Before I begin, I just want to tell you that it's tough coming up with a title. Seriously. I've been writing papers in school and such for quite some time now. You know the drill. Sit in front of the computer for a half hour, wishing you could come up with a title so you could finally feel like you're accomplishing something, only to come up with a title that's about as exciting as Eddie George running sprints (ooooh, low blow). So anyway, let me apologize in advance for not grabbing the reader to this page with a clever title. Any suggestions should be sent to [email protected]. I can't wait to see some of the suggestions if I have a bad week. Perhaps I'll learn some new curse words for my next social gathering.

OK, so here's what we're going to do with this one. I'll pick all the games on the slate, unlike the so-called 'experts' who stick to 4 per week. I do this just because I know everyone out there is dying to trust their hard-earned cash to someone they don't know whatsoever and you NEED this sort of in-depth analysis (really just a gut feeling usually) from someone like me. Now, besides picking all the games, I'm going to give my four "Best Bets". These are the games I have a good feeling about, and you should bet with confidence on them. When I say bet, I of course mean in the Saved By the Bell kind of way. You know, bet on your best friend's bomber jacket, or bet for who gets to ask Kelly Kapowski to the prom. Don't use actual dollars, too risky. Along with the best bets, I will include one game each week as the "Lock of the week". This is the no-doubt about it, slam-dunk game that you should feel free to call me on if I'm hideously wrong.

Good luck to all you friendly wagerers out there. Of course, about half of you will be betting on games that the other half needs to win, and vice versa. So, odds are (get it, odds) that at least half of you will have bad luck. Either way, if you use these picks for making your determinations in any way, I disavow any responsibility. Of course, should you use these picks and come out on top then I expect 10% or else I start breakin' kneecaps.

Without further ado, I give you my initial set.

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds.html

ATLANTA (-2.5) vs. ST. LOUIS

Let's see…Atlanta allowed the supposedly awful 49ers passing attack to do more than its fair share in Week 1, and barely edged them for the win. The Rams, whose main concern coming into the season was the play of the offensive line, certainly seemed to hold up well last week. What's that, you say? Arizona is atrocious? Well, yes. That's true. But last I checked, no one was confusing Atlanta with the Fearsome Foursome, either. The Atlanta DBs will have a tough time hanging with Holt and co. Isn't one of the big advantages for the Rams the fact that they play exceptionally well in domes? Yes I know, there is the Vick factor. He can single-handedly win any game by himself, which threatens to ruin every bet against him from now until the end of his career, but when a spread is as close as this you bet based on who will win. I just don't see the Falcons winning this game.
PICK: Rams

BALTIMORE (-4) vs. PITTSBURGH

Last season, Jamal Lewis opened up with a dud against the Steelers before torching the Browns. This season, Jamal opened up with a dud against the Browns before…you see where I'm going here? It's tough to hold a great back down. Some are concerned with Lewis because he got stuffed by a defense that he lit up last year. But go back and check the stats. Outside of Lewis' two games, the Browns rushing defense actually had a pretty good year. You can't arbitrarily toss those games out, but the fact of the matter that the loss of Jonathan Ogden in this one was probably the difference between a good game for Lewis and the offense as opposed to a struggle. The return of Ogden will do wonders for this team. It was said that Kyle Boller and the passing game didn't do enough to open up holes for Lewis, but I tend to think it was the other way around. No Ogden=no holes. No holes=no Lewis yardage. No Lewis yardage, well you get the point. Lewis is a great back, but if you can get to him before he hits the second level, it makes your job that much easier. Factor in that Pittsburgh had a lot of trouble on several occasions with the Raiders passing game (and is coming off an awful 2003 season defending the pass), and I could see Lewis doing a lot in this one. When Lewis does a lot, good things tend to happen.
PICK: Ravens

CINCINNATI (-4.5) vs. MIAMI

All right now, all you Dolfans. There are plenty of support groups that offer counseling. I know it isn't easy being underdogs against the Bengals. It feels like the world has been turned upside down, and nothing makes sense anymore. In fact, after one week, it almost seems crazy to pick the Dolphins over Cincy. Well, call me crazy then. The Miami defense is still quite good, and some would say it is amongst the best in the league. They held Steve McNair and the Titans in check last week for the most part, save for a big Chris Brown run. Sure, the Miami offense struggled against the Titans defense but now they get a much easier matchup in Cincy, who was just torched by the Jets to the tune of 443 yards from scrimmage.

