Whew, I survived it. After seeing what appeared to be a disastrous week salvaged by some of the late games, I held on for a decent mark this week. I warned you last week about the perils of betting on last week's games, a sentiment echoed by ESPN's own Bill Simmons. (On a side note, I'm fairly certain that Mr. Simmons reads my stuff and replicates it as much as possible. Since my article comes out on Thursday and his isn't until Friday, it's fairly obvious I'm being copied here. Now back to our regularly-scheduled program.)

So now that the "danger" week has come and gone, one should feel fully confident right? Not so fast. Granted, I feel pretty confident in this week's pick set. But still, the only thing worse than surviving the danger week is thinking that you're alright just because you survived the danger week. Now comes the tough part of ensuring you don't fall prey to a seemingly "easy" slate of games. It's this point in the season when things begin to get a little strange. After all, you've got some teams playing less meaningful games than others, some teams who are dangerous because of the "nothing to lose" syndrome, and others who we just plain haven't been able to figure out all season (I'm talking to you, Tampa). So it's still tough out there. My goal? Well, I'd like to make sure this Christmas season that Johnny can get that new bike or Suzie will find her favorite doll under the tree. Oh, and lest we forget the helpful FBG staff like myself who deserve a cut for all the work we did in assisting your fantasy success (Kevan who? Donte Stall-what? Seriously, I've never even HEARD of this Lee Suggs you keep talking about!).

So I know everyone's anxious to get on with the weekly picks. After all, if you've been teasing combinations of my best bets, you've made yourself some nice extra spending money this Christmas. Now don't forget my cut!

(You knew I'd find some way to stroke my own ego, right?)

On to the picks…

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds.html

ATLANTA (-3.5) vs. CAROLINA
The first time these teams squared off was in Carolina, and Atlanta waltzed off with a 17-point victory. About the only thing I see changing this time around is that Atlanta is now home, Carolina is down a few running backs and has had to rely on Nick Goings (doing a decent job but by no means a star), and Michael Vick's play is much improved all-around. Carolina's had a nice run, but there will be a bump in the road this week. I know it's the unpopular pick, but that's the very reason to go with it. PICK: Falcons

CHICAGO (-1) vs. HOUSTON
This line is confusing. Know why? Because the Texans are a decent team, and the Bears stink. PICK: Texans

GREEN BAY (-3.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
Haven't we learned by now? The AFC is far superior to the NFC. The 6th-best team in the AFC could probably hang with the NFC's second-best unit. Outside of Philadelphia, you could make a case that 11 of the top 12 teams in the NFL reside in the AFC. Sure, it'd be a stretch but no one could prove you wrong, could they? Which brings us to this game. On the one hand, Green Bay is a division-leading team playing at home, yada yada. Jacksonville is an up-and-comer going to a cold-weather climate to take on the mighty Favre. Well, call me crazy but I can't get past that AFC/NFC thing. I think Jacksonville, if placed in the NFC, would be looking at a first-round bye. I think they shock some people, but not me, but going into Green Bay and coming out with a win. PICK: Jaguars

INDIANAPOLIS (-8) vs. BALTIMORE
What's that rule again? Oh yes, take the Colts and lay the points. What's that you say? They're playing the Ravens? Hmm, I'll give it a second thought - and then I'll take the Colts anyway. Yeah, Stokley's questionable with a groin injury - that just means someone else grabs his monstrous stats. PICK: Colts

KANSAS CITY (-1) vs. DENVER
One game does not a season make, for either of these two teams. Larry Johnson rumbling all over the hapless Titans is very different from trying to run on a desperate Broncos team.

By the way, is this Bronco team the epitome of all recent Broncos teams, or what? Fast start, run game working, pass game working well enough, defense playing well…suddenly, a loss, and a win, then two losses, then all of a sudden they're out of the playoffs. I mean, it's uncanny!

Anyway, I think this week they get themselves back on track a little bit. Most saw the Chiefs doing their thing last week against Tennessee, but a lot of those points and plays the Kansas City offense mustered up was against terribly blown coverage (which Denver won't do) and awful tackling (which Denver won't do). And it's not as if the Chiefs defense came to play, either (See: Bennett, Drew). PICK: Broncos

MINNESOTA (-3) at DETROIT
Wouldn't wagering on games be OH SO MUCH EASIER if we had, say, the results of Randy Moss's latest MRI included with the line? Because seriously, this Vikings offense is seriously flawed with a less-than-100% Moss in it. And he is very clearly less than 100%. How much less? It's difficult to tell. If a typical Randy Moss can go for 200 yards and three scores at any time, then what would a 50% Moss be? 100 yards and 2 scores? Not likely. But that's just the thing - we don't know. Was the 100-yard game last week an anomaly, or the beginning of his resurgence? I've detailed on many an occasion just how much he means to this offense, and each week that is being proven more and more to be the case. Losses to struggling Chicago and Seattle teams is NOT what I expected out of this bunch in the early going. Remember, this is a team that made Chad Hutchinson look good two weeks back. You've got to assume Joey Harrington is at LEAST as good as Hutchinson, no? Add in that the game is being played in Detroit, and there are a lot of things to be scared off about in this game. When in doubt, I'll take the desperate team with better players all over the field. It's a risky call, but I'll go with the Vikes. PICK: Vikings

NEW YORK JETS (-6) vs. SEATTLE
The answer: "Something the Seattle Seahawks will not do again this season."

The question: "What is win back-to-back road games against playoff teams?"

