Shocking though it may be, other people don't hate the NFL commercials as much as I do apparently. Based on the number of responses I got, it can be assumed that you all LOVE the ads.

[Hint: the number of nominations for bad commercials was less than 5 and rhymes with 'hero']

So be it. That won't stop me. I continue to push onward, soliciting potential dogs from every corner of the globe. Come on, don't relegate me to making jokes about John Mellencamp's haircut during the Thanksgiving show! (Even though he DID look like a vampire. And he "danced" around the stage like he still had the hanger in his shirt. And he hasn't seemed nearly as "rocking" since dropping the Cougar. But I said I wouldn't make jokes about him, so I won't.)

Instead of commercial-bashing, which may or may not happen (it's up to you), I'll throw in a piece of mail to kick-start the week.

From a reader named Gary:

Dude, you forgot 2 games!

Indy vs. Det
Atl vs. NO

Anyway, I decided a few weeks ago to play a $25 parlay on your best bets (no matter if I agreed or not) Hit it last week for $325. Keep it up! Gary

Well, congratulations Gary. Though I don't know what you're talking about, since gambling on sports is wrong and no one should ever do it, ever. I'd put a smiley face with a wink right here, but then the sarcasm would be too obvious.

As for missing the two games, I really can't explain what happened there. To be honest (because if you can't trust me, then really who CAN you trust?), I would have picked the Colts and Falcons. That would have added a 1-1 to my ledger for the week. I'm sure some of you are going to now request that I include those two games because, after all, it would make my record slightly worse. You know, since I'm not WELL above .500. Well, as all both of my regular readers may recall, several weeks ago I missed the Monday Night Titans/Packers tilt. I would have taken Tennessee in that game. So if you want me to include these two from this week, I have to include the Titans as well. That would be an extra 2-1, which would improve the record. And based on the mail I've thus far received, I'm fairly certain most of you hope I fail miserably. Except Gary. Thanks buddy.

On to the picks…

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds.html

BALTIMORE (-7) vs. CINCINNATI
No Jamal Lewis again. Good news for Baltimore, however. The Bengals defense, which had made strides in recent weeks, just gave up almost fifty points to the offensively-impaired Browns. This bodes well for Boller's chances to make some noise this weekend. Then there's the matter of the Ravens defense. Something tells me we aren't going to see a Cincinnati offensive explosion this week. I know seven points is a decent amount to leave on the table, but the Ravens, at home, coming off a loss, with improved QB play (at least against the poorer defenses), and I like the Ravens in this one. PICK: Ravens

DETROIT (-6) vs. ARIZONA
Detroit shouldn't be favored against many teams this year, but I have to admit that Arizona is one of the ones they should. At the same time, Detroit should not be favored against ANYONE by six points. I don't care who the opponent is or where the game is being played - Detroit is a bad team with an ok defense. Well, that sounds a lot like Arizona. Six points sounds like a little much. It's tough picking Arizona, of course. Kind of like the same feeling you get when someone catches you singing a Spin Doctors' song. You know the feeling. You catch someone staring at you…stop singing immediately…then nervously glance around the room, hoping no one noticed. Not that this happened to me this week. Anyway, about the game -- I mean, Arizona is bad enough. Now throw a rookie quarterback in there? With no Emmitt Smith? It's tough to go out on that limb. But go I will. PICK: Cardinals

INDIANAPOLIS (-10.5) vs. TENNESSEE
I've said it all year long and there's no reason to go back on it now. Take the Colts no matter what. Amazing to think that if Peyton Manning throws three touchdowns, his TD/game rate actually goes DOWN! PICK: Colts

MINNESOTA (-7) at CHICAGO
Poor Bears. As if it wasn't bad enough that Randy Moss is getting healthier by the day, now they've got to go to battle with Chad Hutchinson being backed up by Jeff George. Toss in a sprinkle of Onterrio Smith, a dash of Daunte Culpepper, and a big serving of Moss, and you've got yourself advantage, Vikes. PICK: Vikings

