The Profit - Mike Brown

BALTIMORE (-11) vs. MIAMI
"Hey listen, Sage. We wanna get an idea on how good you are. Ya know, trying to evaluate, things like that. So here's what we're gonna do. We want you to start Week 17 against the Ravens. Sure, their defense isn't what it was, but it's still plenty good - and they're mean, to boot. Oh and they're going to be particularly tough this week because they're fighting for their playoff lives, so you know they're gonna be angry as heck and they'll try to come out and smash you good. So anyway, how does that sound?"

SR: "Uh, couldn't you just hit me in the face with a shovel? Wouldn't that be easier? I mean, I AM only Sage Rosenfels, after all. I have no business being on the field with those guys…" PICK: Ravens

BUFFALO (-8.5) vs. PITTSBURGH
Pittsburgh doesn't strike me as the type of team that will just roll over in a game. I know, they've got the postseason to worry about, and if anyone were to get hurt it could prove devastating. But that's why the prime guys will be sitting anyway. Why do I not think it'll matter as much? Because they're being replaced with guys who were original starters. No Big Ben? Ok, Tommy Maddox is in. No Jerome Bettis? Duce Staley's likely to go. Deshea Townsend broke his hand? Let's get Chad Scott suited up. This Steelers team is LOADED with depth at pretty much every spot on the field. Now I know, the game's in Buffalo and I should have learned my lesson last week with the Eagles. Lesson being, don't bet with a team that has nothing to play for against a desperate team with a lot to play for. So I'll learn my lesson from that - somewhat. I won't say Pittsburgh wins the game necessarily, but they do keep it within eight points. PICK: Steelers

CAROLINA (-7.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
If someone told you four weeks ago that this game would be the game of the week in Week 17, you'd probably be amazed at how many times I used the word 'week' in this sentence. And yes I just wrote that line as I went along.

We've got Carolina, underachievers in the season's first half and designated 'Post-Super Bowl flop' team of 2004. Sure, a lot of it was due to injuries but don't forget how they looked even before injuries hit. Now out of nowhere comes this incredible run they're on. They're not going to make a lot of playoff noise, in my opinion, because their road will likely travel through Green Bay and Philadelphia, if they even get that far. But what they've done to this point is astounding. New Orleans, on the other hand, has somehow finagled their way into a late-season playoff run and finds themselves in prime position to get in. And with the talent they have, they can't be discounted. Wait a minute, yes they can. They're the Saints and they are NEVER to be trusted! Whew, almost forgot that for a minute there. PICK: Panthers

CHICAGO (-3) vs. GREEN BAY
Nope, the game means almost nothing for the Packers. But you know what? I'm doing it again. I'm going with the team that has little or nothing to play for. They got me good, those oddsmakers. And they may just get me again. But Favre wants to play, it's Packers/Bears, I mean come on - I HAVE to make this pick. PICK: Packers

CINCINNATI (-3) at PHILADELPHIA
The Bengals will be absolutely desperate to finish at .500. The Eagles showed last week that they are Clark Kent without their starters. Though, to be fair, Clark Kent still had his superpowers when he didn't have the costume on. I always thought he kind of got a bad rap. It's not like he took the cape off and suddenly became some wimpy guy. Remember the bar scene when he regained his powers again? He did that as Clark Kent! Somehow, I feel as though I'm getting a bit off-topic.

So yeah, the Bengals…you just know it means a lot for them to not take a step back this season. Rudi and Kitna may be auditioning for starting roles in '05 (elsewhere likely), Chad Johnson never takes a play off, and they'll be going up against second-rate players on Philly. You KNOW Andy Reid won't risk any of his guys after seeing Owens go down, a couple of years after McNabb suffered a similar injury later in the season. He wants to get in, get out, and get rested. PICK: Bengals

DENVER (-8.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Tough call, this one. That seems to be a recurring theme here these last few weeks, huh? Well if it seems that way, it's because it is. Keep in mind, the early part of the season is when you take advantage of everyone else remembering the previous season too much. Then the middle part of the season is when you use what you've learned to take advantage of everyone else still hung up on last season's and the early-season's results. But by the time the late-season rolls around, usually the oddsmakers know pretty well what they're doing out there. It's tougher and tougher to take advantage of any funny lines, because there aren't as many. This game is a perfect example.

I don't need to go into specifics about why you can bet on either of these teams. I'll just leave it at 'it is a tough call'. I can find reasons to take the Colts, but not with the knowledge that the starters aren't long for the game. I still consider Denver to be one of the better teams in the league, the past few weeks notwithstanding. (The win against Tennessee was a gimme.) Now I normally wouldn't like to give points to the Colts, but without the prolific offense, they aren't much of a scare. Considering we'll probably be seeing a lot of Jim Sorgi and Dominic Rhodes in this one means I've got to take Denver. PICK: Broncos

KANSAS CITY (-3) at SAN DIEGO
I've always wanted to say this: "Eh, this game's meaningless anyway cause we already have our playoff position locked up".

