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The Profit - Week P1


Yep, pretty damn devastated.

That was my mood a little less than a week ago. I had my Nevada Diner cheeseburgers in front of me, coming off a correct pick of Saint Louis against Seattle, settling in with some friends to watch the Chargers' imminent dismantling of the Jets. When suddenly, a very strange thing happened. Marty Schottenheimer suddenly remembered that he's Marty Schottenheimer.

During the first three and a half quarters of the game, the Chargers bore little resemblance to the one that compiled a 12-4 regular season record and some very prolific offensive numbers. As a matter of fact, they resembled, well, the Jets! Sure, Antonio Gates was being well-covered. And yes, the conditions played a part in the gameplan, to an extent. But did Marty not see the early Keenan McCardell touchdown grab? Did he miss those nearly thirty touchdown tosses Brees compiled this year? Did he not see the Rams torch New York a week ago to the tune of 450 yards through the air? This Jets team could be had. Case in point? The Jets, by all accounts, thoroughly outplayed the Chargers for pretty much the entire game. Yet they only escaped with a win thanks to a missed field goal in overtime. The Chargers played probably their worst game of the season, and STILL were in prime position to win it in OT. Ah yes, the OT.

Let's take it step-by-step, shall we? Chargers driving at the end of regulation, yet come up just short by failing to convert a fourth down. I immediately storm out of the room, dejected over the loss. But wait, a flag? It's got to be holding. There's no way that call was against the Je----oh my GOD IT WAS AGAINST THE JETS!!! New life. New hope. One play later, and it's a one-point game. At the time, I did make it a point to say Kaeding still needed to make the extra point, which was no 'gimme' with a rookie kicker. I feared them losing in Detroit Lions/New Orleans Saints fashion, on a missed extra point. Sometimes, the demons of being a Chargers fan rear their collective head every now and then. Still, Kaeding hit the PAT and it was on to the overtime session. By this point, my insides were a bigger mess than Randy Moss' hair, so a bathroom break was very necessary before the overtime began. I heard much cheering from the living room, so I correctly assume the Chargers had won the toss. That's it, I thought. They've got this one. But then another strange thing happened. During the opening drive, they encountered a second and one. They attempted a pass. No big deal, I figured. Take a shot, now it's third down. And then Marty REALLY got going.

LaDainian Tomlinson is, by most accounts, one of the top two or three running backs in the NFL. Most, including myself, would say he's the best. The Jets' defensive line had done a very good job on Tomlinson, but no one is confusing them for the best d-line in football. The thinking of most people at that time was, likely, run it up the gut, get the first down, and keep the drive moving. Well, they ran it - on a halfback draw from the shotgun formation. HuhWHA?!? Yes, great call Marty - let's get cute now. You've only got the best back in football, and with your conservative way about you, everyone on the planet knows you'll be running the ball here. So let's give your back NO head start to pick up steam or momentum, and let's run it from the shotgun formation so he's even further back. Then let's be shocked when you don't pick up the first down. It was stupid then, and stupider now.

But wait, following a Jets possession, the Chargers have the ball back. So now, let's finally find Antonio Gates on a consistent basis. Let's move the ball downfield. Let's get it into field goal range. I don't even have a huge problem with running it a couple of times once you're in range. Ok, now it's third down from the middle of the hash marks. Perfect situation. Sure, you'd have loved to have gotten a little bit closer but with the conditions such as they are, you don't want to risk anything. Let's send Kaeding onto the field and get out of here, okay?

Offense still on the field. Brees under center. What in the name of all that is holy is going on here? Why aren't they kicking on third down? You know, bad snap, bad hold, etc. That whole thing? Well, I sure do hope they're going to throw it on this down because otherwise, the few yards Tomlinson would pick up aren't worth losing the perfect centering of the ball between the hash marks. Ok wait, they are running. TO THE RIGHT?!? The following is a direct quote from yours truly following the run up TO THE RIGHT.

"Well, Schottenheimer did it again. Why the HELL do you run to the right side? I mean, you've got third down, ball in the middle of the hash marks, why would you do that? He's gonna miss now."

Of course, had Kaeding made the kick none of this matters. But to put the game in the hands of a young kicker, in his first-ever playoff game, in those conditions, and then to take away his primo angle one snap before…well that's just unforgivable. Whether they covered or not mattered not at all by that point, since I'd never place a bet that my team was playing in anyway. This was about exorcizing demons of the past ten years, but instead they just kept on coming.

Sure, this season was a rousing success for the Chargers. But it could have been so much more with a first-round win. Doing better than they were supposed to is all well and good, but getting to the divisional round is infinitely better, though I don't need to tell any of you that. I didn't even get a chance to prove to everyone that I would take Pittsburgh to win and cover against San Diego, because I think that highly of the Steelers. I expected this run to end this Saturday afternoon, and while it would have been painful, it wouldn't have been devastating.

