The Profit - Week P1
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Posted 1/8 by Michael Brown, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Yep, pretty damn devastated.
That was my mood a little less than a week ago. I had my Nevada Diner cheeseburgers
in front of me, coming off a correct pick of Saint Louis against Seattle, settling
in with some friends to watch the Chargers' imminent dismantling of the Jets.
When suddenly, a very strange thing happened. Marty Schottenheimer suddenly
remembered that he's Marty Schottenheimer.
During the first three and a half quarters of the game, the Chargers bore little
resemblance to the one that compiled a 12-4 regular season record and some very
prolific offensive numbers. As a matter of fact, they resembled, well, the Jets!
Sure, Antonio Gates was being well-covered. And yes, the conditions played a
part in the gameplan, to an extent. But did Marty not see the early Keenan McCardell
touchdown grab? Did he miss those nearly thirty touchdown tosses Brees compiled
this year? Did he not see the Rams torch New York a week ago to the tune of
450 yards through the air? This Jets team could be had. Case in point? The Jets,
by all accounts, thoroughly outplayed the Chargers for pretty much the entire
game. Yet they only escaped with a win thanks to a missed field goal in overtime.
The Chargers played probably their worst game of the season, and STILL were
in prime position to win it in OT. Ah yes, the OT.
Let's take it step-by-step, shall we? Chargers driving at the end of regulation,
yet come up just short by failing to convert a fourth down. I immediately storm
out of the room, dejected over the loss. But wait, a flag? It's got to be holding.
There's no way that call was against the Je----oh my GOD IT WAS AGAINST THE
JETS!!! New life. New hope. One play later, and it's a one-point game. At the
time, I did make it a point to say Kaeding still needed to make the extra point,
which was no 'gimme' with a rookie kicker. I feared them losing in Detroit Lions/New
Orleans Saints fashion, on a missed extra point. Sometimes, the demons of being
a Chargers fan rear their collective head every now and then. Still, Kaeding
hit the PAT and it was on to the overtime session. By this point, my insides
were a bigger mess than Randy Moss' hair, so a bathroom break was very necessary
before the overtime began. I heard much cheering from the living room, so I
correctly assume the Chargers had won the toss. That's it, I thought. They've
got this one. But then another strange thing happened. During the opening drive,
they encountered a second and one. They attempted a pass. No big deal, I figured.
Take a shot, now it's third down. And then Marty REALLY got going.
LaDainian Tomlinson is, by most accounts, one of the top two or three running
backs in the NFL. Most, including myself, would say he's the best. The Jets'
defensive line had done a very good job on Tomlinson, but no one is confusing
them for the best d-line in football. The thinking of most people at that time
was, likely, run it up the gut, get the first down, and keep the drive moving.
Well, they ran it - on a halfback draw from the shotgun formation. HuhWHA?!?
Yes, great call Marty - let's get cute now. You've only got the best back in
football, and with your conservative way about you, everyone on the planet knows
you'll be running the ball here. So let's give your back NO head start to pick
up steam or momentum, and let's run it from the shotgun formation so he's even
further back. Then let's be shocked when you don't pick up the first down. It
was stupid then, and stupider now.
But wait, following a Jets possession, the Chargers have the ball back. So
now, let's finally find Antonio Gates on a consistent basis. Let's move the
ball downfield. Let's get it into field goal range. I don't even have a huge
problem with running it a couple of times once you're in range. Ok, now it's
third down from the middle of the hash marks. Perfect situation. Sure, you'd
have loved to have gotten a little bit closer but with the conditions such as
they are, you don't want to risk anything. Let's send Kaeding onto the field
and get out of here, okay?
Offense still on the field. Brees under center. What in the name of all that
is holy is going on here? Why aren't they kicking on third down? You know, bad
snap, bad hold, etc. That whole thing? Well, I sure do hope they're going to
throw it on this down because otherwise, the few yards Tomlinson would pick
up aren't worth losing the perfect centering of the ball between the hash marks.
Ok wait, they are running. TO THE RIGHT?!? The following is a direct quote from
yours truly following the run up TO THE RIGHT.
"Well, Schottenheimer did it again. Why the HELL do you run to the right
side? I mean, you've got third down, ball in the middle of the hash marks, why
would you do that? He's gonna miss now."
Of course, had Kaeding made the kick none of this matters. But to put the game
in the hands of a young kicker, in his first-ever playoff game, in those conditions,
and then to take away his primo angle one snap before
well that's just
unforgivable. Whether they covered or not mattered not at all by that point,
since I'd never place a bet that my team was playing in anyway. This was about
exorcizing demons of the past ten years, but instead they just kept on coming.
Sure, this season was a rousing success for the Chargers. But it could have
been so much more with a first-round win. Doing better than they were supposed
to is all well and good, but getting to the divisional round is infinitely better,
though I don't need to tell any of you that. I didn't even get a chance to prove
to everyone that I would take Pittsburgh to win and cover against San Diego,
because I think that highly of the Steelers. I expected this run to end this
Saturday afternoon, and while it would have been painful, it wouldn't have been
devastating.
