I know a lot of people are dafting within the next couple of days so I thought I would just start typing a lot of different thoughts of what I am thinking as I approach my own drafts.

As I comb through mounds and mounds of data to help me publish projections, I still think back to some of my best fantasy rosters when I went in a short list of guys I wanted to nab. Yes we are talking pre-VBD days where I had a Cheatsheet and about 20 players highlighted that I positively wanted on my team. I did not care that every player had value. I wanted these guys. Yes I am a VBD convert now and I take the projections I create at Footballguys.com very seriously, but...

Sometimes you just have to follow your gut.

Below is a list of players, strategies and just random thoughts that are buzzing in my head. And as Joe and I have set out to do all year long, we want you to know what we know. So here goes...

Quarterbacks:

This is the deepest I have ever seen the quarterback position. Although I love Culpepper and Manning as much as the next guy, I am convinced that you should wait until the middle rounds to grab a QB. I love Matt Hasselbeck (ADP = 51), Trent Green (ADP 60), Brett Favre (ADP = 77) and Tom Brady (ADP = 80) as solid quarterbacks you can get while concentrating on grabbing stud RB/WRs in the first 5 rounds of the draft. Guys like Gannon (ADP = 124), Mark Brunell (ADP = 130), Carson Palmer (ADP = 132) and Tim Rattay (ADP = 162) are unbelievable bargains and could all be Top 10 by the end of the year if everything falls right. Let others grab a QB early. I will be grabbing a mid-range guy (Hasselbeck, Green, Favre, Brady) and then add a QB with potential late (Gannon, Brunell, Palmer, Rattay) in every draft I am in this year.

I see bust written all over Michael Vick this season. He enter ths year with an injured hamstring and without playing much in the Falcon's version of the West Coast offense. Historically he has had an awful completion percentage, but makes up for that with his legs. But with an injured hamstring, you have to wonder how much he will even be able to do. Add to this, rookie Matt Schaub has looked awesome this pre-season and the team might be quick to let Vick completely heal. Michael Vick would have to get to the seventh round before I would even consider picking him in a draft this year. Thankfully, every league will take him before that.

Jeff Garcia is a huge upgrade in Cleveland, but I am not convinced he can last the whole season with the Offensive Line the Browns have right now. Look for him to take the beating of his life this season. Not an ideal situation for a person with a bulging disk in his back. Suffice it to say, he is not someone I will be targeting.

A lot of people are seeing a breakout year from Byron Leftwich. I am not buying it. He looks like he needs another year of seasoning to me. The fact that he has inexperienced rookies vying for starting WR roles, is still a tad chubby in my eyes and makes some awful throws tells me this isn't Leftwich's year.

Don't be the guy that drafts Kurt Warner. Although he has outplayed Eli Manning, he still makes a lot of errors. And this with defenses not showing full blitz packages right now. I expect him to get shelled in the opener at Philadelphia and won't be surprised if Eli Manning is behind center from about week 3 on.

Kyle Boller is going to surprise people this year as an NFL quarterback. He still will not be very good as a fantasy QB, but will have a pretty good passer rating and will manage the team very well. I am still not sure he is worth a pick except in the deepest leagues, but he will have a few huge games when the Ravens get behind early.

Running Backs:

Eddie George is awful. He is actually worse than that, but we run a PG-rated website. I am convinced that Parcells knows this too and Eddie will be on a very short leash. Make no mistake about it. This team is going to rely on Julius Jones and Richie Anderson a lot this season. Don't be the guy that is tempted to add Eddie George to your roster regardless of the value. He may start for a couple of weeks and possibly even have some limited Zach Crockett TD vulture role throughout the season, but I still believe he will be a wasted roster spot in all but the deepest leagues.

I am calling it right now. Tatum Bell is a wasted roster spot this season. The fact that he requires an 8th round pick makes him an awful value in my eyes. Quentin Griffin has played well and is the clear starter for the Broncos. he will have to get injured to lose that spot in my opinion. Garrison Hearst is a capable backup for now. Although Bell is likely the future in Denver, his slow start (holdout + broken hand + inability to pickup the blitz effectively) means a lot of bodies have to get hurt before he would see any real role in the offense in my opinion. Before Mike Anderson went down, Bell was worthless. Now he is just another over-priced pick.

