What a week it's been. Wait a minute, no it hasn't! It's been terrible. Let's revisit…

1. Yankees blow a 3-0 lead to the Red Sox, setting this downward spiral in motion.
2. In last week's Profit column, the photos I had included never made it to Dodds. Thus, when I asked everyone to look at the accompanying photo of Jeff Garcia's girlfriend, Carmella DeCesare, they were left looking at nothing. And yes, I heard about it.
3. Red Sox open World Series with a win.
4. My main fantasy team goes in the tank, courtesy of starting Randy Moss over Eric Moulds.
5. My picks for the week go belly-up.
6. I ordered cheeseburgers from the Nevada Diner in Bloomfield, NJ, as I have done every Sunday night this season. They are truly the best cheeseburgers I've ever had, but of course - wouldn't you know it? This week they sucked.
7. The Red Sox win Game 2.
8. My 'lock of the week', Denver (also featuring fantasy starters Jake Plummer and Reuben Droughns) lays an egg on Monday Night Football, securing a crappy fantasy AND profit week for me at 4-10. Oh, and my lock of the week is now 3-3, matching the total amount of times I misfired on my lock for all of 2003.
9. The Red Sox win the World Series.
10. I just banged my wrist on the computer table while typing this out.

Other than all that stuff, it's been a fantastic week.

This past week just threw me for a loop, as they say. There are going to be a couple of weeks like this every now and then, and often times I find myself struggling right around this time of year with picks. I think it has something to do with thinking you've finally figured out the season. And then, all of a sudden, you've got the Dolphins beating the Rams, Bengals beating the Broncos, Cardinals beating the Seahawks, Kansas City edging the Falcons by a cool 56, Jags taking down Indy…I mean, these weren't just point spreads being covered - these were outright wins! If Cleveland had managed to hold on and beat the Eagles, that would have just about done it. This would have officially been proclaimed "weirdest sports week of my life". I can't believe Terrell Owens, of all people, helped restore a sense of normalcy.

What will we get this week? Hopefully, better cheeseburgers.

On to the picks…

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds.html

BUFFALO (-3) vs. ARIZONA
I've been saying for awhile now that neither of these teams is as bad as their record indicates. Yes, this is despite having Arizona ranked as the #31 team in my Power Rankings column for some time. But it just seems like a different atmosphere in Arizona, as evidenced by last week's win over Seattle. You'd never have seen an Arizona team beat and hang with quality teams on a consistent basis in the past.

Buffalo, meanwhile, has hung around for awhile in their own right. Despite their only win coming against the lowly Dolphins, they've managed to at least be in most of the games that they eventually went on to lose. Last week was the exception, as they basically lost to the Baltimore defense. Now comes word that they're starting both McGahee and Henry in the backfield together. Travis Henry is quickly becoming the Ashlee Simpson to Willis McGahee's Jessica. (For those out of the pop loop, that's not a good thing for Henry.) Anyway, things are looking up for Arizona right now and down for Buffalo. So, since last week went completely topsy-turvy on me (I just solidified my dork status by using the term 'topsy-turvy'), I'll go against the grain and pick the team that is down against the team that is up. Hey, it's not a perfect system of picking but it has seemed to work. And to quote Balki of Perfect Strangers fame, in regard to football betting, "I'd rather have a cute little system than an empty little pocket." PICK: Bills

CHICAGO (-1.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
As bad as the Bears are (and they're bad), the 49ers are even worse!

The funny part is, when I originally typed this out, I had the same sentence but the team names were switched. PICK: Bears

DALLAS (-3) vs. DETROIT
I'm sure I'll hear all about how I give Detroit no credit, and this and that, and how I overrate Dallas, etc. But Detroit winning four on the road before we're into October? No, I don't think so. And Dallas, for all of its faults, still has some guys who can do some things. And if 'guys who can do some things' ain't enough to convince you, well then I just don't know what will. PICK: Cowboys

DENVER (-6.5) vs. ATLANTA
Two teams coming off embarrassing performances and looking to get back on track. Two of the better running teams in the league, versus two of the better run defenses in the league (despite what we saw last week). I have a feeling this is going to be a fun game to watch, and should come down to something happening late to determine the outcome. While I believe Denver likely holds on for the win, I like the Falcons to keep it close enough in a slugfest. PICK: Falcons

