LOOK AT MY LOCK OF THE WEEK. IT CAME THROUGH AGAIN!

Alright, now perhaps no one will notice that I was under .500 for a second straight week. I admit it, I’ve been slipping. There was yet another sub-.500 week awaiting me this past weekend. Some of the calls I’d make all over again, such as taking the Raiders. Others, with more information, I wouldn’t have taken (Titans). Speaking of the Titans, plenty of people called me on my assertion that McNair was DEFINITELY going to play. I don’t know what happened. I’m new to the footballguys staff so there’s no historical proof, but trust me – that was like Jeter not coming up big in a clutch spot. I’ve never EVER been wrong about McNair’s playing status for a particular game, so of course the first time I ever write on it in a public forum, he sits. My faith in humanity has been shaken. My confidence is wavering. I feel so unsure of myself, I’m almost ready to admit that picking games against the spread is more of a crapshoot than anything. Did I say that out loud?

No, I’m kidding. One miscue about Steve McNair’s playing status won’t cause me to re-think my ability to pick games. It’s consecutive 6-7-1 weeks that’ll do that, thank you very much. But I’m feeling good about this week. Anything less than 10 wins will not be satisfactory. It’s a good slate to pick, a lot of good feelings on most of them. Which, of course, dooms me to a week of 3-11.

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds.html

DALLAS (-3.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS

Interesting NFL celebrity sighting news. I was at a bar/lounge called City Bistro in Hoboken, New Jersey, last Friday night and heard that Eli Manning and Jesse Palmer were in attendance and were up on the roof. As some of you may have noticed from my Footballguys profile, I’m not the biggest of Eli Manning fans. So I made my way up there to see what I could see, and lo and behold there were Eli and Palmer across the way. Eventually, I made my way over just in time to see Manning pointing out his apartment across the street to a select group of hopeful future Mrs. Mannings. One of the girls suggested, "Eli you should come hang out with us after your games, you live so close." I chimed in with a Coughlin dig, saying, "Eli, if you go out with them, don’t be late…these girls are very strict." The girls got a kick out of it; Manning, not so much. I don’t know which was more surprising – that the girls got the joke, or Manning’s complete and utter lack of a sense of humor about it.

I went on to tell Eli that being a Chargers fan, I wasn’t really a big fan of his (Ok, my exact words were ‘I like the Chargers, so I don’t really like you too much’). But I still wished him luck in his career, and he seemed like a decent enough guy. I would have conducted an impromptu fantasy football-relevant interview, but I felt awkward enough being one of only two guys around Manning while he tried to get lai—I mean, while he got to know the fine people of northern Jersey. The funny part, as my friend Lou pointed out, was that if Eli Manning and Jesse Palmer just happened to be two guys on a rooftop bar somewhere, you would see a flock of girls around Palmer anyway. And Eli Manning would be just another dude at a bar. My proof? When two of the girls came back downstairs, I overheard the following exchange:

Girl #1: "Wow, Jesse Palmer is SOOOO hot!"

Girl #2: "I know, and Eli Manning seems pretty nice."

Why do I bring this up? I don’t know, any chance I have to knock Eli Manning (even for his looks), I’m likely gonna take it.

As for the game…New York always plays Dallas tough in big D, and they’re on a really good roll right now. But my biggest reason for why New York will cover? My girlfriend’s father (a huge Cowboys fan) is traveling to Dallas to see the game this weekend. It’s a time-honored tradition that whatever game he goes to, the team will invariably play like garbage and get blown out. Not scientific, but pretty reliable. PICK: Giants

DENVER (-5.5) vs. CAROLINA

So, what has Mike Shanahan got left now? Even when his teams struggled recently, everyone could always point to how his system produced 1,500-yard rushers like nobody’s business. But now that most people are catching on that it was Alex Gibbs’ blocking schemes much more than Shanahan’s "system", what has he got? Two Super Bowl titles 6 years ago, which are great – but also well beyond the 5-year grace period that a coach or team gets after it wins a championship. Amazingly, the best part of the Broncos offense this year has been Jake Plummer. Those of us who looked at his numbers from a year ago and came away impressed aren’t overly shocked that he’s having success. But the fact that he’s having success in a situation where the run game has been pretty stifled is very impressive. Now he gets to take on a Carolina front four that has been known to do a lot of damage to opposing quarterbacks. The Panthers MAY also see the return of Stephen Davis. Carolina will probably lose a tough road game, but they’ll hang in there enough to keep it within a few points. PICK: Panthers

