Power Rankings
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Posted 9/23 by Michael Brown
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This past Saturday was my birthday. A couple of aunts sent me birthday cards
with the obligatory money tucked inside. Then my mom cut me a nice check. I
didn't really do anything to warrant such gifts, other than managing to not
die for the past year. But I accepted these gifts nonetheless. It's nice getting
money for doing basically nothing. But that money in my pocket was short-lived.
You see, this past Tuesday was my girlfriend's birthday. As such, I headed out
to the mall to pick up her gifts. What money did I use for said gifts? Outside
of my own, the money I received from my mom and my aunts this past weekend of
course. All of the money that they gave to me went towards the "Nicole's
birthday fund". In essence, then, it appears that my aunts and mom bought
her gifts, right? Wrong. Just because the money came from them doesn't mean
they are buying them. A might lead to B, and B might lead to C, but that doesn't
mean A leads directly to C. Right about now you're probably wondering what the
heck any of this has to do with football rankings. Well, on the surface, even
less than Elton John. But a deeper look reveals a connection between spending
money on gifts and power rankings.
Just because one thing seems to lead to another doesn't make it so.
And if you were thrown off by any of the previous rambling, I have good news.
The picture is about to clear up.
In football, just because Team A can beat Team B, and Team B can beat Team
C, it doesn't necessarily mean Team A is better than Team C. It's important
to keep this in mind, because a lot of times it'll appear as if the rankings
don't make sense if you base it solely on who has beaten whom. If that were
the case, then by the end of the season I wouldn't be able to rank anyone
number one. Reason being, usually you can find a "this team beat this team,
and this team beat this team, and this team beat this team
" connection
all the way through the entire NFL. For example, last year you could have said,
"Houston beat Buffalo, and Buffalo beat New England, so Houston would beat
New England." Clearly, if you are ranking that way then you need to get
out of the rankings game. That seems to be the most common misconception so
far about these rankings. It's not just a matter of teams beating other teams;
it's also a matter of my own expectations of them coupled with whom they
beat, when they beat them, where they beat them, and how
they beat them.
Another important note to keep in mind is that it is early in the season, so
fluctuations will occur much more rapidly at this point as we discover certain
things. For example, in the preseason I had Tampa Bay winning the NFC South.
Why? Outside of that toad I licked a few weeks back, I can't imagine what would
have possessed me to do such a thing. Sure, the defense looked good again last
week, but a division title? Probably not. Then again, it wouldn't be unprecedented
if they DID win the division, so I reserve the right to re-change my mind. You
see what I mean? Early-season NFL is like nothing else in sports. You could
come out flat one week, and the next week you're Brooke Burke. It's especially
tough to gauge the teams whose performance fluctuates wildly in the early going.
So if you see a bit more moving and shaking in the early going, rest assured.
I'm not just arbitrarily shifting teams around on a whim, nor am I being fickle.
There is a method to the madness, but often times the madness of the NFL can
ruin the methods.
Speaking of madness, if you didn't like the Power Rankings/birthday money connection,
it's understandable. I thought it was kind of weak myself, but hey I figured
everyone skips the beginning to go right to the rankings anyway so no one will
notice. Could I have written this without including the first paragraph? I suppose.
But I thought it'd be a good way to put the word out there that my birthday
just passed. Maybe Joe and the boys will be sending cards of their own with
birthday wishes money in them.
Whoops, rambling again.
At the end of the rankings, there is a new aspect debuting this week that reveals
the 3 teams that have moved up or down the most in each direction since last
week. Those moving up will be called 'Super Shufflers Of the Week' in honor
of the greatest song and dance this country has ever known, the Super Bowl Shuffle.
(I am, of course, excluding anything by Billy Ray Cyrus from consideration
because then it just becomes unfair).
Those dropping the most each week earn the distinction of Plungers Of the Week
because, well, they're in the toilet.
On to the rankings.
Rank
Team
...W/L
(Last week)
- New England Patriots 2-0 (1)
They don't dominate, but they dominate. That's about the best way I can put
it.
