No, I'm not upset. I'm not upset with the Patriots for failing to cover a game that they had in the bag. Not upset in the least that my lock of the week….widely considered to be one of the best teams EVER…playing a team widely considered to be one of the worst teams EVER…with a ten-point lead late in the fourth quarter…failed to not only cover, but also failed to win. No, that didn't add any bitterness to the fact that I'd already dropped the Atlanta game by half a point or the Vikings game because the Lions couldn't make an extra point. Like I said, I can't be upset by this. It's just that around Christmastime, it's tough on the wallet to drop two games by a combined 2.5 points and another in the gross fashion New England did it. Oh well, guess I'll have to come up with that gift money some other way.

As for our week in question, I will remind everyone once again to be careful betting against teams with seemingly "nothing to play for". Unless you're betting against the Giants, who always turn into a bunch of quitters late in the season.

[One of the perks of writing for this site, as opposed to ESPN.com or something…I can call the Giants quitters without having to worry about Jeremy Shockey physically assaulting me afterwards.]

So yeah, you've still got to be careful on a few of these. Every year, we see some teams that are "sure bets" to lose (Miami) come up with that one big game out of nowhere. And just as surely, we bet against a team that seemingly has "nothing to play for", but they come out and kick hiney anyway. Most of all, you don't want to get too crazy right now because this is not the time of year when everything makes sense. There, now I've got myself a perfectly solid alibi in case I got 12-20 these last two weeks :

No matter the case, happy holidays everyone. I hope these picks have enabled you to buy you and yours a little something nice this holiday season. Time will tell if we'll be ringing in the New Year a little bit richer.

On to the picks…

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds.html

MINNESOTA (-3) vs. GREEN BAY
Forget the "Favre in Minnesota" thing for a moment. Let's just key on the facts at hand here without taking that into consideration. The Viking machine is back up and rolling again with a seemingly 100% Randy Moss. I know, I know, they didn't blitz Detroit out of the water with an air show or anything, but one gets the feeling that that's just around the corner. The defense really let down on that last drive and were, of course, bailed out by the botched extra point. And yes, the Green Bay offense is far superior to the one in Detroit. But at the same time, has anyone seen just how awful the Packers defense is? I'll answer that question: yes, we've all seen it. So why put any faith in it? Why believe that they can march into Minnesota and grab a win, when they couldn't even hold serve at Lambeau against the Jaguars? Now, after having heard all that, NOW think about Favre's history at the dome. I know, you can't base everything on past performance. But that's pretty overwhelming evidence that suggests he struggles there for whatever reason. This should be a great game, but one I think Minnesota's offensive skill guys will have the final hand in deciding. PICK: Vikings

DENVER (-4) at TENNESSEE
Rather than looking for the team that will win this game, let's instead go with the team who has a better chance to lose. We've got a reeling Broncos team, but one whose quarterback still feels is number one. Then on the other hand, we've got a Titans team so wacky that even when you see the white guy receiver making a catch, you STILL have to check the name and number because it could be either or TWO guys! And it's not as if either of these teams has played any one particular way lately to give us a clearer example of how this game will go. I mean, which of these teams is the hotter team? Which one has more problems? They're both coming off losses to seemingly crummy teams. I never follow these rules to a tee, but for this instance, when in doubt I'll go with the more talented team (I think). PICK: Broncos

KANSAS CITY (-7.5) vs. OAKLAND
Either way, the final score will be 63-49. Seriously, I wish you could bet on there being more touchdowns than punts in a game. I'd be all over that. As it stands, I'm merely picking with the points here. And the points tell me that I shouldn't be fooled at the Raiders recent offensive success. Nor should I expect them to hang around with the Chiefs. It's one thing to have a good offensive team to experience an offensive explosion. It's quite another when Kerry Collins is at the helm of it. I don't expect the fireworks to continue for the Raiders, as bad as the Chiefs defense is. Collins may put up some big numbers in defeat, but this game should be decided by more than 7 points. PICK: Chiefs

BUFFALO (-11) at SAN FRANCISCO
Alright, I've been driving this Bills express for awhile now. While I kept dropping them in the Power Rankings after each loss, I continued to back them as a team that wasn't really that bad. Then when they showed a little bit of life as the season wore on, I strongly advised you to take them at most opportunities. But this? Well, this is a little much. You want me to lay ELEVEN points with the Bills, on the road, possibly without Willis McGahee? And Drew Bledsoe is still their quarterback, right? Ok, I have to admit it's still tempting because the 49ers are clearly the worst team we've seen in the NFL in quite some time. But at the same time, I'm having a tough time laying that many points. I assume a Bills win will come, but not by this many. PICK: 49ers

