The Profit - Mike Brown

Needless to say, it hasn't been a banner couple of weeks. Then I check my e-mail
Tuesday morning to see an e-mail entitled "a couple solutions to your suckiness". Here's the message:

1. Your best bets do better than your other bets. You should just make all your bets 'best bets'.
2. Use Dodd's Game Predictor

Hope this helps…
Eric

Now, now, Eric. It isn't a competition between me and the inanimate Game Predictor model. Just because mathematical equations (or whatever the heck he uses) are currently kicking my butt, that's no cause for alarm. And to be perfectly honest, even my best bets have stunk lately so I take offense to that first statement. It's a team-wide slump. Perhaps my brain is deteriorating. There's a perfectly good explanation for it, you know. It's those commercials during the games. That's right, I'll use that as my excuse for the problems I'm having. I know, I know - commercials have always been bad and it's the old cliché to talk about how bad they are, but these aren't just bad - they're life-alteringly bad. (A little red line just popped up under the word 'alteringly', so something tells me that's not a real word. No matter, it will be included.) Several ads have actually caused the blood vessels in my face to spontaneously rupture and my head to bleed from the ears. The worst part of the actual commercials are the people in real life who sit there laughing at these things. Come to think of it, that might make a good lead-in to a future article. In fact, perhaps I can milk this thing for two weeks and use this commercial thing as a basis for a future opening to my picks. Hmmm.

On to the picks…

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds.html

ATLANTA (-3.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
Remember when Tampa had like, the BEST defense in the history of the world? In 2002, when they were busy winning the Super Bowl, Michael Vick was making a name for himself by lighting up every team in the league on his own personal weekly highlight reel. But one team he never could solve was Tampa. They rattled him, they battered him, they knocked him out of the game. He just couldn't do a thing against them. Fast-forward almost two years. Tampa's defense isn't what it was then, but the same could be said about Vick. He's offered a few glimpses here and there this season that he's going to bust loose, but has come crashing back down just as soon. Tampa is on a serious roll right now, improbably being led by Brian Griese of all people. You'll remember him as the guy who had one of the best seasons a quarterback can have back in 2000 with Denver. I've said it before, and I'll say it again. You get a fairly intelligent QB with decent enough skills - t he Gruden offense will turn him into a Pro Bowler. That's not to say Griese is headed down that path, but he's playing remarkably well right now considering where his reputation was just a few weeks ago. Couple Griese's play with the resurgent Michael Pittman and a defense that is beginning to come together much better, and you have the makings of a race in the could-be-tight-after-this-week NFC South. PICK: Bucs

GREEN BAY (-4) vs. MINNESOTA
As if you needed me to tell you, the Vikings are reeling. Two losses in a row don't always mean disaster, but in this case, the Packers sudden resurgence has coincided quite nicely with the Vikings' skid. That has put Green Bay in a prime position to seize control of this division. The Vikings defense didn't appear able to stop much of anything last week against Indy, and I wouldn't expect that to change all that much this week against the Pack. Then you've got the Green Bay defense, which has played MUCH better since the return of Grady Jackson, and you've got the makings of a game that should be heavily in Green Bay's favor. If this game were in Minnesota, I'd be leery of considering Green Bay to hang in it because of their complete lack of success there in recent years. Likewise, if Randy Moss were playing, it'd be tough to count them out. But as things stand, the Pack is well-rested while Minnesota is stumbling. PICK: Packers

INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) vs. HOUSTON
Ok, so the Colts have ruined my "always take the Colts" strategy in recent weeks. That's no reason to shy away from them now, is it? Well, I'm going to take Indy but I'm very leery of this one. Houston's offense is one of the few in the league that I think can get into a shootout with the Colts and actually hang in the game. I don't know that they have enough to win it, but they can keep it close. The key to this one will be jumping on top early and getting a couple of turnovers. One would think that the Texans may be exactly what the Colts need. A perfect foil for themselves, as Houston also features an up-tempo, above-average offense and a defense that leaves a lot to be desired. Perhaps if the offense can get it going early enough, they can open up a big enough lead to where the defense's performance will be a non-factor. But I'm warning you - this game could go that exact same way in the opposite direction. PICK: Colts

KANSAS CITY (-3) at NEW ORLEANS
What the heck do we make of this game? Will Priest play? Won't he? Will Blaylock even play? Even if both are healthy, does it matter that there's a line? When two of the most unpredictable teams in NFL history hook up, is there any sort of method to possibly use to determine the outcome? You might as well ask what God's shoe size is because nobody has a frickin' clue. When in doubt, go with the team that doesn't resemble quitters every time they step on the field. Oh, and the one that isn't coached by Jim Haslett. PICK: Chiefs

NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) vs. BUFFALO
The Bills have played very well lately. The emergence of Willis McGahee as a primo running back is, to me at least, a shocking development. Not that he's emerged as a top back mind you, but the fact that it happened this year and not 2005 is what's so surprising. It has added a very necessary element to the Buffalo offense and has turned their season around. They beat a good Jets team last week and are playing about as well defensively as anyone in football. Now, with all that said…

These are still the Patriots. One loss to the Steelers doesn't change that. They are still at worst the third-best team in the league, and despite the result against Pittsburgh, it can still be argued that they are the best team in football. After all, both teams have but one loss but only one of them is the defending champs. Don't underestimate this bunch, and don't forget about how Drew Bledsoe has looked against them. Close your eyes. Focus. Imagine Drew dropping back to pass. His arm goes back. Patriots are swarming him as well as his receivers. It's not difficult to imagine what happens next. PICK: Patriots

NEW YORK GIANTS (-2.5) at ARIZONA
Living in northern New Jersey, the vast majority of my friends are Giants fans. Most commonly-heard quote this week? No, nothing about Eli Manning. Rather, this one: "I don't know what they are."

This has been the story of the Giants for years now. World-beaters one week, also-rans the next. And not in the typical 'NFL life' way either. What I mean is, most teams have the ability to look great and then fall flat. But no one does it quite like New York. You have to either live around here or watch them regularly to know what I mean. They just have this uncanny knack for getting their fans' hopes up as much as possible (win at Green Bay and Minnesota) before ultimately squashing them (lose at home to Detroit and Chicago). Thus, no one knows what to make of them right now. Sure, they COULD come out and knock around the Cardinals as they probably should. But no one would be shocked if they went out and lost to Arizona, only to beat Atlanta and Philly the next two games - thus continuing the vicious cycle. PICK: Cardinals

SAN FRANCISCO (-1) vs. CAROLINA
They both stink. Carolina stinks less. PICK: Panthers

SAINT LOUIS (Pk) vs. SEATTLE
Rams at home + Seattle on the road SHOULD = Rams blowout victory. But for good reason, everyone still gets scared by this Rams team. It's so unpredictable, they're almost like, well - Seattle! This is a battle of two very similar teams in that they have offenses that can almost score at will when they get going, defenses that were supposed to be much better than they are, and head coaches whose reputations were built mostly on what they did five years ago. Though Holmgren's mustache puts him over the top. Anyway, I learned long ago you don't tug on Superman's cape, you don't spit into the wind, and you don't bet against the Rams at home when Seattle comes to town. PICK: Rams

TENNESSEE (Off) vs. CHICAGO
With no points to pick, I'll pick a score for the game and see if my final would have covered the spread. The absence of a line is due to the uncertain status of Thomas Jones, I presume. Ok, ok, little fantasy football joke. It's because of Steve McNair. That would certainly change things MAYBE. Thing is, it's looking increasingly unlikely that McNair will suit up for this one. I've heard that it's difficult to play NFL quarterback when you can't really breathe. Personally, it sounds a little wussy to me but hey, what can I say? The guy's a baby and always has been. Oh, and the earth is flat and the moon is made of cheese and Beyonce is ugly and fat.

Listen, if this injury (that has now kept McNair from nearly a quarter of his season) is still lingering even after the bye week, I'd be leery of EVER taking the Titans the rest of the year. We're talking about a guy who once played a week after being electrocuted by a lightning bolt atop a mountaintop that he not only climbed but actually built himself, then survived the fall only to break every bone in his body twice, then contracted an infection from having to ingest tiger manure that was his only source of food as he lay on the ground waiting for help that never came. So he got up and limped slightly to the nearest hospital, which was 450 miles away only to find out they were too busy so he had to perform the surgeries himself. And then he came out and had 240 yards passing with two touchdowns (1 rushing). So if THIS injury is keeping him down, I assure you he's hurt pretty badly. The Titans rely on him as much or more than any team in the league relies upon anyone. Billy Volek, my apologies but you're not even close. If Volek is under center this week, as I presume he will be, thanks but I'll go another direction. PICK: Give the Bears 7 and you'll feel comfortable taking them.

