The Profit - Mike Brown

You know what? It's futile. If I try writing anything football-related for an opening, my mind will be elsewhere. And if I try to be humorous, the week's events will render me stupid. Of course, some people are already calling me that.

From a reader named Eric: "You're a goof. Thanks to you, I lost this week's pool. (Which means I lost 50 bones.)"

Eric, I apologize. As anyone who watched Family Guy can attest, it's going to be tough going on without fifty bones. Be careful on escalators.

Anyway, don't take the previous statements as evidence that I'm off my game. Despite Eric's charges, I still had a fine week last week. And now that there is no Yankee news to clutter my mind, there's nothing stopping me from a 14-0 week. Except, of course, I'm now preoccupied with the new Ocean's Twelve trailer that I just saw for the first time today. And in the process of writing this, I was informed that Family Guy will actually be returning to FOX in 2005. WOO-HOO!

On to the picks…

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds.html

BALTIMORE (-6) vs. BUFFALO
So WITH Jamal Lewis in the lineup, the Ravens went 3-2. Now he's gone. The Bills, meanwhile, are one of the best 1-win teams we've seen in a long time. I know that's sort of a backhanded compliment, but it's true. They've been hanging in there every game, and this week get a Lewis-less Ravens team. I'm not going to go predicting Bledsoe and the boys will light it up, but I have an equally tough time seeing Kyle Boller and Chester Taylor doing much against the Bills' underrated defense. PICK: Bills

INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
What did I tell you a few weeks back? Take Indianapolis regardless of the spread. See what's happening now? They're favored by almost DOUBLE DIGITS against a 4-2 Jaguars team that is clicking on all cylinders. The oddsmakers are probably getting ZERO action from the other side, so now the line is being opened up to great big amounts. Trying to sucker people in by making the line exorbitant. Don't fall into it. The Colts are still that good. The offense can get up so quickly that it won't matter that their defense is substandard (at least until they play New England, that is). The Colts are absolutely on one of 'those' rolls, and don't bet against them until they give you a reason not to. PICK: Colts

MINNESOTA (-7) vs. TENNESSEE
I've been down on Tennessee right from the outset, and I've been equally high on the Vikings. So it might surprise you that I see this week as a potential tough one for the Vikes. Steve McNair isn't going to be this bad all season long, and with the run game they have and the defense Minnesota has, they can put points on the board. Furthermore, I know Minnesota still did a lot with Moss out of the game last week. But that was mid-game, and the Saints had no chance to gameplan for an attack that didn't feature Moss. The Titans at least have the knowledge that he is likely not playing, or will be at less than 100%. This offense, you'll see, is not the same without Moss. Culpepper's statements about 'driving the bus' are very accurate. And Randy Moss is the gas pedal that makes it go. Burleson, Robinson, Campbell, Wiggins, and Moore all enjoy productive games but the main reason is because so much attention is focused on Moss. With him out of the picture, those guys will not be 15 yards open with such frequency, because none of them are as talented as Moss makes them seem. PICK: Titans

NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
Much as it pains me to say it, the New England area is going to get the New Yorkers once again this week. The Jets are tough, but the one thing they are sorely lacking in is the one thing that makes the Patriots as good as they are - the killer instinct. The Pats get on a team, and they don't let up. They go back-and-forth with a team, they find a way to get it done. They trail? Wait a minute, no that was wrong…they don't trail. Anyway, the Jets are going to have to get it done defensively. With a young, athletic group, the chances are better than they've been in recent years. But the addition of Corey Dillon cannot be overstated, as I've said before. They have a two-dimensional attack now, and can keep even a good defense like New York's off-balance for much of the game. I know the line is fairly big, considering it's a matchup of undefeated teams. But Vegas is seeing the same things I'm seeing. The Jets haven't beaten anyone great yet, and have struggled to get by some of the 'lesser' teams. This week is their big test to date, one that I don't see them passing. PICK: Patriots

NEW YORK GIANTS (-6.5) vs. DETROIT
As I was writing, I skipped over this game and said I'd come back to it later when I got a feeling on it one way or the other.

Still waiting…

Ok, well deadline's coming up so here goes. Detroit isn't that good. PICK: Giants

OAKLAND (-3) vs. NEW ORLEANS
The battle of the two most difficult teams in the league to possibly figure out. If you're wagering on this game, I'd surmise you're the kind of fellow who enjoys a nice game of "Jump out of the moving car", or has at least made a cameo on "Jackass". Dangerous living, you know. Why is it so dangerous? Because either of these teams could turn into the 1999 Rams at any moment and you'll never see it coming. Likewise, they could also turn into the 2003 Giants. Or they could turn into each other. Or neither. You just don't ever know what you're going to get. This is like what would happen if you gave uppers to Regis Philbin. The possibilities would be limitless. With such an unpredictable outcome hinging on this, I'll once again go to the Saints' talent well and go with the road dogs. I've said it before, and I'll say it again. They'll stick around at the party just long enough to have a good time, but they'll inevitably skip out well before it's all over. As far as this season goes, it's only 10:00 so they've got plenty of weeks left to tease us all. PICK: Saints

PHILADELPHIA (-7) at CLEVELAND
Home and road doesn't seem to matter much with this Philly club, does it? It's more about just going out and beating the absolute crap out of whomever they play. Now they get a Browns team that is hurting in the one area they were supposed to be strong (wide receiver). Plus, is there any doubt that Terrell Owens will continue to get his way? This season was absolutely made for him. The script is playing out exactly as he'd hope, I would imagine. Based on how good things are going for him, the most likely scenario would have it unfold something like this:

