Be verrrrry careful this week.

Take a look at the favorites. All but two are home teams. The only road favorites are the Colts and Eagles, and that's mostly because they're going up against the powerhouses in Houston and Washington. Oooooh, scary. In all seriousness, though, you ought to be a little scared this week. There are a whole bunch of giant point spreads, home team favorites all over the joint, and a gaggle (that's right, a gaggle) of teams hovering around that line of mediocrity between 5-7 and 7-5. Add that all up, and what have you got? The official A.C.H.E., or "Anything Can Happen" week. The E is silent and doesn't stand for anything.

Of course, you might look at my recent pick history and think to yourself, "But this is The Profit we're talking about here. He can't possibly steer me wrong!" Well, I'll try my best not to. But as John Mason warned us in the T.V. edited version of The Rock, "Your best?!? Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and [date] the prom queen."

Now, do you feel it? Do you sense it coming? That's right, it's a clumsy segue.

So yeah, speaking of The Rock, there was this one time back in college that I'd like to share. It was early afternoon, I felt like watching The Rock for the 10,078th time, so I popped it in there. My roommate (now one of my best friends and a FBG subscriber, so yeah he's done well for himself) was off to class. He was out the door. He was halfway down the hall. Suddenly, the door to the room swings back open again. What's this? He's CUTTING CLASS TO WATCH THE ROCK! To that point, it was the single-greatest example of finding an excuse to avoid class that I'd ever seen. I since found several other better examples, such as, "I really wanted IHOP pancakes" or, "It seemed like such a sin to waste such good sleeping weather". But at the time, oh that movie really hit the spot. Seriously, one of the most quotable movies in the history of American cinema, and I do NOT think I'm exaggerating this point.

Apologies to those who couldn't care less, but I feel I'm at a point with you, the loyal audience, where I can share stories and assume you might give a crap about them. And if not, then at the very least I know you're reading this for my staggering insight into the world of pro football. Either one's fine with me.

MAIL

I received a couple of notes this past week about some commentary I made, so I figured as long as the mailbag for the Power Rankings has slowed to Drew Bledsoe speed, I may as well incorporate it here.

We'll open with our old friend Gary, the lone e-mailer last week. Short and sweet, but an e-mail nonetheless.

Thanks for the mention in the column today! Are you sure about the Patriots? Looks like the line is 11 right now??

Oh, I was sure about the Patriots, let me tell you. I felt the combo of the Patriots' great and the Browns' horrible was too much to pass up. The Browns' horrible what, you ask? Well, nothing specific - just the "horrible" that they possess in every aspect.

From a reader named Scott S.

You wrote, "The Packers aren't as good as they were last year". Can you explain why please? The offense is better, rush defense is better, pass defense about the same.

Here's why Green Bay will win:
-Eagles D can be beaten.
-Green Bay hasn't won at Philly since 1962 - overdue.
-Payback for last year. Granted, the Eagles were T.O-less, but the Pack dominated both games and made one mistake that was the result of the loss.
-Ten and one is what everyone is looking at. But it's 10-1 vs. junk.

Scott, I have to hold to my assertions that Green Bay is not the team they were a year ago. Now of course, it'd be easy for me to come out and go on and on about how badly Green Bay was dominated in the game, but that much is obvious. The assertions about the offense being better is a flawed statement. I'm as big on stats as the next guy, but no one is going to convince me that the Packer offense is anywhere near what it was a year ago. Granted, Favre is having just as big a year, Javon Walker and Donald Driver are enjoying outstanding seasons, and Ahman Green is doing well when healthy. But that's the big issue, the health. Green clearly isn't having the season he did a year ago, and a large part of that is due to the offensive line health. They've had to deal with numerous injuries since training camp, some of which haven't healed up at all and others that have been added to the list. As for the defense, the statistics can back up your claims but not reality so much. When a team is consistently beaten deep like Green Bay is, when the tackling is that shoddy over this long a period of time, the stats only go so far. The reality is that this is not the team we saw go into Philly a year ago and almost come away with a win.

As for the game itself, yes I agree that the Eagles D can be beaten. However, it's imperative that you at least slow their offense (as Pittsburgh was able to do) or else you'll be playing from behind all game long and their defense will be able to just tee off. Second, the payback issue isn't a big thing in gambling. Sure, every now and then it happens (see: Patriots vs. Bills 2003). But you can't base anything on that, because then every divisional game would feature payback the second time they play because someone would always win the first game (assuming no ties). Third, and perhaps most importantly, never, ever, EVER bet based on someone being "due". The gambler's fallacy has bankrupted many a bettor. Finally, 10-1 may not be against the powerhouses of the league, but I'm not about to fault them for that. Most feel that either Atlanta or Green Bay is the 2nd best team in the NFC. Well, one of them was shut out by a then-4-7 team last week and the other got their heads handed to them. The Eagles are clearly the class of the conference, no matter how you slice it.