DETROIT (-6) vs. CHICAGO
One of the dumbest stories I've read all year is the one about Brian Urlacher's feelings being hurt by some Sportingnews writer who called him the most overrated player in the NFL. Apparently, he even taped a copy of the article in his locker, I guess for inspiration or something. So let's see…you get inspired reading that some dude from TSN thinks you're overrated? Oh - my - GOD! Let's grow some thicker skin there, number 54. Can you imagine Dick Butkus or Mike Singletary doing that? I mention them because Urlacher was always being compared to those two. Well, for starters, neither of those guys would be considered overrated, because they weren't. (ooooh, did I just insinuate that Brian Urlacher is overrated? Uh-oh, looks like my picture's going up next!). It's this kind of mindset that baffles me. Then we have Lovie Smith angrily defending Urlacher for all the press to see. HOLY CRAP, WHO CARES?!? I know, if no one cares then why am I writing about it now. I just never got around to mentioning it before and I wanted to bring it up now. I think it demonstrates the state of the Bears quite well, when their primary concern is the pride of their linebacker, who is out for the year with another injury, by the way. Meanwhile, Detroit is absolutely ROLLING. They ALMOST won a game last week! PICK: Lions

JACKSONVILLE (-7) vs. HOUSTON
Not having Fred Taylor could spell trouble. Even if he is in, it's trouble already because he'll be at less than 100%. I thank the Jags for their almost constant ability to cover when they're dogs, but the tough part is when they're favored. I didn't do the math on it, and frankly don't feel like researching it right now, but it seems like they have a tough time covering when they're the favored team. That would suggest that we have collectively gotten too high on them after their wins and too low on them with losses. That'll be important to remember this week. Don't think of the Jaguars as the team that went into Lambeau in freezing temperatures and beat the mighty Brett Favre. Think of them as just another team that went on the road to beat yet another mediocre NFC squad (remember, like Tennessee). What I'm saying is, even though I've been hyping Jacksonville all season long, don't think of them as some mighty unstoppable force all of a sudden. They haven't been involved in many games decided by more than seven points one way or the other this season, and against a fellow AFC team, I wouldn't expect that trend to stop now. PICK: Texans

MIAMI (-7) vs. CLEVELAND
Ok, I know they just majorly took it to the Patriots Monday. And yes, Cleveland is also one of the worst teams in the league. But I can not, under any circumstances, lay this many points with a team as bad as Miami. PICK: Browns

NEW ORLEANS (-4.5) vs. ATLANTA
The Atlanta Falcons minus Michael Vick is like Angelina Jolie without her lips. Sure, there are other things that are good, perhaps even great on an individual basis. But the main aspect is taken away, and suddenly the entire thing's not so great anymore. Everyone remembers how well Atlanta played in Vick's absence last season, right? For those of us who had pegged Atlanta as a preseason Super Bowl contender, we surely remember. They are nothing without him. And that has changed little this season. Meanwhile, we've got a surprisingly resilient Saints team on the other side of the field, at home, with their playoff lives on the line. Now granted, that doesn't mean they'll come to play - it would be just like the Saints to lose by 35 - but there's a more sinister reason why the Saints will win. Let's say they get into the playoffs as a wild card entrant (not outside the realm of possibility). That would likely mean Jim Haslett HAS to keep his job, no? That, according to Saints fans I know, would be about the worst thing that could happen to this franchise. Sometimes, you lose even for winning. PICK: Saints

PITTSBURGH (-5.5) vs. BALTIMORE
The popular pick here seems to be Pittsburgh, gaining momentum daily. The theory behind that is that Baltimore beat up on them last time, so Pittsburgh will come out focused and determined and wanting to make a statement, etc, etc. This thinking is seriously flawed. Teams can't just flip the switch on and off at will (except for the 2000 New York Yankees, but that's another story). The Steelers won't be any more "ready" for this game than they were the last time these teams hooked up. This so-called "revenge factor" only works on an individual player basis, not on a team-wide concept. In fact, if the Steelers come out seeking to exact revenge, they'll more than likely fall on their collective faces. Joey Porter can go on one of his rants about the bad-ass Steelers, but if they play out of control then the Ravens will have their way again. Based on some of the quotes I've heard from Steelers throughout the week, it appears that the earlier game this season is very fresh in their minds. In other words, they've fallen into the trap of trying to get revenge rather than do what they normally do. It remains to be seen how the style of this game will go, but can't you just envision a personal foul penalty on Porter leading to a last-minute drive being extended, something along those lines? I think the Ravens will at least be in position to win this game, if not take it outright. PICK: Ravens

