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The Profit - Week 11


QUOTE OF THE YEAR: "Some men are such (female dogs)!"

Now, normally I'd be all over that. I'd be ranting and raving against whatever crazed feminist decided to place a blanket statement like that on guys across America. The women who like to generalize that "men are pigs", "men are scum", etc, etc. If there's one thing that bugs me, it's the "Sitcom Syndrome" or "Yes, Dear Syndrome" as I like to call it. It dictates that men and women must live their lives according to the following rule: Women know everything, and men can't brush their teeth without spousal approval. Go ahead and watch a sitcom, just about any sitcom. Friends, Everybody Loves Raymond, yes even these popular or formerly popular shows feature the Sitcom Syndrome. It might be the one thing on television that bugs me more than the commercials (that's what we call a tease - commercials coming next week…and you can be sure there's a lot of Yes, Dear Syndrome in the commercials these days). Now listen, this isn't one of those corny 'men versus women' topics that has become so incredibly played out by comedians across the globe. No, this is an actual social trend in which real-life human beings are thinking this is how people actually are supposed to behave. Now, I'm not suggesting we move in the 'Tom Cruise in Magnolia' direction, but c'mon guys…let's get a little self-respect back. So with all that in mind, why didn't I get upset at this quote? Because it was said by my OWN girlfriend. Let me explain.

We were headed over to her house the other afternoon when she mentioned that a friend of hers had gone out shopping the previous Sunday with her boyfriend. Wait a minute, did you say…

SUNDAY!?!

Sunday is, and always was, football day to this guy. Yet he spent the day out shopping with his girlfriend. Did he want to be there? Uh, no. Did he have any REASON to be there? Trust me, this isn't the first person you'd call for interior decorating tips. So what, exactly, was he doing there? HE WAS BEING SUCH A (female dog), according to my girlfriend. She then proceeded to go on about a 5-minute rant about this subject. Some of the highlights:

"These guys who go to the mall on Sundays with their girlfriends and wives are just taking up space from the rest of us who want to actually shop."

"They follow their wives around like little obedient dogs."

"I have to wait in line even longer because these guys think they're being helpful by offering up to buy all this other stuff."

…and finally, the granddaddy of them all…

(incredulously) "Why don't these guys stay home on Sunday and watch football like normal guys do? Some men are such (female dogs)!!!"

Some professionals will tell you that in order to compromise in these situations, a couple can watch football together one week, then go out shopping the next, then alternate each week and so on and so forth. How about this compromise? I watch football EVERY week, and she shops EVERY week. Voila! Happiness ensues for all. Of course, it helps to have a girlfriend who isn't an insane real-life version of a sitcom character. I think if I were married to the equivalent of Monica on Friends, I would have punched myself to death a long time ago. (And don't try telling me that Courtney Cox is hot so that makes up for it - she's not. But that's a topic for another day.)

Now, while it's true that this opening didn't have a TON to do with NFL football, that's beside the point. I've decided that in this political climate that we live in, I've got a voice and a platform to help the people. If I can help just one person (hopefully my friend), I will consider it a success. And hey if nothing else, it lays a nice groundwork for the commercial article next week.

On to the picks…

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds.html

ATLANTA (-2.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
On the one hand, we've got a first-place team that's being led by one of the most dynamic players in the history of the league. Outside of one giant shellacking against an offensive juggernaut, they've been pretty fairly consistently very good. The quarterback, who seemed lost just a few weeks ago, is playing well again. The running game is, as always, productive enough. The defense has been solid, for the most part (though they've had troubles against the pass). On the OTHER hand, we've got a team that is struggling badly. They lost their best defensive player to an injury, their starting quarterback was benched in favor of a rookie, their best wide receiver hasn't scored a touchdown since 2003, and they're coming off a blown lead and a loss to the lowly Arizona Cardinals. Those are just the facts. I'm just reporting on them. Who do YOU think I'm going to pick in this game? PICK: Falcons

BALTIMORE (-8) vs. DALLAS
First off, let me just say that Baltimore is a far superior team to Dallas. Everything Baltimore has, Dallas wants…a terrific running game…a nearly-impenetrable defense…an outstanding head coach…ooooh. Even with all that, though, the Ravens probably shouldn't be an 8-point favorite against anyone. It's tough because all signs point to this as a blowout win for the Ravens. Dallas has no running game, Vinny Testaverde is Vinny Testaverde, Dallas can't get to an opposing QB if you spot them 5 steps (which means Boller will have time to throw and won't be flustered), Jamal Lewis is Jamal Lewis, the Ravens defense might outscore the Dallas offense, etc. I mean, there are just so many reasons to love Baltimore in a blowout. So, as has been known to happen once or twice before, I have convinced myself during the course of writing this that I'm going with the Ravens and laying the 8. Wow, laying 8 points against a team I thought was going to win the NFC East. Does that tell you enough about how bad Dallas stinks? Or how good they stink? Because technically, if they stink badly, then it means they are bad at stinking. But they're obviously GOOD at stinking, because they do it every week. Alright, so we can now establish in Week 10 that the Cowboys stink very well. PICK: Ravens

