didn't live up to expectations last week and
certainly didn't match the play of Ted
Washington from the same spot last year. The
Patriots will put every effort to stop the run
this week and with Belichick's schemes should
prove to be quite a stiff challenge for Josh
McCown and the passing game of Arizona. For me,
this matchup boils down completely to Emmitt vs.
the Pats run defense.. Honestly, I'm not sure
what to expect either. My gut says the Patriots
will rebound and Emmitt will regress to the mean
- so to speak. However, I'm not completely sold
on that take either. Starting Emmitt is a
gamble, but I did like what I saw from him last
week and I won't write him off without giving
him a chance to do it again. You know how it
goes.. one week could be an aberration, two
weeks begins a trend.. three weeks? Well, let's
see what happens here first, then we'll cross
that bridge.
Maurice Morris, Sea at TB
Obviously, Mo Mo is an injury play, because if Shaun Alexander is able to
practice and play Sunday, his chances of being a productive fantasy RB decline
drastically. That said, I suspect Holmgren will give Morris mo' carries either
way to help Alexander get back to 100% and avoid the possibility of hurting his
sprained knee further. As of the time of this writing, I don't know if Alexander
was able to practice on Thursday or not. The Bucs run defense was beaten badly
by the Redskins and Clinton Portis last week. They failed to register a sack,
too. Seattle's offensive line is much better than Washington's, so if Mo Mo gets
mo' playing time or if Alexander sits this one out, I really like him as a
situational play for this week only.
Duce Staley, Pit at BAL
Staley may seem like more of a reach for two reasons. The most glaring
deficiency in his fantasy game is his lack of touches near the goal line where
Jerome Bettis snipered three TDs last week, but not far behind is a potentially
rough matchup against Ray Lewis and the Ravens. Staley, though, contributes so
much as a receiver that he could very well be productive despite the fact Bettis
is likely to get those carries at the goal line. Then again, Staley could
produce more than expected. Terrell Suggs is an excellent pass rusher, but he's
still learning the ropes in coverage and defending the flats against the pass.
Staley could give him fits this week with the Steelers running frequent short
passing plays to Hines Ward to further supplement the ground game as well.
Ultimately, Staley is the long shot of the RB though. Ray Lewis will see to it
that he earns every year on the ground, but to me, the potential for Staley is
his combined yardage and the long-shot he could break off a decent play in the
red zone before Bettis takes the field - but I'd say that's more of the
long-shot variety than something to take to the bank.
Chris Brown, TEN vs Ind (inj)
If Brown is deemed able to play and start,
then I like his chances to produce. That said,
I'm hesitant to start him myself in my money
league simply because I have options with
Edgerrin and Thomas Jones - both of which have
tougher matchups. Brown strutted his stuff last
week against the Dolphins gaining 100 yds in one
half, most of which came on one play - a 52
yarder that also put him on the sidelines with a
sprained ankle. It's hard to get a read on the
severity of his sprain, but it sure sounds like
he's going to play and he did manage to practice
already, so I'd say he's looking more on the
half-full side as opposed to half-empty. Your
mileage may, of course, vary, but depending on
the news I hear from now until Sunday morning, I
may indeed put him in the lineup myself and take
my chances.
Steven Jackson, Stl at ATL
Jackson has carved out a nice role for himself
in the Rams offensive attack and figures to be
featured near the goal line and frequently as a
change-of-pace for Marshall Faulk. He showed his
array of power and cut back abilities last week,
and figures to be even more of a sleeper this
week. The real value with Jackson hinges on
whether or not he gets to sniff the goal line
each week. I'm sticking my neck out and saying
that I think he gets in the end zone against the
Falcons. Kevan Barlow never got a chance last
week - shame on you Dennis Erickson - but while
Martz is a flake with his play-calling at times
- I really think he knows what kind of talent he
has here and will do everything he can to
maximize that when he can.. so don't expect a
1st and goal and 4 straight passing plays from
the Rams. Jackson could be a solid, if not deep
sleeper, this week considering he's not even a
starter on his own team (yet).
Wide Receivers
Brandon Lloyd, SF at NO
Targeted 13 times last week, we were hoping
for better production, but let's hope for a
rebound this time around against the Saints
less-than-stellar secondary. That said, I
highlighted Lloyd last week, but also reminded
you not to overlook his counterpart Cedrick
Wilson. The same applies this week. It's
hard to gauge which one, if not both, will
produce more this week, but going by the
targets, I suspect we haven't seen the first nor
the last of Mr. Lloyd and his acrobatic
play-making ability.
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI vs NE
Yes, he's a rookie and yes he's likely going
to draw Pro Bowl corner Ty Law. So what.. Fitz
showed last week he's capable of producing great
plays with his hands, size and incredible body
control. He also showed he's likely going to be
McCowns most targeted WR. With the Patriots
offense firing on all cylinders and a high
probability that the Pats run defense wakes up
this week, I fully expect the Cards to be
playing chase sooner rather than later in this
game.. which means more opportunity for Fitz and
likely even more targets than last week.