WASHINGTON (-3) vs. CINCINNATI
I'm secure enough to admit that I have no feeling one way or the other on this game. On the one hand, my long-winded reasons for betting for or against the Bengals last week are well-documented, and I said to take them if Peter Warrick plays. Otherwise, leave them alone. So what happened? Warrick was placed on IR and they beat the snot out of my preseason NFC East division winner. So what did I learn from this? That there must still be a Peter Warrick connection that I just didn't find yet. It might be that you only take the Bengals against the lesser teams of the league - Dallas, Miami, etc. Perhaps here's the correlation. One of Chad Johnson's biggest games of the year came against the Broncos. Seems strange, right? After all, they've got shutdown cornerback Champ Bailey to cover Johnson. And therein lies the problem. David Dodds mentioned in his "From the gut" piece before the year began just how good Chad Johnson was. His talent is nearly unparalleled, despite the results we've seen thus far. The problem is that since Denver has this so-called shutdown cornerback in Bailey, they didn't double-team Johnson. That was one of the ONLY times he wasn't at least doubled all season long. And look at what he did. He went absolutely nuts on them, proving that one guy cannot hang with him. The Broncos were victims or their own ability. Even Champ Bailey isn't good enough to hang with Johnson one-on-one. Now, enter Washington. They've got Fred Smoot, among others. Will they try to lock up with Johnson one-on-one, or will they give help? If help is there all game long, it'll be tough for the Bengals to do anything. But if the Skins try to get away with just one guy on Johnson, watch the fireworks ensue. I would imagine they'd give help. That, coupled with the Redskins' overall defensive dominance (and the rumor that Joe Gibbs's dream stat line for Mark Brunell is: 3-5, 35 yards, 0 Int), leads me to believe that a good defensive effort coupled with Clinton Portis spells doom for Cincy. PICK: Redskins (who still stink, but can still win games here and there.)

BEST BETS

BALTIMORE (-1.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
No Chad Pennington. Hmmm. Quincy Carter versus Kyle Boller ay? Not much to go on there. Curtis Martin versus Jamal Lewis. Well, while Lewis is more spectacular, there is no denying the efficiency with which Martin has played this year. So let's call that a slight advantage in Baltimore's favor. Now we come to the defenses. Oh boy. This is where the table turns in the Ravens' favor. No one would be shocked to see the Jets pick off Kyle Boller a few times, maybe create a Jamal Lewis fumble. Normal stuff. But I think everyone HAS to expect Quincy Carter to turn the ball over. The Jets can play it as conservatively as they want this week, but the Ravens WILL find a way to get to Carter and WILL create some turnovers. Notice I said some. Not one, or two - but some. In a game likely to be determined by clock management and field position, that will loom large. PICK: Ravens

JACKSONVILLE (-3) vs. DETROIT
I've mentioned it several times in other articles that I don't think Jacksonville will miss much (if anything) with David Garrard manning the ship. Numerous teams have called to inquire about his services in recent years, and he's not the kind of guy about which we hear the usual coachspeak about. This kid's got some tools, and knows how to utilize them. He's going to make a good NFL quarterback someday, but for now we'll have to be content with watching him carve up the Lions. I've been burned by Jacksonville as a lock of the week once already this year, but I can't find a good reason to not do so again going up against a Lions team that absolutely MUST lose one of these road games! PICK: Jaguars

PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) at DALLAS
Call me crazy (and I'm sure you will) but I think Dallas can stick around in this one. One of the Eagles' biggest issues this season has been stopping the run. That isn't exactly a strong point of the Cowboys, but it could come into play this week. Reason being, if the Cowboys can get even a remote semblance of a running game going, they can hang in there.

(Ok, are they gone? Ok good, I was just trying to get rid of those fools who will bet up Dallas. I mean really, go back and re-read my first paragraph here. How ridiculous does that sound?!? Six and a half points! What, is the entire nation on crack? Take the Eagles dammit! Take them now! Lay the points and don't look back. PICK: Eagles…Shhhh!)

PITTSBURGH (-3.5) at CLEVELAND
I grant you, the Steelers come in with a banged-up backfield. Duce Staley and starting FB Dan Kreider are both injured and unlikely to play. But you know what's worse than having a banged-up backfield? Having a banged-up coach. How Butch Davis manages to hold down his job is an amazing thing to me. Yes I know, the Browns have been absolutely slaughtered by injuries this season. But injuries are not an excuse. Injuries happen. They are part of a team. You know they'll come. So when you don't have a plan in place for when they DO come, that makes you unprepared. The Steelers, on the other hand, have a team in place that can withstand serious injuries (Kendrell Bell? Casey Hampton? Duce Staley?). That's the sign of GOOD coaching. This game could be played in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Alcatraz Island, I don't care. The Steelers are an NFL elite and the Browns aren't very good. That will be plainly evident on Sunday. PICK: Steelers

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Philadelphia Eagles

By the numbers

Last week
Overall: 5-9
Best bets: 1-3
Lock of the week: 0-1

Year to date
Overall: 54-57-2 (48.6%)
Best bets: 17-15 (53.1%)
Lock of the week: 3-4 (42.9%)