As for calls, here is another one. Duce Staley will be the key ingredient to many fantasy championships this year. The Steelers Offensive Line looks very good + Duce can catch. In leagues that reward 1 point per reception (like the WCOFF), Duce is a must for your team. Just as Eddie George is done, Jerome Bettis is almost done. Look for Duce Staley to see a lot of touches and exceed his ADP of 39 easily.

Jamal Lewis will play the whole season unless the Ravens are terrible. Billick stated earlier that Jamal would need to practice during the week to play on Sunday. But after a quick owner meeting, Billick softened his stance immensely. The Ravens believe they can WIN IT ALL this year hence the signing of Neon Deion (not sure he is the answer, but I do believe they think it was a great signing). I am fairly certain that Jamal Lewis is the starter regardless if he practices or not (ala Kobe Bryant). It will be this way because the owner wants to win at all costs. I still expect some sort of delay in the proceedings too, but even without a delay I expect Jamal Lewis to start every single provided he does not get injured.

If Edgerrin James can stay healthy, he will add fuel to the fire that people play harder in contract years. At just 25 years old, James could be in for a huge season.

Priest Holmes should be the number 1 pick again this year regardless of scoring criteria. Tomlinson is the better NFL player, but the Chiefs are substantially a better team. Last year Holmes set and reached his goal to get the TD record. This year he says he wants 2,000 yards. I don't care what his age is. I am not going to bet against him. I expect another outstanding season from Priest Holmes.

If Chris Brown gets the same workload as Eddie George used to get (320+ carries), he probably will be a Top 10 back this year. Every preseason a few players catch your eye. Yes I know these games are useless, but I like to see players who hit the hole hard and are in great shape. Chris Brown has caught a lot of people's eye this preseason. He isn't cheap (ADP = 30), but will likely be much better or break down this season. If you like boom/bust players, Brown should be someone you covet. I don't think Antowain Smith is a threat to steal many carries so this really comes down to the question, Can Chris Brown run the ball 320 times? If he can, owners will be smiling with a probable Top 10 player.

I am not ready to annoit Quentin Griffin as the next Barry Sanders, but he looks very good for being only 5'8". He has another gear that most backs do not have. He also has ankle-breaking cutbacks. He is the best back in Denver right now and could be in for a huge season. Denver has a history of producing quality RBs. Quentin Griffin might not follow the exact physical formula, but his cutback ability fits perfectly with the offensive line blocking schemes. The fact that Shanahan pulled the trigger so quickly for the Portis for Champ Bailey trade should be all the proof you need. Everything I hear about Quentin Griffin is that he studies hard and does not make mistakes. Shanahan loved him instantly last year and I think it will take an injury for him to lose his stranglehold on the starting position. Said another way...This is not Tatum Bell's year.

Willis McGahee looks slow to me. He has his incredible vision back, but he is not as good as Travis Henry right now. Next year will likely yield a different result, but for now I don't see this as 1 and 1A. I see this as Travis Henry is much better than Willis McGahee as we start the season. I expect Willis McGahee to be a HUGE reach in virtually all leagues this year. He has an ADP of 73...Ouch. Don't be the fool that grabs him and watches him sit for most of the season. He will get some carries every week, but nothing worthwhile of a starting position. he could see an increased role at the end of the year if the Bills have a terrible win/loss record.

Ron Dayne's showing on a couple of ESPN highlights should be Tiki Barber's gain this year. Ron Dayne is in the best shape of his life, but he still isn't very good. In my opinion, Dayne got a ton of work, because of the team's concern that Barber might not be able to shake his fumbling woes. The fact that Dayne sucks at the goal line and has fumbled often this preseason tells me Tiki Barber will see the field way more than the split the coaches keep telling the media. Let someone else draft the new Ron Dayne. I will take Tiki Barber to outperform his ADP of 33.

Kevan Barlow is the real deal. End of story. Yes the 49ers look awful, but Barlow will be a huge factor on the ground and in the air. And with no one to vulture touches at RB, he has a chance at huge RB numbers.

