The Profit - Week 11
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Posted 11/18 by Michael Brown, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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QUOTE OF THE YEAR: "Some men are such (female dogs)!"
Now, normally I'd be all over that. I'd be ranting and raving against whatever
crazed feminist decided to place a blanket statement like that on guys across
America. The women who like to generalize that "men are pigs", "men
are scum", etc, etc. If there's one thing that bugs me, it's the "Sitcom
Syndrome" or "Yes, Dear Syndrome" as I like to call it. It dictates
that men and women must live their lives according to the following rule: Women
know everything, and men can't brush their teeth without spousal approval. Go
ahead and watch a sitcom, just about any sitcom. Friends, Everybody Loves Raymond,
yes even these popular or formerly popular shows feature the Sitcom Syndrome.
It might be the one thing on television that bugs me more than the commercials
(that's what we call a tease - commercials coming next week
and you can
be sure there's a lot of Yes, Dear Syndrome in the commercials these days).
Now listen, this isn't one of those corny 'men versus women' topics that has
become so incredibly played out by comedians across the globe. No, this is an
actual social trend in which real-life human beings are thinking this is how
people actually are supposed to behave. Now, I'm not suggesting we move in the
'Tom Cruise in Magnolia' direction, but c'mon guys
let's get a little self-respect
back. So with all that in mind, why didn't I get upset at this quote? Because
it was said by my OWN girlfriend. Let me explain.
We were headed over to her house the other afternoon when she mentioned that
a friend of hers had gone out shopping the previous Sunday with her boyfriend.
Wait a minute, did you say
SUNDAY!?!
Sunday is, and always was, football day to this guy. Yet he spent the day out
shopping with his girlfriend. Did he want to be there? Uh, no. Did he have any
REASON to be there? Trust me, this isn't the first person you'd call for interior
decorating tips. So what, exactly, was he doing there? HE WAS BEING SUCH A (female
dog), according to my girlfriend. She then proceeded to go on about a 5-minute
rant about this subject. Some of the highlights:
"These guys who go to the mall on Sundays with their girlfriends and
wives are just taking up space from the rest of us who want to actually shop."
"They follow their wives around like little obedient dogs."
"I have to wait in line even longer because these guys think they're
being helpful by offering up to buy all this other stuff."
and finally, the granddaddy of them all
(incredulously) "Why don't these guys stay home on Sunday and watch
football like normal guys do? Some men are such (female dogs)!!!"
Some professionals will tell you that in order to compromise in these situations,
a couple can watch football together one week, then go out shopping the next,
then alternate each week and so on and so forth. How about this compromise?
I watch football EVERY week, and she shops EVERY week. Voila! Happiness ensues
for all. Of course, it helps to have a girlfriend who isn't an insane real-life
version of a sitcom character. I think if I were married to the equivalent of
Monica on Friends, I would have punched myself to death a long time ago. (And
don't try telling me that Courtney Cox is hot so that makes up for it - she's
not. But that's a topic for another day.)
Now, while it's true that this opening didn't have a TON to do with NFL football,
that's beside the point. I've decided that in this political climate that we
live in, I've got a voice and a platform to help the people. If I can help just
one person (hopefully my friend), I will consider it a success. And hey if nothing
else, it lays a nice groundwork for the commercial article next week.
On to the picks
Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds.html
ATLANTA (-2.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
On the one hand, we've got a first-place team that's being led by one of the
most dynamic players in the history of the league. Outside of one giant shellacking
against an offensive juggernaut, they've been pretty fairly consistently very
good. The quarterback, who seemed lost just a few weeks ago, is playing well
again. The running game is, as always, productive enough. The defense has been
solid, for the most part (though they've had troubles against the pass). On
the OTHER hand, we've got a team that is struggling badly. They lost their best
defensive player to an injury, their starting quarterback was benched in favor
of a rookie, their best wide receiver hasn't scored a touchdown since 2003,
and they're coming off a blown lead and a loss to the lowly Arizona Cardinals.
Those are just the facts. I'm just reporting on them. Who do YOU think I'm going
to pick in this game? PICK: Falcons
BALTIMORE (-8) vs. DALLAS
First off, let me just say that Baltimore is a far superior team to Dallas.
Everything Baltimore has, Dallas wants
a terrific running game
a nearly-impenetrable
defense
an outstanding head coach
ooooh. Even with all that, though,
the Ravens probably shouldn't be an 8-point favorite against anyone. It's tough
because all signs point to this as a blowout win for the Ravens. Dallas has
no running game, Vinny Testaverde is Vinny Testaverde, Dallas can't get to an
opposing QB if you spot them 5 steps (which means Boller will have time to throw
and won't be flustered), Jamal Lewis is Jamal Lewis, the Ravens defense might
outscore the Dallas offense, etc. I mean, there are just so many reasons to
love Baltimore in a blowout. So, as has been known to happen once or twice before,
I have convinced myself during the course of writing this that I'm going with
the Ravens and laying the 8. Wow, laying 8 points against a team I thought was
going to win the NFC East. Does that tell you enough about how bad Dallas stinks?