CAROLINA (OFF) vs. ARIZONA
What would you have said if I told you back in Week 1 that Arizona was going to not only hang with Carolina, but that THEY would be a game out of first while the Panthers were wallowing in the basement of the seemingly bad NFC South? There's a good chance you'd call me a fool. Well then let me just say this: YOU are a fool if you think the Panthers will be doing anything in this game against the Cards. There's no line on the game right now due to the uncertainty around Jake Delhomme, but it may just as well be the uncertainty about who will run the ball for them. Don't be swayed by that incredible comeback you saw last week. Odds are we're going to see Rodney Peete under center this week, some shmoe in the backfield, and the Cardinals with a win. I'd imagine that regardless of Delhomme's status for the game, the Panthers will be favored. So take Arizona whatever the spread is because they're going to win outright. PICK: Cardinals to win

DENVER (-4) at NEW ORLEANS
Did you hear the one about the Saints being playoff contenders? It's a good one. PICK: Broncos

GREEN BAY (-3) at HOUSTON
The Packers are absolutely clicking offensively right now. That's not to say they are without faults, however. The recent win streak has hidden a still-suspect defensive unit, one that allowed the Vikings four touchdowns through the air despite the absence of Randy Moss. That's not good. Why is it that Minnesota struggled against everyone else but was still able to move the ball on Green Bay? Is it that Nate Burleson became bionic for a day, or is the Packer defense just really that bad? I have a feeling it's the latter. But the former would be kind of cool. Either way, they get to take on a struggling Texans team. Our very own Chase Stuart suggested the demise of Andre Johnson several weeks back and advised all of us to move him when his value was at its peak. (Note to self: do not doubt Chase Stuart next season.) While Johnson could be in line for big things this weekend, the Houston defense has shown about as much heart as Ron Artest. The Packers will do more than enough to win this shootout. PICK: Packers

JACKSONVILLE (Off) vs. TENNESSEE
The uncertainty surrounding both starting quarterbacks shouldn't matter. Whether Leftwich or Garrard is under center for the Jaguars is moot, because either can lead this team to victory. As Garrard demonstrated last week, he's not some chump backup QB. I knew there was a reason I had him ranked as the 35th-best quarterback in the preseason. He didn't post Manning-type stats, but he played a good game and if needed, will do the same this week. The Titans are absolutely ravaged by injuries to various key players, and appear just about ready to fall off the face of the NFL playoff picture. One more loss should just about do it, and I fully expect it to come this week. Take Jacksonville to win, but don't give more than 7. PICK: Jaguars by 7

MINNESOTA (-7.5) vs. DETROIT
Remember when the Vikings were a legitimate Super Bowl contender? That seems like a long time ago. And I feel like I've written this opening about the Vikings for several weeks now. At this point, it's safe to say: unless Randy Moss comes back 100% and SOON, this team will continue to struggle against every team they go up against. This week, they've implemented a simplified defensive scheme. Sounds good in theory, until you realize that all that does is benefit the opposing QB, Joey Harrington. Harrington isn't very good at reading defenses and working around tricky coverage, schemes, etc. So when everything becomes Tecmo Bowl-ized for him, he can use his natural ability to make plays. I don't know that Detroit wins this game necessarily, but I do believe they keep it close enough to cover this line. Plus, they're on the road where everyone knows they're damn near unbeatable! PICK: Lions

PHILADELPHIA (-10.5) vs. WASHINGTON
Wouldn't it be funny if the line on this game was 24.5 points? I mean really, that's what everyone expects Philly to win by, right? Seriously, does anyone think the Skins can keep it within 11 points? You know what? Maybe they can. And maybe Joe Gibbs will pull off his mask and reveal himself to be Rich Kotite! Actually, that'd be more believable than the Redskins keeping this one close. PICK: Eagles

