The cheeseburgers were MUCH better.

Last week, one of my (numerous) complaints was the quality of cheeseburgers I got from my favorite diner. It served as a capper to a crapper of a week. (Get it? Capper? Crapper? It's a hom…on…ym, ok nevermind.) Anyway, this week saw a turnaround of monumental proportions. First, as I said, the burgers were excellent. Top-notch. Second, an 8-6 week restored some semblance of sanity to my picking. Of course, that was somewhat offset by the 1-3 Best Bet record as well as my Lock of the Week failing again.

[On a side note, Lock Of the Week will, from here on out, be named "Even though I was 13-4 on my lock of the week last season, and 12-5 the year before, for some reason this year I stink and can do nothing right so this is going to be completely wrong pick of the week". I know - it's not catchy. But we strive for accuracy here.]

On to the picks…

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds.html

CAROLINA (-7) vs. OAKLAND
I'd like to call this the "Hilton sisters battle". That's right, the Panthers and Raiders serve as the perfect representations of everyone's favorite flakes.

Two participants who everyone was gaga for at one time recently, but the more we see of them, the more we realize how incredibly overrated they are. No substance at all, nothing about them that really is all that great. And now their time is, hopefully, passed.

Ok, so I'm moreso wishing that of the sisters. After all, what would the NFL be for me, a Chargers fan, if I didn't have the Raiders to hate? This Raider team may be, incredibly, a bigger embarrassment than last year's version. Panthers struggles or not, there is not one area of the Raiders that is even remotely close to being as effective as anyone on the Panthers. Wait, except kicker. But then again, there's at least an 85% chance that Sebastian Janikowski will either be arrested, get high, be arrested while getting high, or deported between now and Sunday. PICK: Panthers

DALLAS (-1) at CINCINNATI
Oh, to be able to hedge a bet. For the foreseeable future, I'd advise everyone to find out about the status of Peter Warrick prior to betting on any Bengal games. It's that simple. Some have told me I'm making too big a deal of Warrick's presence. I scoff at that notion. This guy makes the offense work. He isn't the QB or the #1 receivers, but his presence and what he does for the team directly impacts each and every other guy on the offense. I'll explain:

His impact in the passing game is obviously huge. Not only in his own catches, but in the attention he deflects off of Chad Johnson. Think that isn't huge? Take a look at some game tape of Johnson's best games this year and last. Then take a look at some of his worst games. You'll see a correlation. Trust me.

When the passing game is working, teams can't stack the line to stop Rudi Johnson. And, with fewer people around the line, that means less pressure on the young QB, Carson Palmer.

Since the defense leaves a lot to be desired, it's the offense that makes this team go. They live and die with what their offensive unit can produce. Warrick's in, the offense works and the team competes. Warrick's out (or slowed), the offense is a mess and they have no shot. Simple formula, really.

Now comes news that Warrick has a 'slight' leg fracture. Well, call me crazy but I wouldn't call any leg fracture 'slight'. This team needs him healthy, and fast. PICK: Cowboys

DENVER (-6) vs. HOUSTON
I've got this nasty little habit of not giving Houston enough credit and Denver too much, it seems. I've had the Broncos in the top 10 of my Power Rankings basically all year, and Houston just cracked the top half recently, despite playing just as well. So now that I've set you up for the "Houston will cover this week" statement, I'll of course continue to overrate Denver and underrate Houston. Hey, it's my way. I'm stubborn. PICK: Broncos

MIAMI (-3) vs. ARIZONA
This may sound strange, but I actually cannot wait for this game. I'm going to make some popcorn, sit myself in front of the T.V., and proceed to choke myself to death with the unpopped kernels. David Oleyar (Footballguys game analyst for this game Sunday), my heart goes out to you brother. Still, since I MUST make a pick, I have to go with Arizona. I mean, I was at the Jets/Dolphins game on Monday night. And let me tell you, I've never witnessed a more pathetic performance from a sports team in my life. And now Junior Seau is done for the year, so yeah um, uh…that won't help any. PICK: Cardinals