Or how good they stink? Because technically, if they stink badly, then it means
they are bad at stinking. But they're obviously GOOD at stinking, because they
do it every week. Alright, so we can now establish in Week 10 that the Cowboys
stink very well. PICK: Ravens
CAROLINA (OFF) vs. ARIZONA
What would you have said if I told you back in Week 1 that Arizona was going
to not only hang with Carolina, but that THEY would be a game out of first while
the Panthers were wallowing in the basement of the seemingly bad NFC South?
There's a good chance you'd call me a fool. Well then let me just say this:
YOU are a fool if you think the Panthers will be doing anything in this game
against the Cards. There's no line on the game right now due to the uncertainty
around Jake Delhomme, but it may just as well be the uncertainty about who will
run the ball for them. Don't be swayed by that incredible comeback you saw last
week. Odds are we're going to see Rodney Peete under center this week, some
shmoe in the backfield, and the Cardinals with a win. I'd imagine that regardless
of Delhomme's status for the game, the Panthers will be favored. So take Arizona
whatever the spread is because they're going to win outright. PICK: Cardinals
to win
DENVER (-4) at NEW ORLEANS
Did you hear the one about the Saints being playoff contenders? It's a good
one. PICK: Broncos
GREEN BAY (-3) at HOUSTON
The Packers are absolutely clicking offensively right now. That's not to say
they are without faults, however. The recent win streak has hidden a still-suspect
defensive unit, one that allowed the Vikings four touchdowns through the air
despite the absence of Randy Moss. That's not good. Why is it that Minnesota
struggled against everyone else but was still able to move the ball on Green
Bay? Is it that Nate Burleson became bionic for a day, or is the Packer defense
just really that bad? I have a feeling it's the latter. But the former would
be kind of cool. Either way, they get to take on a struggling Texans team. Our
very own Chase Stuart suggested the demise of Andre Johnson several weeks back
and advised all of us to move him when his value was at its peak. (Note to self:
do not doubt Chase Stuart next season.) While Johnson could be in line for big
things this weekend, the Houston defense has shown about as much heart as Ron
Artest. The Packers will do more than enough to win this shootout. PICK: Packers
JACKSONVILLE (Off) vs. TENNESSEE
The uncertainty surrounding both starting quarterbacks shouldn't matter. Whether
Leftwich or Garrard is under center for the Jaguars is moot, because either
can lead this team to victory. As Garrard demonstrated last week, he's not some
chump backup QB. I knew there was a reason I had him ranked as the 35th-best
quarterback in the preseason. He didn't post Manning-type stats, but he played
a good game and if needed, will do the same this week. The Titans are absolutely
ravaged by injuries to various key players, and appear just about ready to fall
off the face of the NFL playoff picture. One more loss should just about do
it, and I fully expect it to come this week. Take Jacksonville to win, but don't
give more than 7. PICK: Jaguars by 7
MINNESOTA (-7.5) vs. DETROIT
Remember when the Vikings were a legitimate Super Bowl contender? That seems
like a long time ago. And I feel like I've written this opening about the Vikings
for several weeks now. At this point, it's safe to say: unless Randy Moss comes
back 100% and SOON, this team will continue to struggle against every team they
go up against. This week, they've implemented a simplified defensive scheme.
Sounds good in theory, until you realize that all that does is benefit the opposing
QB, Joey Harrington. Harrington isn't very good at reading defenses and working
around tricky coverage, schemes, etc. So when everything becomes Tecmo Bowl-ized
for him, he can use his natural ability to make plays. I don't know that Detroit
wins this game necessarily, but I do believe they keep it close enough to cover
this line. Plus, they're on the road where everyone knows they're damn near
unbeatable! PICK: Lions
PHILADELPHIA (-10.5) vs. WASHINGTON
Wouldn't it be funny if the line on this game was 24.5 points? I mean really,
that's what everyone expects Philly to win by, right? Seriously, does anyone
think the Skins can keep it within 11 points? You know what? Maybe they can.
And maybe Joe Gibbs will pull off his mask and reveal himself to be Rich Kotite!
Actually, that'd be more believable than the Redskins keeping this one close.
PICK: Eagles
PITTSBURGH (-4.5) at CINCINNATI
Last week was supposed to be the Steelers' "trap" game. I'm not a
big believer in those sorts of things for elite teams, but if there's one of
those games this year, this is it. Cincinnati is an enigma and we'll likely
go through the entire regular season without ever knowing what to make of them.