INDIANAPOLIS (-9) vs. OAKLAND

Like I said last week, if the Colts are playing in a game, you take them and lay the points. Seriously. I know it sounds foolish because of the suspect defense. But they just won’t stop blowing people out. Until they fail to cover, never expect anyone to be able to cover against them. Just ride the wave. PICK Colts

JACKSONVILLE (-3) at SAN DIEGO

Even when the Chargers win, they lose. I told anyone who would listen last April that they HAD to draft Robert Gallery. Failing that, I wanted one of the big receivers that were coming out. Of course, the inept front office decided that two years behind a terrible offensive line was enough to determine that Drew Brees wasn’t the answer at quarterback, so they’d need to spend a THIRD pick in the past 6 years on a franchise QB. Now they’re in a situation where Brees finds himself as a solid NFL quarterback (which has been proven is all you need to be to win games), the best back in the league, a surprisingly effective defense at least early on, and no playmakers to stretch the field or offensive line studs to push this offense over the top. But then again, I’d expect nothing less from this group, who pushed Rodney Harrison out the door because he had lost it. I bring all of this up because it serves to illustrate how the Chargers are slowly but surely a much better team than they were last year. They can hang with the big boys. Jacksonville isn’t quite on the New England-Indianapolis-Philadelphia level yet, but they’re proven themselves to be a very good team. And yet despite that, (I can’t believe I’m saying this) the Chargers should be able to hang with them. If Fred Taylor is neutralized as effectively as Quentin Griffin and Chris Brown were, and Byron Leftwich is forced to beat the Chargers, well I don’t see it happening. The Jags may win the game outright, but I actually do see this is an extremely low-scoring affair. A 10-9 or 14-13 game wouldn’t surprise me at all. PICK: Chargers

MINNESOTA (-4) at HOUSTON

I read somewhere today that with all of the running back issues, the Vikings may have to throw the ball more than usual. And in a related story, Dunta Robinson just vomited. PICK: Vikings

NEW ENGLAND (-13) vs. MIAMI

This line is too big. It’s just too big. There’s no way. I keep telling myself that. I keep convincing myself that the Dolphins will rise to the occasion and preserve the old guard, that they’ll never let New England get away with taking another game for the record. But then I realize how bad Miami is, and it’s hard to not pick against them, regardless of the spread. Some are pointing to it as a chance for Miami to have one shining moment in an otherwise dreary season. As if New England won’t have something to do with that. The Pats are going to be up for this game, and you better believe Bill Belichik can out-coach Dave Wannstedt. What’s New England’s only potential weakness? The run defense? Well, that’s good because Miami’s current stable of backs only have slightly more yardage than Ricky Williams this year. PICK: Patriots (Wow, that’s a lot of points to lay for a team that doesn’t blow anyone out. I must really think Miami is awful huh?)

NEW YORK JETS (-7) vs. BUFFALO

This game is trickier than it appears. On the one hand, you’ve got the Jets who have played extremely well and won all season. On the other, a winless Bills team. But a closer look reveals that the Jets have gotten it done without really putting teams away. The Bills, meanwhile, have hung tough late into each of their losses but just can’t seem to get over the hump. When it’s a divisional battle, these are the sorts of things that always come into play. Again, I expect the Jets to come out with a victory, but the Bills will keep it close enough with defense and a good enough effort from Travis Henry. PICK: Bills