Curtis Martin may be old, but he is the unquestioned starter on a team that looks like it will move the chains well this season. Right now he is being drafted as the 24th RB. He should beat that easily in my opinion. Despite a lot of complaining for more playing time, Lamont Jordan just isn't good enough to cut into Martin's playing time.

Marshall Faulk is going to breakdown again this year. The question is will he better his draft position (ADP = 13). I am guessing he won't. I also don't like Steven Jackson's draft position (ADP = 65) especially with the offensive line woes this year. My advice would be to AVOID ALL RAMS THIS YEAR. They are being drafted on reputation and most will not perform to their ADPs.

The Minnesota Vikings will likely lead the league in rushing yardage this season. The question is what back(s) do you need to capitalize on that. I still believe Onterrio Smith might be their best back, but multiple drug offenses already tells me the team isn't going to game-plan around him. His maturity issues are going to keep him from being the starter this season. Michael Bennett is the starter, but already will miss at least 1 week due to injury. He has not been the most durable player either so he may miss more time this season. Moe Williams is a great plugger and likely will outperform his ADP by a wide margin especially in leagues awarding 1 point per reception. Bottom line though is this team will be very effective running behind a massive offensive line.

Lee Suggs is a lot better than William Green. This "competition" wreaks of the Browns trying not to shatter the confidence of William Green. Lee Suggs has outplayed him at every turn. I would be shocked if Suggs is not the starter for this team all season long.

I think Michael Pittman is a better back than Charlie Garner. I think Gruden might agree with me too. Pittman is definitely worth a late round gamble and could be a huge value if he finds an increased role after his suspension.

Warrick Dunn is a much better fit than TJ Duckett in Atlanta's West Coast Offense. Fantasy players counting on TJ Duckett to have a similar year as 2003 are in for a very rude awakening. In my opinion, Dunn is another key to winning the WCOFF this year. He is going to catch a lot of passes and be the primary ball carrier between the 20s. At an ADP of 62, Dunn is possibly the Steal of the Draft. Mark it down.

Travis Minor sucks. That's all you need to know. The Dolphin's do not have a good offensive line so don't expect any back to do much. Sammy Morris, Minor and likely some late scrub signing will combine for a woeful rushing attack. Avoid them all.

Tyrone Wheatley is going to break-down. He is nearing Social Security age. He could not get through a season in his prime. He has been a backup for a long time. This is a fiasco waiting to happen. Dismiss all the glowing reports out of camp. They won't last when he starts getting hit a lot. Wheatley, Fargas, Zereoue, JR Redmond and Zach Crockett will all see time at RB. None of these players will have value this season.

I think the Bengals kept the better back in Rudi Johnson. He continues to shine, but comes with a lofty draft position too. Call me a skeptic, but I am not sold that Corey Dillon is now a team player and is ready for a breakout season with the Patriots. I see him struggling and ending up with a mediocre year. With an ADP of 15, I know Dillon won't be on any of my teams this year. He could be the running back bust of the year.

Fantasy Football is all about staying healthy and having the opportunity. Brian Westbrook gets the opportunity. Can he stay healthy? If he can play in just 14 games, he should surpass his expectations as the 17th best running back. He is not likely to repeat all of his TDs from last year, but he will definitely pile on the yards as long as he stays on the field.

Wide Receivers

I am amazed at Jerry Rice's ADP of 154. That is a joke. I will take Jerry Rice at age 65 to better that ADP. He won't be a top 15 WR this year, but it is a safe bet that 50 won't be better than him.

Speaking of no love. Eddie Kennison sits at WR #47 (ADP = 135). The last I checked he is the #1 WR on a passing attack that should be close to 4,000 yards. Holmes and Gonzales will get their share of those yards, but so will Eddie Kennison. He is someone I target in every draft.

The Marty Booker trade to Miami is likely to create some great values at WR in Chicago. My bet is on Justin Gage to emerge as the team's best WR, but right now David Terrell (lifetime bust so far) and Bobby Wade hold the starting positions. At an ADP of 164, Gage is worth a flyer, but he could still be a year away from being a viable fantasy starter.

Speaking of Marty Booker - He will be a huge bust with the Dolphins in my opinion. He is someone I would avoid at virtually any price. At an ADP of 80, this one is as easy as it gets. He won't be worth anything close to that value.