The Browns will be down 6 in the third quarter when Garcia will attempt a deep ball to Dennis Northcutt. Due to his lack of arm strength (as Owens has reminded us of time and time again), the ball will be intercepted. On the ensuing possession, McNabb will launch a ball 86 yards in the air to Owens, who will catch the pass with one hand behind his back and all of the Browns' defensive backs trailing him, throwing bottles of Pepto-Bismol at his legs in an attempt to slow him down. The Eagles will win, Owens will talk a whole lot more, Garcia will claim he's going to take the high road but will eventually be suckered in. Garcia will bring his girlfriend, former Playmate of the Year Carmella DeCesare, up onto the postgame podium to prove to Owens he's most certainly not gay, but after one his girlfriend takes one look at T.O., Garcia will be a single man within minutes. Or something along those lines, at least. PICK: Eagles

By the way, take a look at this picture again and really allow it to settle in that this girl is dating Jeff Garcia. Jeff Garcia, ok? Ok, just wanted to make sure it sunk in there. (And yes, it was much easier searching for pictures of her than pics of Tony Siragusa.)

SEATTLE (-7) at ARIZONA
This is absolutely a statement game for Seattle. They feel as if they should have beaten the Pats last week, and the game they played suggests that they definitely had the ability to. But, as usual, New England found a way to do it in the end. Now they square off against a pitiful Arizona team, looking to come out swinging. The question is not IF Seattle wins, or even how many they win by. It's how big of an absolute whipping they'll put on the Cards this weekend. I know, Seattle isn't as good a road team as they are at home. But they're coming off consecutive losses, and their #1-ranked defense has been humbled. Watch them put it all together this weekend. PICK: Seahawks

ST. LOUIS (-6.5) at MIAMI
Oh, those crazy unpredictable Rams. Whenever you see that a 4-2 team is just a 6.5 point favorite against a winless bunch of maybe the worst team the NFL has seen in years, you know there's a common perception of NO CONFIDENCE in the 4-2 team. The Rams always have that ability to go out and dominate an opponent, but just as surely, their 'fast and furious' mentality can bite them at times. Right about now, you're expecting me to go on about how Miami can stay in the game and the Rams will make enough mistakes to keep them hanging around. Well, I'd like to say that - I really would - but I just don't see any way Miami hangs around in this one. PICK: Rams

TAMPA BAY (-7) at CHICAGO
This would be a really good matchup, if only the teams weren't so completely hideous. The Bucs gave the Rams a good scare the other night, while the Bears put fear into the, um…Redskins. Hmm. Tampa is clearly NOT as bad as their record indicates, while the Bears (as long as Jonathan Quinn, medicine woman is at the helm) may be even WORSE than their record indicates. PICK: Bucs

BEST BETS

CAROLINA (-3) vs. SAN DIEGO
This is the perfect time of year for gambling. We've gotten an early read on who the better teams are in the league, and at this point it's pretty well obvious if a team has it or not. Of course, there will be the occasional stinker or shocking performance here and there…but for the most part, we can say with a lot of confidence in Week 7 that the Panthers are not very good. Case in point, the defending Super Bowl participants are favored by just three at home to San Diego. Why is Carolina even favored in this game? Because people let their memories to get in the way of the logic that is laid out before them. The memory of Carolina in the Super Bowl should be just that - a memory. Each week in the NFL is a different story, so clearly each YEAR is also. Take advantage of the situation. Take advantage of people still giving Carolina the benefit of the doubt just because they went to the Super Bowl last year. What do I say? I say take the points and go with the Chargers. They are actually a better team and will probably win this game outright. PICK: Chargers

GREEN BAY (-3.5) vs. DALLAS
Two of the more disappointing teams in the league lock up for this one. The Cowboys trade of Antonio Bryant was curious at best. Quincy Morgan? I mean, does he really help? My ego isn't big enough to criticize Bill Parcells' decisions, but until I see results it will seemingly make little sense to me. As for Green Bay, they went out and did what they needed to do. But at the same time, if someone had told a Green Bay fan prior to the season that the Week 6 win over Detroit was going to be a huge win and a statement game, I have a feeling they'd have laughed in your face. As it stands, neither of these teams really looks like it's going places. But I have to give the edge to the Pack, if only because they can at least build on some semblance of the momentum they got last week. Oh, and their running back isn't Eddie George. PICK: Packers

DENVER (-6) at CINCINNATI
Cincinnati had, get this, no answers for the BROWNS! The BROWNS! Oh my goodness. THE BROWNS! The Bengals were outplayed in just about every facet of the game. Now they've got a quarterback who has to be feeling a little bit more pressure than usual.

[As an aside, can you imagine telling Seahawks fans a few years back that someday people would be absolutely CLAMORING for Jon Kitna's return to the lineup? How quickly things change in the NFL.]

As I was saying, the Bengals are an absolute mess. Marvin Lewis has restored a sense of calm and a sense of hope for the future, but clearly the future is not now. Yes, this team is 1-4 just like last year's edition was. But save for beating the Dolphins on a late field goal, they haven't shown much of anything. Denver, meanwhile, keeps churning out running backs and in turn, wins. There is no way in my mind that the Bengals can hold both the Denver passing game and running game in check simultaneously while ALSO rediscovering its passing game without Peter Warrick. I just don't see it. PICK: Broncos

KANSAS CITY (-4) vs. ATLANTA
This might be the dumbest line of the week. The Chiefs are STILL somehow earning respect based on what they did the first 3 months of last season. PICK: Falcons

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Broncos

By the numbers

Last week
Overall: 9-5
Best bets: 4-0
Lock of the week: 1-0
Year to date
Overall: 37-32-2 (53.6%)
Best bets: 13-7 (65%)
Lock of the week: 3-2 (60%)