Ever see those news reports on television or in a documentary about someone who was in a bad accident needing to re-learn everything they once knew? That's how I'm feeling right about now.

No, I'm not blaming a sub-par first week on the CRAAAAZY NFL or anything like that. That excuse is played. Rather, I'm blaming it on my own failure to remember history. Every year, it's the same story. We don't fail in our early bets because the NFL is crazy; we fail in our early bets because we fail to recognize that the NFL is crazy. After Week 1 performances, some teams catch our eye because of how AWESOME they looked, only to come crashing back down in Week 2 with a dud. (I'm talking to you, Washington.). The thing that stinks is, I learn this every year. It always happens, yet I always get trapped by it. I don't apply this sort of erratic behavior to fantasy teams or even to the Power Rankings.

About the new name…

I asked for readers' input for the title of this column.

A reader named Bo, who was stuck inside due to Hurricane Ivan, offered up nine different possible titles all containing the word 'prophet'. Hey Bo, thanks for the input. Now that the storm has passed, please get out of the house.

Shawn suggested calling it "Spreadin' the points". I mean it makes sense and all, but it sounds like a connotation for something entirely different than picking games.

Someone named Peter had the best suggestion, perhaps due in some part to a disagreement on picks. "You need to have a good name that reflects the backwards-over-your-head-basketball shot this really is. Something like Nostra
Dumbass....

Good stuff, but I'm not looking to acknowledge foolishness just yet. Let me first clinch a sub-.500 season before I start doing that at least.

So I settled on 'The Profit' for now. I had the right title last week, just the wrong spelling. And now, it's a pun! And seriously, who doesn't just LOVE puns?

…and we're off!

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds.html

ATLANTA (-10) vs. ARIZONA

Ten points isn't a small amount by any means, so maybe Vegas is catching on. But I'll tell you now; I'm taking the Vicks and the strangling defense thus far (how is Emmitt Smith going to do what Kevan Barlow and Marshall Faulk already failed to do?). Oh, and that Arizona run defense has looked pretty great huh? Sarcasm. Michael Vick should have a field day. PICK: Falcons

DENVER (-10) vs. SAN DIEGO

Denver at home is a mighty enticing proposition. And considering the state of the banged-up Charger offense, you might be tempted to take Denver and give the points. Add in the fact that Quentin Griffin once again needs to prove himself, and you have the makings of a big Denver victory. Well, I'm here to tell you…you're right. PICK: Broncos

INDIANAPOLIS (-6) vs. GREEN BAY

I'm going to steer clear of this one until I find anything out about Edgerrin James. Dominic Rhodes put up very good numbers for James when he went down for the year several seasons ago, but he doesn't bring the threat that Edge does. Don't think there's a big difference? Take a look at Peyton Manning's numbers with and without James, and try telling me there isn't a HUGE drop-off. Since the status of James is up in the air right now, I'll take Green Bay to keep it close in a return to form. What's weird about this? One of these two teams is going to be 1-2 after this game. PICK: Packers

KANSAS CITY (-8) vs. HOUSTON

Ah, a matchup of two even teams. Both with a wealth of talent offensively, but a lot of struggles on the defensive side of the ball. So what's the spread, 4? 5? EIGHT?!? Hey, I love Priest Holmes as much as the next guy but the man can't play defense, too. What's more, this week he may not be playing offense much, either. That, coupled with what you just know is going to be a monster game for the Carr/Davis/Johnson trio, and a banged-up Chiefs offense, and you have the makings for a bad game for KC. Yes, they are at home where they are great and all that and blah blah blah. I know. The Texans haven't exactly lit the world on fire with losses to two bad teams. But considering neither team has been all that impressive as of yet, I can't justify leaving 8 points on the board in the loser's direction. PICK: Texans

MIAMI (-1) vs. PITTSBURGH

Let's see, 19 carries for 22 yards from the feature back. The QB with the biggest upside is Sage Rosenfels, and he has upside mainly because he hasn't played yet. On the other side, we have the starting QB out for a good length of time. The backup, who was to be brought along slowly, is a rookie QB. A rookie QB is like eating leftover birthday cake at 4 a.m. - never a good idea (not that I did that). This quandary is the biggest crapshoot on the docket this weekend. In this instance, when in doubt I'll go with the home team that also has the better defense. PICK: Miami

NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) vs. CLEVELAND

Say what you wish about Kurt Warner, but you've got to credit the guy for being a fighter. His performance through the season's first two games has been pretty good actually. You get the sense that he'd still have something left, but that it's going to be pretty difficult to find with the team he's surrounded by. This weekend will prove to be the rule to the rule. The Browns couldn't have looked much worse last week against Dallas, and find themselves an underdog to one of the NFL's worst teams - just one week removed from beating the Ravens, one of the league's best. My, how things change quickly around here. So what is it about the Browns that will make the difference this week? It certainly won't be Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren, or Kellen Winslow, who will all miss this game and a few more. Answer? Jeff Garcia and Lee Suggs (finally!) against a Giants defense that struggles in nearly every aspect. The Giants as favorites? C'mon! PICK: Browns

OAKLAND (-3) at TAMPA BAY

Finally, the rematch is on!