- Indianapolis Colts 1-1 (2)
Keeping James healthy is imperative. Rhodes is a good backup, but he's no
James.
- Philadelphia Eagles 2-0 (5)
Blew out one of the conference's top teams. I admit it. They're legit.
- Minnesota Vikings 1-1 (3)
The fact that they're still this high is a reflection of how impressed I am
by the Eagles.
- Baltimore Ravens 1-1 (7)
Jamal Lewis' TDs were great for fantasy owners, but even with Ogden the holes
weren't there.
- Seattle Seahawks 2-0 (6)
Not exactly the dominant showing I had expected, but 2-0 on the road for this
team is great.
- Green Bay Packers 1-1 (4)
A much inferior team all but calls you out, then comes into your house and
beats you? Weak.
- Jacksonville Jaguars 2-0 (14)
Suffocating defense. Offense does just enough with first-time QB. Jags '04
= Panthers '03?
- Denver Broncos 1-1 (8)
This close to pulling it out, but a loss is a loss.
- Dallas Cowboys 1-1 (10)
Despite picking them to win the East, they seem destined for a just-above-mediocre
season.
- New York Jets 2-0 (11)
Their opponents have been sub-par, so it's tough to move them up. I want to,
though.
- Atlanta Falcons 2-0 (19)
Ladies and Gentlemen, meet your 2004 NFC South Champions. The Atlanta Vicks!
- Cincinnati Bengals 1-1 (16)
Good thing it isn't Coughlin's defense, because they showed up a week late.
Impressive though.
- Tennessee Titans 1-1 (17)
Normally a team won't move up after a loss, but several other teams were even
worse.
- Carolina Panthers 1-1 (21)
Does Davis/Foster remind anyone else of Watters/Alexander a few years back?
- Washington Redskins 1-1 (12)
The win over Tampa Bay becomes much less impressive now that we know how bad
Tampa is.
- Buffalo Bills 0-2 (15)
They're so similar to Jacksonville except where it matters most - wins and
losses.
- Kansas City Chiefs 0-2 (9)
It's not THAT they lost their first two games. It's how BAD they looked doing
it.
- Saint Louis Rams 1-1 (13)
They appear to be worse than last year's team in every aspect of the game.
- New Orleans Saints 1-1 (23)
Was prepared to bump them up even higher, but no Deuce = No dice.
- Oakland Raiders 1-1 (24)
Know what? He's the best there ever was, but Jerry Rice isn't as classy as
everyone says he is.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-2 (18)
Word has it that Tampa needs playmakers, so they've contacted Art Monk and
Henry Ellard.
- Chicago Bears 1-1 (30)
Urlacher made a terrific play, but you can't expect game-turning fumble return
TDs every week.
- Pittsburgh Steelers 1-1 (20)
This article
gives a pretty good idea of how things are in Pittsburgh.
- Cleveland Browns 1-1 (22)
That thud you just heard was Jeff Garcia's QB rating.
- Detroit Lions 2-0 (29)
Beat a team not from Chicago or Houston. Then we'll talk. But how good is
Roy Williams?!
- San Francisco 49ers 0-2 (26)
Losing winnable games to open up kills any hope for .500. They're competing,
though.
- San Diego Chargers 1-1 (25)
They'd be much higher up if they weren't so bad.
- New York Giants 1-1 (31)
How many teams do you know that win the turnover battle 7-1 and still only
win the game by 6?
- Miami Dolphins 0-2 (27)
During the MNF game, did anyone else gain an appreciation for how good Ricky
Williams was?
- Houston Texans 0-2 (28)
Does it get worse than back-to-back losses to San Diego and Detroit? At least
they have offense.
- Arizona Cardinals 0-2 (32)
You know the saying, 'They're not as bad as their record indicates'? That
doesn't apply here.
Super Shufflers Of the Week (+)
1.Chicago Bears & Atlanta Falcons (tie) +7
3.Carolina Panthers & Jacksonville Jaguars (tie) +6
Plungers Of the Week (-)
1.Kansas City Chiefs -9
2.Saint Louis Rams -6
3.Washington Redskins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, & Pittsburgh Steelers (tie)
-4
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