PITTSBURGH (-6) vs. CLEVELAND

Let me say right off the bat, I’m very surprised at what transpired last week between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. The Steelers are fast becoming that team that beats up on all of the lesser opponents en route to a good record, but you’d never trust to be able to hang with one of the big boys of the league. They may get to 10 wins or so, but then that’s it. Really, how far can you get with a rookie QB who’s as raw as Roethlisberger is? By the way, I think we all need to make some sort of agreement to always refer to him as Big Ben. Detroit Piston fans, my apologies. But it’s such a hassle to type out Roethlisberger. Sorry Joe, give me Justin Peelle any day of the week (though I have to admit, I did just mess up typing Peelle’s name…and I just did it again there. Ok, maybe you have a point.) Anyway, the Lee Suggs machine is up and running again in Cleveland. While he may not light it up this week, he does at least give Pittsburgh something to think about when trying to cover the many Cleveland wideouts. Last week they proved that they can eliminate one factor in a passing game and put pressure on a young QB. But Garcia is elusive, and can find a way to get it done. And the Browns don’t have that one true #1 guy to focus on. It’s more of a "whoever’s open gets the ball" mentality. (Novel concept, I know.) I think Garcia and co. will do enough to make it work with the points. PICK: Browns

SAN FRANCISCO (-1) vs. ARIZONA

First off, if you’re watching this game and it’s not for fantasy purposes, then you are obviously one of the player’s mothers. Even fans of these teams have to be feeling like what’s the point. Arizona showed a little life last week against an enigmatic Saints squad, while the Niners hung tough for two weeks before going in the proverbial tank the last two. In this "battle" of hapless franchises, normally you just take the homeboys and hope they can pull it off. But I like the way Dennis Green has his team playing. That’s not necessarily a knock on Dennis Erickson and his staff, but Green at least has Arizona fighting hard. I don’t see that from the Niners, who more or less seem to be going through the motions. PICK: Cardinals

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ATLANTA (-7) vs. DETROIT

Another week, another big-time performance by the Falcons defense. I’m starting to think there’s something to this Falcons resurgence. Now what could the connection be? Oh right, they were a really really good team with Michael Vick two years ago, then he missed almost all of last season and they stunk. And now Vick is back, and they’re 4-0. Hmm, what’s the connection I wonder? PICK: Falcons

BALTIMORE (-1) at WASHINGTON

When the line on a game is just one point, you obviously don’t pick based on the points. "Oh, I think the Ravens will win but only by a half a point. So you’re picking the winner here. Does anyone see the Redskins being able to hang with Baltimore? I mean, from what we’ve seen of the two teams thus far, does it seem likely? Washington’s run game has been much worse than expected, and while Baltimore had a rough one the other night against the Chiefs, they’re still one of the league’s top teams all the way around. I’m sorry, I just don’t see them losing back-to-back games against inferior opponents. PICK: Ravens

NEW ORLEANS (-3) vs. TAMPA BAY

Tampa Bay is a desperate team. New Orleans, for all of their talent, still looks like a team with no heart that shows up every once in awhile. I mean, this is an NFL team! The collective look of this team is akin to what Harrison Ford looks like in The Fugitive right after he’s sentenced to death. He’s like a zombie, just plodding along, not really paying attention, and then BAM! He suddenly jolts up and realizes what’s going on. The Saints are that. They just keep plodding along, seemingly unaware that they’ve got a lot of talent and should be winning a LOT of games, yet they don’t seem to ever be "into it". Then suddenly, Arizona comes in and BAM! Leg er down 'n smack em yak em. The Bucs’ desperation and insertion of Chris Simms into the lineup serve as the perfect foil for the problems of the Saints, and should serve to turn the tides heavily in Tampa’s favor. PICK: Bucs

SEATTLE (-7) vs. SAINT LOUIS
I think Martz did a very smart thing last week, swallowing his pride for once and pounding the ball. And yeah, the Rams went out and made their statement that they aren’t dead just yet. But this isn’t the 49ers, it’s the Seahawks. (Ha, imagine saying this in like 1994? Imagine the laughs I would have just received?) Like I said, this is the Seahawks…in their building…with their number one ranked defense. Still not convinced? The 49ers passing game of Tim Rattay, Curtis Conway, and Eric Johnson were able to move the ball on the Rams late last week. What on earth do Hasselbeck and the ‘Hawks have in store? PICK: Seattle

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Seahawks

By the numbers