NEW ENGLAND (-2.5) at ST. LOUIS
This might be the most difficult game to call this week. A lot is obviously due to the very unpredictable nature of the Rams, but one also has to consider how much the Ty Law injury hurts the Patriots' secondary. They've already had to deal with numerous injuries on the offensive side of the ball, and it's never a good sign to see your top cover guy go down just before a trip to the Dome. Call me crazy (and many have), but I'm going to go with the gigantically risky Rams this week. I just have a feeling that the Patriots, as deep as they are, are finally seeing some of the effects of injuries catching up to them. It's not so much the backups who are replacing starters; it's moreso the guys replacing the backups. Bill Belichik likes to make use of his entire roster, and some of the players currently being worked into rotations just aren't getting it done. Case in point: I know he likes to throw, but 5 rushing attempts against the Steelers last week? Bad sign. PICK: Rams

NEW YORK GIANTS (-9) vs. CHICAGO
Nine points is a little much for a team like the Giants. Look at how they went out and laid an egg against the Lions two weeks ago. They just can't be relied upon to blow teams out, last week notwithstanding. Their record is more indicative of an overall team effort of goodness, but there isn't much explosiveness outside of Tiki Barber. The deep passing game has come around in recent weeks, and the defense has obviously played outstanding football. But I just wouldn't feel right laying nine points with this team, that's all. They haven't statistically dominated in most of their games, and aren't thought of as a team that explodes for scores at will. The Bears will be able to keep it to less than 10, though still likely fall short. PICK: Bears

NEW YORK JETS (-3) at BUFFALO
The Jets offense finally woke up from their season-long slumber last week, just in time to embarrass the Dolphins. Of course, one has to keep in mind that it WAS the Dolphins, after all. Still, the Miami defense wasn't supposed to be such a weak link that it could give up tons of offense to New York, so some credit at least must go the Jets way.

Buffalo, likewise, deserves credit for their win last week, even if it was against what turned out to be a terribly inferior opponent. The addition of Willis McGahee to the lineup has turned out to be a shockingly effective move, and could mean the beginning of a turnaround is in order.

New York has managed to just find a way to win all season. When the Bills visited several weeks ago, it took a last-minute drive by Chad Pennington and co. to pull out the victory. It was then that most people saw the Bills for what they were: a team that wasn't as bad as its record indicated, but without that sparkplug that could lead them to wins late. And, in today's NFL, most games are won and lost late in the contest. But in McGahee, the Bills may have found that spark. He proved last week that he's ready to handle the full workload, and is a component that Buffalo lacked in their last meeting with New York. Could it be the difference the Bills need? Well, that and being home certainly can't hurt. PICK: Bills

PHILADELPHIA (-1) at PITTSBURGH
I'm tempted to go with Pittsburgh, if only for the lack of 'dogs I'm going with this week. I hate looking up and seeing I'm taking a bunch of favorites; it's just disconcerting. But I can't go against the undefeated Eagles, even in Steel Town. The Steelers don't match up quite as well with Philly as they did with New England, though it should be noted that two of the Steelers' biggest strengths (running the ball, stopping the run) are two of Philadelphia's biggest weaknesses. That could lead to a decisive victory in Pittsburgh's favor. But I can't discount McNabb-to-Owens, nor can I discount the Eagles' blitz schemes. I know, I know, Roethlisberger can handle that better than any young QB in a long time, blah, blah, blah. I don't doubt that. He looks incredibly poised, and supremely talented. But even Tom Brady had a 4-interception game in his first Super Bowl season. The most poised quarterbacks in the league even look bad sometimes. If anyone is going to do that to Big Ben, it'll be the Eagles, and it'll happen this weekend…notice I said "if". How's that for covering all of my bases? PICK: Eagles

SAN DIEGO (-6) vs. NEW ORLEANS
Let's see what the Chargers have got. In past years, this was precisely the type of team they'd lose to. They'd be in it until the very bitter end, when the opposing team's linebacker, a former Charger, would cause a fumble, and recover it. And then the opposing kicker, who also used to play in San Diego, would win it on a last-second field goal.

Ok, so that never actually happened specifically like that. But it wouldn't have shocked anyone to see it happen. As it is, the Chargers have been on an absolute roll while the Saints have been, well, the Saints. One week they can challenge the '72 Dolphins, the next they're worse than the current edition of Miami. (How sad is that, Dolphin fans, that your team can now be used in conjunction with the very best as well as by far the current worst? Just asking.)