PITTSBURGH (-4.5) at CINCINNATI
Last week was supposed to be the Steelers' "trap" game. I'm not a big believer in those sorts of things for elite teams, but if there's one of those games this year, this is it. Cincinnati is an enigma and we'll likely go through the entire regular season without ever knowing what to make of them. But they intrigue me for this week. First, we've got Chad Johnson at it again, almost guaranteeing that he's going to score a touchdown. You'll recall that he backed up his words with last year's guarantee that the Bengals would take down the then-undefeated Chiefs. Of course, 95% of his "guarantees" end up falling short, but I like Johnson so I'll make exceptions and only remember the correct ones. Regardless, as good as Roethlisberger has been, good as that defense as been, good as Jerome Bettis has been, odds are they have to stumble at least once this year. Now I'm not saying this week will be a loss, but I do see it as a chance for the Bengals to come out and make a real statement. Win or lose, I think Marvin Lewis will have them up for the fight and they can keep it close until the end. PICK: Bengals

SEATTLE (-10) vs. MIAMI
Whoa, ten points. Hello! Did this grab anyone else's attention? Seattle, one of the biggest underachievers thus far in recent NFL history, coupled with perhaps not having Matt Hasselbeck for the game and receivers who treat the ball as if it's Rosie O'Donnell's rear end, and they're favored by TEN? Listen, I know they're home and all. I know the Dolphins stink. And I've been one of the biggest proponents of the Seattle home/road splits. Even now, I'm getting this weird vibe like I should be taking them. But I just can't trust them to beat anyone, even when you fully expect them to. And certainly not by at least 11 points. Sorry. PICK: Dolphins

SAINT LOUIS (-1) at BUFFALO
Speaking of home/road splits, let's see how the Rams fare against a very tough defense without all of the comforts of home. Willis McGahee owners, I hope you have the engine revved up and ready for this week's massacre he will lay on Saint Louis' defense. PICK: Bills

TAMPA BAY (-8) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
See, here's the problem with the Bucs this week. Brian Griese may not play. That's a big thing to me. If Chris Simms is in there instead of Griese, I…you know what, nevermind. They could throw Steve Spurrier back in there at QB and still take the Niners by two scores. PICK: Bucs

BEST BETS

CLEVELAND (Pk) vs. NEW YORK JETS
Uh, this is a dumb line. PICK: Jets

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) at CHICAGO
People are acting as if Marvin Harrison's role in the Indy offense is suddenly that of the "other girl" in Destiny's Child. You know, not Beyonce or Kelly…the other girl, whatshername.

[On a side note, how about the new Destiny's Child song, Soldier? Perhaps the most offensive and insulting song to REAL American soldiers I've ever heard. Comparing street thugs to soldiers? Saying that it's weak does not do justice to how bad it is.]

Ah, whatever. Point is, Harrison's numbers aren't really all that down from last year when you look closely. Yardage is down, scores are up. Not a terrible trade-off. And it's not like he was the only player in the Indy machine last year, either. Reggie Wayne got more red-zone looks than Harrison last season, and Troy Walters wasn't far behind. In fact, if you disregard the last paragraph of my preseason article, you'll see that I was pretty spot-on with his success for this season. That said, because he has made noise in recent weeks about his role in the offense, I would expect him to be a little more rewarded this weekend. There is no conspiracy; Peyton Manning will do what he needs to do in order to win games, period. Harrison will be the big beneficiary of that this weekend. And oh yeah, if you need any more reason to pick the Colts in this one (other than the fact that they destroy everyone), Brian Urlacher won't be playing. This one's gonna get ugly in a hurry. PICK: Colts

SAN DIEGO (-4) at OAKLAND
This is the week that will separate them. Are they the same team as the one who got off to hot starts in the past several years, only to inevitably tank and fold up the tent when it came time to be legit? This is tough, because the Chargers NEVER beat the Raiders twice in one season. Actually, the last time they did that it was 1992, and the Raiders were still in Los Angeles. This could be big. I know Oakland isn't what they were even a few years ago, but it's a mental thing. Going in there and taking out Oakland would be big for us "impartial" football prognosticators :. I think the Chargers can get it done. To quote NFL films Power and the Glory CD…"You can get it done. You can get it done. What's more, ya GOTTA get it done!" PICK: Chargers

NEW ENGLAND (-3) at KANSAS CITY
So ok, ok…wait a minute, ok…the Patriots lost ONE GAME a few weeks back, and suddenly they're this vulnerable mess? How else do you explain that they are just 3-point favorites against a Priest-less Chiefs team? I mean, really. Does anyone out there truly believe that the Chiefs will stick around in this game? Anybody? Tom Brady will pick this defense apart like nobody's business. Corey Dillon, likewise, will have his way. Will the Chiefs put points on the board? Sure, it's likely they'll do some things. But as far as doing it enough? Not a chance. PICK: Patriots

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Indianapolis Colts

By the numbers

  • Last week
    Overall: 10-4
    Best bets: 4-0
    Lock of the week: 1-0


  • Year to date
    Overall: 64-61-2 (51.2%)
    Best bets: 21-15 (58.3%)
    Lock of the week: 5-4 (55.5%)
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