But they intrigue me for this week. First, we've got Chad Johnson at it again,
almost guaranteeing that he's going to score a touchdown. You'll recall that
he backed up his words with last year's guarantee that the Bengals would take
down the then-undefeated Chiefs. Of course, 95% of his "guarantees"
end up falling short, but I like Johnson so I'll make exceptions and only remember
the correct ones. Regardless, as good as Roethlisberger has been, good as that
defense as been, good as Jerome Bettis has been, odds are they have to stumble
at least once this year. Now I'm not saying this week will be a loss, but I
do see it as a chance for the Bengals to come out and make a real statement.
Win or lose, I think Marvin Lewis will have them up for the fight and they can
keep it close until the end. PICK: Bengals
SEATTLE (-10) vs. MIAMI
Whoa, ten points. Hello! Did this grab anyone else's attention? Seattle, one
of the biggest underachievers thus far in recent NFL history, coupled with perhaps
not having Matt Hasselbeck for the game and receivers who treat the ball as
if it's Rosie O'Donnell's rear end, and they're favored by TEN? Listen, I know
they're home and all. I know the Dolphins stink. And I've been one of the biggest
proponents of the Seattle home/road splits. Even now, I'm getting this weird
vibe like I should be taking them. But I just can't trust them to beat anyone,
even when you fully expect them to. And certainly not by at least 11 points.
Sorry. PICK: Dolphins
SAINT LOUIS (-1) at BUFFALO
Speaking of home/road splits, let's see how the Rams fare against a very tough
defense without all of the comforts of home. Willis McGahee owners, I hope you
have the engine revved up and ready for this week's massacre he will lay on
Saint Louis' defense. PICK: Bills
TAMPA BAY (-8) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
See, here's the problem with the Bucs this week. Brian Griese may not play.
That's a big thing to me. If Chris Simms is in there instead of Griese, I
you
know what, nevermind. They could throw Steve Spurrier back in there at QB and
still take the Niners by two scores. PICK: Bucs
BEST BETS
CLEVELAND (Pk) vs. NEW YORK JETS
Uh, this is a dumb line. PICK: Jets
INDIANAPOLIS (-7) at CHICAGO
People are acting as if Marvin Harrison's role in the Indy offense is suddenly
that of the "other girl" in Destiny's Child. You know, not Beyonce
or Kelly
the other girl, whatshername.
[On a side note, how about the new Destiny's Child song, Soldier? Perhaps
the most offensive and insulting song to REAL American soldiers I've ever
heard. Comparing street thugs to soldiers? Saying that it's weak does not
do justice to how bad it is.]
Ah, whatever. Point is, Harrison's numbers aren't really all that down from
last year when you look closely. Yardage is down, scores are up. Not a terrible
trade-off. And it's not like he was the only player in the Indy machine last
year, either. Reggie Wayne got more red-zone looks than Harrison last season,
and Troy Walters wasn't far behind. In fact, if you disregard the last paragraph
of my preseason article, you'll see that I was pretty spot-on with his success
for this season. That said, because he has made noise in recent weeks about
his role in the offense, I would expect him to be a little more rewarded this
weekend. There is no conspiracy; Peyton Manning will do what he needs to do
in order to win games, period. Harrison will be the big beneficiary of that
this weekend. And oh yeah, if you need any more reason to pick the Colts in
this one (other than the fact that they destroy everyone), Brian Urlacher won't
be playing. This one's gonna get ugly in a hurry. PICK: Colts
SAN DIEGO (-4) at OAKLAND
This is the week that will separate them. Are they the same team as the one
who got off to hot starts in the past several years, only to inevitably tank
and fold up the tent when it came time to be legit? This is tough, because the
Chargers NEVER beat the Raiders twice in one season. Actually, the last time
they did that it was 1992, and the Raiders were still in Los Angeles. This could
be big. I know Oakland isn't what they were even a few years ago, but it's a
mental thing. Going in there and taking out Oakland would be big for us "impartial"
football prognosticators :. I think the Chargers can get it done. To quote NFL
films Power and the Glory CD
"You can get it done. You can get it
done. What's more, ya GOTTA get it done!" PICK: Chargers
NEW ENGLAND (-3) at KANSAS CITY
So ok, ok
wait a minute, ok
the Patriots lost ONE GAME a few weeks
back, and suddenly they're this vulnerable mess? How else do you explain that
they are just 3-point favorites against a Priest-less Chiefs team? I mean, really.
Does anyone out there truly believe that the Chiefs will stick around in this
game? Anybody? Tom Brady will pick this defense apart like nobody's business.
Corey Dillon, likewise, will have his way. Will the Chiefs put points on the
board? Sure, it's likely they'll do some things. But as far as doing it enough?
Not a chance. PICK: Patriots
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Indianapolis Colts
By the numbers
- Last week
Overall: 10-4
Best bets: 4-0
Lock of the week: 1-0
- Year to date
Overall: 64-61-2 (51.2%)
Best bets: 21-15 (58.3%)
Lock of the week: 5-4 (55.5%)
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