Beyond the Baseline:

Looking for Value and Risk in the FBG Top 200

Every week in this feature, we will bring you our opinions on the players most at risk of disappointing and most likely to outperform their expected value. Rather than simply put out a “sleepers and dud” list we wanted to take a more disciplined approach and decided on the following methodology.

1)       We will select one player from each skill position (QB, RB, WR, TE) that currently sits BELOW the baseline in the most recent Footballguys Top 200 list http://apps.footballguys.com/04top200sorted2.cfm who we expect will finish AT OR ABOVE the baseline in the upcoming game. These are players we believer warrant consideration in your lineup for the current week, but not necessarily on a regular basis.

2)       We will select one player from each skill position (QB, RB, WR, TE) that currently sits AT OR ABOVE the baseline in the most recent Footballguys Top 200 list http://apps.footballguys.com/04top200sorted2.cfm who we expect will finish BELOW the baseline in the upcoming game. These are players who are forecast as regular fantasy starters, but we believe are best avoided for the week if you have reasonably attractive alternatives.

3)       The baselines are defined as follows, and are the same baselines used in our standard VBD discussion and also those used in conjunction with www.pro-football-reference.com

a.       QB12

b.       RB24

c.       WR30

d.       TE12

4)       We cannot submit anyone to finish below the baseline that is currently listed as questionable, doubtful or out according to the most recent NFL injury report

5)       Assumptions are predicated on the use of Footballguys scoring rules, as follows:

a.       Passing Yards = 1 point per 20 yards

b.       Rushing and Receiving Yards = 1 point per 10 yards

c.       Passing TDs = 4 points

d.       Rushing and Receiving TDs = 6 points

e.       Interceptions Thrown = -1 point

f.         Decimal Scoring

6)       In order to encourage accuracy and reward gutsier calls (i.e., it’s a lot more intriguing to pick the projected RB5 to fall out of the top 24 than it is to pick RB23), we are utilizing a unique scoring system to keep track of our predictions

a.       For ABOVE BASELINE predictions

                                                               i.      +5 points if player finishes: QB1-6, RB1-12, WR1-15, TE1-6

                                                             ii.      +3 points if player finishes:  QB7-12, RB13-24, WR16-30, TE7-12

                                                            iii.      -1 point if player finishes above current ranking but below the baseline

                                                            iv.      -3 points if player finishes at or below current ranking

b.       For BELOW BASELINE predictions

                                                               i.      +3 points if player finishes below the baseline

                                                             ii.      -1 point if player finishes at or above baseline, but below current ranking

                                                            iii.      -3 points if player finishes at or above current ranking

Contributors:

Jason Wood

Maurile Tremblay

Chase Stuart

Marc Levin