From a reader named James, with regard to the Steelers/Jags tilt: If Bill Belichick, Joe Gibbs, and Bill Parcells did not have something "up their sleeve", how can Jack Del Rio? Not to mention Andy Reid and Marvin Lewis. You are giving Del Rio way more credit than he has earned. The Jags may beat the Steelers, but it will not be because Del Rio has figured something out that no one else has.

James, you are completely right. It was the wrong comment to use. I wasn't trying to imply that Del Rio in some way knew something that these others didn't; moreso, I was saying that little-by-little, each week, Roethlisberger was playing a little bit worse. Each time someone coached against him, that much more knowledge was gained about his strengths/weaknesses. Del Rio is a great defensive mind, so I incorrectly assumed that this would be the week when someone is finally able to get to Big Ben. I was wrong about that, but I was more wrong about giving Del Rio undeserved credit, and good job calling me on it.

On to the picks…

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds.html

ARIZONA (-6.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO

Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

ATLANTA (-7.5) vs. OAKLAND
Oakland has been firing on multiple cylinders lately, and the offensive showing they've been putting up has been pretty amazing for a team with no running game to speak of. But considering they're coming off losing to the Chiefs DESPITE that offensive firepower, that shows that they aren't really very good. The Falcons just got embarrassed by the Bucs (which I predicted in their first matchup this year, but not the second - great) to the tune of 27-0. They aren't out looking to exact revenge against Oakland, per se, but they are looking to come out and make a statement that they are still one of the league's elite teams. Whether the Falcons defense can do much to slow Oakland's offensive show is debatable, but there is absolutely no questioning the fact (yes, fact) that Michael Vick and the Falcons offense will move the ball almost at will. PICK: Falcons

BALTIMORE (-10) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
Oh, those tricky oddsmakers. They know we can't lay ten points with the Ravens offense such as it is. They also know we can't take the Giants under any circumstances because, well, did you see them last week against the Redskins? (Most likely not, since it was a horrible matchup of two horrible teams and everyone and their mother has Sunday Ticket except me.) But annnnnnnnyway, if you had seen the game, you'd have seen that Eli Manning, for right now at least, stinks. It wouldn't shock me in the least to see him throw a couple of touchdowns this week - to Ed Reed. Combine that with the Ravens' very poor showing last week in the latter stages against the Bengals, and it's easy to see that this is going to be a long week for New York. It's tough to give ten with such a weak offense like Baltimore (also without Jamal Lewis still), but the ineptitude of the Giants almost forces you to. PICK: Ravens

DALLAS (-7) vs. NEW ORLEANS
Dallas is peaking at the right time. New Orleans peaked in 2000 already, and it's about time this current group got broken up. That said, Dallas isn't a team you think of blowing anyone out. They aren't going to waltz in and blow the roof off the place, running game or not. And when you consider that they allowed a struggling Seahawks offense with a lot of potential (similar to a struggling Saints offense with a lot of potential) go for over 400 yards and touchdowns all over the joint, it isn't hard to envision a repeat performance. Bad as the Saints are, their badness comes in the form of disappointment rather than outright stinkitude. They get close to winning, perhaps even hold a lead in the fourth quarter, but always find a way to come up short. That won't change this week, but they'll be in it and won't give up more than a touchdown lead at the end. PICK: Saints

DENVER (-11.5) vs. MIAMI
Let's go over this again. Never EVER take A.J. Feeley on the road. Especially when that road is Denver. PICK: Broncos

INDIANAPOLIS (-10.5) at HOUSTON
Yes, Houston probably remembers having the score run up on them. Yes, the game is not in Indianapolis, but rather, in Houston. Yes, the Colts' defense can be had and the Texans' offense is explosive. Yes, the last time these two teams played, I warned everyone that the Texans were like a mini-me version of the Colts and could just as easily jump up on them as they could be jumped on. But at this point? None of that matters. Take the Colts and move along. PICK: Colts

JACKSONVILLE (-7) vs. CHICAGO
As I sat watching Pittsburgh win the other night, something hit me. Jacksonville played an absolutely perfect game against the Steelers, yet came out on the losing end. Two things stood out about that. One - Pittsburgh is a truly awesome team. Two - the Jags did what most others have been unable to do, and that's run the ball on them. Now, rather than facing Ben Roethlisberger, they get Chad Hutchinson. Yeah, yeah, Hutchinson is better than he used to be, NFL Europe did him a lot of good, the Bears would be 12-0 if he was in there all year, etc and so forth. Well, the Jags have a pretty decent QB of their own, and we will see just how large the difference is between the two this week. It's tough to take the Jags giving seven points since most of their games are so close, but I feel like this is a breakout week for them offensively. PICK: Jaguars