NEW YORK JETS (Off) vs. HOUSTON
It appears that all systems are go for Chad Pennington's return. If this happens, don't worry about how many points you're laying because the Jets will win in convincing fashion. The lack of a line right now is strictly due to Pennington, but you can be certain it won't hit double digits. That's how many I think the Jets will win by, so feel comfortable taking them regardless of the line. PICK: Jets

OAKLAND (Off) vs. KANSAS CITY
The highlight of the Raiders' season came this past week, when they marched into Denver and stole a victory before a prime time audience. Can they knock off a second consecutive division rival? Tough to say. The Raiders are either a team beginning to find something of a stride down the stretch or an enigma that will never really be solved. Kansas City, meanwhile, is clearly not the same team in its current, Priest-less form. Bad as I think the Raiders are, Kerry Collins should actually be able to put up some numbers against this Chiefs team. And with no Priest and a banged-up Trent Green, well call me crazy but I think the Raiders can win this thing. PICK: Raiders

PITTSBURGH (-3) at JACKSONVILLE
Alright, I haven't come out and said it yet until now, but here goes. This will be the week that Roethlisberger cracks. I know, you're probably sitting there wondering why I keep giving probably too much credit to the Jags. Call me stubborn. I really think they have a playoff run in them, and wouldn't be at all surprised to see them kick it off this week with a big home win. In recent weeks, Roethlisberger has looked more and more mortal. Now, I'm not going to go as far as to say he isn't the real deal; even suggesting such a thing is downright preposterous. But I think teams are just starting to give him some different looks defensively, and he isn't picking up on them quite like in the early going. One thing you can be sure of is that Jack Del Rio has something up his sleeve. Jacksonville is fighting for its playoff life in the tough AFC, and I see them coming up big this week. PICK: Jaguars

SAN DIEGO (-3) vs. DENVER
You know, I'd feel a lot more confident about this Charger team winning Sunday if Denver hadn't lost to the Raiders. As it stands, I don't see the Broncos losing two in a row to rival teams like that. They got their wake-up call, and will be ready to roll in what is going to be a huge AFC West contest. To prove my impartiality, I'm going against the Bolts for a number of reasons. First, despite all their success, I have a tough time placing them with the elite teams just yet based on who they've beaten and lost to this year. Second, Denver handled Tomlinson and company the first time around, and should expect something of a repeat performance this week. Much as it pains me to say it, PICK: Broncos

SAINT LOUIS (-10.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Alright, it's totally official. The 49ers are bad. Horrible. The worst team in the league. But you knew that already. The thing is, they aren't just bad. I'm talking John McEnroe show bad. Kudos to those of you who saw this coming. I saw a team that, while I didn't think they'd contend for any playoff spots, I figured would at least compete in its games. But to get beaten fairly soundly by the Dolphins, one of the worst teams in NFL history? Wow. Now you've got the Rams, who may start working Steven Jackson into the offensive mix just in time for the playoff stretch run. And they're home. Now I know what you're thinking…the Rams are not to be trusted at any time, right? Normally, I'd agree with that. But I can't shake the feeling that this 49ers team is just a historically bad team. I think for one week, we may see a return to a Rams aerial show. It's tough to lay 10.5 points with an unpredictable outfit like the one in Saint Loo. Plus, you've got a slightly banged-up receiving corps for the Rams, and it's not as if the run game has been great regardless of who's been back there. But if there ever was a time for an offensive explosion, this is it. PICK: Rams

TAMPA BAY (-1.5) vs. ATLANTA
The Bucs are thisclose to being finished. The Falcons are thisclose to securing a home playoff game as well as a first-round bye. The Falcons have Michael Vick. The Bucs do not. The Falcons are going to win this game. The Bucs won't. By taking Atlanta, you also are GETTING POINTS (?!?). This is another of those games that doesn't require a brain. It is, in laymen's terms, a no-brainer. PICK: Falcons

WASHINGTON (-2) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
Well, the rest of the country may not care so much. But I, for one, will be sitting glued to the television set this weekend watching the Redskins/Giants tilt. I will be focused on each and every play that happens, taking care to not miss a single second of the action. Of course, the fact that I'm one of the game reporters for FBG and was assigned this matchup may have something to do with that. But I like to think I'd be focused and attentive anyway. To quote Jerry Seinfeld, "Not bloody likely!".