SEATTLE (-7) vs. ARIZONA
Arizona sure did a bang-up job last week against the Rams. And the way I figure, they only have about one of those in them. PICK: Seahawks

WASHINGTON (-2) at DALLAS
Boy, the Redskins sure have come a long way since the beginning of the year. They started off as, in my opinion, a wild card competitor, tumbled all the way to the back end of the NFL, and then slowly made their ascent back to a respectable level. Now I know I've said before that I don't have the credentials to question Joe Gibbs, though I did suggest Ramsey see the lineup sooner rather than later. Of course, I also referred to him as Patrick Pansy at one point so I suppose I was MAYBE a bit fickle on that one. Still, there's no question that Ramsey's solid play has revitalized the offense. Meanwhile, Bill Parcells is down in Dallas trying to get a glimpse of the future by running out youthful-looking Vinny Testaverde again. I'm sorry, but I don't see this Dallas offense as being much better than the ones the Redskins have absolutely shut down the past few weeks. And with the Skins offense coming around finally, these are clearly two teams headed in very different directions. PICK: Redskins

SAINT LOUIS (-3) vs. PHILADELPHIA
A lot of people are jumping all over Saint Louis in this one, figuring the Eagles have nothing to play for what with home-field advantage wrapped up and all. I say don't be fooled. The Eagles have a big reason to win this game, and it has nothing to do with standings or home-field or anything. It has to do with their own confidence and the perception on the team. When Terrell Owens broke his leg, all we heard about was how the Eagles were once again doomed and would have trouble going to the Super Bowl without him. In other words, they were suddenly "just another team" in the NFC. Well, I think that upset the Eagles. I think that upset Andy Reid. The Eagles are far from a one-man show. Yes, they're going into Saint Louis which is always tough. Yes, they are playing a team fighting for its playoff life. Yes, they'll be without Owens and, probably, McNabb and Westbrook for much of the game. But no one wants to look bad on a national stage. No team wants to lose. Especially these Eagles. If they lose on Monday, even if the starters play sparingly, there will be talk that the Owens injury has derailed them, true or not. So I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them jump up on the Rams early, do what they need to do, restore order, and show everyone just how much better they are than the rest of the NFC, Owens injury and all. PICK: Eagles

BEST BETS

CINCINNATI (-6) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
Carson Palmer will be to Eli Manning what Ocean's Eleven is to Ocean's Twelve. That is, more polished, more entertaining, and just much better overall. There will actually be substance there, not just a veil of greatness. What I'm saying is, I didn't like Ocean's Twelve. PICK: Bengals

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) vs. SAN DIEGO
In a very strange way, I wouldn't mind a loss here. Now, after reading all about my affinity for all things Charger in the Power Rankings, you may be perplexed by this one. Why would I give up a shot at a first-round bye? Well, for starters, it's completely unrealistic to hope for a first-round bye. If that's a feasible possibility, then great. But as it stands now, I don't see it happening. So that means either the 3 or the 4 seed. All that means is that if they win in Round 1, they go to either Pittsburgh or New England. Either one's going to be a brutal matchup, so it makes little difference. About the only way a loss this week would negatively impact them is if they and the Colts both win in round one, then the Chargers go into Pittsburgh and win, AND Indianapolis goes into New England and wins. Under that scenario, the AFC championship game would be in Indy. Forgive me for finding all of that unlikely, at best. So a loss at this point wouldn't be the worst thing. Now, having said all that, the only reason I wrote this entire write-up is because I do think the Colts win this game anyway and I needed to justify in my mind why it'd be ok. PICK: Colts

NEW ENGLAND (-2.5) at NEW YORK JETS
Jets fans everywhere had to be dismayed at what they saw transpire on Monday night. Sure, it proved the Patriots aren't completely invincible. But here's the downside. Does anyone on earth see them losing two in a row? Seriously. On the one hand, we've got Tom Brady getting blasted all week for making the worst decision of his life (with his haircut a close second). He's going to be about as close to perfect as can be. On the other hand, we've got Chad Pennington (with an equally bad haircut) lecturing the New York media about their responsibilities. Not a recipe for good on-field success. PICK: Patriots

TAMPA BAY (-3) vs. CAROLINA
Why? Why is Tampa favored? PICK: Panthers

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Carolina Panthers

By the numbers

• Last week
  Overall: 9-7
  Best bets: 2-2
  Lock of the week: 0-1



• Year to date
  Overall: 112-87-4 (56.3%)
  Best bets: 37-19 (66.1%)
  Lock of the week: 8-6 (57.1%)