I know it's in San Diego, but we're going to see very little of the starters seeing as how they've got a PLAYOFF GAME the following week. PICK: Chiefs

NEW ENGLAND (-14) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
FOURTEEN POINTS FOR A TEAM THAT HAS NOTHING TO PLAY FOR?!? Alright, listen…I know the Niners are an atrocity, but this is crazy right? Right? Hmmm, maybe it's not. I mean, you can make a case that - oh what am I saying, I can't lay 14 points. PICK: 49ers (timidly)

NEW YORK GIANTS (-2.5) vs. DALLAS
Let me nominate my vote for "Worst Coaching Decision of 2004". It revolves around Tom Coughlin's decision to insert Eli Manning into the starting lineup way too soon and then stick with him for way too long. It reeked of desperation at the time, and reeked of too much pride and an unwillingness to admit a mistake as it went on. The Giants were a legitimate playoff contender, and had enough pieces to make it work. And as it stands, falling apart down the stretch doesn't even help them as much as it does for other teams because the Giants first pick next year will reside in sunny So-Cal. The second-worst coaching decision of 2004 has to be the decision to continue running Eddie George out onto the field in the early part of 2004. That put the Cowboys into a deep rut that they never really climbed out of. I've read in different places that it's pretty tough to win in the NFL when you've got no running game. Funny how this NFC East coaching class has had two underachievers, one over-and then underachiever (New York) and one team out-class everyone else from start to finish. And that's the one that is coaches by the guy with the smallest resume. Go figure, I guess it's about players too huh? Anyway, as to the game in question, the reason I bring all of these other factors up is because these two teams can't be counted on to be good enough or bad enough in a given week to trust betting either for or against them. If I could predict a Giants 2 ½ point win, I might do just that so I didn't have to commit one way or the other. So I'll do this. When in doubt, go with the team that doesn't have Eli Manning as its quarterback. PICK: Cowboys

NEW YORK JETS (-3) at SAINT LOUIS
This is going to look very strange, especially since, like everyone else, I've been a big backer of the 'AFC is much better than the NFC' rule all season long. This is the prototype game in that regard. One of the good AFC teams going up against one of the overrated but still possibly playoff-bound NFC teams. The Rams, as we all know, are a different animal at home than they are on the road. And they are most certainly a different animal with Marc Bulger at the helm as opposed to anyone else. (Saying the name 'Chris Chandler' is almost a curse word at this point, so I refrain whenever possible.) As for the game in question, it's really a tough call. I think if this situation were played out ten times, the Jets might win seven or eight of those times. But I'm basing my pick on a gut decision (always a great idea, I know) this week. I think the Rams will come around and surprise some people, but not get into the playoffs. And the Jets, despite their loss, may just back their way in anyway. PICK: Rams (but I don't feel good about it)

SEATTLE (-5.5) vs. ATLANTA
Use the same logic as last week. The Falcons with Vick are legitimate NFC title contenders and the team most capable of being the team to once again knock off the Eagles in the title game. The Falcons without Vick aren't even a playoff team. PICK: Seahawks

BEST BETS

DETROIT (-3) at TENNESSEE
I've got to say, I'm very surprised at this line. Tennessee at home, GETTING points against the Lions? Don't get me wrong, Tennessee at home is not quite the lock it once was. But the Lions are just as shaky and unpredictable as they've ever been. I've got enough valid reasons to take Tennessee as it is (Harrington on the road, Volek's recent play, Bennett's recent play, etc). But the biggest single reason I see to take the Titans in this game? Because I'd just feel weird as hell taking the Lions and laying three on the road against the Titans. Call it bad reasoning if you must, but I can't trust any Lions team to do such a thing until I see them do it at least once. PICK: Titans

HOUSTON (-10.5) vs. CLEVELAND
Take out the decimal point, make it a 105-point favorite, and I STILL might consider taking the Texans. PICK: Texans

MINNESOTA (-4) at WASHINGTON
No Portis, no Smoot. Vikings desperate for a win. Let's put it this way: If Minnesota DOESN'T win this week, it will be a shock and embarrassment of monumental proportions. PICK: Vikings

OAKLAND (Off) vs. JACKSONVILLE
Take Jacksonville. I don't know what the line on the game is, nor do I know what it will be. But it won't be a lot, and if there's one thing these Jags have shown it's that they are a very resilient bunch. I don't see them going into Oakland with any trepidation (remember the game at Lambeau), nor do I see them going in and not playing as they are truly capable of playing. PICK: Jaguars, whatever the line ends up at

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Minnesota Vikings (I can't believe I just typed that)

By the numbers

Last week
Overall: 6-9-1
Best bets: 2-2
Lock of the week: 1-0

Year to date
Overall: 118-96-5 (55.1%)
Best bets: 39-21 (65.0%)
Lock of the week: 9-6 (60.0%)