The Profit - Mike Brown

NEW ENGLAND (-3) at PITTSBURGH
There I was, all set to take New England and the points when the line came out that Pittsburgh was giving 3 or so. But then a funny thing happened. Well, not so much funny as it was normal. Vegas knew the deal. The Pats opened as favorites, and nothing has changed since. They knew people would bet up New England as a road dog, so they turned the tables on all of us, making this a near-impossible call. If you go with the Pats and only lay three, then you're basically saying that the Patriots are going to go into the home of a 16-1 team in the AFC Championship game, against a quarterback who has never lost in his professional career, against a team that already beat the crap out of them once (not to mention having a strength at seemingly every opposing spot that your team has a weakness). That's what you're saying. Well, I can't say that. Yes, the Patriots were mighty impressive last week. Yes, they are the champs until someone knocks them off and all that. But it's like I said last week. You cannot let a previous week's result dictate what is the true colors of a team. You can't let the Rams win over Seattle taint the fact that the Rams were a bad team. You can't let the Vikings impressive showing over Green Bay fool you into thinking that the Vikings suddenly turned a corner. It was a flawed Green Bay team. That's the line of thinking I'm using here. I can't let last week's result fool me. Yes, the Steelers looked very poor against an overrated Jets unit. Yes, the Pats destroyed the Colts, whom many people (myself included) were ready to anoint as Super Bowl champs a few weeks back. But the Colts are not the Steelers. They don't nearly have the defensive presence. They don't have the physical wide receivers. They don't have the ability to score and win games unless their offense is absolutely clicking on all cylinders. I think the Steelers played their worst game they'll play this postseason last week, and I think New England already played their best. PICK: Steelers

PHILADELPHIA (-5) vs. ATLANTA
Snow. Lots of it. That's what is currently headed for Philadelphia. But wait, shouldn't that benefit the Eagles, as the home team? Wouldn't it be a problem for the Falcons, since they are used to playing in a dome? Perhaps those things are true. I tend to not want to overrate the playing conditions, because then you'd never see a team from outside of Florida, California, or a dome ever win a Super Bowl (they're always played in impeccable weather). So I'll give more credence to the fact that the Falcons are a devastating running team, and if that Eagles defense has had one problem this year, it has been stopping the run. The Eagles can also run the ball, but I like Atlanta's front against Brian Westbrook more than I like the Philly front against Dunn/Duckett.

Now we move on to the quarterbacks. The Eagles MUST throw the ball to win. It's their game. Don't get me wrong, Freddie Mitchell and company did well last week - against the Vikings. The Falcons, make no mistake, are NOT the Vikings. The defensive front line will get some pressure on McNabb. Donovan, never one to be known for his amazing accuracy, will now have to deal with a cold football and near-frigid conditions. He's terrific at avoiding the rush, but this is a top-notch rush. Thus, I don't see him having a lot of time to throw. And what happens when you don't have a lot of time to rhrow? You need the receivers to get open quickly. Well, forgive me for not believing that Mitchell, Todd Pinkston, and the rest of em will be able to exploit any secondary matchups that quickly. It could be a very troublesome day for the Philly offense.

Moving on to Atlanta's offense, I love the challenge that Vick presents, but I'm obviously not alone on that one. I'm more eager to see the role T.J. Duckett plays. Sure, we know what Vick and Dunn and Crumpler will do for Atlanta, just as we know the roles of McNabb and Brian Westbrook for the Eagles. But in a cold-weather game, with a distinct need for ball control and smashmouth football, I'd place my money on Duckett being one of the biggest keys to the game. And I say he comes up big. PICK: Falcons

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Atlanta Falcons (as confident as I sounded, you can never bring yourself to bet against the Pats in the playoffs, can you?!?)

By the numbers

Last week
Overall: 2-2
Lock of the week: 1-0
PLAYOFF RECORD
Overall: 4-4
Lock of the week: 1-1