MINNESOTA (-6.5) vs. SEATTLE
Seattle just keeps plummeting further and further into oblivion. Minnesota loses to the Bears. Each of these teams was expected to contend for the NFC Championship this year, but now the best they can hope for is to be the first team to get bounced by the Eagles. Still, a healthy (or at least healthier) Randy Moss would go a long way towards restoring the Vikings to the NFC's elite. If he's good to go one of these weeks, they could yet make some noise in the playoff picture. Considering what they've still got to play for and considering the absolute freefall that Seattle is in, it's tough to justify picking the Hawks in this one. So I won't. PICK: Vikings

NEW ENGLAND (-11) vs. CINCINNATI
Tough game to call here. You want to say New England, but every once in awhile, they have those games where they just manage to get by. This seems to be one of those weeks. You know, the kind of game where they're just holding on, holding on, holding on, and then time runs out. It happens several times a year, and I figure this is as good a bet as any to be one of those weeks. That means the Bengals will be in it to the very end. PICK: Bengals

SAN DIEGO (-5.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
If San Diego is going to slip up, this is going to be the week. Yes, I've said that at least 14 times this year, but this time I really mean it (or maybe it's the fear of the reverse jinx speaking). Either way, it's better to be safe than sorry. In addition, it's better to be right than wrong. The Saints manhandled the Falcons last week. Granted, the Falcons are not proud owners of one Ladainian Tomlinson, either. But they ARE a first-place team with the division title seemingly in hand, favored by a decent amount, against a supposedly inferior opponent fighting and clawing just to stay alive…lots of similarities there. I say Tampa's defense does enough to keep them in it, and there's at least a decent chance of their offense doing enough to win it. Don't get me wrong, I'm not rooting for a close game here. But I do expect it. PICK: Bucs

TENNESSEE (Off) vs. KANSAS CITY
Something tells me the ABC producers were looking to hype a late-season battle between Steve McNair's Titans and Priest Holmes and his Kansas City Chiefs. Instead, we get the NFL's version of Barbra Streisand mud-wrestling Aretha Franklin. (Please forgive me for putting that mental image in your mind.) Anyway, the Titans are banged-up. The Chiefs are banged-up. The Chiefs, despite the loss of Holmes, are less banged-up. PICK: Chiefs to cover whatever the spread is

BEST BETS

BUFFALO (Off) vs. CLEVELAND
What good reason could there possibly be for not giving a line on this game? The status of the Cleveland quarterbacks matters little. Very little. In fact, not at all. The Bills are making a surge, and will trample the Browns this week. Trample, I say! PICK: Bills, whatever the spread is

CAROLINA (-6.5) vs. SAINT LOUIS
I really must love contradicting myself. I keep telling everyone how dead the Saints are in my Power Rankings column, then turn around and pick them each week right here. Well, why should things change now, especially with Bulger out, Jackson likely out, and Faulk old? PICK: Panthers

GREEN BAY (-9.5) vs. DETROIT
I wonder if Green Bay is going to rebound from that embarrassing performance last week. Hmm, if only they got to play a bad team in the cold, at home, and that bad team had an especially bad offense and terrible quarterback that they could destroy all game long. Why, what's this? Christmas in Green Bay is coming this weekend! PICK: Packers

PITTSBURGH (-6) vs. NEW YORK JETS
Though I've got them ranked very highly in the Power Rankings, I'm of the belief that there is a distinct line drawn after the fourth-ranked Colts. The next several teams are interchangeable on an almost weekly basis. The Steelers are not part of this group, and are rather part of the elite. The fact that they haven't been able to cover the past two weeks matters little, because they were going up against teams that matched up well with them. I wouldn't put this Jets team in that class of teams that match up well with Pitt. In fact, I don't really expect this game to be very close at all. PICK: Steelers

BONUS BEST BET

PHILADELPHIA (-9) at WASHINGTON
Do not, I repeat do NOT be fooled by the showing the Redskins gave last week. That is the exception to the rule. Or, more specifically, that's what happens when you play the Giants late in the season and they are starting a rookie quarterback even though they've got a veteran who is a proven winner who led the team to a respectable start even though he was having problems but now those problems are revealing themselves in much worse fashion and people are realizing it wasn't the veteran's fault. So in other words, don't put much stock into Washington's dominant performance. I presume Vegas isn't putting much stock into it, either, making them 9-point underdogs at home. Even so, I wouldn't hesitate to give more than that and take the Eagles, because they just annihilated Green Bay. Who's to say they won't do the same to the Skins? PICK: Eagles

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Green Bay Packers

By the numbers

• Last week
  Overall: 8-7-1
  Best bets: 4-0
  Lock of the week: 1-0



• Year to date
  Overall: 94-73-4 (56.3%)
  Best bets: 32-16 (66.6%)
  Lock of the week: 8-4 (66.6%)

(Now quick, let's get out of here before someone realizes I picked all favorites for Best Bets!)