As for other matchups, it can be argued that the Bengals offense is in the same area code as Tennessee's, but I don't think anyone would put it ahead. Thus, the Dolphins have an easier matchup defensively than they had last week as well. Palmer won't be able to play pitch-and-catch this week as he did last week, because the Phins are much better than the Jets in that regard. What I'm saying is, the Dolphins played close against a supposedly infinitely superior team in Tennessee last week, and now they get a lighter opponent. What's more, Jay Fiedler will be watching this one from the comfort of the sideline. It's not quite as dramatic as last year's QB battle for the Rams, but does this not remind everyone of the Warner/Bulger situation last year. Obviously, Fiedler never came close to anything Warner did but it almost seemed like they put him out there waiting for him to fail so that they could go with the other guy. A.J. Feely is not the second coming of Dan Marino, and may not even be comparable to Marc Bulger, but hasn't everyone been wondering what he could do for a full game? He'll show what he can do in this one, and the Cincinnati DBs will have their hands full.
PICK: Dolphins

DALLAS (-4) vs. CLEVELAND

VIN-NY!

VIN-NY!

No, I'm not chanting in honor of Testaverde. I'm trying to call his name to get his attention, but he can't hear me because his hearing aid fell out. Get it? Because he's so OLD! Well guess what. That doesn't matter. He threw the ball 50 times last week for well over 300 yards, so you know what that tells me? He's not too old to play football. Of course, I'm sure Bill Parcells hopes to never have him throw it even 35 times again the remainder of the year, but at least we know he can. The Browns, meanwhile, stifled Jamal Lewis. Strangled him might be a better term, actually. They played about as well as one can expect them to play. In fact, if you ask me, they probably played their best game of the year right there. Dallas was going up against a potential Super Bowl contender in Minnesota. Cleveland was out for blood and revenge against the man who embarrassed them last year. Now that neither team is at such a huge disadvantage/advantage, I fully expect the better team to come out and win. The Browns, clearly, are NOT the Vikings. Dallas will have no such issues holding this offense in check. And I think they'll be able to muster enough offensively to get by more than 4.
PICK: Cowboys

DENVER (-3) at JACKSONVILLE

Finally, a home 'dog'. Denver showed a lot of people something last week by manhandling the Chiefs in nearly all aspects of the game. Except for the part about not letting Priest Holmes score three times. They were a little rough on that one. But the Denver gameplan worked to near-perfection, save for a few ill-fated pass attempts by "Lefty" Plummer. I had a Garo Yepremian line all set to run here but Bryant went and stole my thunder in Random Shots. Anyway, as for the rest of the Broncos, what can be said about Quentin Griffin? Most commonly overheard discussion this week:

"Boy, is that Griffin kid good!"

"Yeah, I know. He's great. And he's so small!"

"Yeah, the defense can't even see him! He's so small and good!"

"Yup. He's gonna be really good I think. And he's definitely small."

(C'mon people…you ALL had this conversation, admit it. The thing is, he's not really all that small when you think about it. Sure, he's short - but not small. Tell me, who is bigger - the guy who goes 5'7" at 195 or the guy who is 6'2" at 180? Since Griffin is short, people call him small and not durable. But I think just the opposite. If you're packing 195 pounds into a 5'7" frame then you're pretty f'in huge!)

Anyway, I like the Jacksonville defense, but not enough to keep this Denver team in check. Why? Mostly because I think the offense of the Jags will do nothing against Denver's defense. We saw what Denver (ok, Champ Bailey) did to the Kansas City passing game. Now imagine what they can do to Byron Leftwich. I anticipate Denver's offense being on the field for much of this game, and Jacksonville to struggle to remain in it.
PICK: Broncos

DETROIT (-3) vs. HOUSTON

All aboard! Welcome to the Detroit Lions' bandwagon. Oh no, someone fell off! Hurry, help them up. Oh no, it's Charles Rogers. He fell off the bandwagon and broke his collarbone. Damn. You know what? Screw it, stop this bandwagon. I'm getting off. Ok, so maybe it wasn't a bandwagon, per se. But the pieces were in place for the Lions to at least be exciting and competitive this season. And they still squeaked out a win over the lowly Bears. (By the way, we need to proposition the NFL to officially change their team name from 'Chicago Bears' to 'Lowly Bears'). But they played that game not knowing their best offensive player was done for the year. With that hanging over them, and the fact that they are the Lions, you almost expect them to go out and lay an egg. The Texans didn't look all that great in getting dropped by San Diego, and yes I know the foolishness in picking the Texans on the road, but I couldn't be any more down on the Lions right now.
PICK: Texans