Yawn.

Eventually, the Raiders lack of a running game will hurt them. After Sunday, this statement will read, "Finally, the Raiders lack of a running game hurt them." See the difference? PICK: Bucs

PHILADELPHIA (-4.5) at DETROIT

As I did last week with my selection of Arizona to cover against New England (mere moments after submitting my power rankings of New England #1 in the entire NFL and Arizona dead last), I am tempted to go with Detroit and the points this week. Philly is coming off a big win against a very good team. Often times, that is a precursor to a letdown. Detroit, meanwhile, is on a high after starting off the year 0-2 and erasing that terrible road losing streak mark. But after careful deliberation, I have come to the full realization that Philadelphia is going to blow Detroit out. PICK: Eagles

SEATTLE (-11) vs. SAN FRANCISCO

First off, let's get one thing straight. The Niners aren't awful. They are going to lose more than they win, that much is apparent. But they will compete in these games.

Now, Seattle hasn't exactly lit the world on fire its first two games. Granted, they aren't the same team on the road but with all this talk about Super Bowl and Pro Bowl appearances, you kind of expect them to dominate a little bit more.

I'll take the Niners, thank you, and bet against the Seattle hype machine until it shows signs of dominance. PICK: 49ers

SAINT LOUIS (-7) vs. NEW ORLEANS

Man, I wish Deuce was playing in this game! Not even for fantasy or for betting purposes so much. I just think that the line on this game would be significantly different if he were suiting up. As it stands, I still like the Saints getting 7. They put on an air show last week, and made enough plays to squeak out a win. Now they have a team that takes pleasure in shooting itself in its collective foot. A perfect foil! As you may have guessed, I'm not particularly high on the Rams at this early juncture. PICK: Saints

BEST BETS

WASHINGTON (-2) vs. DALLAS

Why are the Redskins favored over Dallas? Seriously. I know they're home, but is this a joke? Dallas, a playoff team a year ago and coming off a dominating win? The Redskins, who were heavily overestimated by fantasy football writers across the country after the big Week 1? Those Redskins? The ones who will be starting Patrick Pansy at quarterback? I don't know about you, but I've rarely been more confident in an assertion than I am in saying that the Cowboys will cover this game and win.

[Note: I don't actually think Patrick Ramsey is a pansy, just a terrible QB. But Patrick Terrible QB is a pretty crappy nickname. If you feel offended by this statement, direct all hate mail to Joe Bryant. He can be found at [email protected]. Thank you.] Oh yeah, PICK: Cowboys

TENNESSEE (-6) vs. JACKSONVILLE

Is everyone beginning to get it now? That Jacksonville's defense is amongst the best in football? Because it is, you know. And Tennessee's offense? Hmm, having some early-season issues. Short-yardage, big plays, injuries…it all adds up to the Titans not being at full strength. Of course, there is the matter of the Jaguars offense needing to put points on the board as well. Normally, an offense that looks this pathetic against a defense that is as historically good as the Titans have been would be cause for alarm. But something's missing in Tennessee. You know it, I know it, and the players know it. I can't put my finger on it, but something is missing. No, not Eddie George. Chris Brown is doing a great job there. It's more an overall team attitude, sort of like they're missing that feeling that you expect them to win. Hmm, come to think of it, maybe it IS Eddie George. PICK: Jaguars

MINNESOTA (-9) vs. CHICAGO

The question boils down to this: Do the Bears have two in a row in them? I say no. The Vikings are coming off a tough loss to Philly, a game which they could have won had it not been for red-zone miscues and a botched non-challenge. Minnesota could very well be the NFC's representative in the Super Bowl. Chicago? They likely achieved their season highlight last week in beating Green Bay. I expect Minnesota to come out and do everything they do and more in a sort of statement game. The statement is that unlike in years past, they won't just roll over at the sign of adversity. This is a matured team, and one that will do a lot of damage against an undermanned Bears outfit. Chicago lost two key cogs in the secondary. Can you say bust-out game, Mr. Moss? PICK: Vikings

BALTIMORE (-3) at CINCINNATI

Carson Palmer will make an excellent NFL quarterback someday, perhaps even this year. He led his team on a game-winning drive the other night against a Miami defense that played him tough. He lit up the Jets the previous week. But against the elite defenses of the league, Carson Palmer is going to look exactly as a second-year QB should. Miami did a great job against him for nearly the entire game last week, and it showed in some of his decisions and several passes he made. The Ravens D will be equally up to the task. Factor in that this won't be Lamar Gordon or even Curtis Martin running against them. No, this is Jamal Lewis. No offense to Martin (and yes, offense to Gordon), but Lewis is in a different class physically. Baltimore's D will likewise have no issues corralling the as-of-yet unimpressive Rudi Johnson and the young QB Palmer. PICK: Ravens

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Tempted to go with Dallas, but I can't make a team my lock of the week one week and then on the losing end of my lock the next week. I'm putting my money where my proverbial and literal mouth is and going with the Jags.

By the numbers

• Last week overall: 7-9
• Best bets: 2-2
• Lock of the week: 0-1
• Year to date: 7-9