I think Chad Johnson might be the best WR in the league. I know that won't sit well with Moss and Harrison followers, but Chad Johnson has mad skills. If he is not the best, he is very close. His work ethic is among the best in the league too. Some people are expecting Chad Johnson to dropoff with the change to Carson Palmer at QB. I expect Chad Johnson to be even a bigger factor (if that is possible) this season. I am calling it here: I will not be the least bit surprised when Chad Johnson is the #1 fantasy WR this season. He is that good. Palmer is better than Kitna with the long ball and Johnson will be the recipient of many of those long passes.

Joe Horn's skills are diminishing. At age 32, I expect Horn to stumble bigtime this year. His yards per catch was a dismal 12.47 and has dropped the last three seasons. Those expecting him to perform near his WR8 billing are in for a rude awakening in my opinion.

Larry Fitzgerald will be the rookie of the year if he can stay on the field. Denny Green will see to it that he is forced the ball at every opportunity. With Anquan Boldin out for half of the year and a dismal Cardinal defense, Fitzgerald is sure to get a lot of targets despite his rookie status.

Donald Driver is a lot better than Robert Ferguson. Driver might even end up with better fantasy numbers than Javon Walker (as teams double Walker). At an ADP of 103, Driver is a lot more likely to be on my roster than the over-priced Javon Walker (ADP of 59).

Brandon Lloyd is the reason the 49ers let Terrell Owens AND Tai Streets go in the offseason. He will play in TO's spot in the offense. I believe he has a chance at top 15 numbers. As the 32nd WR off the board (ADP = 88) he looks like a great bargain to me. Outside of the Bay Area, this guy is mostly unknown. He could easily be among the best values had for patient drafters.

Ashley Lelie is starting to look like a bust to me. He is great in the open field, but struggles when people jam him at the line of scrimmage. Suffice it to say, everyone jams him at the line now. The Broncos continue to say he is WR #2, but I won't be shocked when the more physical Darrius Watts grabs that spot. Watts has shined in the pre-season and looks like a better fit in the offense.

Charles Rogers looks ready to explode into an elite receiver this season. He has been climbing our rankings every week. He is expensive at WR18, but looks like a special player.

Justin McCareins is going to cut into Santana Moss's production especially in the TD department. We like both players, but no way does Santana Moss get 10 TDs again.

Add Ike Hilliard to the veteran list getting no love this season. At an ADP of 166, it is safe to say he is a great value pick despite the uncertainty at QB for the Giants.

I think Nate Burleson is a better player than Marcus Robinson. So even when Marcus Robinson returns from injury, I do not expect him to beat out Nate Burleson for the WR #2 spot. Burleson is flying way below the radar in most drafts.

Tight Ends

With all of the injured Kansas City WRs, Gonzalez is even more valuable this season (if that is possible). At ADP = 37, he actually represents solid value. It is rare that a top position player represents value.

Jeremy Shockey might be talented, but his injuries and lack of TDs make him worthless on my draft board. The fact that he enters this season already dinged up tells you all you need to know. Just let someone else get him and wonder every week whether he will go or not.

Daniel Graham is a stud. Don't let New England's 1st round draft pick of Ben Watson steer you away from grabbing Daniel Graham. Graham used that selection as motivation and as been turning heads all camp. He is primed to have a great year. Ben Watson looks overwhelmed (which is pretty common for TEs in their first season)

Todd Heap is the best WR on the Ravens. Oh that's right, he is their TE. But I stand behind my statement that Heap is the best receiver on this team. The Raven are expected to introduce all kinds of new looks for Heap. I expect a huge year.

While Boldin is out, look for the Cardinals to use Freddie Jones a lot while Anquan Boldin is sidelined. He is great value at ADP = 127.

Desmond Clark might have been the biggest beneficiary when the team traded away Marty Booker. Look for him to have an expanded role this year. He is flying way under the radar due to being limited most of this preseason. But he is the unquestioned TE #1 on the Bears this season. He is someone I try and get every draft.

Ok, my brain feels better for releasing all of that. Best of luck everyone in your coming drafts.

Note: Average Draft Position (ADP) info was obtained from Antsports.com from drafts completed after 8/20.