Correct! PICK: Jets

OAKLAND (-2.5) vs. TENNESSEE
A lot of people are going to be hooked into taking Oakland this week based upon how poor Tennessee looked last week. Listen, this isn't a technical thing or a talent thing or an analytical thing, but the Titans as we know them have always been a very proud, tough group of players. That all starts with the head coach and goes all the way down to the very last guy on the roster. The Raiders are, to put it mildly, bad. Now granted, the Titans looked lost Monday night against the Chiefs. But don't get fooled into thinking that can happen again. I don't think I'll ever make a 4-9 team my lock of the week, but I have to admit it was pretty tempting to do so this week. PICK: Titans

PHILADELPHIA (-12.5) vs. DALLAS
This is a silly line. I know, I've told you all season long to take Philly and Indy and don't look back or think twice. But this week is different. For starters, the Eagles may not even need this game by the time kickoff comes around. They could very easily have a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs locked up by Saturday evening. That alone MUST give you pause to bet them up in this game. Secondly, Dallas isn't quite dead in the water yet. Bill Parcells is talking about next year and building up for 2005 and so on and so forth. But don't believe for one second that he isn't still thinking playoffs, not only in the back of his mind, but the front as well. This is the guy who brought in Vinny Testaverde at halftime of a seemingly hopeless game in a seemingly hopeless season just because there was the slightest chance of making the playoffs. You've got to believe that he's thinking, 'win this one against an Eagle team that doesn't need it, then take the last two and we could be in great shape'. It's not too tough to envision. Now, should Philly still need this game heading into Sunday, it's fairly likely they win it outright. But even so, for a team coming off a win against a Redskins team that was thisclose, a nearly thirteen point spread is a little much for me to handle. PICK: Cowboys

SAN DIEGO (-10) at CLEVELAND
A lot of rumbling about this game. Lottttttttttt of rumbling. There are two distinct sides of the fence in this one, with no middle ground. Either the Chargers are going to come in like a monsoon and blow the place down, or the Browns are going to shock the NFL world and come to play for a change, with nothing to lose. Since one of those two things has actually HAPPENED this year, I'm going with the former. PICK: Chargers

SAINT LOUIS (-1.5) at ARIZONA
Ouch, tough game. Oddsmakers really put us in a bind on this one. There are plenty of reasons to bet for or against either team here, but with Arizona coming off a loss to the 49ers of all teams, I can't give them more credit than they deserve. Sure, they could beat a Chris Chandler-led Rams team, but it isn't likely. And besides, there are rumors that Marc Bulger could return this weekend, which makes all of this moot. If Bulger's in, the Rams will win. If Bulger's out, you've got to sweat it out. And yes, I just rhymed 'out' with 'out'. PICK: Rams

TAMPA BAY (-7.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
My fellow fans and bettors, if you are going to wager large sums of money on this game, I say more power to you. This is one of, if not THE most impossible call to make for the 2004 season. The most unpredictable team in the league taking on the second-most unpredictable team in the league, and I have no idea which is which. For this game, I'm going to actually flip a coin. So please do not bet with any confidence on this one. Heads = Bucs and Tails = Saints. PICK: Saints (I have to be honest - after the fact, I'm kind of upset it didn't come out heads. It's like a 50.1-49.1% split, but rules are rules.)

BEST BETS

PITTSBURGH (-10) at NEW YORK GIANTS
Eli Manning is still the Giants quarterback. Eli Manning…is still…the Giants quarterback. It's not as if they're 2-10 and headed nowhere. There was still a shot at a postseason berth, and in my opinion (and every other head coach in the league), when you've got a shot at making the playoffs you go for it. If Coughlin had the fortitude to go back on his decision, admit he was wrong, and bench Manning, the Giants may yet have stolen one or two of these games and would still be in the driver's seat. As it stands, however, each game just makes San Diego's extra first-rounder next year that much better. Oh, did I mention the Steelers are the best team in the NFL? Good, because they'll be proving it again this Saturday. PICK: Steelers

WASHINGTON (-4) at SAN FRANCISCO
Washington a road favorite? By more than 1? Seems impossible, but it's not only possible, but it's also likely they cover. Because of their offensive ineptitude thus far, the job being done by this defense is being seriously pushed to the back of the news. But this is a stellar unit. Can you imagine if they hadn't traded Champ Bailey for Clinton Portis? Right, no Shawn Springs. But man, they might never have given up a TD! As it stands, the D is still pretty good. And believe it or not, the offense is showing signs of life and coming around. One thing you can be sure of is that no Joe Gibbs-coached team is throwing in the towel late in the year, even with seemingly nothing to play for. And with Dennis Erickson flirting with Ole Miss this week and the team generally in shambles, this is the wrong week for the Niners to come up with a big game. PICK: Redskins

CINCINNATI (Pk) vs. BUFFALO
Another confusing line. On the one hand, Cincinnati has played better recently and made it close against the Pats last week. On the other, the Bills have played exceptionally well lately. What happened in the first four weeks is only relevant to their playoff chances, not to their current status. The fact is that Buffalo is right now one of the league's hottest teams, both offensively and defensively. They'll be taking on a Cincy team with a likely rusty Jon Kitna at the helm. The only reason this line is close is because of how poorly Buffalo started. Considering they could very easily be 9-4 right now with a couple of early-season breaks shows me that this team is legit. PICK: Bills

NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) at MIAMI
Patriots. Don't even give it a second look. PICK: Patriots

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Pittsburgh Steelers

By the numbers

• Last week
  Overall: 9-7
  Best bets: 3-1
  Lock of the week: 0-1
• Year to date
  Overall: 103-80-4 (56.3%)
  Best bets: 35-17 (67.3%)
  Lock of the week: 8-5 (61.5%)