This week will be very telling to see how far the Chargers have come. The Saints are in trouble, but can never be counted out. The rule with the Saints, as I told you a few weeks back, is to go against whatever your gut tells you. Call it the Costanza principle. Whatever your first reaction is with them, do the complete opposite. It would appear that going up against a playoff contender, with a somewhat hobbled Deuce McAllister would spell doom. So go with them. While they may still lose the game, take them with the 6. PICK: Saints

SEATTLE (-7) at SAN FRANCISCO
Far be it from me to give the 49ers any credit, but this week the Seahawks have problems of their own. They've suffered a nasty rash of injuries during the season's first half, and this week it was the wide receivers' turn. Even with a HEALTHY bunch, though, Seattle was less-than-impressive. They've managed to turn around their road woes of a year ago for the most part, but this week would scare me. They haven't played phenomenally well, they are still going on the road, San Francisco is a team that just hit rock bottom (nowhere to go but up), and Tim Rattay will be back. Strangely enough, he's a huge upgrade and they sorely need him in there to compete. It's just a different team when he's under center, though I hope I'm not giving him TOO much credit. The Niners will hang tough, even if they lose, and keep this at less than a touchdown differential. PICK: 49ers

BEST BETS

BALTIMORE (-6) vs. CLEVELAND
So, Jamal Lewis has had four weeks since his last game so he's plenty rested. He was embarrassed in Week 1 by this very Browns team and held to very little production. His team needs a win in a big way to maintain a legitimate shot at getting into the playoffs. Oh, and he's really REALLY good, too. Cleveland bores me. PICK: Ravens

DETROIT (-3.5) vs. WASHINGTON
You know the feeling when you've got a secret but you've already sworn to tell no one? I mean, of course there are some people who don't adhere to such things, but I do. And if I have a secret that isn't supposed to get out, then it won't get out. Well, this is the complete opposite of having a secret. I have knowledge of something that I want to share with the world, yet no one wants to hear it. Ready? Here goes…

THE WASHINGTON REDSKINS STINK!!!

I've had this knowledge for quite some time now. Basically, ever since Week 3. I've tried telling anyone who'll listen, but somehow the lines on their games remain small. Last week, they were 2-point 'dogs to the Packers. Now, they're just 3.5 to the Lions. Don't get me wrong - I'm not mistaking the Lions for the Patriots anytime soon, but they are much better than 3.5 point favorites at home against

THE WASHINGTON REDSKINS, WHO STINK!!!

PICK: Lions

INDIANAPOLIS (-6) vs. MINNESOTA
There is no reason why the Colts shouldn't cover this. They're at home, they're coming off an embarrassing defensive performance, the Vikings strong point (offense) is just not the same without Randy Moss, etc, etc. By the way, Vikings. There's this thing called learning from your mistakes. What the heck happened last week?!?

Anyway, all kidding aside, the Viking offense is still good without Moss, but not great. The Colts offense, meanwhile, is more of a complete "machine" than is the Vikings. The efficiency and explosiveness that is combined in one team is unmatched by any in the NFL. Why am I focusing so much on the offenses of each team? Well, did you WATCH any football this year? PICK: Colts

KANSAS CITY (-3) at TAMPA BAY
Bad as the Chiefs defense is, it's been better in recent weeks. Though they gave up 35 to the Colts, EVERYONE gives up 35 to the Colts. This game will basically come down to whether the Chiefs can score early. If they can get up even 10-3, I see very little chance for the Bucs to stay in it. Sure, they can score some points…but they'll be hard-pressed to match up with the Chiefs over a long period of time. PICK: Chiefs

Even though I was 13-4 on my lock of the week last season, and 12-5 the year before, for some reason this year I stink and can do nothing right so this is going to be completely wrong pick of the week: Kansas City Chiefs

By the numbers

• Last week
  Overall: 8-6
  Best bets: 1-3
  Lock of the week: 0-1



• Year to date
  Overall: 49-48-2 (50.5%)
  Best bets: 16-12 (57.1%)
  Lock of the week: 3-4 (42.9%)