KANSAS CITY (-6) vs. CAROLINA

So there were two things we learned about these teams last weekend. 1) It doesn't matter if you get Dale Earnhardt Jr. to drive your Ford Taurus - it's still a Ford Taurus. A change in defensive coordinators is a good idea for a team with a brutal defense, but until/unless they start making some plays more than oh, once a month, we must assume that the Chiefs defense is going to struggle again. 2) The Panthers are, in fact, that team. What is THAT team? Come on now. You know what I'm talking about. The team that performs well over their capabilities and fools everyone into thinking they are an elite team, only to fall flat the following year. You can't tell me you aren't thinking it. Terrible offensive line problems, starting back suffering from an injury before the season even begins, now the main weapon in the passing game is down for an extended time. Recipe for disaster. Yes, even at this early juncture. So what do we make of these two struggling teams? Well, considering Carolina didn't have many answers for Ahman Green, why should we expect them to do much with Priest Holmes? And if the Chiefs get a lead early on (which they will), playing at home, coming off a loss, well you can pretty much guess where that'll head.
PICK: Chiefs

NEW ORLEANS (-7) vs. SAN FRANCISCO

I came across an interesting article during the preseason about the 49ers possibly surprising some people this year. Sure, they lost Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens. And sure, those guys enjoyed tremendous success in San Fran over the years. But did they not cut Garcia? Did they not let Owens walk away? Granted, with Owens they probably had no other option. But you'd think if they were considered indispensable, marquee guys that the franchise would have done more. Owens, for all his talents, remains an inconsistent, injury-prone, drop-prone malcontent. He's more talented than any of the current crop on the Niners, but sometimes having a guy demand the ball every play isn't what's best for an offensive UNIT. Also, who was Jeff Garcia before heading to the Niners? Other than a brief cameo in The Shawshank Redemption, no one ever heard of him. What is the point of all this? The 49ers may not be just a completely lost franchise this year as some have suggested. They still have Kevan Barlow, still have Eric Johnson, and still have playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. Take this early opportunity to bet on their behalf before everyone realizes they aren't quite as bad as everyone is making them out to be. After all, the Patriots have won for several years now without "star" players. Can the Niners not do the same? Oh, and as for the Saints. Don't fall for the siren song of talent. Until they put together a string of good games, they're too risky to rely on.
PICK: 49ers

NEW ENGLAND (-8) at ARIZONA

At the risk of sounding like a buffoon, I think this game will be a lot closer than it should be. Don't ask me why, because I can't back it up with any sort of statistic or logic. In fact, just about the only basis for picking against New England in this game is because it should be such a complete and utter slam-dunk in the opposite direction. Home/road matters little to these Pats, who could seemingly beat the New York Mets at baseball, so long as Belichik got a printout of the stats ahead of time. These are those types of games that can go one of several ways. Either I can pick the Pats like everyone else, and when they win it becomes a blip on the radar. OR I can pick the Pats like everyone else and if Arizona covers then ALL of us say "Whoa, who saw that one coming?" Then again, I could pick Arizona and if the Pats win I could say, "Hey I took a shot. What do you want from me, perfection?" OR I could pick Arizona and when they win I could say, "Ha, in all of your collective face. I am a genius on the level of which you will never reach!"

Normally I wouldn't advise you to bet based on potential glory, but it's a sneaky suspicion that I can't shake. I'm not saying the Pats will lose, but I think Arizona will be game.
PICK: Cardinals

OAKLAND (-3.5) vs. BUFFALO

This is a toughie. Oakland is difficult to read, mainly because you can't get a gauge on how they really played last week. They didn't run well, Gannon turned the ball over, and the defense allowed Staley, Bettis, and Ward to do a lot. Then again, Gannon hooked up for two long scores, went over 300 yards passing, and Tommy Maddox didn't exactly light up the stat sheet. Buffalo, likewise, had an odd game. Save for a blown assignment by the Jacksonville secondary, the Bills did not score a touchdown against them. Factor in that Drew Bledsoe left his career back in 1996 and you sort of wonder what could happen here. Honestly, it could go either way. And when that's the case, you go with the homeboys.
PICK: Raiders

SEATTLE (-3) at TAMPA BAY

Quick, place your bets! Ok, got em in? Good. This is the time of year to take advantage of a team being overrated. Now I didn't watch the game, so I'm speaking only based off of highlights and word of mouth. But seriously, how bad did the Bucs look? Seriously. Jake Plummer's lefty toss went further than any of Brad Johnson's throws this past weekend, I believe. What are they doing down there? The only reason Tampa is only a 3 point 'dog is because there are Gruden believers. They feel that the Bucs will challenge because last year was their one-year reprieve following the Super Bowl, and now they're re-loaded are ready to contend again. I ask you, why is this the case? Just because they won two years ago? I'm not buying it. There isn't a single dynamic playmaker on this offense, and that's INCLUDING if Keenan McCardell were still around. When your best offensive player is 64-year old Charlie Garner, you've got some trouble. Seattle, meanwhile, is a legit Super Bowl contender and thoroughly dominated the Saints. Shaun Alexander or not, this team is making noise. If Maurice Morris gets the call, watch him do an Alexander impression and lead em to a win.
PICK: Seahawks

PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) vs. MINNESOTA

Overheard on the ESPN set this past weekend, when discussing who was better, Randy Moss or Terrell Owens. "…but you just can't argue with the chemistry between McNabb and T.O."