I received an e-mail from a friend of mine the day after the game that ended
with "tough loss, man." I responded by correcting him. "Agonizing
is more like it."
On to the picks
Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds.html
ATLANTA (-7) vs. SAINT LOUIS
So now just because the Rams beat one of the all-time failures in the history
of football (Seattle), they can suddenly go into Atlanta and stop Michael Vick?
Methinks not. The Rams are better than their 8-8 record indicated, but keep
in mind the opponent last weekend was Seattle. I can't stress enough how much
of a failure this Seattle group is. Anyone who has Sunday Ticket and watches
them on a regular basis says the same thing, that they're just so bad. My brother's
friend, an Arizona Cardinals fan, was rooting for the Rams BIG-TIME last weekend
against Seattle. Not because he has some sort of Rams interest or because Seattle
smited the Cardinals or anything. He said it's because he watched Seattle with
the Ticket all season long and just hates them so much because they're SO BAD!
My point of all this? Don't be hoodwinked into thinking the Rams have turned
a corner just because they BARELY held on to beat Seattle. No, the Falcons are
much better than some people give them credit for. They've got an outstanding
defensive line that WILL put pressure on Marc Bulger, and the Rams defense will
be given fits by Vick all day long. The Rams may hang around awhile and keep
it interesting for some time, but expect Atlanta to capitalize on a turnover
or two and put this thing away for good in the fourth quarter. PICK: Falcons
PITTSBURGH (-8.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
Listening to talk radio in the New York area, you'd think the Jets were playing
the Jets this week. People are comparing the two teams as if they're so similar.
After all, both have good young quarterbacks (Pennington with even more playoff
experience), both have good solid running games that feature two backs that
can do major damage, both teams have very good offensive lines, both teams have
stellar defensive units with perhaps pass defense as a weak link, both teams
have fiery head coaches who have proven to be outstanding leaders. So what's
the difference? Well, for starters, the Steelers do all that the Jets do - but
they do it much, MUCH better. PICK: Steelers
*As a side note, with the Chargers now out of it, I turn my rooting interest
towards Steel Town, seeing as how my brother and brother-in-law are both Steeler
fans.
NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
There are at least a dozen reasons to go with either team in this matchup. If
you told me you were betting with either one, I couldn't fault you for it. Perhaps
that's why the Pats - the defending Super Bowl champs - are a mere 1.5 point
favorites - at HOME - against a team whose number they have clearly had in recent
years. What does that tell me? It tells me that Vegas isn't confident in the
Patriots anymore. I don't want to be one of "those" people who is
just jumping all over the Colts' bandwagon, but I can't help myself. I kept
telling myself all season long, "If it comes down the Pats/Colts, I'm taking
the Pats." But it's tough to do so now. Even just now, honestly, when I
typed that last sentence, I accidentally typed "Colts" where it should
have said "Pats" at the end of the sentence. See, I can't get off
them! A guy named Earthwind Moreland will be playing a prominent role for New
England this week. Now listen, I know that Bill Belichik is not to be underestimated,
but this is tough even for him. And it's not as if Tony Dungy is some slouch
coach himself. So yeah, I'm going with the popular consensus this week and taking
the Colts. Both teams at full strength, I'd give the Edge to the Patriots. But
they're at bottom right now just as the Colts are peaking, and I'm going with
them as my only dog this week. PICK: Colts
PHILADELPHIA (-8.5) vs. MINNESOTA
You've got to love the first round. An extremely flawed team like Minnesota
goes out and beats up on another extremely flawed team and suddenly they've
got a shot. Let me tell you something: they don't. Trust me, I'd love nothing
more than to see the Eagles knocked off and Minnesota go the rest of the way.
I've never been a big Eagles supporter, I've got a loudmouth Eagles fan for
one of my best friends, and Minnesota was my preseason Super Bowl pick. But
I just don't see it. Sure, the Eagles have no Terrell Owens, which obviously
makes them much worse. Ok, so now instead of being leaps and bounds ahead of
the rest of the NFC, they're only bounds. Or leaps. Either or, they're much
better (still) than anyone else out there. Oh, and Randy Moss is hobbled and
hasn't practiced all week. Moe Williams will have a limited role. The Vikings
defense is still nowhere near respectable. Take advantage of people not realizing
how good Philly still IS, and how underachieving Minnesota has been all year.
PICK: Eagles
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Philadelphia Eagles
By the numbers
- Last week
Overall: 2-2
Lock of the week: 0-1 (I really wanted to take the Colts, because they were
the obvious choice. But I figured I'd show some solidarity behind my boys
from San Diego. Good thing I kept the bankroll in the wallet last week!)
- PLAYOFF RECORD
Overall: 2-2
Lock of the week: 0-1
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