I received an e-mail from a friend of mine the day after the game that ended with "tough loss, man." I responded by correcting him. "Agonizing is more like it."

On to the picks…

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds.html

ATLANTA (-7) vs. SAINT LOUIS
So now just because the Rams beat one of the all-time failures in the history of football (Seattle), they can suddenly go into Atlanta and stop Michael Vick? Methinks not. The Rams are better than their 8-8 record indicated, but keep in mind the opponent last weekend was Seattle. I can't stress enough how much of a failure this Seattle group is. Anyone who has Sunday Ticket and watches them on a regular basis says the same thing, that they're just so bad. My brother's friend, an Arizona Cardinals fan, was rooting for the Rams BIG-TIME last weekend against Seattle. Not because he has some sort of Rams interest or because Seattle smited the Cardinals or anything. He said it's because he watched Seattle with the Ticket all season long and just hates them so much because they're SO BAD! My point of all this? Don't be hoodwinked into thinking the Rams have turned a corner just because they BARELY held on to beat Seattle. No, the Falcons are much better than some people give them credit for. They've got an outstanding defensive line that WILL put pressure on Marc Bulger, and the Rams defense will be given fits by Vick all day long. The Rams may hang around awhile and keep it interesting for some time, but expect Atlanta to capitalize on a turnover or two and put this thing away for good in the fourth quarter. PICK: Falcons

PITTSBURGH (-8.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
Listening to talk radio in the New York area, you'd think the Jets were playing the Jets this week. People are comparing the two teams as if they're so similar. After all, both have good young quarterbacks (Pennington with even more playoff experience), both have good solid running games that feature two backs that can do major damage, both teams have very good offensive lines, both teams have stellar defensive units with perhaps pass defense as a weak link, both teams have fiery head coaches who have proven to be outstanding leaders. So what's the difference? Well, for starters, the Steelers do all that the Jets do - but they do it much, MUCH better. PICK: Steelers

*As a side note, with the Chargers now out of it, I turn my rooting interest towards Steel Town, seeing as how my brother and brother-in-law are both Steeler fans.

NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
There are at least a dozen reasons to go with either team in this matchup. If you told me you were betting with either one, I couldn't fault you for it. Perhaps that's why the Pats - the defending Super Bowl champs - are a mere 1.5 point favorites - at HOME - against a team whose number they have clearly had in recent years. What does that tell me? It tells me that Vegas isn't confident in the Patriots anymore. I don't want to be one of "those" people who is just jumping all over the Colts' bandwagon, but I can't help myself. I kept telling myself all season long, "If it comes down the Pats/Colts, I'm taking the Pats." But it's tough to do so now. Even just now, honestly, when I typed that last sentence, I accidentally typed "Colts" where it should have said "Pats" at the end of the sentence. See, I can't get off them! A guy named Earthwind Moreland will be playing a prominent role for New England this week. Now listen, I know that Bill Belichik is not to be underestimated, but this is tough even for him. And it's not as if Tony Dungy is some slouch coach himself. So yeah, I'm going with the popular consensus this week and taking the Colts. Both teams at full strength, I'd give the Edge to the Patriots. But they're at bottom right now just as the Colts are peaking, and I'm going with them as my only dog this week. PICK: Colts

PHILADELPHIA (-8.5) vs. MINNESOTA
You've got to love the first round. An extremely flawed team like Minnesota goes out and beats up on another extremely flawed team and suddenly they've got a shot. Let me tell you something: they don't. Trust me, I'd love nothing more than to see the Eagles knocked off and Minnesota go the rest of the way. I've never been a big Eagles supporter, I've got a loudmouth Eagles fan for one of my best friends, and Minnesota was my preseason Super Bowl pick. But I just don't see it. Sure, the Eagles have no Terrell Owens, which obviously makes them much worse. Ok, so now instead of being leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the NFC, they're only bounds. Or leaps. Either or, they're much better (still) than anyone else out there. Oh, and Randy Moss is hobbled and hasn't practiced all week. Moe Williams will have a limited role. The Vikings defense is still nowhere near respectable. Take advantage of people not realizing how good Philly still IS, and how underachieving Minnesota has been all year. PICK: Eagles

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Philadelphia Eagles

By the numbers

  • Last week
    Overall: 2-2
    Lock of the week: 0-1 (I really wanted to take the Colts, because they were the obvious choice. But I figured I'd show some solidarity behind my boys from San Diego. Good thing I kept the bankroll in the wallet last week!)


  • PLAYOFF RECORD
    Overall: 2-2
    Lock of the week: 0-1
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