HUH?!?

Did I miss something here? Yes, they displayed great chemistry. Yes, McNabb had a terrific game. Yes, Owens is a physical freak of nature and a supremely talented player. But you want to talk about chemistry? Does the Culpepper to Moss connection ring a bell? Minnesota is absolutely a team on a mission. You can see it all the way down the roster. Will it be a tall order to go into a raucous Philly house and take a win on Monday Night Football? You bet. But for a team coming off such a convincing win as Philly as, does anyone else find it odd that they are just 3.5 favorites at home against a team that didn't even make the playoffs last year? Maybe the oddsmakers are the only people on Earth who didn't get caught up in the Eagles' impressive showing because -- what do you know! - it was against the freakin' Giants! Don't get me wrong; the Eagles are a good football team. But they won't be having their way with the Vikings like they did with New York. The Minnesota offense appears absolutely unstoppable. It'll be a big early-season test for the Eagles revamped defensive backfield, a test I don't think they're quite ready for just yet.
PICK: Vikings

BEST BETS

NEW YORK JETS (-3) at SAN DIEGO

I saw a headline earlier this afternoon about the 'surprising' Chargers. How sad is that, really? I could see if a team was 3-0 or 4-0 and had beaten at least a decent opponent. But no, the Chargers warrant surprise status because they're 1-0 and beat a third-year expansion team. Sweet. Now they get to play a REAL team. I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict that Drew Brees' passer rating will dip slightly below perfection maybe. Meanwhile, if Chad Pennington did what he did against the Bengals, he should have a field day here. The Chargers are an improved team from last year, but then again so are the Jets. There's no reason to think San Diego (which by the way scraped by the Texans) will be able to hang with one of the AFC's big boys.
PICK: Jets

GREEN BAY (-9) vs. CHICAGO

The Bears lost at home -- to the Lions! -- last week. The Packers beat up on the NFC defending champs. Nine points? Yeah, you never know what's going to happen in these rivalry games but this Packer team has the early season 'look'.
PICK: Packers

TENNESSEE (-1.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS

Another early-season situation that needs to be taken advantage of. Indy, despite how they coughed up precious opportunities last week at New England, is a serious Super Bowl team. Edge is back, they've got a bevy of weapons offensively, and they're loaded up for another deep playoff run. Tennessee? You've got to like Chris Brown, even if he is already showing a propensity to suffer the occasional ding. And of course, McNair is McNair. But the Titans had problems with the Colts both times LAST year, and I don't trust the Titans pass defense. Which should be understandable, considering it was atrocious last year. When you combine a rejuvenated James with one of the top two passing units in the league, the defense is going to have to focus its energy on stopping one at the expense of the other. Problem is, they don't have the personnel to do such a thing. The Colts will take this one for this reason, as well as the personal belief that a team this good will not open the year 0-2.
PICK: Colts

WASHINGTON (-3) at NEW YORK GIANTS

Note to everyone: bet against the Giants until further notice. The Giants, who played about as miserably as a team can play against an opponent last week, limp into this week's game against Washington with no answers offensively, offensive line problems (still), a defense that couldn't hold anyone in check, and now a starting DB (Omar Stoutmire) out for the year with a torn ACL. As if all THAT wasn't bad enough, Tom Coughlin has asked that the team arrive at the stadium no later than August 12, 1988.

[Side note: Tom Coughlin is dreaming if he thinks this is the way to get the most out of these guys. Having lived in the NJ/NY area my entire life, I can honestly say that there has rarely been a team in any sport with as little fortitude as this sorry bunch.]

Washingtonians are still reveling in Joe Gibbs' "Ali-like" return to the ring, and for good reason. The Skins finally may be a real team, and not just a collection of overpaid ex-Jets. Anyone who thinks the Giants will either A) Win this game, or B) Lose this game by 3 points or less, needs to take the money off the table, open the wallet, put the money into the wallet, put the wallet back into the pocket, and never consider placing another bet for the rest of his or her life.
PICK: Redskins

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Washington