As for the game, bad as each of these teams has played in recent weeks, I still like the Giants to come up big every now and then. They've still got Tiki Barber, and that trumps all else. When in doubt, go with the team that has the best player. In this case, that player is Barber. The Redskins defense is better, but their offense is just so incredibly inept, it's a wonder they ever move the ball. The Giants won't stifle Clinton Portis like the Steelers were able to, but I also don't see him lighting it up, either. PICK: Giants

SEATTLE (-7) vs. DALLAS
Could we be seeing signs of life out of Dallas? Now that they've got a running game, do not count this team out from making a playoff run. Of course, this week they go up against the, ahem, division-leading Seahawks. Seriously, Seattle would be what, 4th in the AFC East? I mean really, what a pathetic division champ they're shaping up to be.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, didn't face an especially tough opponent Thanksgiving Day, but they did what they needed to do. That's more than can be said about most of their performances this year.

[On a side note, the Thanksgiving show may have been the first and only halftime show that exceeded expectations. My only problem? Watching Beyonce strut around, one thought kept entering my mind -- where was Justin Timberlake to cause a wardrobe malfunction when you actually wanted one?

And on a side note of my side note. Can't you just picture this? Jay-Z and Roy Williams at a Destiny's Child concert in support of their women…suddenly they glance in each other's direction and give one another approving nods before breaking into big grins, as if to say, "Well if we aren't the two luckiest S.O.B's on Earth!" I mean, Jay-Z? He looks like a fatter Dwight Gooden! Ok, I'm officially WAY off-topic now.]

Alright, suddenly-overachieving Cowboys bunch against horribly-disappointing Seahawks team? Oh wait, and I'm getting seven? Yeah alright, I've made my decision. PICK: Cowboys

BEST BETS

PHILADELPHIA (-6) vs. GREEN BAY
Anyone else think this line's a little small? It's almost as if people expect a repeat of last year's Eagles/Packers tilt and that it'll be a close game throughout. Well, here's a newsflash. The Packers aren't as good as they were last year, and the Eagles are much better. This game won't be this close. Green Bay's offensive show they've put on during this winning streak has helped mask the defensive deficiencies that are still very prevalent. The Eagles will certainly take this game by more than a touchdown. PICK: Eagles

BUFFALO (-3.5) at MIAMI
It's going to take a lot for people to get on board with me on this one, but let me repeat: the Bills are a good team. I know, I know - you look at the record, look at the losses they've suffered, and tend to disagree. But if not for a couple of early tough losses, this Bills team could be right in the thick of the wild card chase. Lucky for us, we only have to look at this week. Even if you didn't like the Bills all that much, do you honestly think the Dolphins will possibly win twice in a row? Hmm? To quote Pat Summerall, "NOPE!" PICK: Bills

NEW ENGLAND (Off) at CLEVELAND
This line can't get big enough for me. A rookie QB against the Patriots. Right. Seriously, you couldn't hold me back from taking New England no matter the spread. PICK: Patriots by a lot

NEW ORLEANS (-1.5) vs. CAROLINA
Here we go. In my Power Rankings article, I've been calling Carolina dead and buried for weeks now. Even this week, I reinforced that notion. And here I am, picking them to cover and win against the Saints. Well, that's what happens when you play the Saints usually - you win! On a side note, I'm starting Nick Goings in two leagues this week ahead of some other solid options. Yes, I think the Saints are that terrible. PICK: Panthers

LOCK OF THE WEEK: New England Patriots

By the numbers

• Last week
  Overall: 10-4
  Best bets: 3-1
  Lock of the week: 2-0



• Year to date
  Overall: 86-66-3 (56.6%)
  Best bets: 28-16 (63.6%)
  Lock of the week: 7-4 (63.6%)