Bryant Johnson could provide a spark or two
as well, but if you're going to gamble on a
Cardinals WR this week, despite the Law matchup,
take your chances with the 2nd pick in the
draft.
Muhsin Muhammad & Keary Colbert, Car at KC
Muhammy is back in the spot light for the
Panthers aerial attack while Colbert slides into
the lineup replacing the injured Steve Smith.
The Chiefs corners have proven to be a
productive matchup in years past and didn't do
much to deflect that line of thinking last week.
Heck, even Ashley Lelie looked pretty good at
times. Expect Muhammy to be the most targeted WR
here, but I really like the "chutzpah" that
Colbert has displayed all season long going back
to mini-camps. He's going to be a player in this
league for a long time, and I wouldn't be
surprised if he got off to a decent start this
week against the Chiefs.
Roy Williams & Tai Streets, DET vs Hou
You read the script in my analysis above for
Joey. Now let's apply it to the Lions WRs. Roy
Boy will likely draw the coverage of Aaron
Glenn, possibly even some double coverage
despite his rookie status. While Tai Streets is
more likely to draw the Texans rookie and more
single-coverage. Streets is the REAL sleeper
here because we all know that Roy Will is the
real deal and will ultimately rise through the
ranks to be a top-notch fantasy WR, but this is
just his 2nd game as a pro, so he's still a bit
of a gamble by all means. Lastly, don't forget
about Az Hakim, who could be a playmaker
in the slot where he's always been far more
productive and comfortable.
David Givens, David Patten and Deion Branch, NE at ARI
I don't know how much I classify Branch as a sleeper. Quite honestly, I
don't.. but due to how much Brady spreads the ball and the emergence of their
double TEs and Daniel Graham as the potential "go to" guy in the offense in the
red zone, I think all three of these WRs stand out as players who could either
jump up into the top 20 any given week or fall back out of the top 40. The
pecking order, though quite fuzzy for me, goes something like this: Branch,
Givens then Patten. That's my take anyway.. I like Patten a lot and know his
merits, but I prefer the size of Givens and the explosiveness of Branch. That
said, I punt when picking anyone to be a sure-fire starter, thus I list all
three as solid sleepers - each is perfectly capable of delivering the goods,
especially with a soft matchup against the Cardinals D.
Donald Driver, GB vs Chi
Javon Walker gets most of the love. If not,
Robert Ferguson seems to be the 2nd most talked
about Packers WR. Somewhere lost in the shuffle
is Driver, who is the only one of these three to
actually have a 1,000 yard season and a Pro Bowl
under his belt. Go figure. Similar to the Pats
WRs above, anything can happen here and likely
will... The Bears secondary is likely to get
roasted here. They are without Jerry Azumah and
R.W. McQuarters appears to still be quite gimpy
with his hamstring. Look for Driver to be the
sneaky play here.. Maybe my best reason, don't
laugh, is that I've been in Green Bay all week
and I can't help but get good vibes from the
famous "painted fence" across the street from
Lambeau, which for the time being features
Driver's name, as in they are in the Driver's
seat. Ok, you can stop laughing now. In all
seriousness, Driver did have the most targets
last week and I think he's a decent sleeper
player here with the other two getting more love
from the fantasy world.
Tight Ends
Billy Miller, Hou at DET
Miller hasn't exactly been a marvel of TE
production over the last year, but I reiterate
as I did last week, the Lions are a haven for TE
success. Desmond Clark came close to making a
big play last week, but bumbled it. Miller could
prove to be a sleeper of the deeper variety this
week, so if you are going to really stretch it,
why not take a chance here. Ted Lehman is going
to be a marvelous LB in the league for a long
time, but he's learning the ropes so to speak
and Miller has the kind of pass catching ability
that could prove to be a stiff challenge for the
rookie backer.
Bubba Franks, GB vs Chi
Just when you want to write off Bubba, he
scores 2 TDs. The Packers, curiously, didn't
feature their vintage play-action at the goal
line last week, so I fully expect them to
exploit their long-standing rivals with it this
week. Everyone will be geared up to stop Ahman,
then Favre's ego comes into play, and the
quirkiness of the Packers playbook. The Bears
have been beaten over their head with TEs last
season, and I would not be the least bit
surprised to see Franks have the typical 2
catches for 3 yards with 2 TDs stat line this
week making him the Jerome Bettis of TEs.
---
Sorry I'm going to have to cut this week's
article a little short. I've been on the road
for the real job this week and it's taken much
of my time away from my fantasy efforts, but
don't worry. I'll be back in the saddle with the
customizable projections/cheats next week and
the full array of my regular weekly duties here
at FBG. Thanks for understanding and sorry for
any inconvenience this may have caused.
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