MINNESOTA (-7) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
Think Minnesota doesn't remember what happened last year? There they were, cruising right along, when they ran into a brick wall named the Giants. That's right, at one point last year, the Giants were impressive. The Vikings have learned from their mistakes and are out for revenge against what was, to them, the turning point in their season. I'm normally not a big fan of the revenge factor, as I believe ability and talent go a lot further than anger in the NFL. But you can't discount the Vikings' desire to come up with a huge statement against New York, one of the better teams in the league. If they can hang up 50 points, they'll try. Expect everything in the playbook to make an appearance Sunday as Minnesota tries their darndest to absolutely destroy New York. PICK: Vikings

NEW ENGLAND (-3) at PITTSBURGH
One thing I've noticed about the Patriots. They're the only dominant team I can remember who you would never feel confident placing a bet on. It's not that they don't win enough obviously, nor is it that they never cover, because they do that on fair occasion. No, the bigger reason is that they have the audacity to not try and blow everyone out. Rather than try and blow everyone out, they - get this - just try to win no matter what! What the heck is that about?!? Meanwhile, the still-underrated Steelers get their wish. Jerome Bettis said he didn't want the Patriots to lose last week, because he wanted to be the team to end the streak. Well, it goes without saying to be careful what you wish for. But this could be different. The Steelers actually match up extremely well with the Patriots, and back in his Cincinnati days, Corey Dillon never did much against the Dick LeBeau-coached defenses of the Steelers. I really hate to predict the end of the streak, because I've already suggested on two occasions that it could end (though I never formally came out and said I thought it would). But hey, that's what limbs are for - for going out on. Here's mine for the week. The Steelers will end the streak Sunday. Hey, if I'm going to have a better week than last week, it needs to be something bold that gets it done. PICK: Steelers

SAN DIEGO (-6) vs. OAKLAND
I can't believe my eyes are seeing that the Chargers are 6-point favorites against the hated Raiders. Do you know what this is like? Well, I suppose it's something like watching the Red Sox come back and beat the Yankees, only about 87 million times less important. But still, it's exciting. I try to temper enthusiasm because we've seen the Chargers get out to hot starts before. But there was no Tomlinson back then. And to think, he hasn't even really gotten untracked yet. And they're playing good defense for the most part. And the Raiders, Kerry Collins in particular, are handling the football as if it's William Perry's jockstrap. The Chargers, and I can't believe I'm saying this, can capitalize on those mistakes and should have (wow) a relatively easy time handling the Raiders. PICK: Chargers

SEATTLE (-8) vs. CAROLINA
So tell us, Seattle. Are you even ANY good? Not only are they clearly not a Super Bowl contender, but are they even a playoff contender at this point? I think it's a fair question to ask. We've got Matt Hasselbeck playing like he's never picked up a ball before, the defense struggling to hold Emmitt Smith - EMMITT SMITH - in check, and Jerry Rice dropping balls both in practice and in games. Meanwhile, Koren Robinson will likely be taking a vacation soon, leaving the team in bigger trouble. As good as Rice as (and he's not very good anymore, that was sarcasm), who will take the pressure off of Darrell Jackson? This Seattle team is in some trouble. Now on the other side of the ledger…

We've got the Panthers, who may be the only NFL team in bigger trouble than the Seahawks. I chuckled when preseason prognosticators had the Panthers winning the division. It's a very simple formula, people. If you lose the Super Bowl, the odds of having even a remotely decent season are nearly nothing. It's served us very well the past few years, yet people still choose to ignore it. Now they're headed down an even more slippery slope than Seattle, as we see Steve Smith and DeShaun Foster on IR, Jake Delhomme showing just why most NFL teams took a pass on signing him, defensive starters dropping every other day for various ailments, and Stephen Davis taking much longer than expected to return to full-time duty. It's a battle of underachievers, who are struggling for various reasons. I have no idea which way to call this game, so I'll just take the home team that also happens to have more talent. The way I see it, Seattle is at least CAPABLE of winning a game over the Panthers by 8. I'm not sure the Panthers are even capable of SCORING 8. PICK: Seahawks

TENNESSEE (-3) vs. CINCINNATI
Funny how quickly things change in the span of a week. Or, in this case, four days. On Saturday, the Bengals were one loss away from 1-5 and a quick trip to the basement of the AFC North. Following a win against Denver, they're now 2-4 and have fans and writers openly discussing the playoff possibilities. The Titans, meanwhile, are in a hole. Not a rut, or simply a crater. This is a gaping, Shawn Kemp-in-Cleveland-sized hole. And they now must rely on Billy Volek to lead them out of it. Riiiight. Call me crazy, but the one thing this Bengals team will always have going for it as long as Marvin Lewis is coaching them is the belief that they are always 'in it'. The Titans are banged-up at various key spots and aren't even close to what they once were at home. The Bengals have somehow pulled off the incredible accomplishment of turning their season around with 1 win. These are two teams with similar records that are headed in completely opposite directions, and this week will provide evidence of that. PICK: Bengals

NEW YORK JETS (-6.5) vs. MIAMI
It's not that I see a letdown in Miami's future. I just see them continuing to play horrible, horrible football. The way the NFL is set up, every team is going to have a week like they did last week, no matter how bad you are. But more often than not, the team with more talent is going to come out on top every time. The Jets' offense might not be what people want to see from them, but I assure you that only the strong of stomach can even bear to witness what the Dolphins try to call an offense. PICK: Jets

BEST BETS

GREEN BAY (-2) at WASHINGTON
So, they aren't done yet, those Packers. Far from it, in fact. And with this seemingly easy win on the slate, the Packers will find themselves right back in contention. Of course, Brett Favre's day could go either way and no one would really be surprised. I mean, we all expect him to go out and be superhuman and put up a monster day because he's dealing with his wife's illness. But hey, and this isn't meant to be lighthearted, but when your wife's breasts are a topic of national conversation, that's got to be a little disconcerting, no? I wouldn't be shocked to see him go either way, with a phenomenal game or a stinker. The thing is, I think this Redskins team is so bad that I don't believe it'll matter much. PICK: Packers

HOUSTON (-1) vs. JACKSONVILLE
Seriously, what do the Jaguars have to do to get some respect? They'll be 10-5 before they're favored to win a road game this year. PICK: Jaguars

INDIANAPOLIS (-1) at KANSAS CITY
Seeing this line at just one point tells me two things. First thing is, the Jaguars aren't getting enough credit. If people saw them as truly a good team (which they are), then they'd realize that the Colts losing to them is not so bad. Thus, they wouldn't feel compelled to lower this line all the way to one. And the second thing it tells me is that Kansas City is getting too much respect after one (albeit one dominant) game. The Chiefs showed they can put points on the board. And yes, the defense has played much better. Now comes a true test. The Colts are just as good offensively as Kansas City but nowhere near as bad defensively. I know they haven't exactly dominated on the other side of the ball yet, but they haven't been torched quit as much as the Chiefs. This is one of those games where everyone's tempted to take the over, so the game ends up being something like 20-17. But either way, with a 1-point spread, you're not picking with points; you're picking a winner regardless. PICK: Colts

PHILADELPHIA (-7.5) vs. BALTIMORE
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. If the Eagles have a game on Sunday, you take the Eagles and lay the points. Last week didn't go so well, granted. But to think this Eagles defense will again give up the kind of yardage they gave up last week is foolhardy. I know the Ravens have the whole 'get Owens' thing going for them, but they still need to score points. And without Jamal Lewis, Todd Heap, and Jonathan Ogden (not just their three best players on offense, but maybe the three best offensive players in team HISTORY), I don't see them getting it done. PICK: Eagles

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Jaguars

By the numbers

• Last week
  Overall: 4-10
  Best bets: 2-2
  Lock of the week: 0-1
• Year to date
  Overall: 41-42-2 (49.4%)
  Best bets: 15-9 (62.5%)
  Lock of the week: 3-3 (50%)